National polls mean nothing. It is battleground swing state polls that matter more.
Polls this year are all over the place. This is because of the very unique nature of this election.
1] Polls and people are failing to account for the fact that there is a "war time" mood in America, and this can cause traditional indictators to be way off. (see Truman)
2] Bush is clearly ahead in voter confidence when it comes to terror, yet his approval rating is weak.
3] Kerry, no matter what he has done, has failed to ever pull away from Bush.
4] Bush for the first time ever, has pulled away more Black and Women voters from a Democrat then ever.
5] The Democrats have succeeded in registering and mobilizing the biggest election assault of all time.
6] Conservatives and Republicans tend to be the quiet majority, while liberals and democrats tend to be the loud minority.
7] Many media sources are intentionally keeping the election closer than it really is. In todays cable NEWS TV 24/7/365 coverage for short-attention span Americans, a close election mixed with "breaking news" for every little thing is needed to keep eyes on the tube.
8] The NRA and gun owners are AGAIN being underestimated terribly by both campaigns and by the media.
9] While Bush has none of the traditional indicators of winning, this is a war time American atmosphere and Kerry is no alternative (proved because Kerry can't pull ahead), therefore things once thought to be crucial to a win are not valid this year. AKA, certain "records" or "trends" will not apply.
10] An interesting study showed that Bush supporters were 5x as likely as Kerry supporters to DENY that they support Bush publicly or when asked. All because of the overwhelming brownshirt style liberal media assault on the NOTION of even liking Bush.
11] States that were always hard-core liberal havens are borderline states now. NJ, Hawaii, Minnesota et al....they are not in Bush's corner by any stretch, but they are not solid for the Kerry as they have been for any other Democrat before.
When you add it all up, it just doesn't add up. I think Bush will win, and by a little more than what the media claims. While Bush doesn't have the historical indicators of winning, the War on Terror negates those influences on America. Things like approval rating, market going up or down from labor day to election day etc....
Kerry on the otherhand, is losing 2x as many minority votes, and lost the 11pt Women voter lead Gore had. That alone is extremely devistating. All while he has no steady strong states other than NY, Mass and Cali.
Bush will win.Don't leave it to chance GO VOTE!!!!!!!!!!!!!