User Panel
User Panel
User Panel
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 6:46:45 AM EDT
Kerry 243 Bush 280 So he grabs on to the one poll that Shows Kerry ahead in Florida... uh huh... Looking good boys, looking food! Realclearpolitics poll summary
Nope, Zogby isn't whoring for Kerry... Iowa Political Futures   Tradesports  The markets they are bouncing back... Realclearpolitics Electoral Map  Kerry 207 Bush 232 Gentlemen we have momentum going into the weekend, the Osama tape works for us. Expect to see the media spin Zogby's numbers as a Kerry surge. There isn't one people, he had it. Bush is on the move and terror is in the forefront. Not a single national poll shows Kerry remotely close on this issue and this is the issue on people's minds! |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 6:52:41 AM EDT
[#1]
Seems like the larger sample sizes go to Bush. Zogby is the only one with a fairly large sample size that does not. If he is including Friday night numbers that could explain the Bush drop. I'd expect to see Bush maintaining a 1 point lead in Rasmussen this weekend because of the weekend polling.
ETA: Yep, Zogby is the only one with a sample size of over 1k that is showing a Kerry lead or a tie. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 6:53:47 AM EDT
[#2]
That was the first thing that jumped out at me when I opened up EV this morning. He's grasping for straws  I wonder about Michagan though. Add the FL 27 and you end up with 307 EC Votes. Not bad, but I think it is going to be higher, in the 320+ range. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 7:03:13 AM EDT
[#3]
+1 Also add Hawaii, they wouldn't send the VP that far if they didn't think they could get it. 
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 7:06:23 AM EDT
[#4]
Bush can win without Florida!
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 7:17:51 AM EDT
[#5]
I predict that Bush will get 336 electoral votes. I think he will win the following states:
AK, HI, AZ, NM, NV, UT, TX, CO, ID, WY, MT, OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, IA, MO, AR, LA, MS, AL, GA, FL, SC, NC, TN, KY, VA, WV, OH, IN, MI, PA, NJ, NH. Kerry will get: CA, OR, WA, MN, WI, IL, NY, DE, VT, DC, MD, CT, RI, MA, ME. This is based on past history. Florida is looking very promising, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and New Hamshire have been for Bush much of the time, etc. This is a somewhat pessimistic list as far as I'm concerned. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 7:20:46 AM EDT
[#6]
I love that even this leftie website has Bush winning. I feel a lot more secure.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 7:21:39 AM EDT
[#7]
What's funny is he thinks Kerry is going to pull it out on his final map. I can't wait for next Wednesday.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 7:51:16 AM EDT
[#8]
Are these all post bin Laden tape polls or were some of them polled before the tape had come out?
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 7:54:13 AM EDT
[#9]
my GUESS is that this data comes BEFORE the Bin Laden tapes came out.
only a guess....... |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:08:54 AM EDT
[#10]
I don't think that it will be over by Wednesday. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:09:09 AM EDT
[#11]
Looks like my Rasmussen prediction was right. It has Bush at 47.9 and Kerry at 47.1. With leaners it has W at 48.8 and JK at 48.3. Its Friday night polling that did this. I trust Friday afternoons numbers more than I trust today's.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:11:36 AM EDT
[#12]
Friday nights numbers MIGHT have included the Bin Laden tape, but fewer Republicans are home Friday night and we usually have a steep drop over the weekend. Guys look at the futures market, this is the most timely snapshot of the electorate as people are putting their money where their beliefs are and there is no bias introduced by time of day or by how questions are phrased.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:13:02 AM EDT
[#13]
Wall Street also loved the Bin Laden tape, the upsurge was almost instintanious. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:14:09 AM EDT
[#14]
I doubt the Bin Laden tape had any affect on Friday's numbers. It was released at a time normal Americans stop paying attention to the news and start paying attention to the weekend. Especially this weekend with Halloween, parties, school dances, high school football, etc.
I'm afraid the next three days worth of polling data isn't going to be worth a shit. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:15:48 AM EDT
[#15]
dport you are right in many ways... bottom line, Kerry's surge is dead and the Osama tape is going to break leaners to Bush... especially mothers.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:18:22 AM EDT
[#16]
Remember the polling data prior to the last election was wrong by about two to five points, depending on the source, mainly because of the late-breaking Bush DUI story and the polling over the weekend didn't pick it up. I think this story is going to have the opposite effect for Bush this year, and I don't expect the pollsters to pick it up this year either. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:18:27 AM EDT
[#17]
Ding Dong Kerry's Career is dead.......
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:19:46 AM EDT
[#18]
Thnaks for the info.
While out & about this morning, I saw two small houses up in the old section of town. One homeowner had their Bush/Cheny sign out front, the other homeowner had pulled their Kerry/Edwards sign up and put it next to their trash can. I hope it's a symbol of what's to come. Scott |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:21:41 AM EDT
[#19]
He'll still be a senator.  Any State that elects Ted Kennedy in perpetuity will keep Kerry drawing a .gov check, forever.
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:23:34 AM EDT
[#20]
I'll be glad when Tuesday is over with
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:23:59 AM EDT
[#21]
DON'T GET COMPLACENT... GO OUT AND VOTE !!!
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:24:36 AM EDT
[#22]
Hiram, what's your take on Ohio.
All the Ohio polls are looking bad, at first glance. Are they rolling polls? _________________________________________________________________________________ As an aside, you guys would not believe the amount of van rentals going out for the Republican party this week. I work for a rental company in Columbus, at the airport. They are more organized than I have ever seen or heard mentioned. There are volunteers in town from nearly every state in the country. And the folks coming in are pretty good lookin, motivated folks. Which stands to reason, since they flew into the state on their own dime (most of them, I would suspect paid for themselves). Bush Cheney has the common sense to purchase fleet insurance to cover their rentals. (with the exception of the election day vans, which are driven by anyone and everyone) The Dem's have been purchasing complete coverage on every rental, for the past 6 months, to the tune of about $45/day (the insurance, not including the rental cost). I look at it like this... it just means the Dems can run less ads because they are wasting money on car rental insurance. And my bonuses are larger. Don't say Kerry never did anything for me. Contrast that with Dem's, who are also renting vans, but are looking pretty damn rough when they come in. They look like they went down to the ghetto to pick up volunteers. Out of about 40 rented cars, 2 have been impounded with drug charges, so far. One was "given" to a friend, and recovered in Pennsylvania, full of pot. Both cars were recovered trashed, and looking as though the drivers were living out of the cars. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:28:26 AM EDT
[#23]
A big +1! |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:37:09 AM EDT
[#24]
Dude, you need to feed that story to the local gossip reporters in the paper... Every paper has a political reporter who just loves dish like that! I'll look into Ohio. I don't get to see the state committee's internal numbers, but I'll see if I canfind anybody who has. Last contact with anybody in BC04 was a couple days ago and they said they are very confident in what they are seeing. I'm a bit off my game as I spent 2 1/2 hours in the dentist's chair yesterday and had a tooth ground to hell and a couple pins screwed into my jaw to support the crown that goes in four weeks from now. The upside is I have a silver temporary crown on my #4 incisor... so I'm all blinged up for election day! |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:39:48 AM EDT
[#25]
For the time being, maybe these will help hold you until I can find something else
The two most recent polls are Zogby and Mason Dixon (with perhaps the best state polling record) and they are showing Bush up in Ohio. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:40:18 AM EDT
[#26]
That makes my mouth hurt just reading it.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:42:24 AM EDT
[#27]
Don't want to be too negitive here, but one thing that can never be factored in poles is fraud.
Fraud is such a rampent issue (much more than reported) All they have to do is get bus loads of people and drive them from polling station to station spending the entire day voting, and you just have to do this in the couple of battle ground states. We get WI local TV, and IIRC there are NO real checks to insure someone is who they say they are or is voting where they should, or not voting twice. The media has really dropped the ball on this story (big suprise). Remember dead people vote Democrat over Republican by 10 to 1. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:43:40 AM EDT
[#28]
OK, it looks like you are looking at the same poll I looked at last night... RealClearPolitics' conglomeration of state polls. Yesterday they had Kerry up by 2.5% Today, Kerry up by .5% It does worry me, because of fraud, as I've mentioned before. I really find it hard to believe Bush isn't up by 5%, so when I see Kerry up by .5%, that is troubling. Does the LA TImes poll seem outrageous? If you take it out, the remaining polls look more promising. Could they be calling all northern Ohio area codes for their poll? |
||
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:44:05 AM EDT
[#29]
We have folks in place to cut way back on fraud... you'll never eliminate it, but we are being very aggressive on the issue this year.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:46:24 AM EDT
[#30]
LA Times... Kerry whore... Survey USA, need to research them but I thought I remembered that they are Dem backed (so many polling firms with similar names) and American Research Group is 100% Dem backed. Zogby is independent but is a left leaner and Mason Dixon is independent and has one hell of a track record. |
|||
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:47:29 AM EDT
[#31]
Can you give some indication of how that works? Hopefully it's not some Top Secret Op. Say you see a busload of folks come in. What do you do? Can you ask for ID in Ohio? Can you frag them? 
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:48:58 AM EDT
[#32]
If I have to fight my way to the polling booth shooting arab bombers as I go I will be there and I will be voting for Bush. He's not my favorite president of all time but he light years better than that fucking dishonerable, lieing, two faced, piece of shit that the Dems are running. I do not want my country in his hands. |
||
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:50:32 AM EDT
[#33]
I disagree. Even with his flaws, Bush is one of the better, perhaps great (requires re-eelction and completion of project) Presidents, because he has a clear vision for the future, and has undertaken a monumental project, by attempting to clean up the Middle East. If he/we succeed(s), the rewards will be reaped for generations.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:55:21 AM EDT
[#34]
This poll is what is holding Bush back, and I don't understand why it is the way it is. Are people really that pessimistic? |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:57:06 AM EDT
[#35]
Larry I wish I knew every state's laws and what can be done. In NY what we do is ask their name and address, check the voter book which includes their name, address, DOB and has a photo copy of their signature upside down. They are then asked to sign their name for us to compare it... they are on the other side of the table looking at their signature so its very hard to try to duplicate on sight. If they are a first time voter they are asked to provide ID. I am very aggressive in my polling place. In fact four years ago the dims tried to have me arrested by the local cops, I called our lawyers before they got there and he showed up with the sheriffs. We had a little Mexican stand-off and the locals made a move to arrest me for obstruction and the sheriffs pointed out I was a state poll inspector executing my duties and they would be the ones obstructing... and the judge sitting on the bench that night happened to be a republican who would not be happy seeing me brought in for doing my job. They backed down and left. I had a local pull me over on the way home saying I was swerving and he thought I was drunk. No officer, I was at the polls at 4:30 and it was now 11:00 at night and I had been going non-stop. Fortunately the lawyer the party sent suspected this might happen and pulled up with a state trooper who said I wasn't drunk and to leave me alone. The local left and the lawyer drove me home followed by the Trooper to make sure I got home no problems. |
||
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:59:10 AM EDT
[#36]
I had the impression you were in Northern Ohio.
That's why I asked. That's what I get for assuming. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 9:00:17 AM EDT
[#37]
No buddy, capital region of NYS.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 9:03:27 AM EDT
[#38]
Best thing is, aparently, we don't need Florida!
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 9:07:09 AM EDT
[#39]
Yeah, but it seems like we'll get Florida easier than Ohio.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 9:09:52 AM EDT
[#40]
When Bill Clinton was re-elected in 1996 the "Right Direction" number was only 36 percent!! GunLvr |
||
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 9:13:08 AM EDT
[#41]
go bush |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 9:15:09 AM EDT
[#42]
That's a comfort. Sort of. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 9:17:57 AM EDT
[#43]
Look at his favorable/unfavorable ratio versus Kerry's. Look at his job approval which is in the high 40s to low 50s... While the numbers could be better, they aren;t the disaster that liberal pundits want you to believe,
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 9:18:22 AM EDT
[#44]
Voter fraud + land sharks = hung election. It isn't JUST the electoral college vote. It is also how close the votes are in each state.
I hope and pray that the President kicks Kerry's ass...but in every single race that is within say...5K votes...you will see the lawyers contesting it. During this period...Kerry will declare himself the winner and name his cabinet. At that point, we have all just entered the Twilight Zone...dropped a tab of acid and put on our Doors album. 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 9:22:30 AM EDT
[#45]
It dosen't matter though, Bush WILL take Florida!
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 11:01:51 AM EDT
[#46]
I pulled this from the horse race blog, its on polls
The Horserace Blog I think the polls as they stand now are what we should go with. I don't think Bin Laden will be picked up in the polls before Tuesday and using Hirams take on polls on weekends we should see the polls tied or Kerry ahead on Sunday and Monday. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 11:14:50 AM EDT
[#47]
Well, the Fox/Opinion Dunamics poll cam e in a little while ago. It showed Bush 47, Kerry 45.
It also showed that Kerry was ahead amongst women by One point and Bush was ahead amongst Men by Six. The only way the numbers can add up to Bush up by only two points was a gross oversampling of women. Screwey internals. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 11:43:31 AM EDT
[#48]
I have only one thing to say...
W |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 3:53:14 PM EDT
[#49]
Right track wrong track doesn't mean crap. All of the christian conservatives and people to the right of bush may think the country mis going in the wrong direction, but they sure as hell won't be voting for kerry. |
||
|
|
|
Posted: 10/30/2004 4:00:43 PM EDT
[#50]
I agree. Poised as few have ever been to get things done. |
|
|
|
Win a FREE Membership!
Sign up for the ARFCOM weekly newsletter and be entered to win a free ARFCOM membership. One new winner* is announced every week!
You will receive an email every Friday morning featuring the latest chatter from the hottest topics, breaking news surrounding legislation, as well as exclusive deals only available to ARFCOM email subscribers.
AR15.COM is the world's largest firearm community and is a gathering place for firearm enthusiasts of all types.
From hunters and military members, to competition shooters and general firearm enthusiasts, we welcome anyone who values and respects the way of the firearm.
Subscribe to our monthly Newsletter to receive firearm news, product discounts from your favorite Industry Partners, and more.
Copyright © 1996-2024 AR15.COM LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Any use of this content without express written consent is prohibited.
AR15.Com reserves the right to overwrite or replace any affiliate, commercial, or monetizable links, posted by users, with our own.
