Zogby says Kerry will win.

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[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Zogby says Kerry will win.

Posted: 10/29/2004 4:48:06 AM EDT

Lets prove this asshat wrong!

Posted: 10/29/2004 5:09:13 AM EDT

[#1]

Kerry 50 percent
Bush 48 percent

I fear he is right

Posted: 10/29/2004 5:10:35 AM EDT

[#2]

I hope not

Posted: 10/29/2004 5:14:25 AM EDT

[#3]

Every other national poll has Bush either leading or tied.

Just yesterday Zogby was saying that his original confidence that Kerry would win was GONE.

Also, it depends state-to-state.

I'm not ready to throw in the towel.

VOTE, people!

Posted: 10/29/2004 5:20:51 AM EDT

[#4]

Reuters/Zogby Tracking Poll.
General Election Trial Heat: Bush Kerry Nader
% %
10/25-27/04 48 46 1

I just heard on the radio that Zogby said Bush was going to win? WTF?

www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

Posted: 10/29/2004 5:23:32 AM EDT

[#5]

Something tells me that either a misunderstanding occurred, or someone leaked an OLD Zogby story.

It is true that way back, Zogby DID say he believed that Kerry would win. HOWEVER, as of yesterday, I heard him say on the radio that his original optimism was now GONE.

If illigb heard something like that this morning, then all the better!

Posted: 10/29/2004 5:24:02 AM EDT

[#6]

Paul Havey stated yesterday that the sports handicappers have been more accurate than polls have ever been since they've been keepin track of these stats........

I'd be more inclined to believe him and he says it'll be 60% to 30% with Bush kickin Kerrys' butt.

As for me, I invite ya to join me in helping turn this country around by voting for "NONE OF THE ABOVE".

It's time we started making a real choice, instead always picking the lesser or two evils.....or as my dad puts it "voting AGAINST someone", instead of for somebody.

Mike

Posted: 10/29/2004 5:24:05 AM EDT

[#7]

*yawn*

Posted: 10/29/2004 5:25:08 AM EDT

[#8]

Quoted:
Paul Havey stated yesterday that the sports handicappers have been more accurate than polls have ever been since they've been keepin track of these stats........

I'd be more inclined to believe him and he says it'll be 60% to 30% with Bush kickin Kerrys' butt.

As for me, I invite ya to join me in helping turn this country around by voting for "NONE OF THE ABOVE".

It's time we started making a real choice, instead always picking the lesser or two evils.....or as my dad puts it "voting AGAINST someone", instead of for somebody.

Mike

don't use my freedom as bargaining tools for your principles......

Posted: 10/29/2004 5:26:42 AM EDT

[#9]

Quoted:
Paul Havey stated yesterday that the sports handicappers have been more accurate than polls have ever been since they've been keepin track of these stats........

I'd be more inclined to believe him and he says it'll be 60% to 30% with Bush kickin Kerrys' butt.

As for me, I invite ya to join me in helping turn this country around by voting for "NONE OF THE ABOVE".

It's time we started making a real choice, instead always picking the lesser or two evils.....or as my dad puts it "voting AGAINST someone", instead of for somebody.

Mike

Many here rebuke that concept ---

I like it --

It needs done.

BOTH parties need a wake up call.

Posted: 10/29/2004 5:30:43 AM EDT

[#10]

Quoted:
Kerry 50 percent
Bush 48 percent

I fear he is right

Is that with vote fraud factored in or without?

Posted: 10/29/2004 5:33:56 AM EDT

[#11]

I am going to vote for Bush, too, but I sure can sympathize with those who vote third party.

The powers that be offer two candidates from the major parties. They are far more alike than they differ.

Bush is actually the equivalent of an old style democrat.

Any candidate who stands for real change can't get nominated by either major party and thus the people are told "If you vote for a third party candidate your vote is wasted."

They have us right where they want us.

Posted: 10/29/2004 5:33:57 AM EDT

[#12]

Hell, I'm hoping Zogby says Kerry %75 - %20. That way all the lazy ass Kerry supporters will stay their dead asses at home thinking the election is in the bag leaving the polls clear for Bush supporters to put in the landslide vote.

I put no faith in polls of any kind. No one has polled me, I'm registered Independant and I've gotten enough campaign literature to fuel my home all winter and enough pre-recorded campaign messages to make a greatest hits album set.

You know what I think? I see a few cars around town with Kerry stickers, not many with Bush stickers. Anyone with a Bush sticker stands a chance of having their car vandalized. So those with Kerry stickers are Kerry voters and all the rest are Bush voters. Furthermore, I haven't met one Kerry supporter yet, YET! that wasn't some kind of left wing militant hippie freak and it has had nothing to do with age or occupation. Lawyers, business men, writers, they have all been freaks, some 60-70 yo. freaks. Likewise I've met hard core partyline Democrats that have a brain and even they can't bring themselves to vote for Kerry.

I'll wait to see the numbers Tuesday night, that's my poll.

Posted: 10/29/2004 5:36:46 AM EDT

[#13]

zogby sucks

Posted: 10/29/2004 5:41:50 AM EDT

[#14]

Quoted:
Paul Havey stated yesterday that the sports handicappers have been more accurate than polls have ever been since they've been keepin track of these stats........

I'd be more inclined to believe him and he says it'll be 60% to 30% with Bush kickin Kerrys' butt.

As for me, I invite ya to join me in helping turn this country around by voting for "NONE OF THE ABOVE".

Well, I suppose you're right. Helping Kerry into office WILL indeed "turn this country around ".

It's time we started making a real choice, instead always picking the lesser or two evils.....or as my dad puts it "voting AGAINST someone", instead of for somebody.

Mike

Whether you admit it or not, your actions on November 2nd will determine whether Kerry of Bush get elected.

If you want Kerry to be elected, vote accordingly.
If you want Bush to be elected, vote accordingly.

Whether you decide to vote for Bush or kerry or Nader or Badnarik or YOURSELF...

THAT decision and that ACTION will go towards the election of either BUSH of KERRY.

Posted: 10/29/2004 5:48:15 AM EDT

[#15]

Quoted:
As for me, I invite ya to join me in helping turn this country around by voting for "NONE OF THE ABOVE".

It's time we started making a real choice, instead always picking the lesser or two evils.....or as my dad puts it "voting AGAINST someone", instead of for somebody.

Mike

Luckily for those of us with our eyes open, we know that President Bush isn't evil at all and we are voting for him rather than against Kerry.

Posted: 10/29/2004 6:03:33 AM EDT

[#16]

Write this with a black marker on your forehead.

"swonk yllaer ydobon"

Then look in the mirror everytime you ask this question.

Posted: 10/29/2004 6:04:08 AM EDT

[#17]

Quoted:
Quoted:
As for me, I invite ya to join me in helping turn this country around by voting for "NONE OF THE ABOVE".

It's time we started making a real choice, instead always picking the lesser or two evils.....or as my dad puts it "voting AGAINST someone", instead of for somebody.

Mike

Luckily for those of us with our eyes open, we know that President Bush isn't evil at all and we are voting for him rather than against Kerry.

+1

Posted: 10/29/2004 6:12:11 AM EDT

[#18]

Zogby sucks as a pollster... his methodolgy isn't shared by any other reputable pollster in the business and in the 2002 elections, he called 29% of the elections for the wrong guy (never mind the huge point discrepancy).

Check out this point from someone who spends some time doing this professionally:

Zogby: Back in 1996, pollster Zogby hit the bullseye in predicting the results of the Presidential election. In 2000, they were close again, though their aggregate error tied them with 5 other national polls. In 2002, Zogby appeared to show a lean in favor of the Democrats, and he was way off in his mid-term election predictions. This year, at the end of the spring, John Zogby actually came out and predicted John Kerry would win the election, which appeared to indicate his bias had reached the point of full-blown partisanship against the President, reflected in a growing number of opinions made out of personal preference, rather than on the evidence. Zogby’s refusal to show his work, only magnifies the apparent distortion of his results.

Zogby runs two polls; a telephone poll and an Interactive Internet poll. Unlike almost every other poll, Zogby’s telephone poll is not RDD. Zogby describes his list as follows: “The majority of telephone lists for polls and surveys are produced in the IT department at Zogby International. Vendor-supplied lists are used for regions with complicated specifications, e.g., some Congressional Districts. Customer-supplied lists are used for special projects like customer satisfaction surveys and organization membership surveys.
Telephone lists generated in our IT department are called from the 2002 version of a nationally published set of phone CDs of listed households, ordered by telephone number. Residential (or business) addresses are selected and then coded by region, where applicable. An appropriate replicate1 is generated from this parent list, applying the replicate algorithm repeatedly with a very large parent list, e.g., all of the US.
Acquired lists are tested for duplicates, coded for region, tested for regional coverage, and ordered by telephone, as needed.” Zogby notes that “regional quotas are employed to ensure adequate coverage nationwide.” That is, Zogby takes pains to insure that his respondent poll is not random.

As for his weighting, Zogby states “Reported frequencies and crosstabs are weighted using the appropriate demographic profile to provide a sample that best represents the targeted population from which the sample is drawn from. The proportions comprising the demographic profile are compiled from historical exit poll data, census data, and from Zogby International survey data.”

In other words, Zogby uses his own polls to drive some of his demographic parameters, a practice not approved, much less recommended, by either the NCPP or the AAPOR.

All in all, Zogby’s habit of confusing his personal opinion with data-driven conclusions, his admitted practice of manipulating the respondent pool and his demographic weights, by standards not accepted anywhere else, along with mixing Internet polls with telephone interview results, forces me to reject his polls as unacceptable; they simply cannot be verified, and I strongly warn the reader that there is no established benchmark for the Zogby reports, even using previous Zogby polls, because he has changed his practices from his own history.

Except for some specific polls whose practices earned remarks for their excellence or a distinct lack of it, I have tried not to rank or grade the polls. I would also recommend the reader read through the polls himself, to determine which is most thorough in its work and results. But hopefully, this guide will help sort through who is chasing the money, and who is serious about their work.

Source: polipundit.com/index.php?p=4176

Posted: 10/29/2004 6:19:30 AM EDT

[#19]

I heard a story on NPR yesterday about how early in the election Zogby had predicted Kerry to win, but recently he's changed his mind and is now predicting Bush to win.

Posted: 10/29/2004 6:20:03 AM EDT

[#20]

Quoted:
Something tells me that either a misunderstanding occurred, or someone leaked an OLD Zogby story.

It is true that way back, Zogby DID say he believed that Kerry would win. HOWEVER, as of yesterday, I heard him say on the radio that his original optimism was now GONE.

If illigb heard something like that this morning, then all the better!

Heard the same thing on pubic radio yesterday.

Posted: 10/29/2004 6:22:36 AM EDT

[#21]

Quoted:

As for me, I invite ya to join me in helping turn this country around by voting for "NONE OF THE ABOVE".

It's time we started making a real choice, instead always picking the lesser or two evils.....or as my dad puts it "voting AGAINST someone", instead of for somebody.

Mike

Wow. This is the first time I've ever read a post by you with which I disagreed. I do understand your point and would gladly cast a vote for a third-party candidate IF there was another candidate that was "electable" (hey, I just made up a new word.

). Casting a vote for someone who isn't even in the running IS a wasted vote IMHO.

All the people who voted for Perot in '92 helped elect Clinton. The Repubs & Demos didn't get much of a message either.

Posted: 10/29/2004 6:26:45 AM EDT

[#22]

Quoted:
I heard a story on NPR yesterday about how early in the election Zogby had predicted Kerry to win, but recently he's changed his mind and is now predicting Bush to win.

EXACTLY! NPR!

Man, you know afternoon talk-radio in New England SUCKS when all you've got is NPR!

Posted: 10/29/2004 6:28:46 AM EDT

[#23]

Quoted:
Quoted:
I heard a story on NPR yesterday about how early in the election Zogby had predicted Kerry to win, but recently he's changed his mind and is now predicting Bush to win.

EXACTLY! NPR!

Man, you know afternoon talk-radio in New England SUCKS when all you've got is NPR!

My problem is that the building I work in blocks AM radio, so all I can get is FM. Then the other problem is the damn firewall blocks most streaming internet radio. If I could only argue my way into a cube by the windows ...

Posted: 10/29/2004 6:33:01 AM EDT

[#24]

Yeah, I had heard him on several occasions say it seems like Bush has the momentum.

ALSO remember....he's a Kerry supporter. As legit as his process and models might be, when it's close enough he, like any human being, lets his opinion leak out. Recently the numbers are strong enough to tilt him to W.

Posted: 10/29/2004 6:33:25 AM EDT

[#25]

If you are listening to NPR, you're listening to the wrong voice! NPR is the most liberal POS I have ever heard!

DON"T SUBJECT YOURSELF TO THAT KIND OF TORTURE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted: 10/29/2004 6:37:14 AM EDT

[#26]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
I heard a story on NPR yesterday about how early in the election Zogby had predicted Kerry to win, but recently he's changed his mind and is now predicting Bush to win.

EXACTLY! NPR!

Man, you know afternoon talk-radio in New England SUCKS when all you've got is NPR!

My problem is that the building I work in blocks AM radio, so all I can get is FM. Then the other problem is the damn firewall blocks most streaming internet radio. If I could only argue my way into a cube by the windows ...

The NPR Zogby story....what was the date of the Zogby info? Is NPR being political and playing a Zogby prediction from Monday when the "missing explosives" story was making it's splash?

As far as radio....you can web stream to RUSH and SEAN.

Posted: 10/29/2004 6:41:34 AM EDT

[#27]

The story involved them either interviewing Zogby directly or discussing what he had said. (I honestly can't remember which.)

Anyway, they said something along the lines of "Pollster John Zogby had once made a confident prediction that Kerry would win. He claimed to day that his confidence in that prediction was now gone."

I'm sorry, but that's as close as I can get. I was busy trying not to get lost and reading roadsigns, but I DO remember a line very similar to the line above.

Posted: 10/29/2004 7:03:45 AM EDT

[#28]

Zogby is an ARAB!

WTF????

Posted: 10/29/2004 7:32:25 AM EDT

[#29]

Someone needs to change/edit the title of this thread - Zogby predicts Bush will win

Posted: 10/29/2004 7:36:23 AM EDT

[#30]

Quoted:
Hell, I'm hoping Zogby says Kerry %75 - %20. That way all the lazy ass Kerry supporters will stay their dead asses at home thinking the election is in the bag leaving the polls clear for Bush supporters to put in the landslide vote.

I put no faith in polls of any kind. No one has polled me, I'm registered Independant and I've gotten enough campaign literature to fuel my home all winter and enough pre-recorded campaign messages to make a greatest hits album set.

You know what I think? I see a few cars around town with Kerry stickers, not many with Bush stickers. Anyone with a Bush sticker stands a chance of having their car vandalized. So those with Kerry stickers are Kerry voters and all the rest are Bush voters. Furthermore, I haven't met one Kerry supporter yet, YET! that wasn't some kind of left wing militant hippie freak and it has had nothing to do with age or occupation. Lawyers, business men, writers, they have all been freaks, some 60-70 yo. freaks. Likewise I've met hard core partyline Democrats that have a brain and even they can't bring themselves to vote for Kerry.

I'll wait to see the numbers Tuesday night, that's my poll.

Shit, I live and work in Texas, we have a small contigient of idiots oops, democrats, working here. They generally keep there mouth shut though

.

Posted: 10/29/2004 7:37:47 AM EDT

[#31]

Quoted:
Kerry 50 percent
Bush 48 percent

I fear he is right

Want put a non-monitary bet on who will win?

Your account verses mine.

Sgtar15

Posted: 10/29/2004 7:45:34 AM EDT

[#32]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Kerry 50 percent
Bush 48 percent

I fear he is right

Want put a non-monitary bet on who will win?

Your account verses mine.

Sgtar15

S15ratg, I certainly hope you are right.
I think Bush wins, however, my problem comes with the fact that He had a 12 point margin in polls in FLA and won by 537 votes.

Lets hope it a landslide!

TXL

Posted: 10/29/2004 7:56:39 AM EDT

[#33]

Quoted:
Quoted:
As for me, I invite ya to join me in helping turn this country around by voting for "NONE OF THE ABOVE".

It's time we started making a real choice, instead always picking the lesser or two evils.....or as my dad puts it "voting AGAINST someone", instead of for somebody.

Mike

Luckily for those of us with our eyes open, we know that President Bush isn't evil at all and we are voting for him rather than against Kerry.

+1

Bush may not be perfect, but he's done 1 or 2 things I don't like (CFR & Medicare), and the rest is A++...

Plus, with the 'America Sucks, we're a mess, everything is rotten & terrible' campaign that Kerry has won, he does not deserve the Presidency, so even if I didn't think that GW is the 2nd coming of Ronald Reagan himself, I'd vote for him...

- Dave_A (Allready voted for Bush)

Posted: 10/29/2004 8:04:29 AM EDT

[#34]

Quoted:
As for me, I invite ya to join me in helping turn this country around by voting for "NONE OF THE ABOVE".

It's time we started making a real choice, instead always picking the lesser or two evils.....or as my dad puts it "voting AGAINST someone", instead of for somebody.

Mike

And while you're diddling around "turn(ing) this country around" there are SCOTUS appointments to be made. Real nice.

Posted: 10/29/2004 8:05:19 AM EDT

[#35]

Quoted:
Kerry 50 percent
Bush 48 percent

I fear he is right

You seem to have a lot of fear. You might want to seek help about that.

Posted: 10/29/2004 8:08:49 AM EDT

[#36]

Zogby is an Arab. Why does this surprise anyone?

Posted: 10/29/2004 8:28:28 AM EDT

[#37]

Quoted:
[

My problem is that the building I work in blocks AM radio, so all I can get is FM. Then the other problem is the damn firewall blocks most streaming internet radio. If I could only argue my way into a cube by the windows ...

you're okay as long as they don't take your STAPLER!!

Posted: 10/29/2004 8:31:37 AM EDT

[#38]

Zogby was quoted on Fox News that it is basically just a "hunch".

Posted: 10/29/2004 9:12:07 AM EDT

[#39]

I agree. I think Kerry will win - and could very well win BIG (by electoral votes).

I think "close" states will be stolen by Kerry (rampant voter fraud, lawsuits) and so I give absolutely NO benefit of the doubt to GWBush.

MY FINAL PREDICTION:

KERRY 311
GWBUSH 227

Kerry States:
California (55)
Conecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
DC (3)
Florida (27)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (21)
Iowa (7)
Maine (4)
Maryland (10)
Massachussetts (12)
Michigan (17)
New Hampshire (4)
New Jersey (15)
New Mexico (5)
New York (31)
Ohio (20)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (21)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Washington (11)
Wisconsin (10)

GWBush States:
Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arizona (10)
Arkansas (6)
Colorado (9)
Georgia (15)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (9)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (11)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
Nevada (5)
North Carolina (15)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (8)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (34)
Utah (5)
Virginia (13)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

Posted: 10/29/2004 9:34:08 AM EDT

[#40]

Quoted:
Kerry 50 percent
Bush 48 percent

I fear he is right

Don't know what you are talking about. You may want to check out this composite of polls, which still shows President Bush 2.4% up, and Zogby shows a tie.

Real Clear Politics

Posted: 10/29/2004 9:34:44 AM EDT

[#41]

Zogby says Kerry will win.

Oh... well that settles it then. Why even bother holding the election?

Zogby has decreed that the die is cast, so it must be so. Might as well turn in all our guns now & hoist the U.N. flag... save them the hassle of forcing our hand.

Yup, we are doomed.... Zogby says so.

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Zogby says Kerry will win.

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