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Hawai'i Poll: Bush, Kerry in dead heatBy Derrick DePledge
Advertiser Capitol Bureau
President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are deadlocked among likely voters in Hawai'i, a surprising boost for the Republican president in a state that many Democrats had considered safe for Kerry.
George W. Bush
John Kerry
The findings of the Honolulu Advertiser Hawai'i Poll suggest that Hawai'i's four electoral votes are in play with just over a week to go before the election. Nationally, other opinion polls have found that Bush and Kerry are essentially tied for the popular vote.
The Hawai'i Poll, taken among 600 likely voters statewide between Oct. 13 and Monday, had Bush at 43.3 percent and Kerry at 42.6 percent. The margin of error was 4 percentage points.
A large number of voters, 12 percent, said they were still undecided, giving supporters of both candidates hope during the final days of the campaign.
With the race so close, Hawai'i could be a factor in the election, which could energize get-out-the-vote drives across the Islands and increase voter turnout.
Although the candidates have concentrated mostly on large swing states such as Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, smaller states such as Iowa and New Hampshire — with seven and four electoral votes, respectively — have been important parts of the puzzle because many voters there are undecided. The winner needs 270 electoral votes.
"It is shocking," said Greg Gaydos, an associate professor of political science at Hawai'i Pacific University. "I'd say it's very bad news for Kerry if he's tied in a state like Hawai'i."
Hawai'i's strong Democratic tradition still makes the state favorable for Kerry, several political analysts said, but the Massachusetts Democrat has yet to capitalize even though many voters here appear uncomfortable with Bush over the war in Iraq.
the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2004/Oct/23/ln/ln05p.html