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Posted: 10/21/2004 4:29:30 AM EDT
Let's give him the benefot of the doubt and assume mommy sent him to bed before they were released...
  Kerry 271 Bush 257 But what clown boy apparently missed are these polls from one of the best and most reliable firms in the business...
A bit more good news, Zogby (the pollster that every Bush hater loves), is showing a slight uptick by the president after several days of tied percentages and coming off of a 4-4-2-2 lead over the weekend. Remember folks, Republicans polls worse on the weekends since we have lives and are out and about and not home to take phone calls. We perform strongest at the end of the work week after three successive days of non-weekend rolling polls. I expect to see a bigger uptick in Rasmussed today. Bush has been around 1.5 ahead the past two days there. As you can see, the electronic market is still leaning heavily toward Bush  Iowa Political Futures  Kerry 206 Bush 227 All in all, I think we look like we are in VERY good shape... all momentum seems to be moving in our direction right now. |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 4:29:56 AM EDT
[#1]
45 states.
SGatr15 |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 4:32:55 AM EDT
[#2]
I predict 330-350 EV for Bush
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Posted: 10/21/2004 4:33:30 AM EDT
[#3]
You know Sarge I am going to take great pleasure at laughing in your damn face when its not even close to that. Your 45 states comment is the kind of over-confidence that convinces people that they don't need to vote because its in the bag... and it is nowhere near in the bag. Once again, if you are so cock sure, put up a sizeable bet... let's say $100! If you're right, and so confident in your assessment, its easy money and you need not worry about all the other bets you have going. Since you won't take the bet I'll kindly ask you to leave your nonsense to other people's threads... preferably your own. I don't want anybody acting as if this race is a done deal. That kind of mindset loses elections. |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 4:36:39 AM EDT
[#4]
All right. I am sick of this map.
I heard on the radio this morning that a poll of MICHIGAN VOTERS has GWB in the lead 47 - 43. The margin of error is 5 points, so the radio host said that is a statistical tie. Why is Michigan solid blue on the map??? I am beginning to agree with SgtAR15s 45 states. That is all. Edit - Ahhh yes, there it is in your post HiramRanger - MI: Mitchell Research: Bush +4 |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 4:40:05 AM EDT
[#5]
Hiram.
it is not my intentions to make people stay at home. I feel strongly that this will be a landslide and refuse to have a pestimnistic defeatist attitude towards this election. I see your point but also feel that a defeatist attitude is just as detrimental. I don't want people to stay at home. Like you I believe this election will be won on turn out alone, so we must get out and vote. I don't want this election to just be a win, I want it to be a MANDATE from the AMerican people. And I believe it will be. So for you and your posts I will try to remember to add 45 states if we all get out and vote. How does that sound? SGatr15 |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 4:41:57 AM EDT
[#6]
Kerry is gonna win
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Posted: 10/21/2004 4:46:17 AM EDT
[#7]
You have chosen your username wisely, grasshopper. Yet it is hard to be as confident as the Sarge, either. |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 5:06:19 AM EDT
[#8]
But which person would you rather listen too? SGatr15 |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 5:08:48 AM EDT
[#9]
Im with SGatr15 when I say this: 54 STATES! |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 5:14:30 AM EDT
[#10]
 SGtar15 |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 5:41:01 AM EDT
[#11]
Sarge, as always a diplomat... deal my friend! 
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Posted: 10/21/2004 5:49:52 AM EDT
[#12]
This is why, everyone that is voting for Bush, needs to find one person that was or planned to vote for Bush, but probably won't because "they don't have time" and "help" them get to the polls. I don't agree that, if Kerry wins, everything will be alright. This truly is a turnnig point in our country. I don't like Bush or Kerry, but if Kerry get's in, we are screwed. We'll be at the mercy of the UN and if you want to see the best case senario if Kerry is elected, read, "Deraliction of Duty". Kerry hates the average American and thinks of us as his play things. To do what he want's with. Plain and simple. |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 5:49:58 AM EDT
[#13]
<---with Sarge on this one, for the same reasons.
45 states. A few pertinent words: Matthew 17:20 And Jesus said unto them, Because of your unbelief: for verily I say unto you, If ye have faith as a grain of mustard seed, ye shall say unto this mountain, Remove hence to yonder place; and it shall remove; and nothing shall be impossible unto you. Before we get lulled into a false sense of security over the elections, however, as HirmaRanger fears, I feel we should temper the above with this: James 2:26 For as the body without the spirit is dead, so faith without works is dead also. Have faith, my friends, that we will win this one......and use that faith as a base for work towards that end...... 45 states. |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 5:52:15 AM EDT
[#14]
And soon the movement began to grow....... SGatr15 |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 5:53:32 AM EDT
[#15]
Yoda says... "Two people a movement does not make... hmmmmm"
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Posted: 10/21/2004 5:55:24 AM EDT
[#16]
I'm really getting tired of these damn electorial maps. All they do is raise my blood pressure.
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Posted: 10/21/2004 5:56:17 AM EDT
[#17]
Then DON'T read them!
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Posted: 10/21/2004 5:58:16 AM EDT
[#18]
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Posted: 10/21/2004 5:58:52 AM EDT
[#19]
I've held reserved confidence that Michigan will go Bush. This is based on conversations with long time friends around me, many of them union/democrats all their lives.....they can't stand kerry. They believe Bush is a good president and will vote for him.
This article from the Detroit News is encouraging www.detnews.com/2004/politics/0410/21/a01-310989.htm here's the headline: News poll: Bush leads in Michigan State still up for grabs since president's support remains below critical 50 percent President Bush has moved ahead of Democratic challenger John Kerry in Michigan, according to a Detroit News poll, but hasn’t reached the critical 50 percent support plateau — suggesting the state remains in contention as the presidential race draws to a close. |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 6:12:32 AM EDT
[#20]
Yoad doesn't vote...fuck him and the AT-AT he rode in on.  SGtar15 |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 6:13:39 AM EDT
[#21]
I sense the Sarge is ready to break into alien porn... coming soon to a GD forum near you... 
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Posted: 10/21/2004 6:24:45 AM EDT
[#22]
One thing to consider is that if we think it will be close, we will all go out and vote. If we think we are way behind and bound to loose, or way ahead and bound to win, voting doesn't matter. It is when you are braking a possible tie that voting really counts. I aready voted. This time I voted strait Republican despite the fact that I'm registered Libertarian. I voted Bush/the Repub running against Boxer (anybody but Boxer!)/Randy Duke Cunningham (I really like Randy)/whatever Republican was running for the state house seat (we need to get as many Repubs into the state house as possible). |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 6:26:01 AM EDT
[#23]
45 states my ass. This is going to be close.
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Posted: 10/21/2004 6:30:12 AM EDT
[#24]
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Posted: 10/21/2004 6:49:01 AM EDT
[#25]
Thats great advice. Thanks!! |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 6:50:47 AM EDT
[#26]
YEAH GO CHEESEHEADS (wisconsin)
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Posted: 10/21/2004 6:52:20 AM EDT
[#27]
I predict lots of DUh riots and hatred following Ws re-election. Some really stupid people will be out in force
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Posted: 10/21/2004 7:10:16 AM EDT
[#28]
Are you from San Diego? I grew up in Point Loma. I had to leave Dec. 31, 2000 because I didn't care to join the "registry." You should check out Idaho. Two Republican Senators, Two Republican Representatives (only two House seats). |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 7:11:33 AM EDT
[#29]
Just to add fuel to the fire: 46 states, including CA. The more meaningful polls here are showing a statistical tie. Plus I saw a Bush/Cheney sign in Berkeley last weekend.
CW |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 7:13:44 AM EDT
[#30]
Are you declaring opening day is on Nov 3?
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Posted: 10/21/2004 7:22:45 AM EDT
[#31]
Lived here all but 6 years of my life. Welcome conservative gun owner. Don't change anything here and we will get along fine. Planerench out. |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 7:49:15 AM EDT
[#32]
The polling company that got the most races it projected in the last (2002) big elections RIGHT:
Mason-Dixon |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 7:53:03 AM EDT
[#33]
Yup, Mason-Dixon has the best rescent track record... and low and behold... the schmuck at electoral-vote is ignoring them... don't fit into his equation...
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Posted: 10/21/2004 10:03:31 AM EDT
[#34]
Yup, he has flown his bias flag for us all to see. It's a nice graphic - too bad it lacks integrity.
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Posted: 10/21/2004 1:05:42 PM EDT
[#35]
Why is he gonna win? Explain. |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 1:07:29 PM EDT
[#36]
Hiram,
I think slowly but surely, people are seeing that EV boy is really cherry-picking fast and loose with what data he uses. If he uses the Michigan data tommorow, he has to put Bush back over the magic number to elect. To add: Rasmussen had good numbers today and WaPo just put Bush up by 51 to 45 in their daily tracking. Only sucky poll was AP/Ipsos and they showed Bush down by three today and a couple of weeks ago they showed him down by four. www.realclearpolitics.com. |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 1:13:06 PM EDT
[#37]
Find my thread called "if you read only one..."
Great analysis in there. |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 1:15:00 PM EDT
[#38]
Saw it, I like Michael Barone.
I might also add that EV boy missed the Gallup Wisconsin numbers too. |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 1:18:09 PM EDT
[#39]
Vote early, vote often. |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 1:39:41 PM EDT
[#40]
Bush is trending in the right direction. I think that Wisconcin, Iowa, Michagan, Ohio will more than likely fall into Bush's column next week. He might even pick up Minnesota althoug that might be a stretch.
I think this will be close % wise but not electoraly close. I still think Bush will be around 300 to 320. This hopefully will slam the door on the dems declaring victory. |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 1:51:53 PM EDT
[#41]
If the rumored Mason-Dixon polls numbers for several battleground states prove right, the moonbats are going to have a very bad day tommorow.
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Posted: 10/21/2004 2:36:18 PM EDT
[#42]
You sound suspicious of Californians. After living in Id. for almost four years, I understand why. I hunt, fish, shoot, ride dirt bikes, and as many other activities, that they are trying to ban in California, as I can. I fear that even Idaho might someday try to do away with our right to engage in these lawful activities because of all the Californians and Washingtonians moving in. All I can say is go vote and consider donating to candidates that agree with your views. I donated to Bush, GOP, Thune, the guy running against Erskine Bowles, NRA-PVF, and a bunch of local conservatives (including Gerry Sweet, a staunch Id. gun rights politician, who is not in my district). I say this not to brag but to urge others to consider doing the same. If Daschle and Bowles lose, I think a lot of South Dakota and North Carolina gun owners should remind Thune and the other guy why they won -- I intend to and I don't live there, just sent money. Sorry for getting on the soap box but I would suspect that "we will get along fine." |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 2:45:02 PM EDT
[#43]
I made a movement and I am only one person, then I flushed the kerry down the turlet. |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 4:44:08 PM EDT
[#44]
I heard about this from the local news;
Channel One Election There is hope from today’s youth after all. Kali is still hopeless. 
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Posted: 10/21/2004 4:56:39 PM EDT
[#45]
Jesus Christ Giggle... that deserves its own thread... I'm gonna start one and YOU get the credit for making us aware!
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Posted: 10/21/2004 5:30:38 PM EDT
[#46]
WOW!! 
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Posted: 10/21/2004 5:35:36 PM EDT
[#47]
Sorry, but I don't see this election as being close. The news media and pollsters are spinning so damn hard for Kerry they are about ready to go into orbit. Kerry is showing signs of serious desperation. They are actiing like their internal polling is showing a major ass kicking on Nov 2nd.
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Posted: 10/21/2004 5:41:00 PM EDT
[#48]
Jerry Sweet goes to my church! |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 5:41:58 PM EDT
[#49]
With reservations, I am trying to be optomistic about the race.
Kerry truly is a nut-case, and there are Dem's voting for Bush. As Nov 2 gets closer and closer, I've seen Kerry become screwier and screwier. That makes me believe that he is desparate. It also makes me believe that many folks will go to the polls saying Kerry, but pressinfg the Bush button. 40-45 states may be the outcome. 300-320 Electoral votes seem possible. |
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Posted: 10/21/2004 5:45:55 PM EDT
[#50]
I agree. His goose hunt today I believe will show him for the phony oportunist that he is. He looked like Dukakis. Any REAL hunter is watching this and calling  |
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