Kerry is gonna win

While it is depressing to see so much blue, and sKerry leading in electoral votes. I take it now, like I took it when Bush was ahead. Not very serious. The final outcome will only be known on Nov. 2nd.

Quoted: Kerry is gonna win

....too much angst.

I wonder if Kerry wins the electoral vote and Bush wins the popular vote what all those people who were whining about Gore winning the popular vote will do.


Will the media have to call him "Mr. Kerry" for the next 4 years ?



Seriously, the only poll that counts is the one on Nov 2nd


4 more for Bush !

Although I don't share their defeatest attitude, I maintain my fear that Kerry could win.  I need my fear as it can be a motivator.  

Quoted: The clown that runs that site thinks Kerry is going to win Virginia AND North Carolina AND Arkansas AND Missouri...  Now Arkansas maybe, but the others?  Come on!

He's off his gourd. VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA?

He won't win EITHER!

This guy is NUTS!

But look at ALL of the information. Too many people let others tell them what to believe. I think Bush will win

I agree, I think Bush will win. To many polls show a Bush lead for the "map" to be right. But like I said,  the final outcome will only be known on Nov. 2nd.

Quoted: While it is depressing to see so much blue, and sKerry leading in electoral votes. I take it now, like I took it when Bush was ahead. Not very serious. The final outcome will only be known on Nov. 2nd.

Umm.... I beg to differ, the final outcome will only be known Probably some time in mid December or early January. Remember LAST time? ;)

Quoted: Although I don't share their defeatest attitude, I maintain my fear that Kerry could win.  I need my fear as it can be a motivator.

Exactly, BUSH COULD win, Kerry COULD win, and we probably won't know WHO won until some later date that is NOT in November.

Does anyone know of a site that isn't biased for either Bush OR Kerry??? Preferably one that also lists Badnarik? ;)

Everyone take a deep breath & repeat after me... most media outlets are not trying to report the news so much as they are trying to shape the news.

They are trying to create a general perception that Kerry is going to win so that those voters who are easily swayed by trends & popular opinion will pull the lever for Kerry, lest they vote for the "loser"!

Exhale...  

Quoted: Umm.... I beg to differ, the final outcome will only be known Probably some time in mid December or early January. Remember LAST time? ;)

Exactly!  I have a feeling this one is going to take a very long time to sort out.

Quoted: Quoted: The clown that runs that site thinks Kerry is going to win Virginia AND North Carolina AND Arkansas AND Missouri...  Now Arkansas maybe, but the others?  Come on! He's off his gourd. VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA? He won't win EITHER! This guy is NUTS!

Thank GOD too! I haven't had to listen to all of those campaign adds this time around!

Quoted: Why do I even fucking bother.

If negative comments bother you that much, maybe you shouldn't.

Umm.... I beg to differ, the final outcome will only be known Probably some time in mid December or early January. Remember LAST time? ;)

yes I remember all to well. I, however, am trying to remain optimistic and positive. Something some people have a hard time doing.

The Democrat who runs Electoral-vote.com must not have gotten the memo... even KERRY realizes that he won't win MO & AR...

Good News... Kerry all but conceeds Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and Missouri to Bush

www.electoral-vote.com/

Well, not that this site is much BETTER, but, IMO it's more realistic.... as Zaphod pointed out, VA & NC are on THIS site considered barely Bush, but still on his "talley" at least.

My mom is the person giving me hope in this election.  She's voted Democrat almost every election, but she's voting for Bush in November.  I'm sure there are many more out there like her.

Quoted: The inner city has no idea how the rest of us live nor could they care and if they had their way sweeping laws would be passed that are totally applicable to their lifestyle but not the rest of the land.

I don't think the bullshit those fools want to pass applies anywhere.

Kacer...

Well, not that this site [Electoral-vote.com] is much BETTER, but, IMO it's more realistic.... as Zaphod pointed out, VA & NC are on THIS site considered barely Bush, but still on his "talley" at least.

Kacer, that IS the site that HiramRanger is referencing in his initial post.  

Interestingly enough, if you scroll down the page, you see this:

Projected Senate: 45 Democrats, 52 Republicans, 1 independent, 2 tossups

This projection from someone firmly in the Kerry camp.

Quoted: Kerry is gonna win

Living up to your name....lol.

I must be on another planet.  I fail to see how, given all of the information laid in front of us, the American electorate could POSSIBLY put Kerry in the White House.

Then again...I was certain OJ was going down too...

I'll only believe that Kerry is the winner AFTER November 3 and Bush concedes.  The polls simply can't be an accurate predictor of the final outcome.

HR...I agree with you, I think our bright friend is salting the poll to Kerry's benefit.  The internals are just too good for the President.

That said...I am truly saddened by what I consider to be the incredible number of Americans who have been taken in by the Kerry teams' lies.  The Democrats' ability to lie with a straight face is amazing...and the illogic of their campaign is simply mind-boggling.

How can so many of my fellow citizens fail to grasp the grave danger we are in and the catastroophic consequences of a Kerry win?  

This is the most important election since 1864.  Had McClellan won instead of Lincoln, the United States would have ended the Civil War with a treaty with the Confederacy.  Think about what then followed in our history.  How could the much smaller and far less capable USA have successfully become the "Arsenal of Democracy" and won WW II.  What IF the Nazis and Facism had won...or at least achieved a stalemate?  Consider for a sec the benefits and contributions that the South has made since 1865 to the greatness of the United States?  The Manhattan Project anyone?  Oak Ridge?  How about the southern ports and mineral deposits?  How...ah forget it...you get the idea:  No South...no USA as we know it...and I believe Hitler and Tojo win WW II and the world slips into the Abyss.  Liberal Jews ought to consider THAT when they step into the booth.  No WW II victory by the Allies and the Holocaust never existed...(not the reality of it...but the "Holocaust" as WE see it today) because you KNOW the Nazis would have simply covered it up.

Kerry is the peacenik candidate.  Kerry is a one-world socialist asshole who would turn over our country to the UN and the Euro-weenies.  Kerry is a lying medal hound.  Kerry is an elitist prick who just wants to be president so he can destroy our country and rebuild it in the socialist image.

WHY IN HELL CAN'T MY FELLOW AMERICANS SEE THIS?!!!

Kerry is the peacenik candidate. Kerry is a one-world socialist asshole who would turn over our country to the UN and the Euro-weenies. Kerry is a lying medal hound. Kerry is an elitist prick who just wants to be president so he can destroy our country and rebuild it in the socialist image. WHY IN HELL CAN'T MY FELLOW AMERICANS SEE THIS?!!!

Not that this will help lower your blood pressure LWilde, but many Americans do see Kerry for what he is, AND THEY AGREE WITH HIM!!!

You can thank a public educational system that has been dumbing students down for the last 40 years! Throw in the fact that most college professors are leftist ideologues intent on furthering their agenda through the indoctrination of their students, and you have a recipe for the fall of a once great republic.

45 states.


SGatr15

First, there's alot that can and will happen between now and then.

Second, let's talk about voter registration.  The Republicans AND the democrats have gone nuts with new voter registration.  But Democrat new voters mostly come from the cities, and are less motivated.  

Third, every single person that I know, who is newly "political", is a Bush supporter.
Why?  Because of the War.

"Security moms"  A woman at a party asked me about the war and the candidates.  I told her that a president Kerry is most likely to see to it that I don't have to fight.  But a President Bush will allow me to fight, so that our sons won't have to.

She said: "That's what I thought."



Lastly:

Remember 2002?
Wasn't it surprising how huge the republicans won?

That surprise was due to the media, and they're ignorance of the real situation on the ground.
This year will be even worse.
They are guilty of wishful thinking.  They ignore the fact that Bush is really doing better than they all acknowledge.

I just heard sKerry has $15-25M left and

W has only $10-$20M left

Here's a way we can all help out in the last 2 weeks.
Donate

I find it funny that many of the "battleground" states he was showing as having a final projected outcome of being strongly Bush are now strongly Kerry, but then when you go and click on these individual states that his linear regression line used to determine who will take that state doesn't regress back through all of the data anymore like it used to.

If you look at WI for instance, the regression only goes back to mid September and completely ignores any data before that. This must be his new strategy in the final projected outcome, since it was showing such a strong win for Bush for so long he had to rework and tweak the data to get it to show a Kerry win.

What's interesting is that Bush has been ahead BY FAR in the final projected map for a LONG TIME on this guy's site and now all of a sudden Kerry is way ahead. To me, that just doesn't make sense and sounds like bad statistics. If you have many months of data added up showing Bush as having a huge lead in the electoral college (in the final projected map), but then within a few days have it swing completely the opposite in favor of Kerry, you know something has to be up.

It's like if you take a pair of dice and roll numbers and keep a tally of which numbers (when you add the pair together) come up most often. After rolling 500 times you show that the number 9 has come up 30% of the time and the number 2 has come up only 1% of the time. Then you roll the dice 3 more times and now all of a sudden you data is showing that the number 2 comes up 66% of the time and 9 only 33% of the time? You'd have to know that something is not right.  Namely, that you threw away all of the previous data, rolled three more times and got a 2 twice and a 9 once.

That seems like exactly what this guy did here. I think it's safe to say that he's thrown all his credibility out the window.

Thanks for keeping us updated HiramRanger

The site that shows the map, electoralvote.com is obviously a dem website. All you have to do is check out the some of the links on their page.  Gallop has Bush up by 8. Most others are around 3-5. Zogby is the only poll that shows a tie.


links from the site,
cut and paste below.

Dump Bush Websites
Bushfilter.com Newspaper articles critical of the administration
Topplebush.com A huge number of articles, links, cartoons, and jokes
Ejectbush.com Get rid of Bush, but with a great sense of humor
Howard Stern's antiBush sites The radio shock jock's list of antiBush sites
Republicans against Bush You don't have to be a Democrat to hate Bush
Women against Bush Get out the single women's vote
Mothers against Bush Married women as well
Babes against Bush Hot chicks don't like him either
Expats against Bush Americans overseas don't like him either
Americans against Bush Americans at home don't either
The World Against Bush He is turning people against America throughout the world

Quoted: Kerry is the peacenik candidate. Kerry is a one-world socialist asshole who would turn over our country to the UN and the Euro-weenies. Kerry is a lying medal hound. Kerry is an elitist prick who just wants to be president so he can destroy our country and rebuild it in the socialist image. WHY IN HELL CAN'T MY FELLOW AMERICANS SEE THIS?!!! Not that this will help lower your blood pressure LWilde, but many Americans do see Kerry for what he is, AND THEY AGREE WITH HIM!!! You can thank a public educational system that has been dumbing students down for the last 40 years! Throw in the fact that most college professors are leftist ideologues intent on furthering their agenda through the indoctrination of their students, and you have a recipe for the fall of a once great republic.

I know...sadly you are right on the money:  Many of my fellow citizens do believe Kerry is a better choice for president than Bush.  I happen to think that they are oblivious to the danger we as a nation face...and that THEY AND THEIR FAMILIES face should Kerry be elected.  And yes, communism and recombinant socialism continue to thrive in one spot on this planet...our universities.  That bums me out too.

I fear for my country...I sense a schism looming over us all.  

Quoted: <<snip>>So keep fighting the good fight and lets hope the October surprise is released around Thursday,

Knowest thou something hidden from us...the great unwashed?  

I for one certainly hope so!  

give us some more crazy!

Alas, the sky is falling.

Quoted: Nope, I know nuttin

tell us something we don't know!

Quoted: Interestingly enough, if you scroll down the page, you see this: Projected Senate: 45 Democrats, 52 Republicans, 1 independent, 2 tossups This projection from someone firmly in the Kerry camp.

His senate projection has moved Republican and his Presidential Projection is moving for Kerry... This does not stack up.

Every recent poll I have seen shows a trend toward Bush and only this guy shows Kerry picking up states?

As someone once told me self-deception not money is the root of all evil, this guys Presidential projection seem to be eat up with it.

I'M SCARED!!!!!


Hold me!!!  *begins sucking thumb*

Seriously though I'm beginning to worry, I mean this is the same country that elected Klinton to a second term.

Quoted: His senate projection has moved Republican and his Presidential Projection is moving for Kerry... This does not stack up. Every recent poll I have seen shows a trend toward Bush and only this guy shows Kerry picking up states? As someone once told me self-deception not money is the root of all evil, this guys Presidential projection seem to be eat up with it.

What you have failed to consider is the voter registration for crack cocaine factor.  That is probably what he is including in his projections.

OK, late to thread due to my job, but let me throw some stuff at ya for consumption.  Look at the numbers below. (I hope the come out OK and can make sense)

This election is about terrorism, Iraq and who is the better leader for the next four years.  Domestic issues are not at the front to the average American right now.  

The magic number that the Dems use to say Kerry is in good shape is the Presidents approval rating.  Rasmussen has him at 52, many of the polls including todays Fox news poll have him below 50%  Conventional wisdom says that if a candidate is below this number he loses.  This will not hold up this year.  Bush can have an approval below 50% and still win.  Look at the numbers below.  He is up ten to eleven points on better leader and national defense.  This is what gets Bush elected.





Election 2004

National Political Tracking Data

Updated daily by Noon Eastern

Last Update Tuesday

Click on Topic for Details

Presidential Tracking             Bush   48  Kerry 47

Congress                              Dem   44  GOP    41

President Bush Job Approval                  52

Electoral College               Bush 213 - Kerry 194

Updated Weekly
Bush                   Favorable 52 Unfavorable 47

Kerry                 Favorable 50 Unfavorable 49

Battleground States               Bush  47  Kerry 47

Right Track?                         Right 43 Wrong 54

Who is a Better Leader?         Bush 50   Kerry 40

Trust on Nat'l Defense?          Bush 53   Kerry 42

Trust to Manage Economy?   Bush 49   Kerry 45

Winning the War on Terror US 51  Terrorists 27

How is Bush handling Iraq  Ex/Good 44 Poor 44

How is Bush handling Econ Ex/Good 42 Poor 41


Let me add a personal story to this.  I work with a lady who is some what a left leaning democrat.  Her son is in the Air Force and was in Qatar when the war started.  I talk with her every morning about current events and try to keep her upbeat when things look bleak.  I was having lunch with her last week and we were talking about how Bush handles the war.  I told her that I thought Bush had a "gunslinger" mentality and I really liked that.  She agreed but said that she hated it.  She does not like Bush, she hates most of what he stands for and his approach to politics.  She did say however that she would be voting for him because what was going on with the war on terror was to important to screw it up and that even though she did not like Bush personaly he would get her vote.  


This is not an isolated opinion and the numbers that Rasmussen has PROVE this.  At the end of the day when people pull the lever for President it's not about taxes, SS, the enviroment or the economy.  It is about where we fight this war.  We can win it over there and fight them over there or we can do it here.

Who at the end of the day do you think will win?

It could be Kerry.  If this country can elect a guy like Clinton then Kerry could very well pull this off.  

The numbers and the reality of what is going on however all point to Bush.

I as said in another thread, the Democrats are taking advantage of the news. People are scared.

The trend is for a Kerry win.

We are in deep trouble. The polls show that Kerry won all three debates. Oil is $54 a barrel. The deficit is at a record 413B. 10 killed in Bagdad green zone. Dow below 10,000.

We are doomed. Bush single handedly destroyed the conservative movement.

Kerry will win.

Start bury your guns!

Quoted: I as said in another thread, the Democrats are taking advantage of the news. People are scared. The trend is for a Kerry win. We are in deep trouble. The polls show that Kerry won all three debates. Oil is $54 a barrel. The deficit is at a record 413B. 10 killed in Bagdad green zone. Dow below 10,000. We are doomed. Bush single handedly destroyed the conservative movement. Kerry will win. Start bury your guns!

... what a load of horseshit - buzz off

Quoted: I as said in another thread, the Democrats are taking advantage of the news. People are scared. The trend is for a Kerry win. We are in deep trouble. The polls show that Kerry won all three debates. Oil is $54 a barrel. The deficit is at a record 413B. 10 killed in Bagdad green zone. Dow below 10,000. We are doomed. Bush single handedly destroyed the conservative movement. Kerry will win. Start bury your guns!

Imbecilic comments…

Real Clear Politics poll average show Bush up by 4 points.

www.realclearpolitics.com/polls.html

Yes the polls show Kerry won the debates and then his poll numbers started to decline. I suspect because after the debates NO ONE believes anything he says.  The polls also showed Gore wone the debates.