October 17 Electoral Map

Site Notices

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - October 17 Electoral Map (Page 1 of 2)

Posted: 10/17/2004 5:27:59 AM EDT

Kerry 253 Bush 247

Only change since yesterday is wisconsin switched based on a new Rasmussen poll... note the assclown who runs this site will use Rasmussan when it suits his purposes, but chooses not to figure it in when callinf Florida, because it would push florida into the Bush column and show a Bush lead over 270.

Posted: 10/17/2004 5:30:06 AM EDT

[#1]

I'd like to know what the frick is going on over in Nevada.

Posted: 10/17/2004 5:32:39 AM EDT

[#2]

Quoted:
I'd like to know what the frick is going on over in Nevada.

Kalifornication my friend. Ask any long-time Nevada resident and they'll tell you.

Posted: 10/17/2004 5:37:03 AM EDT

[#3]

I am really surprised that Nevada is leaning towards Kerry on that poll because the support here in Vegas is overwhelmingly for the President. The Bush:Kerry sticker ratio on vehicles here is like 10:1. EVERONE I know except 3 people here in Vegas are voting for Bush. So I'd like to know who these Kerry supporters are, they must be in the closet and emberassed to show their support.

Posted: 10/17/2004 5:37:28 AM EDT

[#4]

Bush will win with at least 300 Electoral Votes...'nuff said...

Posted: 10/17/2004 5:40:52 AM EDT

[#5]

I realize that the electoral college and the popular vote are not tied to each other. That being said, Bush is surging in almost all the recent popular vote polls. These are also more recent than most of the state by state polls relied on by that site. I anticipate the map trending "red" and Bush's count increasing during this upcoming week as fresh data arrives state by state.

Posted: 10/17/2004 5:44:25 AM EDT

[#6]

I don't like the looks of that map at all

Posted: 10/17/2004 5:57:14 AM EDT

[#7]

I don't know why I bother at all... I expect people to do a little looking below the surface on their own. The map is a jumping off point for conversation, but many people just look at it and say this is bad, I don't like it, or when we were up... its in the bag. Nothing in life is that simple. In these threads for the past month I have shown the electoral map, explained why it was right at some points, and when it was wrong. I have pointed out the site director's stated biases as well as his biases related to his selective methodology. I have provided national polling data, and explained why there are variations over the weekend... and why it is not often reflected in state data for several days to a week.

Despite all this... there are still a constant litany of "I don't like the looks..." comments. Please, jump into the discussion. Go to www.realclearpolitics.com and www.rasmussenreports.com and www.electionprojection.com and compare information. Report on local polls in your papers that this clown is not including on his website. And for God's sake, if you aren't already doing it... get involved with your local Bush/Cheney operation!

Posted: 10/17/2004 6:13:08 AM EDT

[#8]

Understand, the guy who runs electoral-vote.com is an unreconstructed Kerry suppoter. He ran a pretty clean show at the start, but now he's picking and choosing polls for one reason and one reason only. To try and make bush people feel despondent and to stay home on election day. Its so blatently obvious at this point that this guy is picking and choosing polls purely to show a Kerry surge. Do not believe him. Do not rely on him. Do not trust him. Do your duty and vote no matter what you hear. The fog of war is thick this year.

Posted: 10/17/2004 6:14:37 AM EDT

[#9]

Quoted:
I'd like to know what the frick is going on over in Nevada.

It's one of those Republican "free states"....unlike Cali..

SGtar15

Posted: 10/17/2004 6:15:26 AM EDT

[#10]

Quoted:
Quoted:
I'd like to know what the frick is going on over in Nevada.

Kalifornication my friend. Ask any long-time Nevada resident and they'll tell you.

Well...you guys kept teling everyone to move.

Where did you think they were going to go?

SGatr15

Posted: 10/17/2004 6:23:51 AM EDT

[#11]

Quoted:
Go to www.realclearpolitics.com ...

Hiram,

In 2000, these people had W winning by a landslide that would make Reagan jealous. In your opinion, has their methodology changed in a manner that leads you to believe that they are accurate this year?

Since you seem to have a very in-depth understanding of this stuff, I trust your views more than my deductions. I'm afraid I'm not very good at the nuances of politics.

Thanks.

Posted: 10/17/2004 6:34:16 AM EDT

[#12]

I'm glad the guy is tweaking the polls to show Kerry with a slight lead...it will keee the Bush campaign on their toes to fight even harder. Think about it, if you are in Wisconsin and Kerry just took the lead by 1% are you just going to roll over or are you going to donate more money and time to the Bush campaign?

Posted: 10/17/2004 6:38:31 AM EDT

[#13]

.... It appears NV & NM have flipped weight according to today's map. And it's true CA liberals are moving into AZ & NV - both once considered conservative bastions. I sure hope we can stave off or even convert their influence in the future.

... I miss the old west

Posted: 10/17/2004 6:40:33 AM EDT

[#14]

I don't trust anybody's predictions at this point other than my own. I refer people to these sites for the raw data and then I'll discuss what's there and how I see it. I'm in an argument on another board where the liberals are insisting Kerry has the momentum now... no, he doesn't. The recent poll data, which for the first time in months does not seem to have radically skewed poll samples, shows Bush with a defintive lead in the popular vote. While the popular vote is not what matters in the end, bear in mind that the blue states tend to be fewer in number, higher in population and with more electoral votes in a concentrated area. When Kerry wins NY or Mass which are solid blue, he is purchasing electoral votes at a far greater cost per vote. In this I mean, yeah, he may push 60% of the vote or more... but all he needs is a majority of the votes to get the electora. This is where they have most of their numbers, which is why democrats can win the popular vote and lose the electoral vote. So if we are leading in national polls, that bodes well to us because it indicates that we have support in our red areas as well as the urban areas where many of the polls concentrate... which really means our support it including a decent number of independents in my mind that live in this blue areas.

My guess is a Bush electoral victory of 300-320 votes. I think we carry Ohio and Florida and if we fight hard enough... especially with the NRA sending thousands of sportsmen into PA to get the rural voters out and supporting Bush... we might eek out a win in PA.

Bottom line, I believe Kerry needs Florida, Ohio and Rennsylvania to win and I don't see him getting all three. I see Nevada, Wisconsin and Minnesota turning to Bush. Look at how many of those Kerry leads are by 1 point or 2. There are a decent number of close Bush states as well... but look who is polling them... Zogby and American Research Group... two very biased polling firms that tend to favor Kerry.

I think this is an important graph and worth looking at.

if it doesn't show...

www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html

Keep in mind that weekend polling does not favor Republicans... and even with that, Zogby has shown a 4-4-2 Bush lead over the past three days. Rasmssen has shown similar numbers.

Posted: 10/17/2004 7:17:33 AM EDT

[#15]

One thing that I find odd in the last few days is the blatant disregared for the dynamic of the race that EC is stating right now. All of the major polls are trending for Bush. Not big swings, but small steady gains of a point or two every couple of days. Today the Washington Post has Bush pulling ahead again.

Here is a statement from EC.com

Kerry is continuing to get a lift from the third debate.

This is wishful thinking. Wishing will get you no where. I wish I would win the lottery and could date playboy models. Unfortunately reality says otherise.

Early next week I think Rove will play his hand.

By the end of this coming week Bush should have a solid lead. I see Bush picking up Wisconcin and maybe Iowa. I just dont see my state (NM) going for Bush. I hope I am wrong.

Don't worry about this map.

Posted: 10/17/2004 7:19:00 AM EDT

[#16]

Here is another graphic to help reassure the doubters

Posted: 10/17/2004 7:33:03 AM EDT

[#17]

Quoted:
I'd like to know what the frick is going on over in Nevada.

nothing, it WILL go to President Bush

Nevada
2004 Electoral Votes: 5 | 2000 Results: Bush 49.5, Gore 46.0, Nader 2.5 (Bush +3.5)

Poll | Date Sample MoE Bush Kerry Spread
RCP Average | 9/18-10/3 - - 49.3 44.5 Bush +4.8
SUSA | 10/1-10/3 625 LV 4.0 50 46 - Bush +4
BR&S/LV Sun | 9/20-9/28 600 LV 4.0 48 44 Bush +4
Rasmussen | 9/23*** 500 LV 5.0 47 45 - Bush +2
Gallup | 9/18-9/21 534 LV 5.0 52 43 Bush +9

Posted: 10/17/2004 7:35:23 AM EDT

[#18]

every single national poll that has come out this week has President Bush up, with Newsweek having him up 6 points!

Posted: 10/17/2004 7:43:29 AM EDT

[#19]

Anybody see Zogby's daily number yet? Rasmussen has another 2 point Bush lead during a weekend and incorporating only post debate sampling... 4-4-2-2 Rasmussen lead past four days. Zogby was 4-4-2 as well if I recall correctly. So damn hard to keep all the numbers straight.

Posted: 10/17/2004 7:46:54 AM EDT

[#20]

also, and this may very well be the most important thing, kerry is still losing among women to President Bush!! it's commonly accepted that democrats must win the women's vote by at least 7 or 8 points to even have a chance. (Gore won among women by around 9 points iirc)

Posted: 10/17/2004 7:48:15 AM EDT

[#21]

Quoted:
also, and this may very well be the most important thing, kerry is still losing among women to President Bush!! it's commonly accepted that democrats must win the women's vote by at least 7 or 8 points to even have a chance. (Gore won among women by around 9 points iirc)

Do you have the latest gender breakdown?

Posted: 10/17/2004 7:48:30 AM EDT

[#22]

Hiram thanks for doing these posts, don't get discouraged by some of the responses.

We all know there is only one poll that really counts at the end of the day, and it ain't the one where they call you while you're at home eating dinner and ask you how you "feel". The one that matters is the one where you have to take hours off of your work day to drive around and find the correct polling station, which is usually some little hole in the wall city building, stand in a line for awhile, and for FOR somebody, not just against somebody else that you don't like that much.

With so few "undecided" voters that will actually vote at this stage, voter turnout of the party core is what will decide this election. That being said, I'm only voting for Bush once this time-- talking about the stunt I pulled in 2000 almost got me kicked out of law school.

Posted: 10/17/2004 7:50:47 AM EDT

[#23]

Quoted:
I'd like to know what the frick is going on over in Nevada.

Tell me about it!every time I see a Skerry/Dedwards sticker I get livid!Fuckin Kalifornia!Go back and Poison where you came from!Fuckin AssHats!

Posted: 10/17/2004 7:53:39 AM EDT

[#24]

Sunday, October 17, 2004
The Return of Steven den Beste
Steven den Beste takes a look at Presidential election polling numbers. He concludes that Kerry is steadily losing ground.

In September, I think there was a deliberate attempt to depress Kerry's numbers, so as to set up an "October comeback". Of course, the goal was to engineer a bandwagon. Public opinion isn't usually as ephemeral as these polls suggest that it is. But there can be long-term trends, and I find it interesting that such a thing actually does show through. It's quite striking how close some of the data falls to the long term trendlines which I've drawn in. The reason the Democrats and the MSM are getting frantic is that they're losing.

Follow the link to his graph, which visually conveys more information than can be easily described. The most striking thing about the Kerry trend line is that it suggests a system that has been maxed out, like an engine which has reached the limit of its design. That suggests a far larger problem for Liberals then the mere weakness of a Kerry candidacy. To a substantial extent, Kerry is a proxy for an abstract candidate called 'Anybody But Bush'. The failure to get maximum acceleration when the Left needs it most could indicate that its traditional political instruments are losing traction. Celebrity endorsements, mainstream media support, favorable reviews from academia plus street events rooted in the old antiwar-civil rights movement -- the old winning combinations -- no longer have an overwhelming effect. That doesn't mean they have no effect. We will know whether Steven den Beste's long term trend lines are correct in a little over two weeks.

A big Kerry win will indicate will indicate that the Liberal position is after all, a stable one, and that the system is returning to its equilibrium state after an accidental derangement occasioned by September 11. George Bush will have been identified as an aberration; the United Nations and the transatlantic alliance will reassume their accustomed places. The old order will be restored. But a Kerry loss or even a narrow win will suggest that a permanent sea-change has taken place.

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
... The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
-- W.B. Yeats

What indeed? The new world is one whose advent the Left will not acknowledge, on peril of its life. It looks to the future by fixing its gaze firmly on the past. But even conservatives are likely to be perplexed. It is one thing to become aware of a new presence and another to know precisely what it is. But one thing at a time.

# posted by wretchard : 6:32 AM 15 comments

Posted: 10/17/2004 7:54:39 AM EDT

[#25]

Quoted:
Quoted:
also, and this may very well be the most important thing, kerry is still losing among women to President Bush!! it's commonly accepted that democrats must win the women's vote by at least 7 or 8 points to even have a chance. (Gore won among women by around 9 points iirc)

Do you have the latest gender breakdown?

the Newsweek poll has President Bush leading among women 49-43

Posted: 10/17/2004 8:02:09 AM EDT

[#26]

Interesting, and I heard today that Kerry is only pulling about 75% of the black vote right now... something that is unheard of for democrats. If the black vote and women's vote are below traditional levels for Kerry, there is trouble. Plenty of time to have everything reverse and go FOR Kerry... so we must remain vigilant. For example, its time for the Bush/Cheney campaign to shut up about the Mary Cheney lesbian issue... but it is OUR job to beat that drum... They can't afford to harp on it for fear of it looking like they are using her sexual preference as a weapon... That will backfire, especially if Kerry and Edwards do not mention it again... but we can mention it to everyone when we talk about it.

When a liberal tells you its fake indignation by the right, you should mention that democrat, lesbian, feminist, former president of California NOW talk show host Tammy Bruce ripped Kerry and Edwards to shreds over what she termed a vicious attack.

Posted: 10/17/2004 8:03:29 AM EDT

[#27]

Quoted:
I'd like to know what the frick is going on over in Nevada.

Then read this and discover it it should be red:

www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/nv_polls.html

Posted: 10/17/2004 8:06:01 AM EDT

[#28]

And ask Hiramranger, I predicted that he would cherry-pick th eRasmussen Wisconsin numbers yesterday evening, just as he chooses to ignore them for Florida and Ohio.

[churchlady]How conveinent!!![/churchlady]

Posted: 10/17/2004 8:13:07 AM EDT

[#29]

Yup, HM and I discussed that last night...

Here is an interesting graphic that shows media bias

This had the headline Kerry cuts Bush lead to two... and Zogby said Kerry had a good day after the third debate... Funny, looks like Kerry's numbers were static and Bush's numbers climbed. True, Zobgy had him up by four, and now it is two.. but Kerry has no movement or momentum... Just another example of the media and that scumbag Zogby trying to play down Bush's performance to support Kerry...

ETA, republicans do worse in daily polling on weekends because we are usually not at home to take polling calls... even with this temporary advantage democrats get weekly, Kerry is not able to capitalize... this to me is VERY telling!

Posted: 10/17/2004 8:22:22 AM EDT

[#30]

Zogby tries to read too much into one days numbers.

Rasmussen specifically cautions against that.

Notice Zogby tends to close over weekends and last weekend was a three day holiday.

Posted: 10/17/2004 8:32:55 AM EDT

[#31]

I just found this on DU,

Just announced on CNN -- Bush leads 52-44 among likely voters

Posted: 10/17/2004 8:35:25 AM EDT

[#32]

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Choice for President

Likely Registered
Voters Voters

Bush 52% 49%
Kerry 44 46
Nader 1 1

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

FOR RELEASE: Sunday, October 17 at noon

Interviews with 1,013 adult Americans, including 788 likely voters and 942 registered voters, conducted by telephone on October 14-16, 2004

Although Americans think John Kerry did the best job in the debates, that has not translated into an increase in his popularity, which in turn means that he appears to have lost a little ground to Bush. Among registered voters, a 48%-48% tie is now a 49%-46% edge for Bush -- not much of a difference and, with the sampling error, not a significant change. The Gallup likely voter model, which identified those respondents who are most likely to cast a ballot, is magnifying those shifts, with a 49%-48% advantage for Kerry turning into a 52%-44% lead for Bush. What's going on?

For one thing, the charge that Kerry is too liberal, which Bush emphasized mostly in the third and last debate on Wednesday night, seems to be sticking. Nearly half say Kerry's political views are too liberal. (Four in ten say Bush is too conservative.) But didn't Kerry win the debate? Yes, as with the first two debates, the public thinks Kerry did the better job on Wednesday night. But as Al Gore learned in 2000, winning a debate on points does not necessarily translate into votes or make a candidate more popular. As in 2000, Bush's favorable ratings -- Americans view of him as a person -- went up after a debate that he lost. Kerry's favorable rating has remained flat. Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election, and thus more likely to vote, as reflected in the Gallup likely voter model.

Bush may have energized his base in the final debate at the expense of not appealing to a wider audience -- but he managed to do so in a way that made him more popular than Kerry.

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Likely Voters'
Choice for President

Now Oct. 9-10

Bush 52% 48%
Kerry 44 49
Nader 1 1

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

QUESTION: Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats,Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates?

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Favorable Ratings

Now Oct. 9-10
Bush 55% 51%
Kerry 52 52

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Opinion of George W. Bush

Now Oct. 9-10
Favorable 55% 51%
Unfavorable 44 46
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

QUESTION: Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. A. George W. Bush B. John Kerry

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Kerry's Political Views

Too liberal 47%
About right 38
Too conservative 9

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Bush's Political Views

Too liberal 14%
About right 41
Too conservative 40

Posted: 10/17/2004 8:37:26 AM EDT

[#33]

Somebody is 'shittin-kittens' right now!

Posted: 10/17/2004 8:38:39 AM EDT

[#34]

link damn it post the damn link so we can spread this!

Posted: 10/17/2004 8:40:03 AM EDT

[#35]

Quoted:
link damn it post the damn link so we can spread this!

any good politico should have drudge as his homepage

Posted: 10/17/2004 8:41:19 AM EDT

[#36]

No, Drudge is too partisan... I hate them partisans!

New rules, no posting shit like this without a link or you get banned... from my threads!

Posted: 10/17/2004 8:42:50 AM EDT

[#37]

....or at least get you a trip to the comfy chair and a session with the cushy pillow!!!!!!!!

Posted: 10/17/2004 8:57:32 AM EDT

[#38]

www.gallup.com/election2004/

I am curious if DU is right that the poll oversampled Republicans by 9%... haven't seen the internals yet, and all they are pointing to is previous polls with oversamples... which I believe Gallup corrected, but not sure.

Posted: 10/17/2004 9:17:33 AM EDT

[#39]

Hiram,

you know they are in meltdown grasping at straws.

I don't give this poll a lot of creedance considering past polls from Gallup but if it makes the DU squirm, I like it for that reason alone.

At least they didn't take the entire sample over a weekend on this one.

Posted: 10/17/2004 9:20:30 AM EDT

[#40]

P.S.

Check the graph on page 1 of this thread, it just updated.

Another note, notice the resolution of the plots changed around the first of Sept.

This is due to a much larger number of polls coming on line.

Posted: 10/17/2004 9:32:33 AM EDT

[#41]

Quoted:
P.S.

Check the graph on page 1 of this thread, it just updated.

www.realclearpolitics.com/news_images-on_site/3waybig.jpg

Another note, notice the resolution of the plots changed around the first of Sept.

This is due to a much larger number of polls coming on line.

Go, baby, go baby, GO!

Go, baby, go baby, GO!

Posted: 10/17/2004 9:48:01 AM EDT

[#42]

Quoted:
Quoted:
I'd like to know what the frick is going on over in Nevada.

Kalifornication my friend. Ask any long-time Nevada resident and they'll tell you.

Yup... the come here like a disease.

Posted: 10/17/2004 9:50:42 AM EDT

[#43]

Hey Gunbert... get that M16 cleaned up... a buddy of mine and I are coming out for five days in January for Shot Show... Think we will need to buy you

a few cases of Wolf and help you function test that sweet little thang!

Posted: 10/17/2004 10:16:13 AM EDT

[#44]

All the growth in Lost Wages has sucked in immigrants from California, so the Nevada is trending Democratic. On the other hand, the upper plains states--Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa--are no longer safe Democratic states. Social issues seem to be shifting them Republican.

Tradesports.com has "bush win" contracts at 54 cents on the dollar, meaning that bush has roughly a 54% chance of winning, though there have been some signs of market manipulaiton there. The University of Iowa markets have Bush at about 58% chance of winning the popular vote. (Short story: these two organizations set up a futures market on political outcomes. It's a hot topic of research. The thinking is that a free market can better predict outcomes than any single poll.)

Posted: 10/17/2004 10:37:40 AM EDT

[#45]

You guys are scapegoating California yet again. Look, there are not enough jobs in Nevada to pull in substantial numbers of Californians. Nevada's problem is of their own doing. Reno and Las Vegas have large numbers of low-end service workers and those people are typically democrat.

Some California small-business owners have left the state for Nevada, but these people are anything but democrat. That's why they left California to begin with.

So, if you looking for someone to blame, blame your own state for having an economy based on gaming.

Posted: 10/17/2004 10:42:32 AM EDT

[#46]

Quoted:
I'd like to know what the frick is going on over in Nevada.

I already cast my absentee vote for W. The Las Vegas metroplex controls this state. Thank God I moved out of that place in 92.

Posted: 10/17/2004 10:51:50 AM EDT

[#47]

Quoted:
I am really surprised that Nevada is leaning towards Kerry on that poll because the support here in Vegas is overwhelmingly for the President. The Bush:Kerry sticker ratio on vehicles here is like 10:1. EVERONE I know except 3 people here in Vegas are voting for Bush. So I'd like to know who these Kerry supporters are, they must be in the closet and emberassed to show their support.

Aren't most recent immigrants to LV from Kali? There's your explanation. You obviously have sense enough not to associate with all those Honda element driving pinkos. There's also the nuclear waste in our backyard phenom. What pandering horseshit. Do they know how many underground hydrogen bombs were set off on the test site over the years. More rad in one of those than in all this country's fuel rods. I think Nevada is perfect for Nuk waste and the stuff would never sit there for 10k years anyway. A few decades and they'll figure a better way to reprocess or dispose.

My 2 cents. YMMV.

Posted: 10/17/2004 11:07:47 AM EDT

[#48]

Quoted:
You guys are scapegoating California yet again. Look, there are not enough jobs in Nevada to pull in substantial numbers of Californians. Nevada's problem is of their own doing. Reno and Las Vegas have large numbers of low-end service workers and those people are typically democrat.

Some California small-business owners have left the state for Nevada, but these people are anything but democrat. That's why they left California to begin with.

So, if you looking for someone to blame, blame your own state for having an economy based on gaming.

The working people are not the problem. It is all the LA liberals retiring to Las Vegas that has pushed the state over the edge IMHO.

Posted: 10/17/2004 1:37:15 PM EDT

[#49]

...and the map moves again as Kerry loses a point in the ABC/WaPo tracking poll today at 5:00PM. Kerry ticks slightly lover. Bush now has a 4 point lead on average.

Posted: 10/17/2004 1:50:18 PM EDT

[#50]

Quoted:
...and the map moves again as Kerry loses a point in the ABC/WaPo tracking poll today at 5:00PM. Kerry ticks slightly lover. Bush now has a 4 point lead on average.

LOL... it has been a great weekend... now if the Yankees sweep the Botox tonight, life will be grand!

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - October 17 Electoral Map (Page 1 of 2)

General » General Discussion

Warning

Confirm Action

About AR15.COM

Stay Connected

Newsletter

Contact Us