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Posted: 10/16/2004 6:06:21 AM EDT
 Kerry 243 Bush 257 Looks like Florida is tied... maybe, maybe not.... let the bellyaching begin... 
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Posted: 10/16/2004 6:09:58 AM EDT
[#1]
GWB is trending upwards....
45 my friend...45 SGatr15 |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 6:15:11 AM EDT
[#2]
In this scenario, Bush won't have enough electoral votes to win, so the election will go to Congress. And Then Bush will dominate. This scenario would be cool because the liberals would be so upset to find out their votes don't count once again.
Look up the Massachussets margin and compare it to Gore's in 2000. Talk about a vote of no-confidence. More Massachussets people voted for Gore than plan to vote for sKerry. |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 6:16:31 AM EDT
[#3]
Ya sure could detect the glee in the hostweenies post today. Reads as though he's looking forward to a court fight in the aftermath.
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Posted: 10/16/2004 6:17:41 AM EDT
[#4]
I'm not worried. Florida will go for Bush I am sure of that.
I think you will see big movement in the polls the last ten days before the election. Let Stolen Honor sink in for a few days. When do you suppose Rove is going to come out with his one or two surprises?? I think Stolen Honor was one, so what could be the other?? It's going to be a long two and a half weeks. |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 6:18:27 AM EDT
[#5]
 yeah right |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 6:37:43 AM EDT
[#6]
Come on Iowa, didn't you hear Kerry hates corn?
And a message for New Hampshire--Kerry doesn't eat maple syrup. He thinks it's too "ethnic". GunLvr |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 6:38:04 AM EDT
[#7]
Ha ha ha...you off the meds again....? I'll bet you $100 bucks that he will not take 45..he will not even get to 38....... 
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Posted: 10/16/2004 6:38:12 AM EDT
[#8]
I don't know if this has been posted before but it's kind of a fun little tool. It's the electoral Calculator. I come up with two scenarios
Bush 299 Kerry 239 or Bush 290 Kerry 248 It would be interesting to see what SGatr15 comes up with when giving 45 states to Bush. Electoral Calculator |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 6:39:11 AM EDT
[#9]
Kerry is in serious self distruct mode
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Posted: 10/16/2004 6:44:59 AM EDT
[#10]
Most of the polls showing Kerry ahead in states that you ask "WTF?" are by Strategic Vision and American Research Group - these are NOT good polling groups and some are a bit liberal leaning.
Note, however, that states where Kerry is tied or barely ahead that he SHOULD be very much ahead are by Zogby and Gallup. |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 6:56:18 AM EDT
[#11]
It is pretty interesting how he arrives at the Florida conclusion... What about factoring in Rasmussen's numbers which have Bush up by 3 in Florida? So he takes two partisan polls, one for Bush one for Kerry and says they cancel each other out... He uses the Washington Post's tied figure to say its ok to do that... but then ignores Rasmussen who has Bush up by 3... How CON... ven... ient!
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Posted: 10/16/2004 7:04:39 AM EDT
[#12]
I grew up in Iowa and now I live in Mn. I'm so ashamed.
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Posted: 10/16/2004 7:09:27 AM EDT
[#13]
I got 283 to 255. I gues you gave Iowa to Bush. I wanted to be a spoil-sport, so I threw it to Kerry. Bush will win Florida. If he can win EITHER PA or OH, we win. Kerry has to take Florida. Even if he wins BOTH PA and OH (which isn't very likely since Bush is up in OH), Kerry would still need IA to win. I just don't see us losing this one. tony |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 7:10:25 AM EDT
[#14]
BTW, he is lying about NJ... from Realclearpolitics.com
Silly me, looks Like FDU has it tied... Guess he has chosen to LIE! |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 7:21:36 AM EDT
[#15]
Don't be so hard on yourself man, go get a MN CCW licence and you'll feel better. While your at it pick up a new pistol to boot. If the wife give you any crap about the Pistol, just tell her the guys on the internet said it was ok. She will understand, I promise.  |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 7:32:09 AM EDT
[#16]
Not necessarily... the 257 – 243 score doesn't appear to include EVs of states that are considered "tied." In other words, SOMEONE is going to win Florida and Iowa (ignoring for a moment that if it's close, lawsuits will pour in contesting the results). Anyway, the scenario in which the decision would go to Congress is if it is an exact tie. An article yesterday brought up the possibility of us having a Bush/Edwards or Kerry/Cheney administration, depending on what the election does to the makeup of Congress (since the president would be chosen by the House, and the VP would be chosen by the Senate). --Mike |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 7:50:06 AM EDT
[#17]
Newsweek Poll 10/16
Bush 50, Kerry 44, Nader 1 State polls lag national about two weeks so now you are essentially looking at the time of the first debate. Not that I particularly trust Newsweek but they didn't poll over the weekend this time. |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 7:54:19 AM EDT
[#18]
Latest RCP composite graph.
Note: I like the current trend line! 
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Posted: 10/16/2004 7:55:56 AM EDT
[#19]
Iowa Market:
I like this trend too:  Seems the verdict is in and Bush won the last debate. |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 7:59:23 AM EDT
[#20]
I hope the new Swift Boat ads do to those lines the same thing they did the first time around...
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Posted: 10/16/2004 8:07:56 AM EDT
[#21]
Not to bust your chops, but we've been saying that since forever, and he's still threatening. Am I missing something? |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 8:13:50 AM EDT
[#22]
NY,VT,MA,RI and maybe cal will go to Kerry for 105 electorial votes. GWB gets the rest. SGtar15 |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 8:15:48 AM EDT
[#23]
Never mind.....
Read the friggin' POST, stupid! 
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Posted: 10/16/2004 8:15:55 AM EDT
[#24]
Irrelevant. Even if the Republicans lost he senate, its the current senate which would pick the VP and the curent house which would pick the POTUS. |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 8:17:59 AM EDT
[#25]
Now THIS is encouraging!
 Polls Take a look at Newsweek! If both their polls are accurate, talk about a SWING! It's probably not that big, but the TREND is! ETA: Wow. Look at the trend of who won polls vs. who lost. Bush is cleaning house. If that holds or improves (as it should as the debate glow dies down and the Swifties resume fire), then maybe, just maybe, Sgt will be right! ETAA: I'm just not with it today. This cold is killing me. The data I posted is the data that generated HeavyMetal's graphs. Duh.... 
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Posted: 10/16/2004 8:25:45 AM EDT
[#26]
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Posted: 10/16/2004 9:15:12 AM EDT
[#27]
Ha ha ha ha ha...maybe in SGtar15's action figure world....not in the real one... You really should double check your medication doseage and up it a tad...
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Posted: 10/16/2004 9:19:30 AM EDT
[#28]
... I'm certain Bush will win this election
... It's the hoards of Kerry lawyers that will fuck up the legitimate concession afterward |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 9:23:44 AM EDT
[#29]
DE turning light blue?
Also whats up with CA and NJ? Funny that the states that Kerry takes for grant doesn't look like "granted" anymore. But then also we are losing in states where R is supposed to be getting more support... |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 9:48:38 AM EDT
[#30]
polling means shit
Voter turnout is the key if the minorities get out and vote Bush could be in trouble. Answering ur phone and being polled or any other way they poll is alot easier than actually getting out to vote. If there is not a big turnout in Fl, Mi, Pa, Oh Bush wins in a land slide |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 10:33:43 AM EDT
[#31]
The only change I would make is switch Illinois with Cal.
Sgtar15 PS Either way...this WILL be a landslide. |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 10:36:51 AM EDT
[#32]
New Time Poll.
Bush 48, Kerry 46, Nader 3 |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 1:12:40 PM EDT
[#33]
Again...I'll bet you $100 that Bush will not take 45 states.....and it will not be a landslide...not even close to a landslide.. |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 1:19:12 PM EDT
[#34]
"Kerry did not energize his base."
That is what I want to hear on November 3rd. |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 1:32:18 PM EDT
[#35]
Didn't that eloectoral vote site used to have a function that tracked the trends and then projected the outcome, as opposed to simply showing the most recent polling data? I remember clicking it, and it always had Bush over 300. But the guy who ran the site said b/c of the methodology, it really wouldn't men much until October. Well, now its October, and I guess he took it off the site.
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Posted: 10/16/2004 1:41:43 PM EDT
[#36]
what's up with Nevada?
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Posted: 10/16/2004 1:47:12 PM EDT
[#37]
No shit! I hate to see this state tainted with blue. It's the Kalifornication factor. 75% of the state's population is in Clark County (Las Vegas) and the majority of those people are recent immigrants (or is it escapees?) from the PRK. 
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Posted: 10/16/2004 2:01:44 PM EDT
[#38]
we've got to hold the line in ohio, boys!
get the message to all your friends...VOTE REPUBLICAN!!! |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 2:21:14 PM EDT
[#39]
Yeah it did. I'm wondering why he took that info off his site. |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 2:28:39 PM EDT
[#40]
Go Bush.
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Posted: 10/16/2004 2:44:45 PM EDT
[#41]
He is cooking the data, check this out.
Guys, go back to page one and check my RCP averge graph again. Bush showed major movement today. The graph isn't static and when the site updates, it updates to. Bush has gained overy a point amd a half just today alone since I first posted it. |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 2:49:13 PM EDT
[#42]
Woo Hoo! Ohio has finaly gone pink!
 errr... Light Red!
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Posted: 10/16/2004 2:52:40 PM EDT
[#43]
Bush will take Michigan
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Posted: 10/16/2004 3:19:16 PM EDT
[#44]
Holy cow!  KEWL! 
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Posted: 10/16/2004 3:21:40 PM EDT
[#45]
Come on Florida, YOU CAN DO IT!
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Posted: 10/16/2004 3:45:06 PM EDT
[#46]
What is truly amazing is that CA is light blue at all and not deep dark blue.
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Posted: 10/16/2004 4:09:34 PM EDT
[#47]
More Bush in 2005
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Posted: 10/16/2004 4:13:14 PM EDT
[#48]
Not if the inner city blacks, rural white trash, Farmers, UAW, Prison Gaurds, and Kroger/Meir employees can hlep it. |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 5:40:46 PM EDT
[#49]
Newsweek has released a poll that has Bush up 50% to 44% over Kerry.
I think the comments on Cheneys daughter are starting to erode kerry support. I think we might see some developments early next week on the Rove suprises. |
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Posted: 10/16/2004 8:21:21 PM EDT
[#50]
Bush will get at least 300 Electoral Votes...GO W!!!
 |
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