Watch the Fed repo pool, when it goes up, so do the markets, when it goes down, so do the markets.
There is a government agency with a $42Billion dollar budget and the full faith and credit of the US government playing futures to keep panics from happening.
The repo pool provides an indication of how much credit that treasury and the banks (the working group on financial markets, set up after the '87 crash) are utilizing on any given day.
You're right about the P/E ratios, and that things are not as peachy as they seem. But as long as the government has unlimited credit and authorization to buy S&P futures it's unlikely we'll get a crash three weeks before an election without a catalyzing event.
Be careful shorting the market, but don't go long either.
This entire decade will be a time for defensive investing, return OF capital, not on.
I'm not entirely sure the adjustment will ever come in stocks, the dollar is more likely IMO.