Hiram Ranger and I must be reading the same analysis as the ones I've read look grim for Kerry. However, there is an important point to this... all of these analyses are based on the current polls and in many states the separation between candidates is less than 5%.
For comparison, here is a
list of polling accuracy from 2000:
Zogby underestimated Bush by 2, had Gore accurate.
Washington Post had Bush accurate, Gore underestimated by 3.
Pew underestimated Bush by 2; underestimated Gore by 5.
Newsweek underestimated Bush by 3; underestimated Gore by 5.
NBC/Wall Street Journal underestimated Bush by 1; underestimated Gore by 4.
Marist overestimated Bush by 1, underestimated Gore by 4.
Harris underestimated both Bush and Gore by one point.
Gallup had Bush accurate, Gore underestimated by 2.
Fox News underestimated both Bush and Gore by 5 percentage points each.
CBS News underestimated Bush by 4, Gore by 3.
Battleground overestimated Bush by 2, underestimated Gore by 3.
In short, the spread on the polls could be as much as 5 points. If this is the case, then there are a LOT more states up for grabs than The MacAllan's analysis shows and definitely more than the ones that I've read.
I would add Pennsylvania to the list simply because the race is very close there and the only way Kerry can win without Pennsylvania is to capture Florida away from Bush.