October electoral map unchanged

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[ARCHIVED THREAD] - October electoral map unchanged

Posted: 10/11/2004 6:45:47 AM EDT

Kerry 270 Bush 248

Posted: 10/11/2004 6:47:23 AM EDT

[#1]

Posted: 10/11/2004 6:48:02 AM EDT

[#2]

What part of "Shoot the messenger" do you not understand?

Posted: 10/11/2004 6:48:35 AM EDT

[#3]

So we might be fvcked?

Posted: 10/11/2004 6:48:52 AM EDT

[#4]

Of course, he removed the map showing a Bush victory in November...very telling...

Posted: 10/11/2004 6:49:03 AM EDT

[#5]

Sorry guys... I made a commitment to do the thread daily... besides I love all your negative attention!

Posted: 10/11/2004 6:51:04 AM EDT

[#6]

Quoted:
So we might be fvcked?

nope, the guy who runs the site is a liberal and picks and chooses the polls that help kerry.

Posted: 10/11/2004 6:52:30 AM EDT

[#7]

Quoted:
So we might be fvcked?

Why are you guys so fucking negative? The polling numbers are very good for us. Other than Zogby, everybody has Bush ahead. From realclearpolitics.com

Zogby (1216 LV) 10/8 - 10/10 44% 47% 2% Kerry +3
ABC/Wash Post (1438 LV) 10/6 - 10/9 51% 46% 1% Bush +5
Time (886 LV w/leaners) 10/6 - 10/7 46% 45% 4% Bush +1
GW/Battleground (1250 LV) 10/3 - 10/7 49% 46% 0% Bush +3
Marist (642 LV) 10/4 - 10/5 49% 46% 1% Bush +3

Zogby is the most biased pollster in the country... probably why he is the only one the DUhers like!

Fucking buck up already!

Here are Rasmussen's latest numbers

Presidential Tracking Bush 50 Kerry 46
Congress Dem 44 GOP 42
President Bush Job Approval 54
Electoral College Bush 240 - Kerry 179
Updated Weekly
Bush Favorable 52 Unfavorable 47
Kerry Favorable 51 Unfavorable 47
Battleground States Bush 47 Kerry 47
Right Track? Right 43 Wrong 54
Who is a Better Leader? Bush 50 Kerry 40
Trust on Nat'l Defense? Bush 52 Kerry 44
Trust to Manage Economy? Bush 49 Kerry 45
Winning the War on Terror US 52 Terrorists 27
How is Bush handling Iraq Ex/Good 42 Poor 45
How is Bush handling Econ Ex/Good 41 Poor 42

And electoral-vote.com's projected final map

Kerry 203 Bush 316

Posted: 10/11/2004 6:52:36 AM EDT

[#8]

Actually the map is incorrect even by the author's own comments - the polls show AR is at least +6 Bush and it is listed as neutral

Posted: 10/11/2004 6:52:51 AM EDT

[#9]

You made the comitment when that guy was at least pretending to have a modicum of integrity. At this point, he's a full on Democrat propogandist.

The goal, clearly, was go get people hooked on following the EV through his site, and then to change methodologies etc., to get people on the Bush side frustrated and dspondent. TO DISCOURAGE THEM FROM VOTING.

I'm saying that if posting that thing has the effect of keeping one single GWB guy home on election day, then your posting of it will have been as a tool of the enemy. Do what you want, but I'd give up on that particular guy's site. He's about as reliable as that Iraqi information minister guy.

Posted: 10/11/2004 6:54:28 AM EDT

[#10]

Quoted:
You made the comitment when that guy was at least pretending to have a modicum of integrity. At this point, he's a full on Democrat propogandist.

The goal, clearly, was go get people hooked on following the EV through his site, and then to change methodologies etc., to get people on the Bush side frustrated and dspondent. TO DISCOURAGE THEM FROM VOTING.

I'm saying that if posting that thing has the effect of keeping one single GWB guy home on election day, then your posting of it will have been as a tool of the enemy. Do what you want, but I'd give up on that particular guy's site. He's about as reliable as that Iraqi information minister guy.

Sorry to say, but I agree. Used to be a fan of the site but he's strayed from objectivity now. +1

Posted: 10/11/2004 6:58:33 AM EDT

[#11]

Anybody who doesn't like it is free to post their own thread with their own data... Don;t want to read my thread, nobody is forcing you to click on it, are they? You want to see information that simply tells you what you want to hear? I've torn this site to shred's on several occassions, but even biased, it provides polling data that we might not see or think of otherwise. I will continue to post this information, as well as information from Rasmussen, Realclearpolitics, Pollingreport and other sources. Once again, you don;t want to read the thread, don't. There are others who want to see the information... all of the information... and make up their minds.

Posted: 10/11/2004 7:00:15 AM EDT

[#12]

Quoted:
Quoted:
So we might be fvcked?

Why are you guys so fucking negative? The polling numbers are very good for us. Other than Zogby, everybody has Bush ahead. From realclearpolitics.com

Zogby (1216 LV) 10/8 - 10/10 44% 47% 2% Kerry +3
ABC/Wash Post (1438 LV) 10/6 - 10/9 51% 46% 1% Bush +5
Time (886 LV w/leaners) 10/6 - 10/7 46% 45% 4% Bush +1
GW/Battleground (1250 LV) 10/3 - 10/7 49% 46% 0% Bush +3
Marist (642 LV) 10/4 - 10/5 49% 46% 1% Bush +3

Zogby is the most biased pollster in the country... probably why he is the only one the DUhers like!

Fucking buck up already!

Here are Rasmussen's latest numbers

Presidential Tracking Bush 50 Kerry 46
Congress Dem 44 GOP 42
President Bush Job Approval 54
Electoral College Bush 240 - Kerry 179
Updated Weekly
Bush Favorable 52 Unfavorable 47
Kerry Favorable 51 Unfavorable 47
Battleground States Bush 47 Kerry 47
Right Track? Right 43 Wrong 54
Who is a Better Leader? Bush 50 Kerry 40
Trust on Nat'l Defense? Bush 52 Kerry 44
Trust to Manage Economy? Bush 49 Kerry 45
Winning the War on Terror US 52 Terrorists 27
How is Bush handling Iraq Ex/Good 42 Poor 45
How is Bush handling Econ Ex/Good 41 Poor 42

And electoral-vote.com's projected final map

www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct10p.html

Kerry 203 Bush 316

hey, you're the fucking "pro".....not me......post some context.....first I have looked at this damn thread....

Posted: 10/11/2004 7:01:07 AM EDT

[#13]

Pollingreport.com

Posted: 10/11/2004 7:02:30 AM EDT

[#14]

Where is that graph where people buy or sell based on who they think is going to win the election?

Hasn't that been right for something like 30 years?

I wonder what it's doing now?

Posted: 10/11/2004 7:04:22 AM EDT

[#15]

Hey Shivan, these threads have been posted for a month, unless this is the FIRST time you've opened ANY of them then you know the problems we have with electoral-vote.com, but why we still look at it... you would know that they also have a final projected map that has shown a Bush lead for quite awhile, you would know that information is continually pumped into the thread as it goes along.

And just so you know, when I started the thread I couldn't get the link to the final map to work, so I didn;t post it. Once I got it to work a few minutes later it was posted. Relax, if there is something to really be worried about, I'll state it pretty clearly.

Posted: 10/11/2004 7:04:25 AM EDT

[#16]

Yeah, I love the removal of the "projected final" map (or whatever it was called... the one that showed Bush way ahead). I guess he didn't like the numbers.

--Mike

Posted: 10/11/2004 7:05:18 AM EDT

[#17]

Quoted:
Where is that graph where people buy or sell based on who they think is going to win the election?

Hasn't that been right for something like 30 years?

I wonder what it's doing now?

Let me see if I can get that one for you... give me a couple minutes.

Posted: 10/11/2004 7:06:19 AM EDT

[#18]

Quoted:
Sorry guys... I made a commitment to do the thread daily... besides I love all your negative attention!

A bit sad, this guy had a pretty good site. He could have made something from this.

Posted: 10/11/2004 7:06:54 AM EDT

[#19]

Damn you, Hiram!!

You are quickly turning my hair gray with these posts.

Posted: 10/11/2004 7:13:22 AM EDT

[#20]

Quoted:
Damn you, Hiram!!

You are quickly turning my hair gray with these posts.

You want the truth.... you can't HANDLE the truth... Son we live in a world that needs pollsters... sorry couldn't resist.

ONCE AGAIN PEOPLE, THINGS LOOK GOOD... NOT GREAT... BUT GOOD!

Kerry's momentum coming off the disasterous first debate has discipated. Bush is showing several point leads in most national polls. Rasmussen is one of the most conservative pollsters in terms of methodology... remember the Rasmussen Rule... add three points to Bush for his numbers to account for his bias as he is a Republican leaning pollster that plays down the numbers of the Republicans so as not to be dismissed as a shill. For the first time he has a candidate above 50% and Bush's approval numbers are climbing.

Posted: 10/11/2004 7:14:26 AM EDT

[#21]

Quoted:
Hey Shivan, these threads have been posted for a month, unless this is the FIRST time you've opened ANY of them then you know the problems we have with electoral-vote.com, but why we still look at it... you would know that they also have a final projected map that has shown a Bush lead for quite awhile, you would know that information is continually pumped into the thread as it goes along.

And just so you know, when I started the thread I couldn't get the link to the final map to work, so I didn;t post it. Once I got it to work a few minutes later it was posted. Relax, if there is something to really be worried about, I'll state it pretty clearly.

Yes...first I opened any of them.

Posted: 10/11/2004 7:19:04 AM EDT

[#22]

Bush's approval numbers are climbing

This is the key to sorting thru the bullshit.

If Bush's approval is above 50%, it is unlikely he will loose.

This is the factor that hints at the intensity of the base.

Posted: 10/11/2004 7:20:29 AM EDT

[#23]

Another map:

Posted: 10/11/2004 7:21:00 AM EDT

[#24]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Hey Shivan, these threads have been posted for a month, unless this is the FIRST time you've opened ANY of them then you know the problems we have with electoral-vote.com, but why we still look at it... you would know that they also have a final projected map that has shown a Bush lead for quite awhile, you would know that information is continually pumped into the thread as it goes along.

And just so you know, when I started the thread I couldn't get the link to the final map to work, so I didn;t post it. Once I got it to work a few minutes later it was posted. Relax, if there is something to really be worried about, I'll state it pretty clearly.

Yes...first I opened any of them.

Than I'm sorry my friend... I assumed the people reading them are reading them daily and had seen all that.

Posted: 10/11/2004 7:22:23 AM EDT

[#25]

Quoted:
Another map:

260 for Bush? Is that the number?

Posted: 10/11/2004 7:23:56 AM EDT

[#26]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Hey Shivan, these threads have been posted for a month, unless this is the FIRST time you've opened ANY of them then you know the problems we have with electoral-vote.com, but why we still look at it... you would know that they also have a final projected map that has shown a Bush lead for quite awhile, you would know that information is continually pumped into the thread as it goes along.

And just so you know, when I started the thread I couldn't get the link to the final map to work, so I didn;t post it. Once I got it to work a few minutes later it was posted. Relax, if there is something to really be worried about, I'll state it pretty clearly.

Yes...first I opened any of them.

Than I'm sorry my friend... I assumed the people reading them are reading them daily and had seen all that.

Yeah, can't stand all the trolling of the political threads so I kind of stay out of them...saw this one was new. My bad......

Posted: 10/11/2004 7:24:17 AM EDT

[#27]

264

Just needs 1 more of those white states.

Posted: 10/11/2004 7:28:58 AM EDT

[#28]

Quoted:
Quoted:
So we might be fvcked?
nope, the guy who runs the site is a liberal and picks and chooses the polls that help kerry.

But...But....we all loved the site when GW was winning.

I dont trust any online polls. Just look at what we are able to do to them when we concentrate our efforts.

Posted: 10/11/2004 7:34:42 AM EDT

[#29]

Dave,

These aren't online polls, they are polls that are reported online. You can't vote in them online.

Posted: 10/11/2004 7:38:40 AM EDT

[#30]

Quoted:
Anybody who doesn't like it is free to post their own thread with their own data... Don;t want to read my thread, nobody is forcing you to click on it, are they? You want to see information that simply tells you what you want to hear? I've torn this site to shred's on several occassions, but even biased, it provides polling data that we might not see or think of otherwise. I will continue to post this information, as well as information from Rasmussen, Realclearpolitics, Pollingreport and other sources. Once again, you don;t want to read the thread, don't. There are others who want to see the information... all of the information... and make up their minds.

you actually stole the idea from me

www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=271352

Posted: 10/11/2004 7:40:26 AM EDT

[#31]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Anybody who doesn't like it is free to post their own thread with their own data... Don;t want to read my thread, nobody is forcing you to click on it, are they? You want to see information that simply tells you what you want to hear? I've torn this site to shred's on several occassions, but even biased, it provides polling data that we might not see or think of otherwise. I will continue to post this information, as well as information from Rasmussen, Realclearpolitics, Pollingreport and other sources. Once again, you don;t want to read the thread, don't. There are others who want to see the information... all of the information... and make up their minds.
you actually stole the idea from me
www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=271352

I'm the political guru here... I need not steal it, I'm "procuring" it...

Posted: 10/11/2004 7:42:20 AM EDT

[#32]

Quoted:
Dave,

These aren't online polls, they are polls that are reported online. You can't vote in them online.

ooooooops.

Posted: 10/11/2004 7:42:58 AM EDT

[#33]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Anybody who doesn't like it is free to post their own thread with their own data... Don;t want to read my thread, nobody is forcing you to click on it, are they? You want to see information that simply tells you what you want to hear? I've torn this site to shred's on several occassions, but even biased, it provides polling data that we might not see or think of otherwise. I will continue to post this information, as well as information from Rasmussen, Realclearpolitics, Pollingreport and other sources. Once again, you don;t want to read the thread, don't. There are others who want to see the information... all of the information... and make up their minds.
you actually stole the idea from me
www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=271352

I'm the political guru here...

if you say so.....

Posted: 10/11/2004 9:07:38 AM EDT

[#34]

One more electoral vote map showing it a win for GWB:

slate.msn.com/id/2108019/

As for electoral-vote.com... I don't see any bias there. The method just isn't great because it just relies on the latest polls. There might have been some value when there was a prediction showing the average trend of all of the polls but if you are just basing it off the last poll regardless of poll methodology then the site is not so useful.

However, even with the prediction/trend it still had some screwy outcomes like Utah going to Kerry... not bloody likely.

Posted: 10/11/2004 9:13:56 AM EDT

[#35]

The problem with electorial-vote is that they are cherry-picking which state polls to use to make Kerry look better.

Posted: 10/11/2004 9:24:47 AM EDT

[#36]

Frankly, if the idiot over at electoral-vote.com is fudging the numbers in Kerry’s favor, he IMHO is doing us a favor. (I call him an idiot based not on his numbers, but on his moronic ramblings beneath his map.)

This hopefully will energize Republicans to get out and vote.

I remember a few weeks ago when Bush was ahead several points and members here were making scary assessments of landslides and such, as if Bush’s’ election was a sure thing.

While I don’t actually want a close election, I definitely want conservatives in this country to think it’s going to be one!!

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - October electoral map unchanged

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