It's taking forever. Anyone know what the map looks like today?

Bad.

Kery 280, Bush 239.

Quoted: Bad. Kery 280, Bush 239.

I hope you are kidding. It is not possible to go from 320+ to 239 in 3 days.

Majorly skewed. See Hiram's daily thread....

Quoted: I hope you are kidding. It is not possible to go from 320+ to 239 in 3 days.

Not kidding.  Bad.

I think some liberal Dem-o-kook hacked it

They've been hacked the past couple of days.  At this point, take it with a grain of salt.  Too bad, too, because for a while it was a great tool.

The guy that started the poll said he was a liberal........plainly


It's a Trap

Quoted: I think some liberal Dem-o-kook hacked it

Based on the fact that they are reporting that Bush had a tiny transmitter for receiving messages during the debate, I would agree with you.

Actually, I think it actually IS a trap.

Here's how:   Lots of voters are sheep.   They want to be "with the crowd" to "go with the flow."    So, electoral vote.com is set up and runs a pretty clean and unbiased site through August and September, establishing some reliance among the consumers of such information.  Then, in October, they switch to very biased use of selective polls to show a "Kerry surge," which acts in part as a self fulfilling prophecy with the sheeple type undecideds who think, "well, there's all this new support for Kerry, must be the thing to do."

Electoral-vote.com is bullshit! I had been following the changes on this site but lost interest, not because it's going against Bush, but because the operator of the site has lost all claim to intellectual honesty.

On 10/6, after the VP debates, he cites, and gives credence to the MSNBC online poll that was hammered by the lefties like we hammer AWB polls.

Too bad, if it were done with integrity it would be useful.

It seems to join the left you must turn in your honor and integrity at the door. Look at the voter fraud and attempts to deny Ralph Nader a spot on the ballot in OH, PA and FL. The current Drudge report has articles on PA and FL. The FL article starts out on muslim voter issues but has some interesting facts about 527s towards the end. Here's a snip.

"Although the groups cannot formally endorse a party, most of them support Democratic causes and candidates. Of the top 10 527s, only one, the Club for Growth, is Republican-oriented.

The 527 advocacy groups use unlimited amounts of so-called soft money to buy radio and television advertisements and pay door-to-door canvassers, such as workers for America Coming Together, which has opened eight Florida field offices, including one in West Palm Beach, since July.

ACT's political action committee also supports Kerry. Millionaires George Soros and Peter Lewis collectively have donated more than $13 million to ACT and MoveOn.org, another pro-Kerry group, according to Internal Revenue Service records.

ACT and its partner, the Media Fund, supported by the Joint Victory Campaign 2004, have collected more than $53 million thus far, followed by 527s for the service employees' union, which has $16 million, and the union representing state, federal and municipal workers, with $13 million, according to IRS records released Monday. The unions also support Kerry.

Secretary of State Glenda Hood and Gov. Jeb Bush had criticized the 527 advocacy groups' voter registration efforts even before recent reports about irregularities with the applications surfaced throughout the state.

Law enforcement officials are investigating complaints, including unauthorized party affiliation changes, bogus voter registrations and forged absentee ballot requests, in St. Petersburg, Tallahassee and Miami-Dade County. A state department spokeswoman confirmed the U.S. Department of Justice is investigation allegations of voter fraud in Florida.

The Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, pushing the minimum-wage ballot initiative, is under investigation in Miami-Dade County, for possible violations including registering former felons to vote. ACORN workers are cooperating in that investigation, which the group blames on a "disgruntled ex-employee," and another in St. Petersburg, in which the group is accused of changing the former mayor's party affiliation without his knowledge, said spokesman Brian Kettenring."

Quoted: Actually, I think it actually IS a trap. Here's how:   Lots of voters are sheep.   They want to be "with the crowd" to "go with the flow."    So, electoral vote.com is set up and runs a pretty clean and unbiased site through August and September, establishing some reliance among the consumers of such information.  Then, in October, they switch to very biased use of selective polls to show a "Kerry surge," which acts in part as a self fulfilling prophecy with the sheeple type undecideds who think, "well, there's all this new support for Kerry, must be the thing to do."

Funny how, all of a sudden, after they
post the weird "all-blue" map. This
out-of-whack map shows up.

Something stinks.

We must have a statisical guru member here that could create just what this site did. It doesn't appear to be rocket science. Just collect the data and post.

I look at lots of marketing, consumer and polling data for my clients advertising efforts (some of my clients are elected officials) and in the 25 years I've been doing this, never have we seen dramactic daily shifts in data like this guy is presenting now.

Guys, understand that their projected final map, which was based on regression lines is not only a bad prediction method for opinion based data (trends mean jackshit in election projections), but its use of  certain "outlier" polls in many instances added even more "noise" to the regression formulas that further polutes the results.

My take is this:

The bottom line for this election will be just how many folks are out there who fit this profile:  folks who either sat out or voted democrat for president  in past years who changed "identification" to the republicans or at least to GWB based on 9-11 and are voting the terrorism issue as a single determinative factor   I think the numbers of such voters are much higher than anyone expects and this is why I have some faith that the Sarge is right in terms of this being an unexpected smashing of Kerry on Nov. 2.

But that all assumes GWB performs better in the debates than he did in the first one.