OCTOBER 8 ELECTORAL MAP - EV.COM IGNORES MAJOR POLLS AND TURNS TO BIASED POLLING

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - OCTOBER 8 ELECTORAL MAP - EV.COM IGNORES MAJOR POLLS AND TURNS TO BIASED POLLING

Posted: 10/8/2004 4:53:43 AM EDT

Kerry 280 Bush 239

Considering Rasmussen just released his latest electoral chart yesterday, first in a week, and showed a Bush surge... I'm going to shake my head at this latest map that ignored several major polls out yesterday that put Ohio in the Bush column, and Wisconsin is now identified at Kerry by a polling firm called Lake Snell Perry which has a (D) after its name... Every major poll I've seen puts Wisconsin in the Bush column... Arkansas... tied? Well only if you trust Zogby.

Make of it what you will... but this left-leaning website has finally showed its true colors and buckled to pressure from Dems who cried the map was too red.

Posted: 10/8/2004 4:57:11 AM EDT

[#1]

This stuff can be interesting, but with the wide variety of poll results, I avoid getting into a tizzy.

The 2 November poll is the one that counts.

Posted: 10/8/2004 4:57:44 AM EDT

[#2]

Posted: 10/8/2004 5:02:56 AM EDT

[#3]

Brohawk couldn't agree with you more, but as I have posted this every day, I'm not going to stop now just because the graphic shows a complete turn around. It has gotten to the point that the site owner is looking for the polls that will make his case, even if he needs to use those that he is forced to identify as blatantly partisan. While he is at it he should label ARG as such, but as they are not officially a Dem polling firm I can see why he doesn't.

In any event, I'm not at all worried because it is painfully clear after the events of this past week he is just projecting his desires forward. Rassmussens count is Bush 240 Kerry 169 with a whole lot of toss-ups. Rasmussed doesn't assign a state to a candidate without a 4-5 point lead, so I'll take those as better numbers, as well as consistant as they are coming out of one firm.

Posted: 10/8/2004 5:13:04 AM EDT

[#4]

Hiram, I owe you a beer.

You may have seen my thread this morning. I'm still fuming....

Posted: 10/8/2004 5:17:32 AM EDT

[#5]

Hiram-

I didn't mean to sound like I was critical of these posts. Sorry if it came out like that.

The criticism was aimed at the polls.

Regards...

Posted: 10/8/2004 5:20:22 AM EDT

[#6]

Quoted:
Rassmussens count is Bush 240 Kerry 169 with a whole lot of toss-ups. Rasmussed doesn't assign a state to a candidate without a 4-5 point lead, so I'll take those as better numbers, as well as consistant as they are coming out of one firm.

How many of those states (ECV-wise) are leaning Bush, even if by less than 4%?

Posted: 10/8/2004 7:00:26 AM EDT

[#7]

Quoted:
Rassmussens count is Bush 240 Kerry 169 with a whole lot of toss-ups. Rasmussed doesn't assign a state to a candidate without a 4-5 point lead, so I'll take those as better numbers, as well as consistant as they are coming out of one firm

It seems to me from wathching this guys site that it takes a day for him to figure in all of the polls. I think you might see Rasmussen show up tomorrow. If not then the guy is crunching numbers to appease DU. I know that DU is sending him a ton of email beating him up cuz the map has shown Bush ahead for so long.

Some of the polls I have seen have Bush up by 9 in Ohio, 7-9 in Florida and 7 in Wisconcin.

Posted: 10/8/2004 7:05:08 AM EDT

[#8]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Rassmussens count is Bush 240 Kerry 169 with a whole lot of toss-ups. Rasmussed doesn't assign a state to a candidate without a 4-5 point lead, so I'll take those as better numbers, as well as consistant as they are coming out of one firm.

How many of those states (ECV-wise) are leaning Bush, even if by less than 4%?

According to Rasmussen, of the 11 states he has as toss ups, Bush is leading in 5, Kerry in 2, and 4 are dead even. These 5 states in which Bush has a lead are worth 51 electoral vote, which would put him at 291.

You should always keep in mind that Rasmussen has a know tendency to underestimate the Republican share by a view percentage points.

The political futures markets have Bush still maintaining a decent lead. Iowa Electronic Market has Bush futures at $.56, and Intrade has them at $.59.

Posted: 10/8/2004 7:09:54 AM EDT

[#9]

i'm getting very nervous.

...somebody hold me

Posted: 10/8/2004 7:12:44 AM EDT

[#10]

Crap! Even my magic eight ball isn't helping.

Posted: 10/8/2004 7:15:19 AM EDT

[#11]

Quoted:
www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct08.png

Kerry 280 Bush 239

Considering Rasmussen just released his latest electoral chart yesterday, first in a week, and showed a Bush surge... I'm going to shake my head at this latest map that ignored several major polls out yesterday that put Ohio in the Bush column, and Wisconsin is now identified at Kerry by a polling firm called Lake Snell Perry which has a (D) after its name... Every major poll I've seen puts Wisconsin in the Bush column... Arkansas... tied? Well only if you trust Zogby.

Make of it what you will... but this left-leaning website has finally showed its true colors and buckled to pressure from Dems who cried the map was too red.

KILL THE MESSENGER!...KILL THE MESSENGER!

Posted: 10/8/2004 8:19:20 AM EDT

[#12]

I see he's pushing the "Bush had a radio receiver taped to his back" theory... does anyone know whether or not he gave equal treatment to Kerry's "mystery object being pulled out of pocket?"

--Mike

Posted: 10/8/2004 10:31:07 AM EDT

[#13]

I just got back from having my last root canal... kill the messenger... kill the messenger PLEASE!

Posted: 10/8/2004 10:49:20 AM EDT

[#14]

Zogby is an Arab, so his polling is in question, so far as I'm concerned. I think he missed the 2000 Presidential election by 2-3%?

I know that sounds prejudiced, by all the 911 hijackers were Arab, Usama is one, as are all the major players in the Terror movement (outside Chechnya, and there are Arabs there, too).

Posted: 10/8/2004 11:12:02 AM EDT

[#15]

Zogby's bias because he is an Arab is well known. His brother writes for several Arab journals and is rabidly anti-Bush. The political action committee they are involved with endorsed Kerry this week while blasting Bush. Zogby used to do a lot of work for the Republican party in NY... I know, I've been working with State Committee for years. We stopped using Zogby because of his ethical lapses in polling, for example taking on clients, conducting polls favorable to their cause and refusing to answer who hired him to do the poll or provide his methodology. Both violations of the canon of ethics by the umbrella group that provides guidance to the polling industry. He was paid big bucks by Independence Party candidate Tom Golisano to poll for him in the Governor's race and polled that Golisano would come in 2nd in a three way race... Well he came in a VERY distant third. He predicted no California recall... they had it... Prediected Gray Davis would hold on, we have Arnold... go figure!

Posted: 10/8/2004 11:31:00 AM EDT

[#16]

Quoted:
I see he's pushing the "Bush had a radio receiver taped to his back" theory... does anyone know whether or not he gave equal treatment to Kerry's "mystery object being pulled out of pocket?"

--Mike

I sent the guy an explanation of the body armor with a big pic of the president and his "bulge". Hopefully he'll figure it out now.

Posted: 10/8/2004 12:12:15 PM EDT

[#17]

Looks like Electoral Vote fixed their hacked projections... looks like the numbers are in line with what I've predicted as the final shake-out.

Kerry 203 Bush 320

Posted: 10/8/2004 1:27:50 PM EDT

[#18]

Quoted:
Looks like Electoral Vote fixed their hacked projections... looks like the numbers are in line with what I've predicted as the final shake-out.

Kerry 203 Bush 320

??? Still looks like they're showing Kerry ahead.

--Mike

Posted: 10/8/2004 2:06:53 PM EDT

[#19]

Those new polls in the battleground states and others are from no-name polling groups. And yet, on MSNBC, www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6090776/

they have him AHEAD in many state polls. Make up your own mind as to the validity of this asshat's electoral map.

Posted: 10/8/2004 3:36:58 PM EDT

[#20]

This asshat's website is useful in that it is one of the fewmaps that is updated daily so it does incorporate some of the latest data... although some, not all, is suspect. Some maps are running a week behind schedule. With three weeks to go it makes no sense to only take a look weekly. This is why it is important that you look at the latest information, but you look at it critically... in other words with an educated eye. I show the latest information and share my insights, be they what they may... although based on ten years working campaigns professionally. and allow you to decide for yourselves and even contribute insight from the local level that I and the website owner might not know. See, that is the beauty of this place, we are everywhere, so we all have something to contribute. The map is a baseline for discussion and one we have been using for awhile, so we will continue to look at it.

Posted: 10/8/2004 3:55:51 PM EDT

[#21]

Quoted:
The 2 November poll is the one that counts.

I don't think this election will be over on the 2nd...if Skerry loses, I don't think he will condede right away...

Posted: 10/8/2004 4:33:19 PM EDT

[#22]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Looks like Electoral Vote fixed their hacked projections... looks like the numbers are in line with what I've predicted as the final shake-out.

Kerry 203 Bush 320

??? Still looks like they're showing Kerry ahead.

--Mike

320 is greater than 230.

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - OCTOBER 8 ELECTORAL MAP - EV.COM IGNORES MAJOR POLLS AND TURNS TO BIASED POLLING

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