I think we'll see moderate October surprises from both parties.
I think the Dems will attempt a replay of last time's surprise, the George Bush drunk driving arrest. This time for added color I think they might trot out a couple of aged malcontentents to testify that they used to be George's drinking buddies and spin some yarns about how Georgie used to brink bourbon by the half gallon, snort up miles of coke, bang under age chicks on the pool table and then race home in his car, a rich kid above the law and out of control.
The Republican surprise will be John Kerry: Naval Officer, The Missing Years. Remember all the hubbub about Bush missing a couple of drills and a physical while he was in the Texas ANG? Well how would you like to see what Hanoi John was up to when he was in the Naval Reserve? Do you suspect he might have missed the odd drill or had a little encounter with the UCMJ here or there? There have been teasers already; for example his Paris visit with the enemy and the fact that his seperation from the service had to be upgraded in 2001. Kerry has guarded releasing those records like a pitbull on a leg bone, but I suspect that there is going be a sudden surfacing of some of those documents, if not the whole record.
There will be some damning stuff in there, mark my words.
On the flipside, I hope the Bush campaign has a counter prepped for the DUI stuff. Last time it supposedly cost Bush two or three points and I think it will be jazzed up for bigger impact this time.