October 6 Electoral Map

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[ARCHIVED THREAD] - October 6 Electoral Map

Posted: 10/6/2004 4:10:04 AM EDT

Kerry 232 Bush 285

Did our man Cheney kick ass last night or what?

Posted: 10/6/2004 4:11:21 AM EDT

[#1]

Was yesterday just a fluke?

Posted: 10/6/2004 4:12:16 AM EDT

[#2]

Fluke in what way? This map changes daily as new polls are added.

Posted: 10/6/2004 4:13:54 AM EDT

[#3]

Quoted:
Fluke in what way? This map changes daily as new polls are added.

Ah ok, I forgot about that.

Posted: 10/6/2004 4:17:15 AM EDT

[#4]

Nice map!
Hope it's true.
But the part about PA leaning towards Bush is a crock.
PA will go to Kerry. At this point, it's close to being a lock, in my humble opinion.

FWIW, I hope all you guys are laughing at me after the election.

Posted: 10/6/2004 4:29:57 AM EDT

[#5]

Quoted:
Nice map!
Hope it's true.
But the part about PA leaning towards Bush is a crock.
PA will go to Kerry. At this point, it's close to being a lock, in my humble opinion.

FWIW, I hope all you guys are laughing at me after the election.

Being a former PA resident I agree w/you.

Rendell will deliver the Union vote in Filthydelphia and Arm-Pittsburgh and PA will go Kerry.

Posted: 10/6/2004 4:42:32 AM EDT

[#6]

damn! ohio is back to blue! idiots!!!

Posted: 10/6/2004 4:44:27 AM EDT

[#7]

I hope this map isn't an indication of how Cheney is perceived to have done last night. 321 to 285? YUK!

Posted: 10/6/2004 4:51:45 AM EDT

[#8]

What the heck NM?? Get back here.

Posted: 10/6/2004 4:54:50 AM EDT

[#9]

I have found this site at the L.A. Times to be pretty good. It still favors Bush but is not as agressive in assigning the toss up states. It is interactive and you can change the white states to whatever color you wish.

Posted: 10/6/2004 5:48:48 AM EDT

[#10]

JESUS CHRIST PEOPLE THIS IS A SNAPSHOT OF POLLS. FOR THE LAST FUCKING TIME, GO TO www.electoral-vote.com AND MOVE YOUR MOUSE OVER THE STATES TO SEE WHEN THE POLLING DATA IS FROM! THERE IS NO FUCKING WAY THIS IS IN ANY WAY REPRESENTATIVE OF HOW ANYBODY DID LAST NIGHT. THESE POLLS FLUCTUTATE. CAN ANYBODY SHOW ME THE LAST TIME WE WERE BELOW 270?

Posted: 10/6/2004 5:51:47 AM EDT

[#11]

I doubt Ohio's status as shown, is correct.

The local news constantly reports that Bush is 5 to 7 points ahead in this state.

Posted: 10/6/2004 5:54:54 AM EDT

[#12]

The guy who runs the site was averaging all polls to give a more balanced number, but he has taken to going back to the most recent polling data. One day you might have a poll that shows Bush up 5, and the next day somebody else's poll comes out showing a tie, so he changes it.

My point is this, even given his questionable use of polling at times... this is a pro-Kerry site and we haven't been below 270 in ages!

Posted: 10/6/2004 6:26:34 AM EDT

[#13]

The caliban is now light blue

Posted: 10/6/2004 6:29:39 AM EDT

[#14]

Ohio, please pull your head out of your ass. Michigan, last chance to not be named "Massachussetts North".

GunLvr

Posted: 10/6/2004 6:39:31 AM EDT

[#15]

Pretty unrealistic to forecast this far, but the projected final map still says Kerry 178 - Bush 350

Posted: 10/6/2004 6:48:29 AM EDT

[#16]

look how nicely pale blue Kalifornia is getting!

Posted: 10/6/2004 6:49:34 AM EDT

[#17]

What bugs me is that his summary of media polls show people thinking that Edwards won last night...

Now, I can see the 'Kerry won the first debate' line, but Edwards? Come on...

Posted: 10/6/2004 6:54:52 AM EDT

[#18]

dave... a lot of those are on-line polls which DU spammed last night and even posted instructions on how to defeat any safeguards to prevent double voting.

The only screw-up by Cheney was that hysterical line about having never met Edwards before and then pictures surfacing of them sitting next to each other. Should have said, I've presided over the Senate for four years, and I can't recall ever running into you in the Senate chambers.

Posted: 10/6/2004 8:19:16 AM EDT

[#19]

This is where this slid to. What happened to the 300+ electoral votes?

Posted: 10/6/2004 8:21:02 AM EDT

[#20]

I'm not going to get excited about anything until Nov. 3.

Posted: 10/6/2004 8:23:10 AM EDT

[#21]

Quoted:
This is where this slid to. What happened to the 300+ electoral votes?

Since you apparently missed it, it was explained above...

The guy who runs the site was averaging all polls to give a more balanced number, but he has taken to going back to the most recent polling data. One day you might have a poll that shows Bush up 5, and the next day somebody else's poll comes out showing a tie, so he changes it.

Posted: 10/6/2004 8:27:26 AM EDT

[#22]

Quoted:
JESUS CHRIST PEOPLE THIS IS A SNAPSHOT OF POLLS. FOR THE LAST FUCKING TIME, GO TO www.electoral-vote.com AND MOVE YOUR MOUSE OVER THE STATES TO SEE WHEN THE POLLING DATA IS FROM! THERE IS NO FUCKING WAY THIS IS IN ANY WAY REPRESENTATIVE OF HOW ANYBODY DID LAST NIGHT. THESE POLLS FLUCTUTATE. CAN ANYBODY SHOW ME THE LAST TIME WE WERE BELOW 270?

Goto your happy place.....

BTW thanks for posting the map...I'm lazy...and this way by coming here I can surf the .com and get the updated map...

Posted: 10/6/2004 8:29:58 AM EDT

[#23]

Damn Minnesota is still the wrong color

Posted: 10/6/2004 8:30:50 AM EDT

[#24]

just to show how liberal leaning the guy who runs the site is:

John Edwards won the vice-presidential debate 41% to 28% among uncommitted voters according to a CBS poll. An online poll conducted by MSNBC makes the margin of Edwards victory even larger: 67% to 33%. While the MSNBC poll was not a scientific poll, it did have 885,000 responses, so it was a very large poll of Internet users.

does the moron actually believe 885 thousand people voted in an MSNBC poll!?!?

Posted: 10/6/2004 8:36:32 AM EDT

[#25]

Quoted:
Was yesterday just a fluke?

Quoted:
Fluke in what way? This map changes daily as new polls are added.

www.electoral-college.com changed methods of calculating. They changed it to a tracking poll. They started a rolling average of the last 7 days polls from each pole group. That is why there seemed to be a a sudden jump. Yesterdays map included averages from previous 7 days when Bush was higher. Now those higher days are rolling off. It will go down for a few days and then trend up because of the VP debate. The map will be less volitile but will lag by a couple of days from now on.

www.electoral-vote.com

Not a lot of change in the state polls right now. I installed new software yesterday to average recent polls per state going back 30 days. There was a create hue and cry that this was a bad thing because the race is in such a state a flux that polls that old are meaningless. In the middle of the day I changed the look-back parameter to 7 days, so now only polls within the past week are used. I agree with many readers that 30 days is too much. If I were a Republican, I would have said "I am going to stay the course, even though I am wrong." Fortunately, I am a Democrat so I can flip-flop all I want. Let's see how a 7-day look-back window works. The idea was to prevent the map from changing wildly every day. Averaging introduces some stability, but also introduces lag in responding to current events. Finding the right parameter might be tricky.

from www.electoral-vote.com

Posted: 10/6/2004 8:40:21 AM EDT

[#26]

If Kerry is elected I don't know what I'll do. I can't stand the thought of the laws and tax increases I will see. I'm already taking a 10% cut in pay to save the company, thats what the company says, plus paying more for my company insurance. This is bad if we loose this election.

Posted: 10/6/2004 8:42:31 AM EDT

[#27]

LOL, love how these guys turn flip-flopping and inconsistency into a virtue... not a tragic character flaw!

Posted: 10/6/2004 8:43:38 AM EDT

[#28]

Quoted:
damn! ohio is back to blue! idiots!!!

I am sooooo! concerned about Ohio.
If the state isn't 5% for Bush, I believe the Unions/Dems/crooks (same thing) will deliver it to Kerry with fraudulent votes in Franklin(Columbus), Cuyahoga(Cleveland), Delaware(northern Columbus), city of Akron, and probably Mahoning(Youngstown/Ausitntown) counties. The stories about fake registrations, and record registrations are treasonous, if I am interpretting them correctly.

Posted: 10/6/2004 8:46:01 AM EDT

[#29]

We need republican volunteers in every polling place INSISTING that first time voters provide ID... the sad bullshit is you can present a utility bill as identification... oh boy... if I steal utility bills between now and election day and show up at the polls, can I pretend to be Shaniqwa Jones?

Posted: 10/6/2004 9:17:57 AM EDT

[#30]

Although Pa has had the blue ring around it, I feel better when I see it leaning toward Bush. It makes me half ashamed that my home state will possibly go democrat!

Posted: 10/6/2004 10:00:28 AM EDT

[#31]

Quoted:
Quoted:
damn! ohio is back to blue! idiots!!!

I am sooooo! concerned about Ohio.
If the state isn't 5% for Bush, I believe the Unions/Dems/crooks (same thing) will deliver it to Kerry with fraudulent votes in Franklin(Columbus), Cuyahoga(Cleveland), Delaware(northern Columbus), city of Akron, and probably Mahoning(Youngstown/Ausitntown) counties. The stories about fake registrations, and record registrations are treasonous, if I am interpretting them correctly.

Hmmm. WTF is Nader still doing on the poll? He's not on the ballot in Ohio, yet shows 2.5%.

Posted: 10/6/2004 10:02:38 AM EDT

[#32]

Ramjet, aren't they in court arguing over Nader on the ballot? Plus Nader voters know they aren't going to win, they are protest voters... the kind who will likely not vote or do a write in... they are voting Nader because they hate both Bush and Kerry and are doing so even if it means Bush beats Kerry. I doubt that they will break for Kerry, or they would be there already.

Posted: 10/6/2004 10:14:35 AM EDT

[#33]

John Edwards won the vice-presidential debate 41% to 28% among uncommitted voters according to a CBS poll. An online poll conducted by MSNBC makes the margin of Edwards victory even larger: 67% to 33%. While the MSNBC poll was not a scientific poll, it did have 885,000 responses, so it was a very large poll of Internet users.

The effect of the first presidential debate is starting to kick in. Kerry is surging and Bush is dropping. Kerry has retaken the lead in all-important Ohio by 49% to 48%, New Mexico by 46% to 43%, and Iowa by 48% to 47%. While all of these are within the margin of error, previous polls had Bush ahead in these states by more than the margin of error. Clearly the forward motion Kerry has been experiencing in the national polls this week is starting to show up in the state polls as well. On the other hand, Bush has taken the lead in Pennsylvania by a margin of 48% to 47%.

The DU is on top of the polls, while the Bush supporters don't seem to care. Because of this, I'm not happy with the trend. There are two more debates. Plenty of time left to seduce the swing voters.

Posted: 10/6/2004 10:45:21 AM EDT

[#34]

From 10/03/04

Posted: 10/6/2004 10:47:20 AM EDT

[#35]

Quoted:
But the part about PA leaning towards Bush is a crock.
PA will go to Kerry.

I agree. In fact you could have called that one on Nov 12, 2000.

Posted: 10/6/2004 10:50:19 AM EDT

[#36]

Quoted:
Michigan, last chance to not be named "Massachussetts North".

GunLvr

as long as there is a UAW, Prison union, unionized big box/ grocery workers, farmers, and the welfare dregs in Lansing, flint, detroit, and grand rapids, michigan will vote Democrat. Short of publicly taking a dump on the hood of a new Lansing made Grand Am, Kerry will win Michigan.

Posted: 10/6/2004 10:51:55 AM EDT

[#37]

WOAH! CA isn't DARK blue?

KEEP THE CHANGE COMING, BOYS!

Posted: 10/6/2004 11:24:15 AM EDT

[#38]

The Kerry surge is a fabrication of the sympathetic media... they tinkered with the polls post convention to create a bump... they then swing the demographics of the polls the other way and low and behold... the lead is gone, Kerry the come back kid is surging! Kerry has big mo!

Once again, national polls mean spit... how many electoral votes do you win at the end of the day, that's ALL that matters!

Posted: 10/6/2004 11:32:45 AM EDT

[#39]

Update to earlier explaination

Quoted:
The Kerry surge is a fabrication of the sympathetic media... they tinkered with the polls post convention to create a bump... they then swing the demographics of the polls the other way and low and behold... the lead is gone, Kerry the come back kid is surging! Kerry has big mo!

Once again, national polls mean spit... how many electoral votes do you win at the end of the day, that's ALL that matters!

here is what I found out on the surge and fall-back on www.electoral-vote.com

FreeRepublic

Electoral-Vote.com is a site run by an ardent democrat which nonetheless does a pretty good job of summarizing recent polling data from reasonably reliable pollsters. Recently he switched from always using the most recent poll to using the numerical average of the last 3 polls within 7 days, citing that this would be more accurate.

However, his map turned much redder under this scheme, pushing W well over 300 electoral votes, and the people who view his website, being mostly democrats, screamed bloody murder. He promptly went back to the less accurate method of always using only the most recent poll.

One can only guess that if the new method had turned the map more blue, he would have retained it. Thus he is clearly showing his bias by tuning his methodology to get the result he wants to see.

Even so, Bush still shows 285 electoral votes as of today.

Read the 3rd paragraph from News from the Votemaster

conclusion : I'm with HiramRanger. I think www.electoral-vote.com is a manipulated site to pander to the left....

Posted: 10/6/2004 11:48:33 AM EDT

[#40]

Quoted:
Ramjet, aren't they in court arguing over Nader on the ballot? Plus Nader voters know they aren't going to win, they are protest voters... the kind who will likely not vote or do a write in... they are voting Nader because they hate both Bush and Kerry and are doing so even if it means Bush beats Kerry. I doubt that they will break for Kerry, or they would be there already.

I agree but was confused about Nadar even being a factor.

Try here.

www.onnnews.com/Global/story.asp?S=2360970&nav=LrzsRPbe

Posted: 10/6/2004 12:00:32 PM EDT

[#41]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Michigan, last chance to not be named "Massachussetts North".

GunLvr

as long as there is a UAW, Prison union, unionized big box/ grocery workers, farmers, and the welfare dregs in Lansing, flint, detroit, and grand rapids, michigan will vote Democrat.

Exactly right... my entire family and most people I work with are sKerry morons and no amount of facts will change their minds. The unions told them how to vote and that's how they'll vote... they're all dead from the neck up!

Short of publicly taking a dump on the hood of a new Lansing made Grand Am, Kerry will win Michigan.

Even then they'll still vote for him... it's a damn entitlement mentality here in 'Massachusetts North'...

Michigan makes me sick, I swear I'm moving to Texas... just picking up my guns and loading the truck and moving...

Posted: 10/6/2004 12:04:21 PM EDT

[#42]

I'd move to Texas... but too many snakes and spiders and its too fucking hot!

Posted: 10/6/2004 12:53:53 PM EDT

[#43]

Quoted:
The Kerry surge is a fabrication of the sympathetic media...

agreed.

Posted: 10/6/2004 4:24:36 PM EDT

[#44]

Quoted:
damn! ohio is back to blue! idiots!!!

Has a republican ever won without OHIO?

Posted: 10/6/2004 4:42:50 PM EDT

[#45]

Quoted:
Quoted:
damn! ohio is back to blue! idiots!!!

Has a republican ever won without OHIO?

Nope... but that doesn't mean that margins were such that losing Ohio would have changed the outcome... case in point Reagan killed Mondale... he took Ohio... did he NEED Ohio?

Posted: 10/6/2004 5:57:48 PM EDT

[#46]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
damn! ohio is back to blue! idiots!!!

Has a republican ever won without OHIO?

Nope... but that doesn't mean that margins were such that losing Ohio would have changed the outcome... case in point Reagan killed Mondale... he took Ohio... did he NEED Ohio?

Now that was an election night map!

Posted: 10/6/2004 6:00:57 PM EDT

[#47]

Quoted:
We need republican volunteers in every polling place INSISTING that first time voters provide ID... the sad bullshit is you can present a utility bill as identification... oh boy... if I steal utility bills between now and election day and show up at the polls, can I pretend to be Shaniqwa Jones?

In our state it is ILLEGAL to rrquire ID unless you are registering...

Democrat-written election law is SOOO much fun, eh?

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - October 6 Electoral Map

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