User Panel
Posted: 9/30/2004 3:24:19 PM EDT
i was doing a little mathematics and as of today there are 1054 dead and 7532 wounded. of the 7532 wounded 4083 are mamed probably not to return to acton.
1054 + 4083 = 5137 troops gone in eighteen months. the metrics show a steady rise in the rate of casualties over the 18 months, so one can extend these numbers to figure by this time next year there will be about 10,000 total casualties with over 2,000 dead. my question is how long do you think the military can sustain these numbers WITHOUT a draft? Iraq Coalition Casualty Count |
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As long as we need to.
Retention and recruiting are both up, so replacing those lost is not a hard thing. If those numbers start to fall, the simple solution is to increase pay and benifits to increase retention and recruiting. Not only is that solution cheaper than a draft, but it yields higher quality recruits. There is no need for a draft. There will be no draft. The only ones screaming draft are the left, the same ones who have no basic understanding of how the military works anyway. |
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Given current recruitment status forever. Should there be a slight decline in recruitment, forever.
I imagine that if you extrapolated the numbers of enemies we have killed, you would see that the middle east would run out of people before they forced us into a draft situation. |
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i bow to you superior logic. that was a well thought-out response. |
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See my above post, he is right. He just didn't feel like explaining it to ya. |
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My question is where the hell did you get your math skills? You are assuming that the numbers of insurgents are growing at the same rate as our casulty figures. You seem to have overlooked the fact that our guys are killing a hell of a lot of their guys. When do you suppose Sadr will start his draft? |
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Dead and wounded is not the problem, the problem is keeping up the op tempo, and the problems with recruitment and retention. I don't think there will ever be a draft.
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Funny, these are the same people that fought to get rid of the draft during the Vietnam War, so why the f'ck do they want it back. Red Ted Kennedy was in the Senate at that time. |
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Because its a scare tactic. The more they bring it up, even though it will not happen, the more they get the "soccer mom" who votes based on emotion rather than logic to vote for Kerry. |
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Legislation has been introduced:
S89 and HR163 - Universal National Service Act thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d108:SN00089:@@@L&summ2=m& Some claim the draft could be reinstated as early as Spring 2005. Sounds like they are trying to keep it hush until after elections. Many editorial and commentary pages on web via search. |
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They don't want a draft, they want to be able to accuse the right of wanting one, so they came up with a couple of screwball bills, got them shitcanned, and now use every chance the get to get a "gonna be a draft" sound byte in the air, knowing that it will be automatically assumed to be a Republican plan. |
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Do some homework and quit beliving fowarded emails.... That bill was proposed by democrats, has no chance of passing, and never did. See my above post. Its a scare tactic, pure and simple.... I see you bought it hook, line, and sinker. BTW, Latest Major Action: 1/7/2003 |
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Did you actually read who introduced this bill? Please do. |
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Please go and check the status of these bills and report the date of the last action taken on either of them, while you are at it why don't you look into the sponsors of the bills. This crap was introduced as ammunition for agitators, and thanks to internet gunslingers who are a bit to quick on the the paln has worked out better than the idiots who thought it up could have ever hoped for. |
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Hard to say. Stop gap measure like extended deployments, extended contracts, deploying reserves and national guard, and recalling ready reserves cause long term harm. Every involunatarily extended deployement results in more people opting out rather than re-enlisting.
I think they could probubly keep troops there 10 years max, before the military turns into a burned out shell filled with petty crooks and drug addicts who never should have been accepted. If they bump to pay WAY up, offer 2-year enlistments, and limit deployments to only 6-months of that two year enlistment, they may be able to recruit enough people. |
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We must be reading different news sources. From what i have read only the Navy is meeting its recruiting goals. People are leaving the army in droves. |
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Yes, he's reading the accurate sources. |
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please explain to me how retention replaces 6,000 per year. retention to me means that the military retains someone they already have. that is like saying you profit by a dollar, simply because you didnt lose a dollar you already had -- makes no sense. if you need, lets say, 50,000 troops and you loose 6,000 and retain ALL the rest, dont you still need 5,000 NEW recruits?
could you, or someone else, point me to some current recruiting stats. i searched the net and couldnt find any current numbers. |
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We must also be reading different news stories. According to KA3B only the National Guard is having trouble recruiting (since combat is a certanty why NOT go regular for two or three years) and the AF and Navy are laying people off... |
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It was very well thought out. Your question, however, was not. The casualties went up in a certain period and then down again. They aren't increasing geometrically and your assumptions are incorrect. |
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All I have seen seems to indicate that for the most part recruiting and retention goals are being met. Some NG and USAR units are seeing some very high loss rates after deployments, especially those who were deployed back to back, but most of them are on target as well.
Here at FLW the BT barracks are overcrowded. usmilitary.about.com/b/a/099326.htm First link I found on google, too lazy to dig for more. |
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Oddball, you have not the slightest clue what you are talking about AGAIN.
Do you realize that in our past wars we had DAYS where we lost as many men as we have lost in nearly two YEARS in Iraq? To talk about "high casualties" and "Iraq" in the same sentence is stupidity... |
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Very true we lost as many in the just the rehearsal for Operation Overlord as we have in going on 2 years of war. |
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you do not even know what you are talking about. read the stats BEFORE you type. you must have failed statistics class. |
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You seem to be having selective reading problems. I said RECRUITING AND RETENTION. You see, those two go hand in hand. The more soldiers you retain, the fewer you have to replace. Therefore, more of your recruiting effort and the recruits it yields can go to replacing the ones you have lost. It's that simple. If you have 50 employees and 3 get killed, you need three, If you have 50 and three get killed and five quit, then you need to find 8. So retention helps you meet your recruiting goals by keeping the numbers you need to replace down. Did I make it simple enough for you?
Google is your friend. I found an article in 30 seconds and posted it. |
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high casualties with respect to how many are in uniform is the point .....and how many were in uniform at that time, hmmmmm? pretty easy to sustain 6,000 casualties when the numbers of troops in theater are in the 500,000 to 1,000,000+ so i would have to say that it is you who show your raging ignorance |
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Just WHAT do you think the current size of the US Army is? |
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If you have 50 employees and 3 get killed, you need three, If you have 50 and three get killed and five quit, then you need to find 8. So retention helps you meet your recruiting goals by keeping the numbers you need to replace down. Did I make it simple enough for you? actually no, because you seem to miss the whole point. the three that quit aside how do you replace the 5? so, if your numbers keep dwindling how does retention OFFSET casualties? |
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reinstate the draft everyone should serve 2
do a lot for discipline in the young generation and give them an appreciation for what they got plus make more gun lovers.. |
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Some say the moon is made of cheese. |
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Your are. The Air Force is fine, the regular Army is fine, and according to the SSGt at the Marine recruiting office in Santa Clarita that I talked to yesterday, THEY are fine. It is the Army Guard / Reservists with already established civilian lives that cannot sustain the financial or seperation from their families hit that year-long deployments entail. That, and a few pussies that signed up strictly to suckle the FedGov teat and bleat now that the bill is due. |
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Yes, I know the bill was introduced in Jan03 by the Dems, and is now bouncing in the never-land of committees. Do I believe it could ever pass?.. HELL NO, as long as we keep republican control of congress and senate. My intent was not to incite "fear mongering", only to emphasize the importance of our votes this fall. I apologize to All for not clearly stating "my" opinion on the matter. I fully agree with Garand_Shooter on Recruitment/Retention. Lighten Up. |
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From June 6 to Novemeber 14, 1944 we lost 29,000 troops, and thats just the Army and just Europe. Any way you crinch the numbers, per captita either in theater or in service, this confilct has a lower casulty rate of any extended conflict in our history. |
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Well written. Furthermore, a draft would produce bad soldiers and decrease op-temp, etc. Congress won't let the Pentagon raise more formations. That is the problem hitting the Reserves and NG. If anything, time to raise a few more combat formations. |
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currently 1.4 mil active and 1 mil reserve total. wwII in 1945 the army alone was in excess of 8 mil. 6,000 lost from 2.4 mil is a far greater loss in numbers than 6,000 from the 8 million. |
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'Retention' means that existing military members choose to RE-enlist when their obligation is fulfilled. Thus, the 44,000 'rest' in your example RE-join, removing the need for 44,000 fresh recruits on the front end. When both the first-time enlistment rates are at decades high levels AND the re-enlistment levels are higher than they've been in past decades, that shoots the shit out of any manufactured 'Draft' crisis. Another factoid - The Navy is offerring something like 30,000 early discharges, because their manpower needs are overfilled. |
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You replace your losses with recruiting. Just like you replace thsoe you don't retain. However, high retention rates make recruiting to replace those 5 easier, because it means you don't have to replace soldiers that leave the service. It is easier to recruit 50,000 a year than 70,000, so every soldier you retain is a new one you don't have to recruit a replacement for. Hell, we had bad retention years during the Clinton years where we were short of our retention goals by well over 10k.... and we replaced them by recruiting too. |
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