It always has been and always will be.

But we have this choice.
Fight them there or fight them here.  

We need to stay the course.

Here you go dickhead.

Looks to be authentic! (I'm not Dan Rather!)



Posted at 3:35 PM, Pacific

From a Marine Corps Major in Baghdad:

"A thought from Iraq - "Doom & Gloom about Iraq's future....I don't see it from where I'm sitting."

[For those of you who haven't gotten my "Thoughts" before, I'm a Major in the USMC on the Multi-National Corps staff in Baghdad. The analysts and pundits who don't see what I see on a daily basis, in my opinion, have very little credibility to talk about the situation - especially if they have yet to set foot in Iraq. Everything Americans believe about Iraq is simply perception filtered through one's latent prejudices until you are face-to-face with reality. If you haven't seen, or don't remember, the John Wayne movie, The Green Berets , you should watch it this weekend. Pay special attention to the character of the reporter, Mr. Beckwith (the Journalist in the movie) . His characters experience is directly related to the situation here. You'll have a different perspective on Iraq after the movie is over.]

The US media is abuzz today with the news of an intelligence report that is very negative about the prospects for Iraq's future. CNN's website says, "[The] National Intelligence Estimate was sent to the White House in July with a classified warning predicting the best case for Iraq was 'tenuous stability' and the worst case was civil war." That report, along with the car bombings and kidnappings in Baghdad in the past couple days are being portrayed in the media as more proof of absolute chaos and the intransigence of the insurgency.

From where I sit, at the Operational Headquarters in Baghdad, that just isn't the case. Let's lay out some background, first about the "National Intelligence Estimate." The most glaring issue with its relevance is the fact that it was delivered to the White House in July . That means that the information that was used to derive the intelligence was gathered in the Spring - in the immediate aftermath of the April battle for Fallujah, and other events. The report doesn't cover what has happened in July or August, let alone September.

The naysayers will point to the recent battles in Najaf and draw parallels between that and what happened in Fallujah in April. They aren't even close. The bad guys did us a HUGE favor by gathering together in one place and trying to make a stand. It allowed us to focus on them and defeat them. Make no mistake, Al Sadr's troops were thoroughly smashed. The estimated enemy killed in action is huge. Before the battles, the residents of the city were afraid to walk the streets. Al Sadr's enforcers would seize people and bring them to his Islamic court where sentence was passed for religious or other violations. Long before the battles people were looking for their lost loved ones who had been taken to "court" and never seen again. Now Najafians can and do walk their streets in safety. Commerce has returned and the city is being rebuilt. Iraqi security forces and US troops are welcomed and smiled upon. That city was liberated again. It was not like Fallujah - the bad guys lost and are in hiding or dead.

You may not have even heard about the city of Samarra. Two weeks ago, that Sunni Triangle city was a "No-go" area for US troops. But guess what? The locals got sick of living in fear from the insurgents and foreign fighters that were there and let them know they weren't welcome. They stopped hosting them in their houses and the mayor of the town brokered a deal with the US commander to return Iraqi government sovereignty to the city without a fight. The people saw what was on the horizon and decided they didn't want their city looking like Fallujah in April or Najaf in August.

Boom, boom, just like that two major "hot spots" cool down in rapid succession. Does that mean that those towns are completely pacified? No. What it does mean is that we are learning how to do this the right way. The US commander in Samarra saw an opportunity and took it - probably the biggest victory of his military career and nary a shot was fired in anger. Things will still happen in those cities, and you can be sure that the bad guys really want to take them back. Those achievements, more than anything else in my opinion, account for the surge in violence in recent days - especially the violence directed at Iraqis by the insurgents. Both in Najaf and Samarra ordinary people stepped out and took sides with the Iraqi government against the insurgents, and the bad guys are hopping mad. They are trying to instill fear once again. The worst thing we could do now is pull back and let that scum back into people's homes and lives.

So, you may hear analysts and prognosticators on CNN, ABC and the like in the next few days talking about how bleak the situation is here in Iraq, but from where I sit, it's looking significantly better now than when I got here. The momentum is moving in our favor, and all Americans need to know that, so please, please, pass this on to those who care and will pass it on to others. It is very demoralizing for us here in uniform to read & hear such negativity in our press. It is fodder for our enemies to use against us and against the vast majority of Iraqis who want their new government to succeed. It causes the American public to start thinking about the acceptability of "cutting our losses" and pulling out, which would be devastating for Iraq for generations to come, and Muslim militants would claim a huge victory, causing us to have to continue to fight them elsewhere (remember, in war "Away" games are always preferable to "Home" games). Reports like that also cause Iraqis begin to fear that we will pull out before we finish the job, and thus less willing to openly support their interim government and US/Coalition activities. We are realizing significant progress here - not propaganda progress, but real strides are being made. It's terrible to see our national morale, and support for what we're doing here, jeopardized by sensationalized stories hyped by media giants whose #1 priority is advertising income followed closely by their political agenda; getting the story straight falls much further down on their priority scale, as Dan Rather and CBS News have so aptly demonstrated in the last week.  

From StrategyPage.com

September 23, 2004: While al Qaeda manages to set off one or more suicide bombs a day in Iraq, it finds itself losing the war it is waging. The bombs are killing mainly Iraqis, and the Iraqis have noticed this. Al Qaeda expects the Iraqi Islamic radicals to benefit from the bombing campaign. But the only Iraqi Islamic radicals that support al Qaeda are the Sunni Arab ones, and these are a minority of the Sunni Arab (20 percent of the population) minority. Moreover, most of the muscle, and money, for anti-government violence comes from Sunni Arab supporters of the Baath Party. Saddam Hussein led the Baath Party for over three decades. While Saddam is locked up, as are most of the senior Baath Party leaders, the thousands of thugs and enforcers that maintained Baath's control over Iraq are still out there. Many of these guys are still doing what they have always done; terrorizing Iraqis into supporting Baath, or at least not opposing it. Baath has cleverly shaped it's message to sound like a patriotic call to "expel foreign invaders." But most Iraqis are not fooled. Opinion polls consistently show that over 80 percent of the population wants nothing to do with Baath. Yet the only alternative to a democratic government is Baath, or a religious dictatorship. Al Qaeda makes itself unpopular by killing hundreds of Iraqis with suicide bombs. Baath makes itself hated with its continued terror campaign, kidnapping and assassinations. The terror tactics of al Qaeda and Baath have succeeded in some other Arab countries, much to the dismay of the locals. Syria is the only other country run by the Baath Party, and it is another Republic of Fear. Iran is dominated by Islamic conservatives, who rule by intimidation and terror. Afghanistan, when ruled by the Islamic conservative Taliban, also suffered under unpopular applications of intimidation and terror.

For centuries, Western democracies have considered the Arabs unable, or incapable of creating a democratic government, or any government that did not depend on terror and intimidation to maintain order. This debate continues, although in a more carefully worded fashion. It's not just the Baath Party and al Qaeda that have a vested interest in seeing democracy fail in Iraq. However, if you talk to a lot of people who deal with Iraqis on a regular basis (military civil affairs, reconstruction workers, troops in general) and Iraqis themselves, you find that while Iraqis still fear Baath and al Qaeda, they still want to try democracy. Iraqis know what goes on in the West. Millions of Iraqis have fled to the West (Europe and North America) in the last two decades, and the migrants have made it clear to the folks back home how democracy works. While Iraqi culture puts more emphasis on believing rumors and outrageous conspiracy theories, you still have to eat. Most Iraqis believe that a government "of the people, by the people and for the people," would be better at putting food on the table, and a DVD player on top of the new TV set, than some Baath Party thug or religious leader.

Al Qaeda will fight on until the last of their members is rounded up by Iraqi police. But al Qaeda have already lost their war in Iraq.

September 22, 2004: Anti-government terrorists have increased their use of hostage taking, and attempts at extortion, to destroy the government. Over 130 foreigners have been taken so far, and in the past two days, two American civilians held were killed and beheaded. Iraqis are being beheaded as well, especially in an attempt to demoralize Iraqi security forces. For a month or so, terrorists gave up murdering, and especially beheading, hostages. This was because of the negative reaction of the world media, especially the Moslem media, to beheadings, and the murder of hostages. The terrorists have gone back to kidnapping and tried to compensate by making more "noble" demands. For example, several groups of kidnappers have demanded that the coalition release all its female prisoners. This has backfired, as the only female prisoners are two senior members of Saddam's government. The terrorists have ignored this fact, and demanded the release of imaginary female prisoners. Increasingly, the terrorists are quietly switching their demands to money, and quietly taking the cash and releasing the foreigners (who bring in a lot more money than Iraqis.) But the Iraqis continue to bear the brunt of the kidnapping efforts. The Sunni Arab gangs are particularly bad, because they can take their victims to places like Fallujah, where there are no Iraqi police. The Shia gangs are taking a beating, and the only Kurdish group that is causing problems is the Ansar al Islam (a small group of pro al Qaeda Kurds), which receives support, and sanctuary, from Iran.

The largely Sunni Arab backed violence has caused much hatred for Sunnis among the majority Shia and Kurds. This has led to more sectarian murders, including two senior Sunni clerics who lived in mixed Sunni/Shia areas. In the months following the fall of Saddam's government, dozens of Saddam officials (mostly Sunni Arabs living in Shia areas) were killed by Shias seeking revenge. Since then, most of these Sunnis fled back to Sunni strongholds like Fallujah. But there are still over a million Sunnis living in close proximity to Shias in the south. While Shia and Sunni down there try to keep the peace, memories are long, and bloody.

September 20, 2004: The reality is that most of the violence in Iraq comes from a minority of the Sunni Arab minority who are willing to kill because they either want a religious dictatorship (like the one next door in Iran, except with Sunni clerics in charge), or from members of the Baath Party that was, until recently, led by Saddam Hussein. Now you would think that this bunch of cutthroats, whose favorite tactics are kidnapping or threatening unarmed civilians, would be widely reviled. Nope. They are the underdogs, and have been labeled in the media as "insurgents." Since many countries, and their media, opposed the removal of Saddam Hussein from power, the "insurgents" get favorable press. Very favorable press. Iraq's problem
with it's armed anti-democracy groups is described as "widespread unrest," despite the fact that it is confined to that third of the country (most of it desert) that is dominated by the Sunni Arab minority (about 20 percent of the population). The Baath Party and Islamic radical leaders can read, and make the most of their status as "freedom fighters." OK, that last tag isn't used very often, as even most journalists gag at so describing two groups so openly dedicated to restoring dictatorship. The anti-government forces and Islamic radicals keep their agendas out of the press as much as possible. Instead, they go on about wanting to "drive out the occupiers." Opinion polls of the entire population consistently state that the majority want the foreign troops to stay until the Sunni Arab gunmen are put down. American policy is to get out as soon as the Iraqi majority has a large enough security force to deal with the remnants of the old dictatorship, and their new allies from al Qaeda and other Islamic radical groups. But this isn't news. That most of Iraq is at peace isn't news. That the reconstruction of Iraq has brought a better life to the majority of Iraqis isn't news. That the anti-government forces have no chance of prevailing isn't news. That American troops have fought a spectacularly successful military campaign (check the historical record for details) isn't news. That the Iraqi "insurgents" are mainly war criminals, gangsters and terrorists isn't news. What is news are headlines that have been consistently wrong since before the war began. What is news is what news directors feel will generate the greatest fear, uncertainty and doubt among their audience. That's what gets people's attention. That's the way the news business has always been. The mass media news business is only some 150 years old, and early on, competitive editors realized that the colorful lie was more profitable than the drab truth. There are those who quickly realized that they could use this fact of life to their advantage. So today, dictators and terrorist organizations hire publicists to get themselves the most useful (if not truthful) portrayal in the media. When it comes to mass violence, playing the press is just another weapon. It worked for Saddam, it's working for his bloody minded supporters, who are still willing to kill for Saddams ideals.

But now they are "insurgents" and "freedom fighters." After they are defeated, they will go back to being thugs. And the media will march on, secure in the knowledge that selective amnesia is their friend.

September 19, 2004: Anti-government forces are desperately trying to shatter the morale of police and reconstruction personnel. But suicide bombing attacks on police facilities, and gun battles against police patrols in Sunni Arab areas have not worked. The police continue to recruit, and police patrols grow larger and more aggressive as they move into Sunni Arab neighborhoods in cities like Baghdad, Kirkuk and Mosul, and arrest known, or suspected, terrorists and armed anti-government activists. There is less aversion, among the majority of Iraqis, to playing rough with the Sunni Arabs who comprise nearly all the anti-government forces. A growing network of informers in Sunni controlled areas provide targets for daily bombing attacks on buildings the anti-government forces are using. The government has said that it will hold national elections, as scheduled, even if voting is not possible in some Sunni Arab areas. It's thought that an 80-90 percent vote is better than a delayed vote. This is because a national vote will be concrete proof, to dubious Shia Arab Iraqis, that Saddam is truly gone, even if thousands of Saddam's thugs are still running around killing people. The vote will also make it clear just how much power the Kurds hold, on a national scale, and get started negotiations to sort out how much autonomy the Kurds will have in a predominately Arab country.

September 17, 2004: The anti-government forces feel they are winning with their terror tactics. This is a misleading assessment, but typical of the Arab nationalists and religious zealots who comprise most of the armed opposition. These folks keep score by watching the TV news, which explains why they are so detached from reality. While the terror tactics have had a noticeable effect on reporters, UN staff and other non-participants in Iraqi reconstruction, the Iraqis themselves are undeterred by the violence. Same for coalition troops and most foreign workers. The average Iraqi wants the new government to succeed, because the alternative is a return to the tyranny of the past. The terror tactics are not working against the Iraqis, so the anti-government forces are concentrating more on foreigners. This means more foreigners are being kidnapped. This is a pure desperation play, as it's the resolve of the Iraqi people that will determine this civil war. While Saddam was defeated and captured, the hundreds of thousands of thugs who kept him in power are still out there, and still fighting to get their power, and jobs, back.

September 16, 2004: Acts of terrorism against Iraqis, especially Sunni Arabs, is on the increase. Yesterday, the headless bodies of three Iraqi men were found outside Baghdad. Beheading enemies is an old Iraqi terror tactic. Over a dozen suicide bombings in the last week have been directed against Sunni Arabs in central Iraq. The anti-government forces, which are nearly all Sunni Arab, can most easily travel in Sunni Arab areas. Trying to move through Kurdish or Shia territory is very difficult. The Kurds, in particular, have a heavily armed and alert militia. The most successful Iraqi police and security forces have been organized among the Shia Arabs. While the religious militias, particularly the al Sadr group, have presented some problems, none are into terrorism and murder on the scale of the Sunni Arab groups. The Iraqi Sunnis are trying to scare the majority of Sunni Arabs into supporting an effort to regain control of Iraq. Disrupting Iraq's economy will make it clear that without Sunni Arabs in charge, there will be no prosperity.

The current government is living in the shadow of centuries of Sunni Arab domination. Although the Sunni Arabs are less than twenty percent of the population, their reputation for ruthlessness and brutality are burned into the memories of all Iraqis. Saddam Hussein was simply the last in the long line of Sunni Arab tyrants. Even centuries of Turkish domination of the region did not keep the Sunni Arabs from power. The Turks respected the adroit use of terror, brutality and brains by the Sunni Arabs. The Turks never could figure out exactly what was going on in the Arab mind, and preferred to let the locals rule themselves. Keep things quiet and pay your taxes, and the Turkish army won't pay you a destructive visit.

Although the great medieval Moslem military leader Saladin was a Kurd, the Kurds have been uneasy neighbors with the Sunni Arabs for over a thousand years. The Kurds have never been dominant, although for the last decade, they have been independent of the Sunni Arabs. And they want to keep it that way. But that will require cooperation with Shia Arabs, a group that has been terrorized and dominated by Sunni Arabs, even though the Shia are the majority of the population in Iraq. But few Shia Iraqis are interested in Islamic radicalism or al Qaeda. That's a Sunni Arab disease and firebrands like Muqtada al Sadr have been rejected. Al Sadr is publicly compared to Saddam Hussein, because of al Sadr's use of terror and brute force to control people.

On paper, the government should be able to easily crush the Sunni Arab resistance. After all, a majority of the Sunni Arabs want no more tyranny, but Sunnis or anyone else. But old habits, and fears, die hard. Each car bomb, each kidnapping, each bombastic press release, reminds all Iraqis that their ancient oppressors are still around, and still inflicting pain. The Sunni Arabs are accustomed to ruling Iraq, and inflicting pain is their oldest, and most effective tool for getting their way. The government knows that Iraqis have to fight, and defeat, the Sunni Arab terrorists, because only Iraqis can easily identify them. The Iraqi majority has to confront their past, and defeat it. Only then will the past be dead, and not a nightmare that returns again and again.

September 15, 2004: The U.S. is going to shift several billion dollars in reconstruction money to building up security forces in the Sunni Arab areas of central Iraq. While reconstruction efforts move ahead in the Kurdish north and the Shia Arab south, the continued violence by Baath Party supporters and al Qaeda supporters in central Iraq has delayed many reconstruction projects in Sunni Arab communities. The Sunni Arabs, who were favored during the long reign of Saddam Hussein (a Sunni Arab himself), are angry at losing power, and even more dismayed as they note the growing prosperity, and peace, among the Kurds and Shia they long ruled. Although a minority in the country (about 20 percent of the population), the Sunni Arab tribes control most of central and western Iraq. The way the media covers the Sunni Arab violence, you get the impression that the entire country is in flames. But in most of Iraq, American civil affairs teams, and civilian aid workers report no violence or unrest at all. That, however is not news. Sunni Arab terrorists are news, and it's mostly Sunni Arabs who are being called on to fight the violence. Despite the attacks on local police (who are recruited locally) and civilians who support the government, resistance to "the resistance" is everywhere. Most Iraqis don't want the 20th century tyranny of Saddam, or the 14th century lifestyle of al Qaeda.

September 14, 2004: In Baghdad, a car bomb went off near a police station, killing at least 35. Bombing attacks against al Qaeda targets in Fallujah continue, indicating a steady supply of target information coming out of that Sunni Arab city. The car bombs are all the work of al Qaeda, which is dominated by foreigners, and is much hated by most Iraqis. Al Qaeda still has the support of Sunni Arab religious conservative groups. But these fellows, who want a religious dictatorship, are none too popular themselves. The government is not happy with the situation, because the average Iraqi expects the government to magically solve all economic problems and make the violence go away just as quickly. The government is now getting the criticism that the United States was getting. The wave of self-criticism and logical thinking that is sweeping the Arab world, has not become an issue in Iraq. Here, people have long considered al Qaeda a bunch of butchers, mainly because the terrorist bombs have killed so many Iraqis. But all the other fantasies, from the Mossad and CIA ability to do anything, to the Jewish Cabal that runs the world, still hold sway. Will all this turn into a functioning democracy by next year? No one really knows, although a significant number of Iraqis are betting that it will. But first the civil war must be concluded.