I've seen Dick Morris on several shows talking about Kerry's problems in winning the White House. Here's the article laying out the issues. A pretty good read.

www.thehill.com/morris/091504.aspx


[SNIP]

The debates will change all that. With both candidates facing the camera and addressing the nation, what was a referendum will probably become more of an election, with each candidate judged on his own merits. Bush has only to come across positively to make inroads into the Kerry vote, while the challenger must go back to square one and use the debates to sell himself to his own supporters. In a sense, Kerry will have to backfill what he should have already accomplished in his year of candidacy.

Kerry’s second problem is that he is sharply limited in the issues he can use to sell himself to his voters. Kerry voters tend to disagree with one another on most of the key foreign-policy issues in the campaign.

About half of his supporters, according to pre-GOP-convention polling by Fox News, reject the idea that the war in Iraq is an integral part of the war on terror and see it as a diversion from the central task. They say they believe we should emphasize withdrawing our troops as soon as possible.

But 35 to 40 percent of Kerry’s voters sharply disagree and see the war as essential to the battle against terror and want us to stay there until we finish the job. Either position Kerry takes will cost him votes. Ralph Nader’s presence in most of the battleground states on Kerry’s left flank only accentuates the dilemma the Democratic candidate faces.
[END SNIP}

WOW!  I have something in common with Kerry supporters....I don't like him either!