WTNT44 KNHC 152051
TCDAT4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF COLD EYEWALL
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE...AND A CLEARING OUT OF
THE EYE. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED AN
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 933 MB...AND THE NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK
WINDS AT 7000 FT OF 132 KT. UNDERNEATH THAT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND THE
STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER REPORTED 108 KT. IT APPEARS
THAT IVAN IS BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO THE WARM POOL OVER WHICH IT
HAS BEEN TRAVERSING TODAY. THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE NOT YET INCREASED
BUT MAY DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATERS EXIST JUST OFFSHORE...AND LITTLE NET CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

IVAN REMAINS BASICALLY ON TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED
AT 355/12. THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST...WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED IN ABOUT 9 HOURS. HOWEVER...IVAN
HAS A VERY LARGE WINDFIELD AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL MOVE ONSHORE
MUCH SOONER THAN THAT. THE ECMWF MODEL FINALLY GAVE UP ON A NEW
ORLEANS LANDFALL TODAY...RESULTING IN A WELL-CLUSTERED GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE UNTIL WELL AFTER LANDFALL...WHERE THERE ARE A VARIETY OF
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMNANTS OF IVAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLOODING EVENT OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF IVAN CAN BE EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS WELL INLAND...PERHAPS 150 MILES OR SO.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 28.4N 88.3W 115 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 30.2N 88.3W 115 KT...ON THE COASTLINE
24HR VT 16/1800Z 32.2N 88.0W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 17/0600Z 33.8N 87.2W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 17/1800Z 35.0N 86.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 18/1800Z 36.0N 84.0W 20 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 19/1800Z 36.0N 84.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

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WTNT34 KNHC 152041
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 54
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IVAN BEARING DOWN ON NORTHERN GULF
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.





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Stay safe everyone. If you are in the path, get out NOW!

I am more than 300 miles away and the tide it almost over my sea wall.

He's a bigun!

What does the yellow on the map mean?

I would like to see the effects of a Cat4 or Cat5 on New Orleans, they say 50,000 people will drown and should be under 20' of water.

On the other hand, I hope it mixes more with the warm air, reducing in strength.

Quoted: I would like to see the effects of a Cat4 or Cat5 on New Orleans, they say 50,000 people will drown and should be under 20' of water. On the other hand, I hope it mixes more with the warm air, reducing in strength.

You'd like to see that, would you?

Quoted: I would like to see the effects of a Cat4 or Cat5 on New Orleans, they say 50,000 people will drown and should be under 20' of water. On the other hand, I hope it mixes more with the warm air, reducing in strength.

Quoted: I would like to see the effects of a Cat4 or Cat5 on New Orleans, they say 50,000 people will drown and should be under 20' of water. On the other hand, I hope it mixes more with the warm air, reducing in strength.

Please tell me you fucked up typing this? There has got to be an excuse for such an assnine statement from a human being.

Quoted: I would like to see the effects of a Cat4 or Cat5 on New Orleans, they say 50,000 people will drown and should be under 20' of water.

Yeah.  It's probably not going to hit NO though.  Still, this is a good one to watch.  Winds are still holding strong.. lots of rain for the Southeast.. dangerous flooding.  Mother nature can be a mother!

Quoted: Quoted: I would like to see the effects of a Cat4 or Cat5 on New Orleans, they say 50,000 people will drown and should be under 20' of water. Yeah.  It's probably not going to hit NO though.  Still, this is a good one to watch.  Winds are still holding strong.. lots of rain for the Southeast.. dangerous flooding.  Mother nature can be a mother!

Are you agreeing with this turd of a post?

Quoted: What does the yellow on the map mean?

The key to each color is listed on the pic.

Sixty people were killed in Grenada and the Cayman Islands.  Cuba was "nicked" by Ivan and they're missing dozens of people.

The eye of Ivan is about 110 miles from the coast.  Expect it late tonight after midnight.  Ivan's front has already hit and coastal towns are suffering.

I would like to see the effects of 8 or greater earthquake on CA , They say thousands of people will die and CA will slide into the ocean.

This is a cat. 3 hurricane.  It will hit as a cat. 3 and will become cat. 1 about mid to upper Alabama.

Quoted: I would like to see the effects of 8 or greater earthquake on CA , They say thousands of people will die and CA will slide into the ocean.

Don't do that brother. You're better than that. I can't believe these guys haven't come back groveling with apologies for mistyping this shit!

Yea I should of have not type that but it gets to me for people to think it is cool to see thousands of people drown. I am 35 miles from NO and will have to respond to any emergency to our pipelines running thru the area.

2 down in florida!  Tornados are going to be hitting hard and fast with this one.

Can't get any more updates from pro-weather.com.. trying to get some contacts on the ham radio.

Geez...hang tight people!

Current Position
28.4°N 88.3°W

WTNT34 KNHC 152255
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 54A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IVAN BEARING DOWN ON NORTHERN GULF
COAST...

AT 6 PM CDT...2300Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS CENTERED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES
SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA COASTLINE.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE VERY LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT IVAN
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE
OR HIGHER. OCCUPANTS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED AT THE
SURFACE...ABOUT ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY HIGHER AT THE TOP OF A
30-STORY BUILDING. AFTER LANDFALL... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD
TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO ABOUT 150 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER.

PEOPLE ARE STRONGLY ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT FROM SHELTER DURING
THE CALM CONDITIONS OF THE EYE...AS WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING WHEN THE EYE PASSES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 290 MILES. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 51 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 63 MPH WERE
RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE DAUPHIN ISLAND C-MAN STATION.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.

TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. SOME
TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


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Quoted: Quoted: I would like to see the effects of 8 or greater earthquake on CA , They say thousands of people will die and CA will slide into the ocean. Don't do that brother. You're better than that. I can't believe these guys haven't come back groveling with apologies for mistyping this shit!

Don't tell me yet another bad hair day for the great know all Pangea!  Maybe it's time to add a little more spit to your comb

This is a quote from New Orleans.  When Ivan hits, and it's a cat4 or 5, they predict the the salad bowl shape to collect 20' of water and drown 50,000 residents.  I don't believe it, anyone else have an issue with this description?

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Prays sent for New Orleans, as well as everyone else.

These reports about a sea level surge in Orleans are SCARY


- BG

I lost cable about an hour ago...winds are picking up, rain is not that bad. Our highway 98 on the beachside has been breeched and is under water. There are many waterfront structures in Destin, under water. There have been reports of a tornandao destroying a restauraunt in Panama city. It's just beginning, should make landfall at around 1:00 a.m. cst. Mobile is the bullseye.

I took some awesome pics of the Gulf this afternoon...angry ocean right now. 12-15 foot waves pounding th beach.

I am ondial-up  right now..so don't know how long I can post.

Later.

Updates will be posted as soon as they are issued by the National Weather Service.

No, you're doing a great job.. keep it updated! I'm reading it.

Just saw a report on the weather channel saying there are 45 ft waves just ahead of the eye.....good luck to anyone down south...my thoughts and wishes are with you

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Quoted: No, you're doing a great job.. keep it updated! I'm reading it.

Thank you.  I'll post the updates as soon as they are issued.  

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Nothing crazy to report here in Mobile, yet...

Keep posting.

It's headed my way.


Balming

000
WTNT51 KNHC 152359
TCEAT
HURRICANE IVAN POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

AT 7 PM CDT....0000Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS CENTERED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA COASTLINE.

FORECASTER PASCH

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Quoted: Keep posting. It's headed my way. Balming

Keep yourself and the family safe!!!

I`m in Pensacola. It`s progressing along, getting a little tougher, hopeing i keep power. Iheard they had several tornados in panama city, 2 officers injured. Tornado warnings in my county (escambia)

...WIND IMPACTS...
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF ALABAMA IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE...WITH
PEAK WINDS OF 130 TO 140 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WHEN IVAN MAKES
LANDFALL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN EXTREME DAMAGE
TO STRUCTURES NEAR THE COAST AND EXTENSIVE DAMAGE FURTHER
INLAND...ESPECIALLY TO MOBILE HOMES.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...40 MPH OR MORE...HAVE ALREADY REACHED
THE COASTLINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND AND SHOULD INCREASE
TO HURRICANE FORCE THIS EVENING.  THE COASTAL COUNTIES CAN EXPECT AN
ESTIMATED 25 TO 30 HOURS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH AND
ABOUT 10 TO 15 HOURS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.  THE WIND IMPACT WILL
ALSO BE VERY HIGH FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.  INLAND HURRICANE WIND
WARNINGS ARE ALSO NOW IN EFFECT AS COUNTIES VERY NEAR THE TRACK CAN
EXPERIENCE 5 TO 10 HOURS OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS AND
COUNTIES FURTHER AWAY UP TO 5 HOURS.

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I'm praying for you people.  Please take extreme caution - this one's the real deal.

Power has flickered a few times here in Pensacola, but the lights are still on. The winds became a consistent speed around 5pm. Me and the wife decided it was time to cook, since it may be the last time we use a full size stove for awhile.

Panama city has had 2 deaths related to tornados and have people trapped in homes. That's 2 hours east of P'cola.

It's picking up in Mobile, winds are getting in the upper 40s. All is quite in the apartment complex . I'll post updates as long as I can. Only had one power flicker so far.

...WIND IMPACTS....
EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS HAVE
SPREAD INTO COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. AT AN
ELEVATED NOAA AUTOMATED WIND STATION AT BURAS...REPORTED A 77
MPH WIND GUST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  WINDS GUSTS OF 55 TO 60 MPH
HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE LAST HOUR AT THE EAST END OF GRAND ISLE.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WINDS IN EXCESS 74 MPH...WILL OVERSPREAD
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE
WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
FROM THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA THROUGH PLAQUEMINES PARISH...
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSIDERABLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS
CAN BE ALSO EXPECTED IN HIGH RISE BUILDINGS AND ELEVATED BRIDGES AND
ROADWAYS.

EXTREME WIND GUSTS OF 110 TO 135 MPH...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY
NEAR WHERE HURRICANE IVAN MAKES LANDFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT IN
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. EXTENSIVE WIND DAMAGE
TO STRUCTURES NEAR THE COAST IS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF THIS
STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY TO MOBILE HOMES.

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Damn, I feel for you guys. I'm just getting back together after Frances. Twenty hours of hurricane winds, two days w/o water and nine days w/o power. Will need a new roof on our house, our yard is destroyed, and some of our best friends home is on the bottom of the lagoon (live aboards).

There are still areas here w/o power, and not expected to have service before the 19th. This was a good test for our personal readyness for a disaster. There will be changes made.

A couple of tips, too late for now but...

Water You can't store too much. We could flush the toilets with the water we flooded the kayaks and canoe with to avoid them blowing away, but we ended up with a couple of extra people at the house during the storm, so our drinking water supply ran down faster than expected. Some people do not have the survival mentality, and just expect things to return to normal within a day. I saw a lot of waste during the first days after the storm.

Generator Two ways to look at these. Big or small. Small: When power is lost area wide, fuel becomes real scarce. A 3kw generator will keep your regrigerator cold, run some lights, TV and fans. A tank (~3qts) will run somewhere around two hours. A tank or two in the morning, and another two in the evening will keep your refrigerator cold enough to save your food. Use a cooler and ice to keep people from opening and closing the door for drinks and the like. We had a lot of neighbors run their big generator 24 hours for the first day or so, then have trouble finding enough fuel to keep it running much after that. If you have a way to store fuel safely, have at it.

If you have a generator, resist the temptation to "take in" friends/family food. The food (frozen) will usually be starting to thaw, and put extra heat load into the freezer that you are working to keep cold. Trust me on this...

LED flashlights. Can't have enough of them, same goes for matches (even some waterproof ones). I have several Surefire lights, but nothing beats LEDs for not eating batteries. I bought half a dozen from Cheaper Than Dirt, for five bucks each, plenty to go around during the storm.

I use a Coleman gas stove. I know the propane ones are popular, but you ever try to siphon propane? My logic, can find gas anywhere, lawn mower, car, neighbors car.

MREs, GET SOME. Cooking becomes a drag during a long term outage. Water, being hard to find, becomes a problem both cooking and clean up.

I could write a book. but hope this at least helps someone.

Quoted: Power has flickered a few times here in Pensacola, but the lights are still on. The winds became a consistent speed around 5pm. Me and the wife decided it was time to cook, since it may be the last time we use a full size stove for awhile. Panama city has had 2 deaths related to tornados and have people trapped in homes. That's 2 hours east of P'cola.

Looks like it's shifting to the North - Northeast!!

It looks like you're going to get the full eye if it continues in Pensacola! Remember not to come out of your shelter during the eye.  Winds can go from 0 to 135 mph in less than 30 seconds.  

A Category 4 hurricane will have winds between 131 and 155 mph and, on the average, will be expected to cause 100 times the damage of the Category 1 storm.

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Actually New Orleans is just as they described it. They are constantly pumping water out everyday. That could get ugly.

I am in Biloxi right now and the winds are picking up. I am about 1/8th a mile from the water line (Gulf).


Alan Out!

I feel for you guys in the way of that monster. Hang in there, and keep us posted as to how you all are doing.

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: I would like to see the effects of 8 or greater earthquake on CA , They say thousands of people will die and CA will slide into the ocean. Don't do that brother. You're better than that. I can't believe these guys haven't come back groveling with apologies for mistyping this shit! Don't tell me yet another bad hair day for the great know all Pangea!  Maybe it's time to add a little more spit to your comb This is a quote from New Orleans.  When Ivan hits, and it's a cat4 or 5, they predict the the salad bowl shape to collect 20' of water and drown 50,000 residents.  I don't believe it, anyone else have an issue with this description?

You think that you would like to see 50,000 people drown? Does that sound like a bad hair day to you?

Edited to say that I wasn't quoting passgass. I was quoting chaingun with his/her wanton bloodlust for the killing of 50,000 people.