... Does anyone have a SWAG on how many AR15 lowers / complete rifles there are in the USA?

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - ... Does anyone have a SWAG on how many AR15 lowers / complete rifles there are in the USA?

Posted: 9/15/2004 11:52:53 AM EDT

... SWAG = Semi Wild Ass Guess

... Even a rough educated "guesstimate" would suffice.

... Another acceptable answer would be how many were manufactured (with serial numbers) since 09/13/94 (AWB was enacted)

Posted: 9/15/2004 11:54:09 AM EDT

[#1]

Bushmaster alone produced almost 40,000 in the year 2000 alone. There were 94,878 produced in 2000 total. So with sales just increasing every year, maybe a coupla million.

Posted: 9/15/2004 2:23:11 PM EDT

[#2]

Quoted:
Bushmaster alone produced almost 40,000 in the year 2000 alone. There were 94,878 produced in 2000 total. So with sales just increasing every year, maybe a coupla million.

... Well, I guess one could expound a number based on an estimate what percentage of the market share was owned by Bushmaster and the 94,878 total for 2000

… I’ll see if I can’t come up with some algorithm to produce a reasonably defendable guess.

Posted: 9/15/2004 2:23:46 PM EDT

[#3]

I think I heard 40 million once....

Posted: 9/15/2004 4:53:17 PM EDT

[#4]

I think I heard 40 million once....

That's off by an order of magnitude, at least. The first ARs came out in the early 60s, so that would be about 40 years of production. So you'd have to have an average of a million a year. The figures above indicate around 100,000 a year, and if I have to guess, 2000 is probably on the high end of yearly production. Assuming 100,000 a year, thats still only 4 million.

Also, there was a study by the DOJ back in '94 that estimated that there were ~192 million guns in the US. Even adding another 30 or 40 million guns in the decade since then would mean that to get to 40 million guns, ~15% of all guns in the US would have to be an AR. ARs aren't that popular.

Posted: 9/15/2004 4:59:24 PM EDT

[#5]

This is a question for....

SUPER TROY

Posted: 9/15/2004 6:24:44 PM EDT

[#6]

Yes, AR-15's were sold in the 60's, but were very rare in stores.

I would say, in the years since '94, the number of AR-15 type rifles in US civilian hands (yes, even counting neutered rifles), has probably tripled, maybe quadrupled. This is a SWAG.

Many people who said, "One of these days I might like to get an AR-15" saw what was happening and bought as soon as they could before they were totally banned. They liked the first one so much, they bought another, and another. They introduced their friends to these rifles, and they bought.

AR-15's were no longer on the back burner of "nice to have one of these days", but instead, "I MUST have one NOW!"

There are more makes and models, accessories, and such than ever before. There must be 25 grips alone on the market. Then rails, handguards, etc. Amazing!

We have had a wake up call. Those who still ignore it, well, what can you say?

Posted: 9/15/2004 6:27:48 PM EDT

[#7]

Quoted:

I would say, in the years since '94, the number of AR-15 type rifles in US civilian hands (yes, even counting neutered rifles), has probably tripled, maybe quadrupled. This is a SWAG.

Many people who said, "One of these days I might like to get an AR-15" saw what was happening and bought as soon as they could before they were totally banned. They liked the first one so much, they bought another, and another. They introduced their friends to these rifles, and they bought.

I can testify to that. When the ban first enacted, I thought "who the hell needs a rifle like that?"

I now have an ak style rifle, and I just bought #3 Ar rifle. My wife is ready to kill me.

There is two gun shows two weeks in a row here this weekend and next, who knows what I might bring back then!

Posted: 9/15/2004 6:27:54 PM EDT

[#8]

And now the $64,000 question: why aren't the owners of all those guns standing up for their rights

Posted: 9/15/2004 6:31:39 PM EDT

[#9]

Quoted:
... SWAG = Semi Wild Ass Guess

... Even a rough educated "guesstimate" would suffice.

... Another acceptable answer would be how many were manufactured (with serial numbers) since 09/13/94 (AWB was enacted)

I have 12 of them..so lets add ours up!

Posted: 9/15/2004 6:31:42 PM EDT

[#10]

I'm guessing 2.5 to 3 million, including all the stripped lowers sitting in safes...

Posted: 9/15/2004 10:05:54 PM EDT

[#11]

+1 for between 2 and 3 million.

Posted: 9/15/2004 10:11:02 PM EDT

[#12]

How many does Michelle have

and when does she become a team member?

Posted: 9/15/2004 11:47:37 PM EDT

[#13]

Not counting military production, reviewing Colt production numbers before the ban and extrapolating for the last 4 years (no stats available), I'd peg the number of rifles (and/or lowers) produced for US sales at around 1.4-1.6 Million. Keep in mind that Colt was the ONLY AR manufacturer until the mid-80s when their patent expired, and they had made less than 140,000 civilian ARs between 1963 and 1986. The approx 100,000/year figure is what I used for the last few years, as AR sales have been high, though not quite as high as their peak in 1999, due to the Y2K scare.

I don't have complete figures for the early 90s, but there's no way the figure exceeds 2 million total. Let's call it an even 1.5 Mil.

-Troy

P.S., Happy now, Navy boy?

Posted: 9/15/2004 11:54:52 PM EDT

[#14]

There were probably 150k made last year. Bushmaster alone made 75k last I heard.

Posted: 9/15/2004 11:55:40 PM EDT

[#15]

Quoted:
I think I heard 40 million once....

Thats AKs in the entire world.

Posted: 9/16/2004 12:01:35 AM EDT

[#16]

Quoted:
... SWAG = Semi Wild Ass Guess

Sheesh, don't you know that SWAG=Scientific Wild Ass Guess.

Posted: 9/16/2004 12:07:52 AM EDT

[#17]

Quoted:
Quoted:
... SWAG = Semi Wild Ass Guess

... Even a rough educated "guesstimate" would suffice.

... Another acceptable answer would be how many were manufactured (with serial numbers) since 09/13/94 (AWB was enacted)

I have 12 of them..so lets add ours up!

Add 10 to that number for mine! I hope to get another "military style rack" to start filling up before the years end.

Hessian-1

out!

Posted: 9/16/2004 12:10:54 AM EDT

[#18]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
... SWAG = Semi Wild Ass Guess

... Even a rough educated "guesstimate" would suffice.

... Another acceptable answer would be how many were manufactured (with serial numbers) since 09/13/94 (AWB was enacted)

I have 12 of them..so lets add ours up!

Add 10 to that number for mine! I hope to get another "military style rack" to start filling up before the years end.

Hessian-1out!

So far, we are talking a minimum of 40 on this thread alone.

Posted: 9/16/2004 12:40:54 AM EDT

[#19]

put me down for 3 of the few million out there, with 2 more to come when I move out of this commie state

Posted: 9/16/2004 12:45:25 AM EDT

[#20]

I have 6 all colt, buying a bushy and an armalite soon.

Posted: 9/16/2004 12:52:03 AM EDT

[#21]

Quoted:
So far, we are talking a minimum of 40 on this thread alone.

60 now. Till Paul posts, that will bump it by 20. Then theres.....

Posted: 9/16/2004 12:58:49 AM EDT

[#22]

Here's my post, bump it up by 10 or 12...(I keep losing count).

Posted: 9/16/2004 1:05:14 AM EDT

[#23]

I recently added six stripped BM receives to the six complete BMs I had. 12 from me. I will see how Colt handles their sales to us "civilians" before I buy anything from them. Probable buy four stripped LEO, AR15 marked receivers. Not sure.

Posted: 9/16/2004 1:13:07 AM EDT

[#24]

We will actually never know exactly how many rifles were produced because among the gun manufacturers the actual production numbers for the commercial market are highly guarded company secret. When ATF breaks out production figures they only mention the aggragate production of all companies.

Posted: 9/16/2004 1:30:02 AM EDT

[#25]

I used to have 5 AR's, but I lost one duck hunting, 2 fishing offshore, 1 while whitewater rafting, and yet my last while parasailing.

I have some really bad luck, but the nice thing is now that the ban is over I will be able to buy some new ones to replace the ones that are gone.

Posted: 9/16/2004 1:36:06 AM EDT

[#26]

Quoted:
I used to have 5 AR's, but I lost one duck hunting, 2 fishing offshore, 1 while whitewater rafting, and yet my last while parasailing.

I have some really bad luck, but the nice thing is now that the ban is over I will be able to buy some new ones to replace the ones that are gone.

I know you are joking there....

However, when I finally get around to FULLY cleaning out the brassmobile, there is a Sig P245 and a spare mag in there somewhere (I hope).

Posted: 9/16/2004 3:53:42 AM EDT

[#27]

I'll bet that 139,000 of them have been sold as NIB blue label at least once......

Quoted:
Keep in mind that Colt was the ONLY AR manufacturer until the mid-80s when their patent expired, and they had made less than 140,000 civilian ARs between 1963 and 1986.

Posted: 9/16/2004 4:19:29 AM EDT

[#28]

Quoted:
And now the $64,000 question: why aren't the owners of all those guns standing up for their rights

It appears that they have.

Posted: 9/16/2004 7:24:46 AM EDT

[#29]

Quoted:
Not counting military production, reviewing Colt production numbers before the ban and extrapolating for the last 4 years (no stats available), I'd peg the number of rifles (and/or lowers) produced for US sales at around 1.4-1.6 Million. Keep in mind that Colt was the ONLY AR manufacturer until the mid-80s when their patent expired, and they had made less than 140,000 civilian ARs between 1963 and 1986. The approx 100,000/year figure is what I used for the last few years, as AR sales have been high, though not quite as high as their peak in 1999, due to the Y2K scare.

I don't have complete figures for the early 90s, but there's no way the figure exceeds 2 million total. Let's call it an even 1.5 Mil.

-Troy

P.S., Happy now, Navy boy?

I'm always happy when you start talking numbers.

BTW, haven't you heard? Paul and I, recently retired from the Navy!

I guess that you can just call me boy now.

Posted: 9/16/2004 7:51:40 AM EDT

[#30]

Not enough.

Posted: 9/16/2004 8:12:04 AM EDT

[#31]

The AR, the only gun where 10,000 people own 500,000 guns. And at least 1/2 of those have been lost at sea.

Posted: 9/16/2004 8:59:12 AM EDT

[#32]

Parasailing?

Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!

Posted: 9/16/2004 9:55:17 AM EDT

[#33]

We could all meet up together in Irag and give the terrorist all they can handle.

Posted: 9/16/2004 9:59:30 AM EDT

[#34]

Quoted:
I used to have 5 AR's, but I lost one duck hunting, 2 fishing offshore, 1 while whitewater rafting, and yet my last while parasailing.

I have some really bad luck, but the nice thing is now that the ban is over I will be able to buy some new ones to replace the ones that are gone.

Wow, you do have bad luck!

Posted: 9/16/2004 10:44:11 AM EDT

[#35]

66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:J37SRwyvM4kJ:www.vpc.org/graphics/prod2002.pdf+atf+production+bushmaster&hl=en&lr=lang_en

Seriously, you could just call the VPC and they would likely have the information at their fingertips if you said you were writing a hit-piece.

Looks like Bushmaster made about 175K up to the year 2000. Colt was averaging about 30K per year (maybe a little more) till 2000. DPMS made 18K from '95-2000 and Armalite averaged about 5K per year from '95-2000. I'm sure they exceeded these number from 2000 on but it's a starting point.

Troy's guess seems in the ballpark. I'd guess we had about 500,000 by 2000.