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I make a fuck ton of H2 a day.

Of course, it's made with dinosaur corpses and steam.

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I saw a Big rig complete with trailer waiting for fuel at the Kroger gas station earlier too. I’ve never seen that before.

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Not to mention the ever encroaching corporate-ness and micro-management GOTCH-YA fuck-fuck games that make the older more experienced operators just say “Enough of this bullshit!” and pull the handles.

Kinda reminds me  of the GD threads on why military pilots are or were leaving in droves.

EDIT:  couple the above with the continued kicking of the can maintenance wise.  “umm…yeah, our pipe X-rays showed that section was getting thin, but we didn’t think it would catastrophically fail so soon!”

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https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/298946/image_jpg-2378823.JPG

And so it begins, SEVA.

Thanks Biden voters and never_trumps. You boy is handling this poorly. But at least there are no mean tweets.

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If diesel keeps going up I'll break even hiring a company to come out.  Save wear and tear on my tractor (1025).

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Hydrogen vehicles are range competitive with diesel. Once they figure out the kinks (and its much better now then it was even 5 years ago) the future is BEV for personal vehicles and hydrogen for heavy duty trucks.

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I would love to know your experience in this field.

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He has none.

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I'm aware. His talking points generally come straight from the CCP.

The world is ‘crying out for diesel.’ Product tankers could win big
Product tanker owners Ardmore, INSW, Scorpio see scramble for diesel supplies
Photo of Greg Miller Greg Miller Friday, May 6, 2022
6 minutes read
product tankers shipping diesel
(Photo: Scorpio Tankers)

Retail gasoline prices in the U.S. are up 45% year on year. Diesel used by American truckers is up 75% and just hit an all-time high. But this is not just an American problem. Pain at the pump is global. And so-called product tankers — ships designed to transport cargoes such as diesel, gasoline and jet fuel — are in prime position to profit.

Fuel flows globally to where it earns the highest return. Case in point: As U.S. diesel prices have skyrocketed, American exports of diesel have surged, because demand in other countries is higher.

U.S distillate fuel exports hit 1.74 million barrels per day (b/d) in early April, nearing record levels, according to preliminary data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Total U.S. exports of all refined products in April rose 28% year on year.
‘Outright panic buying of diesel’

“There has been outright panic-buying of diesel,” said Anthony Gurnee, CEO of product-tanker owner Ardmore Shipping (NYSE: ASC), during a conference call on Wednesday.

Ardmore specializes in MR tankers, a vessel class with capacity ranging from 25,000-54,999 deadweight tons (DWT). Clarksons Platou Securities said that modern-built MRs were earning $49,800 per day in the spot market as of Friday. That’s more than quadruple the average rate for full-year 2021. Clarksons puts the breakeven rate for such vessels at $18,000 per day.

“The world is really crying out for diesel and that’s causing refinery margins to spike,” said Lois Zabrocky, CEO of International Seaways (NYSE: INSW), during a conference call on Wednesday.

INSW’s product tanker fleet primarily consists of MRs and LR1s (55,000-79,999 DWT). Modern LR1s are earning $50,400 per day in the spot market, according to Clarksons, which puts the breakeven rate for such ships at $19,000 per day. Current LR1 rates are almost quadruple their full-year 2021 average.

Larger LR2s (80,000-119,00 DWT) that handle high-volume, long-haul runs are showing even steeper gains. Rates for modern LR2s jumped 21% on Friday to $58,600 per day, said Clarksons.
War exacerbates diesel shortages

The worldwide diesel market is “extremely tight” and the Russia-Ukraine war “has exacerbated the global diesel shortage,” said James Doyle, head of corporate development at Scorpio Tankers (NYSE: STNG), during a conference call on April 28.
Chart: FreightWaves SONAR (To learn more about FreightWaves SONAR, click here.)

Before the invasion, he said, Russia exported about 1 million b/d of diesel to Europe. That volume has plummeted. “But the diesel shortage in Europe is not new,” he added. “And the shortage extends beyond Europe to Latin America and Africa, which have similar diesel deficits.

“For our MRs, the highest rate increases were for our vessels going from the U.S. Gulf to Latin America, which has less to do with Russia and Ukraine and more to do with increasing demand,” Doyle pointed out.

“We expect the market to tighten further with increased competition for distillate molecules as jet fuel demand returns. This is also having an impact on gasoline. With refineries running in max distillate mode, we are not building significant gasoline inventories ahead of peak driving season. As demand grows and inventories remain low, product tankers will need to be the conduit for filling the global supply-demand imbalance.”

Commodity specialist Argus made the same point on gasoline. “The lack of spare capacity is causing alarm heading into the peak summer driving season,” Argus warned on Thursday. “The situation is compounded by even higher middle-distillate margins, which have boosted supply of diesel over gasoline.”
Inventories drawn through COVID era

Usually, rates for tankers that carry crude oil and rates for tankers that carry petroleum products trend roughly in tandem. And if one outperforms the other, it’s usually crude. This year, product tankers are dramatically outperforming crude tankers; larger crude tankers are still below breakeven.

Both crude and product tankers saw rates collapse during the COVID era. Oil production outstripped demand amid lockdowns. The world’s inventories filled with cheap crude and products bought at the trough.

Ever since, those inventories have been drawn down instead of using tankers to import new supply (because new supply is much more expensive than the petroleum still in storage bought at the trough).

Due to this practice, stockpiles were already historically low months before Russia invaded Ukraine. In November 2021, Alphatanker published a report called “Welcome to the great diesel squeeze,” which warned: “It’s now apparent that global gasoil and diesel markets are tightening at an alarming pace with supply shortfalls now hitting key consumer markets worldwide.”

Then Russia invaded Ukraine. “This event immediately laid bare … the risks of severely depleted inventories,” said Evercore ISI analyst Jon Chappell.
Product tankers vs. crude tankers

Asked why this has boosted product tanker rates so much more than crude tanker rates — given that crude inventories are also historically low — Chappell responded, “Usually the two groups are highly correlated, and usually crude leads and outperforms by measure of magnitude. But we are far from normal times.
Evercore ISI’s Jon Chappell (Photo: Marine Money)

“Crude tankers are doing really well in regions directly impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — the Black Sea, Baltic and the Med — owing to the higher insurance costs and risks of entering those markets. But overall, the crude markets have been balancing new longer trade routes with the inability of OPEC to meet quotas, Russia [being] offline, and China lockdowns. The market is better than it probably should be based on those latter factors, but the low inventories and longer ton-miles [voyage distances] are offsetting some of the macro headwinds.

“Product tankers are benefiting from localized diesel shortages, high refinery margins … and massive trading arbs [arbitrages] that allow traders to pay much higher freight costs and still make a ton on the arb. Inventories are far too low globally and prices will likely remain elevated, forcing more trading in unusual trade lanes, tightening capacity and lifting that market well before and well above crude.

“Eventually crude tankers will catch up, I think, if supply of crude can meet higher refinery demand. But right now, it’s a unique product story. And talking with my oil analyst, it’s hard to see how these diesel shortages ease or the strong tanker markets end,” said Chappell.
Earnings recap

Among the universe of listed shipowners, Clarksons Platou Securities said that “product tankers are sailing up as the winning sector year to date.”

Rates are surging on “exploding refining margins,” said Clarksons. It maintained that “the products sector looks primed to gain further.”

Through Thursday’s close, the stocks of Scorpio Tankers and Ardmore Shipping were up 106% and 114% year to date, respectively. Shares of International Seaways — which owns both crude and product tankers — were up 50% year to date.
product tanker stock prices
Chart: Koyfin

Listed product tanker owners have just reported more losses for the first quarter. The rate upswing won’t be fully felt until the current quarter.

Ardmore Shipping reported a net loss of $7 million for Q1 2022 versus a net loss of $8.5 million in Q1 2021. The adjusted loss of 4 cents per share beat consensus expectations for a loss of 8 cents.

Ardmore has 50% of its Q2 2022 available MR spot days booked at $25,500 per day. That compares to rates of $16,513 per day in Q1 2022.

International Seaways reported a net loss of $13 million for Q1 2022 compared to a net loss of $13.4 million in the same period last year. The adjusted loss of 29 cents per share was slightly better than Wall Street expectations for a loss of 30 cents.

The company has 41% of its available Q2 2022 MR spot days booked at an average of $24,500 per day. That compares to $14,030 per day in the first quarter.

Scorpio Tankers reported a net loss of $84.4 million for Q1 2022 compared to a net loss of $62.4 million in Q1 2021. The adjusted loss per share of 27 cents came in much better than the consensus forecast for a loss of 58 cents.

Scorpio has 42% of its available Q2 2022 spot MR days booked at $30,000 per day. Its MR fleet earned an average of $16,305 per day in the first quarter.
product tanker KPIs

Click for more articles by Greg Miller
Related articles:

   Benchmark diesel price hits all-time record; market signaling it isn’t done
   Why every American should care that diesel prices are surging across the country
   Why diesel prices are soaring beyond crude and gasoline, and are likely to continue that way
   How low can tankers go? Analysts slash rate forecasts (again)
   Why Russia-Ukraine war has not ignited crude tanker rates (yet)
   Shipping on Wall Street: Is it better to be a pure play or jack-of-all-trades?
   ‘Gobbling up’ cargo: How crude tankers cannibalized product tankers

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Why use diesel to heat your home?  It’s not a thing down here so I’m just curious.

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I think all the talk about 3rd world poor nations having famines and 1 worlders having  to pay a lot more for food is BULLSHIT to lull us into not preparing.

I think they are going to go full Holodomor on us.

Go ahead America, buy all the guns and ammo you want. You can't fight tyranny on an empty stomach.

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BBQ Democrat.... it's what's for dinner!!!

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FIFY

It may work for the people living on small lots in the suburbs, with an attached garage.  Apartment dwellers?  Nope.  Installing the charging system is not likely to be a cheap, simple process, for most people.

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Any fleet managers that could guesstimate what the effect of DPF system deletes would be on OTR trucking costs?
- 20% reduction in fuel consumption
- reduction in ongoing maintenance and downtime.- reduction - in urea use (S.Korea had to air freight that shit in to keep trucks on the road)

Cost of the delete would be lessened if engine mfgs issued firmware updates and delete kits

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I like it. Less than 7 days food supply in grocery warehouses and retail stores. And now the trucks can not deliver without fuel. It’s going to be righteous.

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The world isn't buying Russian oil for a long time

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Any fleet managers that could guesstimate what the effect of DPF system deletes would be on OTR trucking costs?
- 20% reduction in fuel consumption
- reduction in ongoing maintenance and downtime.- reduction - in urea use (S.Korea had to air freight that shit in to keep trucks on the road)

Cost of the delete would be lessened if engine mfgs issued firmware updates and delete kits

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Is that a problem in May?

I know it's going to hit 40s here tonight, but low-to-mid 80s during the day.

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Some on here need to up their insulation.  I'm sleeping with the window open and it's still getting below freezing at night.  It's been weeks since I've had the heat on.

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Freightwaves Founder/CEO says to buckle up.

Major truckstop chains Loves and Pilot warning about imminent diesel shortages in the eastern half of the US

— Craig Fuller \uD83D\uDEE9\uD83D\uDE9B\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@FreightAlley) May 11, 2022

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Gonna be a lot of reeeeeeeing! Come October/November up here if heating oil remains high and is in short supply

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Any fleet managers that could guesstimate what the effect of DPF system deletes would be on OTR trucking costs?
- 20% reduction in fuel consumption
- reduction in ongoing maintenance and downtime.- reduction - in urea use (S.Korea had to air freight that shit in to keep trucks on the road)

Cost of the delete would be lessened if engine mfgs issued firmware updates and delete kits

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Meh. I adjust attitudes for a living.

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Any fleet managers that could guesstimate what the effect of DPF system deletes would be on OTR trucking costs?
- 20% reduction in fuel consumption
- reduction in ongoing maintenance and downtime.- reduction - in urea use (S.Korea had to air freight that shit in to keep trucks on the road)

Cost of the delete would be lessened if engine mfgs issued firmware updates and delete kits

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How will this affect the midwest? Lets say Missouri, Illinois and KY. Will they run out or just be sky high?

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Placed an order at the local fuel supply store for 2ct 55 gallon drums of diesel. Cost 5.10 gal plus $75 for the drum. Might do two more. That would be nearly 4 months of supply for me if I drove the TDI only.

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Placed an order at the local fuel supply store for 2ct 55 gallon drums of diesel. Cost 5.10 gal plus $75 for the drum. Might do two more. That would be nearly 4 months of supply for me if I drove the TDI only.