If the US had pulled out of SA, abandoned SA and Israel and any involvement in the middle east or Muslim world, then I think OBL would have won.
In a real roundabout way of thinking, Saddam caused 9/11 because his invasion prompted US stationing of troops in SA, which pissed off OBL, who swore to kick us out.
But while the US has exited SA which was OBL's ostenible goal, we're now in Iraq in greater numbers, exercising greater influence in the Muslim world and trying to establish Western systems of politics and economics that fanatics like OBL find idolatrous, probably for the foreseeable future. Not to mention, we helped out millions of Sh'ia muslims whom fanatic Saudi Sunnis like OBL hate as much as Americans and Jews. [url]http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20040101faessay83105/michael-scott-doran/the-saudi-paradox.html[/url]
You can't say OBL is winning. Especially since most likely, he's dead as a doornail.