User Panel
Posted: 1/10/2003 9:34:31 AM EDT
Viewing the posts on "Terrorism" and fuel consumption made me seek this information out. It would be quite useful in flattenig that argument.
This is not from a government source, but the percentages do agree with what I thought they would be...: Where do the raw materials for your gasoline, heating oil, diesel fuel, and all of our plastic products come from? Here is a breakdown based on government data for the year 2000: Supplied Domestically 38.2 % Canada 9.2 % Saudi Arabia 8.0 % Venezuela 7.8 % Mexico 7.0 % Nigeria 4.5 % Iraq* 3.7 % United Kingdom 2.9 % Norway 2.4 % Colombia 2.7 % Angola 2.0 % All Other Countries 11.6 % View Quote |
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Not surprising: Liberals don't have their facts straight once again.
BTW, what is the source? |
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Quoted: If ANWR were developed what % would it supply? View Quote Also include other offshore oil reserves that the liberals don't want us to use in that figure as well. |
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Where did you get this again?
I wonder why they throw in plastics, couldn't that mess with the numbers? |
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Not really.
Even if we don't get all our gas from the middle east, the majority of the rest of the world does. We still drive up demand and prices and ensure a steady stream of revenue for the terrorists. Or, to take another route. You say changing cars won't make a difference. If you count Venezuala (which has admitted it has given millions to Al Queda directly), 30% of our oil comes from terrorist finance supporters. If we reduce our oil consumption by 15%, we have cut the money we send to terrorists by half. Remove venezuala from the equation. Approx 20-25% of our oil comes from the middle east (the extra 11% is primarily UAE, which technically are several small emarites, not an individual country.) Reduce our total oil consumption by 10%, you still cut terrorist funding in half. Ditch and dodge all you want. The more oil we consume, the more money Al Queda has to train its pilots. Yes, you by yourself won't make a difference. Fuck it, let someone else fix the problem. Good attitude. |
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ANWR p95 is 5 billion barrels. p50 is probably 10-15 billion barrels. Remember, daily production from ANWR would be about 2.5 million barrels a day for about 5 years, and then a decline. Total production would last about 25 years. It would take about 5 years to bring ANWR on line.
Daily US consumption is 22-23 million barrels a day. We are developing the vast majority of our large off-shore oil fields. It isn't cheap. Example, approximately 600million barrel field (called Atlantis) is in 7000 ft in Gulf of Mexico. It will cost about 2 billion dollars to bring that on line. That is not including the cost of the sub-sea pipeline to deliver the oil. That is another 300-500 million dollars. Atlantis will have a daily production rate of 100-200,000 barrels of oil per day at peak (called plateau). plateau will last two-four years. The field will be on-line for about 25 years. There is no magic bullet out there. You can think that all you want. God is His perverse sense of humor gave the Arabs incredible reservoirs. Just stick a pipe in the ground and let it flow. their fields are in the 100's of billions of barrels. Currently they produce at about 50% of already developed capacity. The rest of the non-opec world produces at 100% capacity. The point of the exercise is that all increases and decreases in oil consumption are covered by the saudis. If you use one less gallon of gas a day, that money is taken directly away from the Saudis. you buy one more gallon of gas, that money goes directly to the saudis. The whole world produces whatever it can, the saudis produce whats left. Even small changes help. Yes, I work in the oil-gas industry. I hate fucking liberals but this is the one place they have their shit straight. |
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So if we just took over Iraq and pumped all the oil out of the ground, what would that do?
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Quoted: ANWR p95 is 5 billion barrels. p50 is probably 10-15 billion barrels. Remember, daily production from ANWR would be about 2.5 million barrels a day for about 5 years, and then a decline. Total production would last about 25 years. It would take about 5 years to bring ANWR on line. Daily US consumption is 22-23 million barrels a day. We are developing the vast majority of our large off-shore oil fields. It isn't cheap. Example, approximately 600million barrel field (called Atlantis) is in 7000 ft in Gulf of Mexico. It will cost about 2 billion dollars to bring that on line. That is not including the cost of the sub-sea pipeline to deliver the oil. That is another 300-500 million dollars. Atlantis will have a daily production rate of 100-200,000 barrels of oil per day at peak (called plateau). plateau will last two-four years. The field will be on-line for about 25 years. There is no magic bullet out there. You can think that all you want. God is His perverse sense of humor gave the Arabs incredible reservoirs. Just stick a pipe in the ground and let it flow. their fields are in the 100's of billions of barrels. Currently they produce at about 50% of already developed capacity. The rest of the non-opec world produces at 100% capacity. The point of the exercise is that all increases and decreases in oil consumption are covered by the saudis. If you use one less gallon of gas a day, that money is taken directly away from the Saudis. you buy one more gallon of gas, that money goes directly to the saudis. The whole world produces whatever it can, the saudis produce whats left. Even small changes help. Yes, I work in the oil-gas industry. I hate fucking liberals but this is the one place they have their shit straight. View Quote This info is quite disheartining. |
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No one really knows how much oil is in ANWR. But my friend's next door neighbor was one of the chief geologists who first surveyed the oil deposits in Prudhoe Bay back in the 60's. One of their techniques were to fly low in small planes and throw rolls of TP onto the tundra. The areas where the TP turned black from surface crude oil got the highest priority to survey in better detail. This geologist said that the ANWR was at least as rich as Prudhoe, judging by this method.
At any rate, the liberals block any attempt to do any exploration in ANWR while pooh-poohing the significance of any oil that ANWR could produce. They spew horseshit like "It would only produce 6 months of oil anyway" or "We need to put priorities on finding alternative energy solutions to fossil fuels". Look, if ANWR isn't developed, then much of the infrastructure that is already in place up on the Slope to extract and transport oil is going to fall into decay from disuse once the non-ANWR fields dry up. Prudhoe Bay's on the downslope right now. It would not be hard to exploit ANWR's deposits, but we have to get cracking now while the costs of doing so are relatively low, and can take up the slack from a declining Prudhoe Bay. I just find it hard to understand why anyone could be opposed to opening ANWR. It's not like there's a shortage of barren, "pristine" tundra on the polar coastlines of the world. But it is unusual to have such a potentially massive petroleum deposit right next to a fully functional extraction infrastructure, right on our territory. It's like saying "Let's not pick up this $500 lying in the backyard, because it'll only cover 6 months of my fuel expenses anyway." |
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Quoted: Not surprising: Liberals don't have their facts straight once again. BTW, what is the source? View Quote Touche. |
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OK, further explanations.
p95 means that there is a 95% chance (p stands for probability) that the oil reserves will deliver that much oil. That is the standard means of calculating NPV of a project. p50 is the best guess. I agree that ANWR needs to be developed (if for no other reason than I want to work the North Slope). I don't give a fuck about global warming or save the seals. The reality is our gasoline demand dictates the world market. Stand back folks, the lesson is about to begin. The Russians, the US, and Saudi Arabia all produce about 10 mmblbd (mmblb/d = million barrels of oil per day. If we are going to learn, lets use the correct terminology) Russia and the US are at 100% capacity. We pump every barrel we can. All non-Opec countries are in the same boat. The saudis produce at about 50% capacity. Most OPEC nations (the arabs, Norway, Nigeria, and Venezuala) are at about 75-80% capacity. Now, transportation uses (diesel, kerosene (aka jet fuel) and gas) use up 65% of the us oil. But, the other 35% is lower ends and upper ends that cannot be converted economically into gas. So for every 1 gallon of gas not used, that will bring in one less gallon of oil. The residuals (called resids) are waste streams that are more expensive to dispose of than to sell. But they are a natural result of refining. To reiterate. 65% of our oil is used for transportation, but it drives 100% of demand. Next of that 65%, about 68% is used for gasoline, 18% for diesel, and about 12% for Kerosene (jet fuel). These are all market driven. To carry that further, for every 10% reduction in gasoline demand, you reduce our total oil demand by 6.8%. But remember, you don't reduce the amount of oil produced or exported by the non-opec oil countries. That 6.8% only comes out of Opec. And we choose who we import from. Carry that even further. We import 7.8% of our oil from Saudi Arabia. If we reduce our gasoline demand 15%, we can stop all imports from Saudi Arabia to the united states. Also, because of the margins, a 10% in worldwide oil demand would cause a 40% drop in total prices (the economics involved in that is a book onto itself). The greatest available variable for gasoline demand is large engine vehicles. Farmers and workers need those F-250s. SUVs are a matter of choice. Only a 15% reduction is total gasoline demand and we can eliminate our sending money to Saudi Arabia. I work oil and gas and drive a honda civic. My wife has a Honda mini-van. The safety issue is there, but you must understand that al-queda and most international terrorism is funded by oil-money. Make your own choices, but don't think there isn't anything you can do. And, at the p50 ANWR estimates, that would supply our oil demand for 454 days. That is what the tree-huggers mean. But, it could conceivable supply our entire Saudi Arabian demand. The liberals are morons because they think SUVs will make a difference and ANWR won't. It all matters! |
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raven,
You bring up an interesting point. If there is crude oil on the surface of the ANWR, it is our responsibility to ensure we "clean it up" and prevent any more from polluting the surface of suicha pristine land. We'll have to pump it all out...... |
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Those figures come from the American Petroleum Institute.
[url]http://api-ec.api.org/industry/index.cfm?bitmask=1D798D48-3258-11D5-9F1A0008C7094D05#[/url] I converted the PDF file of the latest (Jan-OCT 2002) figures to a JPEG: Of that we get 2.3% of petroleum products from Iraq... BFD. [img]http://bin.homestead.com/files/OctImp.jpg[/img] |
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2.3% (artificially low, since we have cut off their exports here, but regardless) is still 15.7 million dollars A DAY to Iraq.
BFD? Incidently, technology has progressed past the toilet paper on the ground. That is why prudoe bay produced way beyond anyone's expectations. |
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Quoted: 2.3% (artificially low, since we have cut off their exports here, but regardless) is still 15.7 million dollars A DAY to Iraq. BFD? Incidently, technology has progressed past the toilet paper on the ground. That is why prudoe bay produced way beyond anyone's expectations. View Quote Sylvan, Further education please...What grows or lives in a habitat that has oil on the ground? And as a % of total land in ANWR what amount of land would be used if we were developing it?Thanks ww |
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I think Sylvan just made the case that in addition to Iraq's we should take the Saudi oilfields for ourselves as well.
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Nothing.
There is no visible ground oil in ANWR to the best of my knowledge. Problem with the North Slope and ANWR is the poor porosity and interconnection of the reservoirs. You can't just tap one big spiggot (like saudi) and get what you want. Lots of little wells that dry up and have to moved a small distance. The total impact would be 3-5% of the total land area would require development. However, after abandonment the impact would be completely unnoticable. Drilling is a relativly high impact operations. Then you have the production facilites. All this stuff gets pulled off when the facility is abandoned. There is no viable reason to not drill ANWR. It is just a bunch of tree hugger nonsense. The alaska pipeline is only running 40% capacity right now and ANWR would fill that nicely. Ironically, the alaska pipeline has been a boon to alaskan wildlife. The oil flows at a much higher temperature than the surrounding areas. The path the alaskan pipeline takes has a constant source of groudwater and has created a warm area and its own ecosystem. Thousands of cariboo and moose that would have frozen to death in harsh winters lived by staying close to the pipeline. |
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Quoted: I think Sylvan just made the case that in addition to Iraq's we should take the Saudi oilfields for ourselves as well. View Quote God Damn right! We developed those reserves. Saudi Arabia would be a desert shithole if it wasn't for american technology and american engineers. And those goat humping fuckers repay by killing thousands of Americans. My solution is much simplier. We shut off the straights of hormuz with a blockade and don't let any oil through. The spot price of oil at the straight of hormuz is $.01 a barrel. take it or leave it. The arabs have nothing but oil. In 6 months they will be begging us to sell their oil. After they have complete turmoil and chaos, we move in, take the oil fields and let them have mecca and medina. Fuck them. They can't even fix the M-1s and F-15s we gave em. worthless greedy murdering shit heads. Ask me how I really feel. |
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Quoted: Quoted: I think Sylvan just made the case that in addition to Iraq's we should take the Saudi oilfields for ourselves as well. View Quote God Damn right! We developed those reserves. Saudi Arabia would be a desert shithole if it wasn't for american technology and american engineers. And those goat humping fuckers repay by killing thousands of Americans. My solution is much simplier. We shut off the straights of hormuz with a blockade and don't let any oil through. The spot price of oil at the straight of hormuz is $.01 a barrel. take it or leave it. The arabs have nothing but oil. In 6 months they will be begging us to sell their oil. After they have complete turmoil and chaos, we move in, take the oil fields and let them have mecca and medina. Fuck them. They can't even fix the M-1s and F-15s we gave em. worthless greedy murdering shit heads. Ask me how I really feel. View Quote I LIKE YOUR ATTITUDE! |
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Quoted: We shut off the straights of hormuz with a blockade and don't let any oil through. The spot price of oil at the straight of hormuz is $.01 a barrel. take it or leave it. The arabs have nothing but oil. In 6 months they will be begging us to sell their oil. After they have complete turmoil and chaos, we move in, take the oil fields and let them have mecca and medina. Fuck them. View Quote lol, we could definitely do that. Screw the UN and screw UNCLOS. We own the biggest baddest Navy in history and we should use it. The Saudis finance terrorists with oil money so it just makes sense for us to take control of their oil. |
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Thank you [b]Sylvan[/b] for your information. You seem VERY knowledgeable in the industry. But you're mistaken in your math:
Quoted: If you count Venezuala (which has admitted it has given millions to Al Queda directly), 30% of our oil comes from terrorist finance supporters. [red]If we reduce our oil consumption by 15%,[/red] we have cut the money we send to terrorists by half. View Quote Not really. That 15% reduction is spread among ALL sources of oil (like domestic, Canada, Mexico...) If we use 15% less oil, we're reducing the amount going to Saudi & Co. by 15% also. 15% of 30% is 4.5%. If we reduce our total oil use by 15%, terrorist-supporting oil suppliers will only see a 4.5% decrease because our reduction is spread among all sources. It will hurt OUR lifestyle more than it hurts THEM. (and of course THAT'S the real goal of the liberals) The only way we can cut off money going to the terrorist-supporting oil-producers is to cut-off BUYING [u]THEIR[/u] oil. And that is controlled at the Gov't/Industry level, not the consumer level. I can't control WHERE Texaco or ARCO gets its oil from, so it's pointless for me to inconvenience myself thinking that will "trickle down" to inconvenience the terrorist-supporting states and thus down to the terrorists. |
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Quoted: Thank you [b]Sylvan[/b] for your information. You seem VERY knowledgeable in the industry. But you're mistaken in your math: Quoted: If you count Venezuala (which has admitted it has given millions to Al Queda directly), 30% of our oil comes from terrorist finance supporters. [red]If we reduce our oil consumption by 15%,[/red] we have cut the money we send to terrorists by half. View Quote Not really. That 15% reduction is spread among ALL sources of oil (like domestic, Canada, Mexico...) If we use 15% less oil, we're reducing the amount going to Saudi & Co. by 15% also. 15% of 30% is 4.5%. If we reduce our total oil use by 15%, terrorist-supporting oil suppliers will only see a 4.5% decrease because our reduction is spread among all sources. It will hurt OUR lifestyle more than it hurts THEM. (and of course THAT'S the real goal of the liberals) The only way we can cut off money going to the terrorist-supporting oil-producers is to cut-off BUYING [u]THEIR[/u] oil. And that is controlled at the Gov't/Industry level, not the consumer level. I can't control WHERE Texaco or ARCO gets its oil from, so it's pointless for me to inconvenience myself thinking that will "trickle down" to inconvenience the terrorist-supporting states and thus down to the terrorists. View Quote I believe what we need is a Federal Law (I KNOW, Flame Away) requiring gas stations to have Oil source info at the pump...we can then decide to pay a bit more for non-saudi oil... |
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Quoted: Thank you [b]Sylvan[/b] for your information. You seem VERY knowledgeable in the industry. But you're mistaken in your math: Quoted: If you count Venezuala (which has admitted it has given millions to Al Queda directly), 30% of our oil comes from terrorist finance supporters. [red]If we reduce our oil consumption by 15%,[/red] we have cut the money we send to terrorists by half. View Quote Not really. That 15% reduction is spread among ALL sources of oil (like domestic, Canada, Mexico...) If we use 15% less oil, we're reducing the amount going to Saudi & Co. by 15% also. 15% of 30% is 4.5%. If we reduce our total oil use by 15%, terrorist-supporting oil suppliers will only see a 4.5% decrease because our reduction is spread among all sources. It will hurt OUR lifestyle more than it hurts THEM. (and of course THAT'S the real goal of the liberals) The only way we can cut off money going to the terrorist-supporting oil-producers is to cut-off BUYING [u]THEIR[/u] oil. And that is controlled at the Gov't/Industry level, not the consumer level. I can't control WHERE Texaco or ARCO gets its oil from, so it's pointless for me to inconvenience myself thinking that will "trickle down" to inconvenience the terrorist-supporting states and thus down to the terrorists. View Quote Not only that Macallan, but who's to say they won't simply reduce their output in order to raise the price of oil enough to offset any differential. Remember, OPEC controls a LOT of oil, including stuff that doesn't come from the Middle East. If we consume less, they will lower production so they don't end up losing much money. |
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You missed part of my analysis.
All decreases in demand will be shifted wholly on imports. More to the point, it will be shifted on the most expensive imports (Saudi, due to the distances involved). The US and canada will continue to produce 100% at capacity. The difference is made up from mostly OPEC imports. If we cut oil demand 50%, do you think we would shut in 50% of our wells? Hell no. All reductions in demand is taken from mostly Opec imports. Every gallon of gas you save is directly pulled from our enemies pockets. Saudi Arabia is close to not meeting expenses right now. They can not shut in further wells (and decreased income) without running the possibility of open revolt. Saudi Arabia is a society of people on welfare. They have never worked in their lives. At least those around since the 50s. That standard of living is rapidly disappearing as populations increase. They tried to intimidate the russians into decreasing output by threatening to flood the market with oil and bringing prices down. They can't afford to do that because of their budget crunch and Russia produces with taps wide open and enjoys the artificial high prices while Saudi is at 50% production. Please re-read all my posts. It will explain how a small decrease in our demand can severly affect the Arabs. |
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Quoted: All decreases in demand will be shifted wholly on imports. More to the point, it will be shifted on the most expensive imports (Saudi, due to the distances involved). The US and canada will continue to produce 100% at capacity. The difference is made up from mostly OPEC imports. [red]If we cut oil demand 50%, do you think we would shut in 50% of our wells? Hell no.[/red] View Quote If we reduced oil consumption, the liberals would use that to show that we don't need to open new reserves and we can start shutting down our own domestic production to spare the "delicate natural ecosystems" here. You're assuming that the liberals WANT us to be oil-self-sufficient. The liberals had their chance to show they'd choose domestic oil sources over "terrorist-supported" oil sources with the ANWR vote last year. They chose to support terrorist states. Conservatives should go on the offensive with this latest tactic and put out ads saying, [b]"If you voted for Daschle or Gephardt or Clinton or Rangel, you voted for TERRORISTS!!! [red]Because those Democrats voted to keep us dependant on terrorist-supported oil sources!!![/red][/b][pissed] Again, I appreciate your expertise [b]Sylvan[/b] but you gotta see the real picture behind the picture here. It's politics. The liberals WANT America to be weakened and for THEM to be re-elected. Period. They don't give a fuck about terrorism or oil or the environment or jobs or children or you or me or anything. All they want is POWER. And these are all just excuses to get us to be more dependant, poorer and weaker as a people and less secure and dominant as a nation. |
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Last I knew we sent most of the Alaska crude to Japan.
I know that Mexican Crude has a higher sulfur content than the sweet crude from other areas, but we could quickly get Mexico on line, anwr on line and refuse to export any more oil to Japan. We could easily make up for the Persian Gulf crude in short order. Let the Jap's deal with the Arab's I hope our oil reserves have been topped off since that traitor Bill opened the gates. |
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