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Posted: 9/24/2002 2:52:39 PM EDT
[#1]
"Were to happen"? Wake up, man! It is happening right now. And it will get worse.
Macallan, how's the buy-and-hold, cost averaging strategy working out? Doesn't work too well in a bear market, does it? You dont buy on the dips in this market. You sell on the rallies, and I wouldn't own anything in this market, except perhaps for unhedged gold mining stocks, which pay out fat dividends. Almost everything else is garbage. |
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Posted: 9/24/2002 2:58:50 PM EDT
[#2]
just keep watching the dow drop. is there any reason for it not to? and you might also want to watch the financing terms being offered by auto makers. im starting to see 36 months interest free. people aren't buying. personally, i think things are worse then most people realize. even if its not shtf, its definitely belt tightening time.
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Posted: 9/24/2002 3:05:36 PM EDT
[#3]
I don't think a crash is going to happen. We've seen a huge drop and market values are relatively fair. To drop much further would mean that the companies are worth very very little, which is beyond my comprehension. Look at the AOL value, last time I saw it, it was around $14 or so.
My prediction is that we might have crazy fluctuations, but the crash already happened last 9/11. Terrorists or not, I think it would have happened. Atleast a market can recover faster from fear of an attack over fear of a bad market. In terms of the stock market, it got lucky in that it was able to recover as it has. Sucks about the past couple weeks though. |
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Posted: 9/24/2002 3:07:33 PM EDT
[#4]
The housing market is beginning to implode, too. That was a hot sector for the first half of this year. Check out the stock prices of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and homebuilders. People loading up on debt due to the low interest rates, refinancing and taking out mortgages. Yikes.
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Posted: 9/24/2002 3:10:40 PM EDT
[#5]
Quoted: I don't think a crash is going to happen. We've seen a huge drop and market values are relatively fair. My prediction is that we might have crazy fluctuations, but the crash already happened last 9/11. Check out this chart [url]http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=indu,uu[h,a]wacayyay[pb20!b40][vc60][iUb21!La12,26,9]&pref=G[/url] The Dow took out the 9/11 lows last July, and we're beneath that now. Look out below! |
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Posted: 9/24/2002 3:13:37 PM EDT
[#6]
The stock market is fairly valued? Think again:
[img]http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/images/miller092402a.gif[/img] Even after the huge drop, the market is still historically overpriced, and there is no indication that the economy is getting better or WILL get better for the foreseeable future (a few months down the road) |
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Posted: 9/24/2002 3:19:23 PM EDT
[#7]
Q. Is a Stock Market crash around the corner?
A. Always. |
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Posted: 9/24/2002 3:26:10 PM EDT
[#8]
Raven, I couldn't agree more! Trading at ridiculous PE ratios is just speculation and taking money from suckers, no real VALUE. But that is only my uneducated opinion....
Now a BOOM may be around the corner IF Bush does the RIGHT thing. If we OCCUPY Iraq and pump their oil at MAX production and at a fixed low price like say $9. a barrel, you would see the biggest boom in HISTORY! Not the paper shuffling BS of the Clinton years either. Just solid prosperity. |
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Posted: 9/24/2002 3:29:18 PM EDT
[#9]
mpearcex
What do you think has been happening for the last 18 months? It will continue to decline until all the inflated vaule from the fraudulant accounting is eliminated. |
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Posted: 9/24/2002 3:32:48 PM EDT
[#10]
Cheap oil wouldn't help anything. The main economic problem that is going to weigh the economy down is that there's just too much debt. Consumers, businesses, and now the government are loading up on debt, and much of it will never be paid back.
Once people start defaulting in a big way, credit is going to tighten up so bad it'll be hard to find money for investment. The Federal Reserve is going to print lots and lots of money, to devalue peoples' debts. That kind of inflation is going to send the price of gold through the roof. The only reason it isn't now is because of massive short derivative positions are holding it in place. |
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Posted: 9/24/2002 3:37:27 PM EDT
[#11]
Quoted: Raven, I couldn't agree more! Trading at ridiculous PE ratios is just speculation and taking money from suckers, no real VALUE. But that is only my uneducated opinion.... Now a BOOM may be around the corner IF Bush does the RIGHT thing. If we OCCUPY Iraq and pump their oil at MAX production and at a fixed low price like say $9. a barrel, you would see the biggest boom in HISTORY! Not the paper shuffling BS of the Clinton years either. Just solid prosperity. Well that is why Europe, the Arabs, and Russia are so dead set against our occupation of Iraq. Iraq couldn't make any money to pay its bills at $9, try $19. At the $20 dollar level seems to equate to $1 a gal regular gasoline prices in the US. Russia supposedly has a break even price of $11 a barrel and no one else can come down that low. When oil dropped to as low as 17 dollars a barrel in the mid 90's the Saudis lost a LOT of money. |
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Posted: 9/24/2002 3:39:40 PM EDT
[#12]
[img]http://www.theratsnest.net/ratmoticons/banana.gif[/img] |
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Posted: 9/24/2002 4:32:15 PM EDT
[#13]
It looks like a 1970's scenario culminating in 1980 with insane gold prices. Unfortunately, this time it's unlikely we'll see the kind of growth we saw in the 80's leading up to Y2K and a gigantic technology spending spree.
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Posted: 9/24/2002 5:36:16 PM EDT
[#14]
Quoted: just keep watching the dow drop. is there any reason for it not to? The question should be, is there any reason for it to!? The stock market pisses me off because it is the embodiment of leftist hysteria. There is absolutely no reason the stock market should dive when there is a suicide bombing in Israel. But it does! Who are the idiot investors panicking daily? These fools are nuts, and THEY destroy the economy--not our foreign policy, not terrorist attacks on our soil, not economic indicators, and not quarterly reports. It is these emotionally-weak, ball-less wonders (ball-less wonder is a trademark insult, copyright to me) who create the problem they so fear. In the tech industry and without a job? It is because of the soccer-mom-like investors. |
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Posted: 9/24/2002 6:27:09 PM EDT
[#15]
Ain't no such thing as a crash. Its only weeding out the lil boys that play in the big boys sand box.
You are looking at a ten year bull market that has deflated and stocks that should not have gone up are now being priced where they should be. Think of it this way. You had stocks with say 1 billion in capital yet their issued stock was trading @ 3 billion. There are very few companies capable of that type of growth. Face it the main street investors got suckered in and are now being spat out. Best thing to do is to lick your wounds. Learn that investing takes time. Re asses your goals and jump back in. What is happening in the market now has happened before. Granted it was based on that eras economy. Furthermore it will happen again. The way you prevent it is to diversify. Not only sectors but also asset classes. Be a contrarian. Do not follow trends. |
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