[url]http://apnews.excite.com/article/20020807/D7L87O7G0.html[/url]

Nothing new here....other than the apparent intensity of the feelings.

Don't be surprised when the SHTF on national news. Think the Chinese are going to wait for a strike against Iraq, knowing our forces will be spread too thin to react to an attack against Taiwan? They've certainly prepared long enough to attempt it, but would they?

Wouldn't surprise me.

What scenario's do you think could unfold if this were to happen?

Can someone explain, in simple English, why China is so hot to keep Taiwan from being an independant country?

 "Warfare is the Way (Tao) of deception. Thus although [you are] capable, display incapability to them. When committed to employing your forces, feign inactivity. When [your objective] is nearby, make it appear as if distant; when far away, create the illusion of being nearby."

SUN-TZU's The art of war

I have a funny feeling the Chinese know what the heck they are doing.

I would guess small dinkies.....but its just a guess.....

The reaon is two-fold.  At it's base, it's simple Imperialism coupled with the need to show any rogue provinces that they belong to the motherland, and will be returned by force if they attempt to leave.

Remember the Alamo, and God Bless Texas...

simply ....  Communism.   If the chinese were to allow taiwan to become independent, the rest of the peoples would see this and want freedom too. freedom is very attractive, just ask the former members of the soviet union.  Allowing taiwan to leave would be seen as a sign of weakness and giving in to the U.S.
simple [:D]

The biggest reason is its an unfinished war.  The chinese civil war (well, one of them anyway) hit stalemate when the nationals abandonded the mainland in the late 40s (48 I think?) and set up shop in Formosa (Taiwan).  The commies don't are tired of that little thorn in their side, and want to finish the job.  And there's that other little detail about Taiwan's economy......

FOTBR

Taiwan is history.  
While we have been losing our freedom here in the good ole U.S., china has been busy crashing our spy planes, holding our crew, stealing - well, klinton actually gave them away - our nuclear secrets and convincing the world and anyone else that would listen, that they 'own' the island.
The u.n. is a joke and the U.S. has bartered off Taiwan for trade agreements and the futile hope of long-term peace with china.
It's a done deal, IMHO, they are just working on the timing to make it happen.

Looks like we better get that little exercise in Iraq done quick because our American boys are heading back to Asia.

Keving67

[%|]...So that explains why their agents in Singapore were so busy trolling U.S. gun boards for weapons manuals.

There is a HUGE difference between the middle east and asia.
Think about what would have happened in Afghanistan 15 years ago, if we would have sent in our full military might instead of just some stingers and trainers.
All hell would have broken loose, and we would be in another war we couldn't win.
This was the age of MAD.
Well guess what it still is.

From my experience with the ChiComs during the Korean Conflict, I think the quoted post by FL_BOY is absolutely correct. They are not going to give up and fade away.

There is one major thing driving China. China is becoming and industrial power, with the American Businessman's damned help (The whores). China needs energy to fully develop her industrial might. China does not have sufficient energy resources to rely on. China is in a pissing contest with Vietnam over the Spratley Islands. Barren and worthless except for the OIL DEPOSITS.

China has built roads through the Hymalayan mountains, and through Tibet. Do any of you wonder why China occupied Tibet so long ago? Look at a map and see how Tibet is positioned. Doesn't it look like China could roll right into the Middle East, from Tibet, and have the oil from the grateful Arabs? The Arabs WILL be grateful if China pushes the Israeli's into the Mediterranean. However, it will all stop in Northern Israel, in the valley of the Meggido. The word MEGGIDO means ARMAGEDDON.

China has boasted the she can field an Army of over 200,000,000 men. Has anybody read that significant figure before? The Chinese are strategic planners. When all of their ducks are in a row -- watch out.

We bloodyed Chinas nose in the Korean conflict and the Vietnam conflict. China will be more careful next time. The next time is when all of the signs are right. If China can take Taiwan without a sharp military response from the US. China will go for the oil in the Middle East. Done Deal. The next Democratic president, just might be the condition that causes SHTF.

One more little detail. Keep your antenna pointed toward Russia, and Vladamir Putin. Do you really think that he wants to be our friend?

Anybody want to argue that I am wrong?

Bill

... Oh, if only the "white world" knew.

Taiwan is living on borrowed time, just like Hong Kong did.  While we may supply them arms I really doubt if push came to shove we would defend her from China with military force.
My gut feeling is that China and Russia will have no love for each other when the time comes to choose sides.

I don't think China will move against Taiwan with military force.  I am fairly certain we would use whatever means necessary to stop them, up to and including nuclear weapons.

I'm not convinced China would go after the oil in the Middle East. That would certainly result in full-scale war, and I don't think even they are ready to face those consequences.

Instead, wouldn't it make more sense for them to go after the oil fields in Kazakhstan? Or would they fear retaliation from the Russians?

In any case, those kinds of campaigns require massive logistics. The Chinese have no experience in such matters. At least, not today.

And ruin our trade opportunities? Noooo

Well, Bill, I will argue with you on this point:



So, Bill, the American businessman is a whore, huh?  Well I got news for you, buddy.  There is one major force at work here: the profit motive.  That profit motive extends to you as well as the faceless American businessman.  Do you invest in companies that have low profits just because they don't want to invest in China?  Do you want to pay more for your goods & services because they are made by higher priced labor?

Odds are pretty good that you have stock in companies with Chinese plants or suppliers.  Likewise, you probably have products in your home that were made in China.  

You imply that you fought the ChiComs, but your argument is socialist/communist at best & isolationist at worst.

No argument Bill.
I think you nailed it on the head.
I think this may be worse than Hillary and Gore in 2004.

[img]mywebpages.comcast.net/Elbarfo/shtf.gif[/img]

Nukes, huh? That's a pretty bold move to say the least. You really think we'd launch against China over Taiwan?

WWIII material if I ever heard it....I hope everyone considers exactly what that means.

Unfortunately for US , upcoming say within the next year will be the best time the Chinese will ever get to take Taiwan back. Sorry but that is the way that it is.  If they wait over a year our forces will be built up substantially. Also America is on the crossover point for the development of space based weapons and the Missile Defense Sheild. If China strikes now they have the advantage, because there missiles now have (thanks to clinton) the Accuracy and Range needed to hit American shores. But if they wait to long they will see their Missile improvements negated by a missile shield and will also have their fleets exposed to Space Based Weapons over the course of the next 10 years. China has to go now, because American forces are weaker now then they will be for the next 20 years.
This is the only Window of oppurtunity that China will get and it could be just 1-2 years wide. After that they will never be able to do it.

Having said that even today it is doubtful that China could get a Floatilla across the sea to get to mainland china. There would be a Chinese Graveyard after America got through using her Fast Attack subs and boomers.

Frankly it would be suicide for a chinese skipper. With Los Angeles and Seawolf classe of subs prowling the oceans around your armada. Your a sitting duck from Tomahawks and Advanced Torps.  

Ben

The news you have for me is not exactly earth shattering. Get your towel out and wipe the wetness from behind your ears.

You have an assumptive nature. When you assume you make an [b]ASS[/b] / of [b]U[/b] / and [b]ME.[/b] Have you seen the word assume diagramed before?

I felt the stock market was over blown and ready for a major correction. Accordingly, I sold my stock holdings just before the stock market took it's swan dive. My stock certificates were all in TRW and Hughes Aircraft stock. Nothing made by these companies that had anything to do with products of other countries.

There [b]ISN'T[/b] a product, in my home, that had it's origin, or any of it's components in China. I do have things from Taiwan. I have bitched at Sears, over and over, about their plethora of Chinese products. Have you seen how hard it is to buy shoes that don't have the made in China stamp on them? My two FORD vehicles probably have foreign, non-chinese content in them.

If I have to pay more, because a product is made in this country, by an American worker, so be it. The money stays here. An [b]AMERICAN WORKER[/b] supports his family. The workers salary is folded back into the economy. That isn't exactly Economics 101. Is that news to you?

The profit motive drives business? Your right. Thats [b]ONE IN A ROW[/b] for you. [b]GREED[/b] is a profit motive.

My arguement is Socialist/Commuist at best and Isolationist at worst? Socialist/Communist? [b]WHERE[/b]? Are you rolling and smoking an illegal substance? Roll me one, maybe I would like to look at things as skewed as you do.

I have had serious social encounters with the ChiComs. After these social encounters I went home on a ship, they went home in body bags. If they made it home at all.

I would like to isolate our country from the influx of Immigration from anywhere. England, Canada or Asia, anywhere. Exclude the Japanese Americans from that, the [b]"Go For Broke" 442nd RCT[/b] paid their dues forever. Have you ever heard about the 442nd? If thats being Isolationist, thats me.

My forbearers has been in this country since 1630. They were brought here as INDENTURED SERVANTS i.e. WHITE SLAVES. Their indenture was not for ships passage to the new world. They were forcibly sent out of the Old World (England) and enslaved, for forty years in the New World.

Do your genealogy, find out some things about yourself. I found two Revolutionary War American Pirates. Seth Beckwith and Dionysis Marney.

Members of my family, and myself, have paid our dues in every war this country has ever fought, from the Colonial Indian Wars to Vietnam. We have paid our dues, economic immigrants from other countrys have not. To HELL with our "Wonderful, to the Democraps, Diversity."

Before you accuse me of it, I'm not racially prejudiced. Ninty percent of the immigration to the US is from economic immigrants, from everywhere. Let them stay home and build their own economy. We built ours with out foreign help. Don't throw the Marquis de Lafayette up to me. He was an nineteen year old adventurer and facilitator. He facilitated Thomas Jeffersons and Ben Franklins diplomatic forays to France. After the revolution, he went back to France.

Bill

There is an old biblical quote, "There are none so blind, as those who [b]WON'T SEE.[/b]" Many eyes are closed here. Yours are wide open.

Bill

China won't be going after the Middle East oilfields, as in a military venture. The oil will be given to them, by the Arabs, for their help in pushing the Israeli's into the sea. China will be stopped, and you don't want to be there. China will be stopped in the Valley of the Meggido. Meggido means Armageddon. Blood will run to the depth of a horses bridal.

Bill

I don't think we would use the Nukes in a China, Taiwan conflict.

I like your [b]Fit Hit the Shan graphic.[/b]

Bill

Nut job...party of 1....your table is ready.

And here lies the root of the problem.
Take a group of well educated "I HOPE" individuals that know a few things about history,(military and biblical, seems like one in the same to me.) give them a topic like this and look what happens.
And peaple think that differant cultures can get along.

There ain't goona be no biblical armmageddon featuring the Chinese.Why would the arabs "give"them oil too get rid of Israel?If they didn't have the jews there, what would they blame all of their problems and inadiquacies on?How would they palcate their people?How would they stay in power?They NEED Israel as bad as they need the palestinians WITHOUT a country.Anything less and the truth of arab leadership would come out.

China has better things too worry about, like feeding 1,500,000,000 souls ,muchless equiping,feeding and transporting two hundred million troops.[rolleyes]

Now I'm not gonna say the chicoms aren't dumb enough to attack Taiwan(who'd a thunk Japan and Iraq were that dumb?),but if they do it will be disaster for them whatever else we're involved in.I'm not saying it would be painless for the US(they might sink a ship or two),or for Taiwan(could be a hell of alot of bombardment damage).But in the end the Chinese Airforce and whatever Naval assets they posses will cease too exsist.Add to that the destruction US air power will bring to the mainland staging and lodgistic areas and IMO a disaster of this magnitude would cause the fall of the (no doubt much loved)communist government.I don't believe they can withstand such a humiliation and loss of assets  such as this.I think it would trigger total chaos on the mainland.Not to mention the loss of the US market.Communist China,as we know it, would be finished.I believe the commies are not stupid and understand this.Thus all the tough talk to hide the fundamental weakness of their position in such an undertaking.

This dosen't preclude a suicidal takeover and invasion attempt from a fanatical military,but still the outcome would be the same.

Yes, the Arabs would have to placate their populations. The Saudi's have significant problems at home. Osama bin Laden is an enemy of the Saudi State. Then there is the rift between the Shitte and the Sunni muslims. Saudi Arabia is the only country that has a real problem with unrest in the population. Iraq has a smaller problem than does Saudi Arabia. Saddam Hussein uses brutal measures to repress dissent. Saudi Arabia may just emulate Saddams repression. Remember in the Middle East, Arabic nations are used to dealing with dissent and crime with repressive measures. Steal a loaf of bread and you will get your hand cut off in public. A saudi princess was behead a couple of years ago for having an affair. The ruling Saudi's cut the head off of one of their own, The execution was public.

If the Saudi's have the will do that to one of their own -- what do you think they would do to the political opposition?

Jordan is the only relatively stable Arab State. However, Jordan has more Palestinians in the country than there are Jordanians.



The chinese have the equipment to move their troops. The Mack truck corporation was allowed to sell the chinese a factory, set it up and run it over ten years ago. Have you seen satellite pictures, of the road network built from China to Tibet? I have.



I would like to see Communist China, as we know it, finished. It's just not going to happen. China had her self severely abused in Korea and Vietnam. They haven't got ability and supplies to attack -- yet. China, at this time does not have the apparent ability to make the US back down over Taiwan.

So what would give China the sense that China could take Taiwan, and have an adventure in the Middle East? Some one mentioned it here already. Al Gwhore and Shrillery Klinton would be their ACE in the hole. Or Daschel and Shrillery. Or Dick Gaphardt (Gephfardt) and Shrillery.

If we get a Leftist Liberal president and vice-president. The executive branch branches vacillation and inaction could even give the Chinese the go ahead.

Who, or what, would effectively oppose a president, and compell the president to attack over Chinese agression against Taiwan. The American people. But, only if the American people rose up against the Government!



China's industry is ran by the military. The Chinese Army is involved in all facets of the Chinese economy. Is Chinas army fanatical? Their officer corps is. Tianaman Square anybody?(sp)

Does anyone here remember the "Human Wave" attacks China employed when they went into Korea? I remember them. China's army was horribly equipped, all 5,000,000 of them. Crappy padded uniforms, canvas shoes, no stockings, in the winter time. Chinas winter campaign was horrific on their soldiers. The rear ranks did not even have weapons. The rear ranks simply followed along and picked up battle field casualty weapons. They pressed on and attacked over the bodies of the fallen soldiers they removed the weapons from. Their officers, and Political Commisars were behind them to shoot any soldier that stopped, or wouldn't attack. China has the old Communist thirst for world domination. China has been humiliated by the West every since the days leading up to the Boxer rebellion. Have any of you seen the Movies, "55 days at Peking, and "The Sand Pebbles?"

China is going to go for it. [b]All that China needs is a politically  neutralized (emasculated) United States.[/b]

Bill

I have seen those movies and you're right,China has been the punching bag of the west.Exploited and used for I guess a hundred years before the commie takeover.

I personally don't believe that an armed force motivated by the prospect of being shot by their own officers can be real effective in the long run.I know the Soviets fought this way in WW2,but they had other motivations like treatment by nazi captors(death)and occupation by the nazies.

I do agree(and believe it was proven by clinton;see missles fired over Japan,saddam giving us the bird,terrorist plots...ect.)that liberal leadership in the White House will lead to a dangerous situation around the world, and embolden all our enemies.

The last time I talked to anyone Saudi I know, they stated that "Osama was a friend of the Saudi Arabian people, just not ALL of the royal family".
The ruling family is on shaky ground.

The Saudi Royal family is on shaky ground. But, they have the guns and the military. The only way the Saudi's will be rid of the current Royal family is a revolt in the armed forces.

china is at least a decade away from being able
to pull off a stunt like that. do not underestimate taiwan. even as small as they are
they have the means to put up a good fight.
as far as nukes are concerned china does not
want to destroy something they wish to keep.

Come on man,things are made in China without even being marked,how can you be so sure?

A product, by law, has to have it's origin marked on it, or on the package it came in. I make sure nothing I have has it's origin China. It is the way I do things. I don't aid my enemy!

Bill

Lets see now -- If you can't reply with intelligence -- reply with scarcasm. This gives readers a window into your shallow frame of reference, and limited intellect.

Bill

Listen goof....if your own words that  I quoted don't resound with ridiculousness to you, I don't expect an explanation is going to make any difference. I'll point out a couple of "highlights" so at least you'll be pointed in the right direction.

Well, after reading it, the whole friggin' thing is ridiculous, so here it is one more time....

[b]"China won't be going after the Middle East oilfields, as in a military venture. The oil will be given to them, by the Arabs, for their help in pushing the Israeli's into the sea. China will be stopped, and you don't want to be there. China will be stopped in the Valley of the Meggido. Meggido means Armageddon. Blood will run to the depth of a horses bridal."[/b]

Blood will run to the depth of a horses bribal?(among other things)

Forgive me if your dramatic fire & brimstone Nostrodomis-like horseshit doesn't go down easily with me. I'd feel much more compelled to reply to you if your posting reflected a shred of reality, but I don't have time nor the desire to join you in fantasy land.

Heliflyer has it pretty well (and accurately) summed up.  A lot of it is as Stalin said "Time is on our side."  When we're tied up in the Middle East, watch for the others to attack on another front.  It has always been a two front operation with the Russians and/or CHinese.  I have no idea what they are teaching poeple in military academies and foreign service, but it's probably more brainwashing mush than good sense and experience.

China's People's Oppression Army currently stands at 2.5 million troops, including all branches of the armed forces. There have been significant downsized since Chairman Mao died. They're trying to become a smaller, "smarter", more technologically advanced army. They're halfway there, thanks to Bill Clinton and big business.

Let me see if I can reply with out resorting to hyperbole and gutter language -- It's not Nostradamus, it's the Book of Revelations. If you don't like the book of Revelations -- well, you have a problem that eventually, you will see the answer too.

Your begining to sound like a yappy little ankle biter, so [b]Rage on little man[/b], and while your doing that [b]spell[/b] Nostradamus with a [b]"u"[/b].

I don't think China will do anything.  They are enjoying prosperity they have never seen.  Have you bought something recently and looked at where it's made?   China is making just about everything.  Yes they're dangerous but it's my feeling they don't want to loose any of there export markets by starting a major conflict.  Unlike Japan in WWII, China has lots of natural resources so they don't need to take other territory for that.  Population is another story but a small island probably wouldn't help them much there if they were looking for land to spread out..  Well that's my opion and I'm sticking with it so don't try to change me.

I wouldn't ever try to change a mans mind when he has it made up. But, China doesn't have the energy sources to industrialize herself.

Lets touch on this one item at a time.

It's not that I don't like the book of revelations, it's simply a matter of not believing in it what so ever. That's all. It's no more relevant today than any one of many books written 2000 years ago, filled with mythological nonsense. There is no "man in the sky", there is no god and any book that teaches such, to me, is rediculous. And for a guy "trying" to avoid hyperbole, you'd be much more successful if you didn't lean on the bible so heavily. It's the mother of hyperbole.

[b]"China will be stopped in the Valley of the Meggido. Meggido means Armageddon. Blood will run to the depth of a horses bridal."[/b]

Yeah.....whatever.

Rage on? Is that what I'm doing? Raging? Are you this dramatic [i]all[/i]  the time? Untangle your panties....from the tone of your replies, they're bunching up on you and making you a little cranky. Get over yourself.....and try to stretch that open mind of yours to understand this. Some people don't share your christian view point. Some people have trouble with theories on modern geopolitical discussions based on 2000 year old mythology.

By the way....how do you manage to type with your head shoved so far up your ass? Quite a trick you got there.

It is because communism needs to consume industrial centers to grow and maintain GDP. China is not interested in prevent Taiwan becoming a country. They need to move Taiwan's industry into their economy so they need to capture it. This is the whole reason why we maintain MFN trade status for China... in defense of Taiwan.

MFN also works against our desires to see the collapse of communism to adaption of free-market for China. Many of the Chinese politicans know that if they drop communism, they will most likely lose MFN with USA. Something that would sink China no matter what form of government.