Released: July 15, 2002

UPDATED
Breaking News - Zogby Newswire
Bush job performance
drops 7 points to 62%;
One in three are worse off
today than one year ago;
Nearly one in three worse off
than two years ago;
Majority less likely to
invest because of scandals

[url]http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=601[/url]

President George W. Bush’s overall job performance rating has taken a seven percentage point drop in July to 62%, latest Zogby America results reveal.


The poll, conducted July 12-15 of 1,109 likely voters nationwide shows voters now giving Bush a 62% positive, 38% negative job performance rating, a new low mark since the September 11th terrorist attacks. In June, Bush received a 69% positive, 28% negative job performance rating, and a 70% positive, 30% negative, rating in May.


In February, voters gave Bush a 74% positive, 25% negative rating. The week before the attacks, voters gave Bush a 50% positive, 49% negative job performance rating.


The poll has a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.1%.


Results also show that nearly one in three Americans (32%) say they are worse off financially today than they were one year ago, compared to 45% who say they are financially better off now than one year ago. Another 22% say their finances are the same as a year ago. Respondents worse off today than one year ago include Democrats (38%), Independents (30%) and Republicans (27%).


Nearly just as many Americans (31%) say they are financially worse off today than two years ago, compared to 51% who are better off and 17% who are the same financially. Respondents worse off today than two years ago include Democrats (35%), Independents (33%) and Republicans (26%).


Investor insecurity


Results show the recent stock market scandals involving several major corporations make a majority of Americans (51%) less likely now to invest in the stock market. In comparison, 43% say the scandals make no difference in their likelihood now to invest in the stock market. Majorities not likely now to invest in the stock market include Americans earning $35,000-50,000 a year (58%), 55-69 year-olds (65%) and Moderates (53%).


Results also show half of Americans who own 401k plans (50%) and half (50%) who do not own 401k plans but invest in the stock market are now less likely to invest because of the scandals.


Pollster John Zogby: “Two out of three likely voters tell us that they have an IRA or a 401k. One look at their quarterly report and there goes confidence in the economy and the government. We are looking at a very close election with the Congressional Generic still tied at 34%, but this issue is THE issue.”

My comment:
This is good for us, believe it or not. President Bush will be needing every gun owner's vote. His father forgot who his friends were and he lost his Presidency by a landslide. Hopefully President Bush will not make that mistake.

I just saw something about this on the news.  Apparently, there is a major discrepancy between the Zogby Poll and other polls in this area.  The Fox News and the CNN (I think it was) poll had Bush at 72 and 75 or something, respectively.

Zogby has been very accurate for a couple of years. Employees come and go and that could change, of course.

CNN is simply not capable of an accurate poll. Even a broken clock is accurate twice a day, however, and it is possible this is the case.

Does Fox perform their own work or do they contract out? It is likely the poll that gives higher numbers was done for both CNN and Fox. Polling is big business. It is expected that one firm would claim accuracy over another.

My point is simple. President Bush can count on his conservative base and he can be reelected with only that Republican plus Independent conservative base. That is, if he does not alienate us. He cannot count on any other political group.

Further, September 11, 2001 is fading in the National memory. The current business scandals are and will take a toll on his personal popularity. Only fools believe that President Bush will maintain those record breaking numbers indefinitely.

Maybe you refered to the Gallop poll rather than CNN. Gallop is credible, where CNN is not.

The difference is probably found in that the different polls where likely measuring different statistics. The Zogby poll news release clearly states it is measuring likely voters. The Gallop and Fox poll may not have filtered for "likely voters". A "likely voters" poll is more costly, for sure. Fox may have wanted to know "[i]most likely viewers[/i]" for its corporate interests.

"Most likely voters" is an elusive and desirable measure. Science must meet art for analysis and that analysis is much more difficult to achieve than a lay person might imagine.

The Washington Post and ABC News released a poll that supports the higher Bush favorable numbers of 72%.

However, and this is a very big however, the poll measured a "random sample". This may offer interesting cocktail talk, but it is useless for any practicable electorial purpose. Using such data would be hazardous to Bush's political future.

I find it funny that the people most likely to be worse off financially are Democrats. Of course that kinda makes sense considering the DNC basically panders to the poorer segments of the populace.

You're assumption is wrong.

What assumption? It said in the article that those respondents who were Democrats had a higher percentage saying they were worse off than before.