The National Review
May 20, 2002
The U.S. Will Not Go to War Against Iraq
Not ever.
by John Derbyshire
http://www.nationalreview.com/derbyshire/derbyshire052002.asp
Are you starting to get the feeling I'm getting, the feeling expressed in my
title? The feeling that there will be no war against Iraq? Not this year,
not next year, not ever?
Let me emphasize the word "feeling." As a responsible columnist, I am going
to do my best to justify my title with facts. It all starts with a feeling,
though — a slow-rising, ever-strengthening feeling that it just ain't going
to happen. I spend a couple of hours every morning surfing news sites,
reading the papers, gathering material for NR editorials and web columns. I
go to functions where I meet people who know stuff. I read, I listen.
Occasionally I pick up a revealing fact. Much more often, I just accumulate
impressions. Reader, I have accumulated the impression that the U.S. will
not go to war against Iraq. But let me do my best to justify that.
First of all, this is no way to make war. By "this" I mean these jut-jawed
expressions of determination to act... but not till next year, when all is
ready; these fatuous exercises in "coalition-building" or "seeking
understanding"; these protestations that the time is not yet ripe; these
specious rumors of materiel inventories that need to be built up.
(Concerning which, Colonel David Hackworth, who has a considerable
reputation in these matters, says, to Larry Henry, that it's all bull: "Got
enuff to take Iraq and Iran at the same time." Uh-huh. So all this delay is
for... what? To give us time to organize peace between Israel and the Arabs?
Oh, that won't take long.)
This is no way to make war. The most elementary fact about war, that you
learn in your first week of lectures at staff college, or can pick up for
yourself by reading half a dozen decent books of military history, or just
by talking to veterans, is that battles are won by speed, audacity and
surprise. Gentle reader, in the administration's movement towards engagement
with Iraq, do you see speed? Do you see audacity? Do you see surprise? Do
you even see any sign that our government is capable of those things? I sure
don't.
It is true that one, or even two, though probably not all three, of those
key elements can be dispensed with if you possess overwhelming force. That's
why unimaginative, plodding generals sometimes win wars; that's why Dwight
Eisenhower carried off the D-Day landings (he still had surprise). And we
probably do possess overwhelming force, even allowing for the couple of
years we have given Saddam Hussein to further disperse his biowar
facilities, plant saboteurs in the U.S., acquire a few North Korean missiles
and add another 20 feet of reinforced concrete to his underground command
bunkers. Which brings me to the next issue: Do we actually have the will to
use that force? Or, more to the point, shall we have that will in spring of
2003?