Jobs are fleeing the country, headed for India and China.  Not just manufacturing -- name an industry, they're all leaving, from the high-wage jobs like computer programming to the low-wage jobs like customer call center operator.

The stock market is in the toilet, yet it's still overpriced even though it's already in the toilet.  There are no investments out there that I have been able to find which return a reasonable rate.  (And are legal.  And aren't scams.)

Taxes are going up-up-up everywhere I look.  Ok, Bush gave me $300 back (thanks, dude), but King County wants to take that and more away.  New gas tax, higher property tax, increased vehicle tax, and even some sort of special "software tax" which hasn't yet been explained to me in an understandable fashion.

Last year, prosperity was "just around the corner" every time a new report came out.  This year, it's the same.  We were supposed to be in a recovery by June 2001, then December, then 2Q02, and now companies are talking about maybe in 2003.

At this point, I am seriously considering the likelihood that we are in the same (or worse) boat as Japan -- deflation, unemployment, and stagnation for the foreseeable future.

Does anyone see ANY signs of hope???  Anyone???

Who or what is responsible and how can we fix it?  Voting for the "right people" isn't working.  Pushing the "right issues" isn't working.  Our population is slowly becoming more and more ignorant and sometimes just plain stupid.  It seems to me as long as more than 50% of American citizens just don't care, things will only get worse.

Is it too much of a cliche to say the end is near?

USPC40

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Well, I guess I was meaning in terms of the economy.  I already know we're doomed politically. [:(]

Well, I remember most of the 1970's being one big recession and the way we got out of it was through massive tax cuts. Of course, we also had massive defense spending, resulting in a massive federal deficit, but we payed it off in the 90's.

So, there have been worse situations. One difference I see today is stocks are still over valued, P/E ratios are still high, so there is still room for another collapse in the stock market.

What would you consider a reasonable rate?

How's 2-3 points above inflation sound?

I agree.  I just bought a 25-lb sack of pinto beans, so I'm ready. [:D]

Seriously, you are right about the market.  Prices are in the toilet, but P/Es are still where they were a year ago.  But that's to be expected in a recession, I think.  If the economy can be jump started then business will pick up, earnings will pick up, and stocks will come back to where they should be.  And then maybe I can find a job.

Now, where is that kickstarter?

So with an inflation rate of about 2.5%, you'd be looking for a return of 5% or better.  Aren't there bonds that pay that much?

Yep, I'm with you marvl. My sector, telecom, was so diluted by the cash craze since 1996 that very few companies (except the Bells) have any value except their stock, which has mostly become worthless. The "recovery" of the telecom sector survivors, which won't be up to anywhere close to where it was, is estimated to be somewhere in 3Q03.

I'm fixing to crack my 401(k) in the meantime to keep those mortgage checks going out.

The I-Bond is guaranteed to be 2% above inflation.  Sounds like just what you want.

[url]http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/com/comi0502.htm[/url]

Discussions like this really warms my heart. There is a storm on the horizon.

[b]ABANDON ALL YE HOPE[/b]

[url]http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,52628,00.html[/url]

Ben

At my wife's work place, the management is getting ready outsource Oracle software developement to India. I have enough problems with co-ordination when my users are just down the hallway, let alone half-away around the around world.

Ah, Imbroglio, you're always such a harbringer of cheer and warmth.  I feel better already.  [:D]

It is not just that they don't care, but how do you do you do something about it personally. In today's age of modern mass media, the individual is forgotten, dis-infranchised as the news media puts it. I think that is the same attitude toward voting, "My vote doesn't count." Think about it, out of all the people eligible to vote in the U.S., only half of them actually register; and out of all the registered voters, only half of them actually vote. The half that actually votes turns out to vote is actually overly optimistic, is it more like 30-40% at best, and quite typically 15-25%. The old saying "Some people get lost in the shuffle, but I just shuffle along with the lost," has some meaning.

The booming years of the 90's are over and I don't think they are ever coming back.
IMHO the 2 things that made the 90's economy so good : the internet and the SUV. Everyone had to buy a computer and an SUV. While everyone was buying these things the economy took off. Once everyone had a computer and an SUV the economy slowed down.

Here is a solution: repeal the gun control act of 1986 (or whatever it is called). Then all of us will go out and buy a MG and that will fuel teh economy. LOL

 Hmmm I loved the Eighties.  The 90's economy was great , but near the end it was all HOT AIR, brought on by the Internet shit.  All I have got to say is the 50's will one day happen again and we will forget both the Eighties, and the Nineties they will look like small potatoes by comparison.

Ben

For me personally, I think one of the reasons for the over-valued stock is because a lot of baby-boomers has their retirement funds in the 401Ks and mutual funds, once they start drawing on them and stop investing in them, there is going to be interesting gyrations in the stock market.

The 90's economy was WAY better then the 50's. The 50's economy was not that great. They had several recessions. Everyone looks at the 50's as the golden era of this country. The 50's economy was nothing special.

Jarhead_22, I know how you feel and what you mean. Many businesses are over-extended in debt, the corporate equivalent of a lot of people over-extended in credit card debt. I used to work for a division of MCI, and my retiremet account in MCI stock is in a downward death spiral.  I have heard on the Fox news that MCI's suppliers are asking for collateral.  Some "so-called" knowledgeable people are even talking that MCI may not survive down the road.

I'm thinking maybe the end of civilization as we know it would be a welcome change; less stressful.

Whenver I need to talk to customer service in high tech I end up talking to someone in India.



I don't think we'll see actual deflation on an annual basis. Japan has no real population growth/immigrants. We do, and that puts upward pressure on home prices (making living more expensive).

The market wil be in a trading range for a while. It takes time to digest the gains of the 80s and 90s, especially if you look at it from a historical perspective. Not as long as Japan though, which enjoyed a fantastic postwar multi-decade boom.

You left out the scourge of Methamphetamine & crack cocaine. Depending on which geographic region and socio economic class you live in.

Drug resistant TB & Staph are making things interesting in the hospitals and prisons too.