Is the Recession Over?

Posted: 4/22/2002 1:39:27 PM EDT

I haven't seen any "I Lost My Job" threads here in a while. [:)]

Posted: 4/22/2002 1:46:37 PM EDT

[#1]

I don't think its over but I believe we've seen the worst of it. Some places are still having problems but overall I think it'll be back to normal by the end of the year (or at least near normal).

Posted: 4/22/2002 1:48:03 PM EDT

[#2]

Depends on who you ask. Some people never saw a recession.

Posted: 4/22/2002 1:57:08 PM EDT

[#3]

Our business is beginning to turn around, spring manufacturing, but we are still at about 5% under where we were in 2000.

Posted: 4/22/2002 2:32:05 PM EDT

[#4]

btt

Posted: 4/22/2002 2:36:45 PM EDT

[#5]

I don't think we'll be on the downside anymore, I think we're starting to head back up but very slowly, so that even though we're not still in recession technically, the slow upclimb still makes it feel like it.

I think it will take a while to get to pre-recession levels.

my .02 oh wait, it's .01 cent now :-)

Mike

Posted: 4/22/2002 3:23:01 PM EDT

[#6]

Some people use a crystal ball, tea leaves, planetary alignments, Chinese sticks, tarot cards, numerology or palm reading.

I am a scientist so I use more statistically-based method.

I use a formula to derive a single measure that takes into account the leading economic indicators from the past 17months and I plot that value on a graph against both the S&P500, Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond index, petroleum futures and gold prices.

Where all lines intersect (or closest to intersection) I draw a one inch red circle.

Then I post that graph 100yrds away, load up a 30round mag, aim my Bushmaster at the dot and fire away. If all of the brass that's ejected falls within a three foot circle, then I know the recession is over. [:P]

Posted: 4/22/2002 3:42:52 PM EDT

[#7]

i am redoing the mortage on my house and the interest rates are going back up. That must count for something.

Posted: 4/22/2002 3:45:59 PM EDT

[#8]

I haven't seen any "I Lost My Job" threads here in a while.

View Quote

That's because there is nobody left to lose a job. [:(] Is there still a recession? Hell yes!

Posted: 4/22/2002 3:54:50 PM EDT

[#9]

Um... actually there was no recession. There have been some bad economic times recently but a recession is defined as "two or more cosecutive quarters of negative growth in the GDP (Gross Domestic Product).
Although the economy has not been great, there was a small (I think like less than 1%) growth in the first quarter of the year, so we did not have a "true recession."

I'm sorry but I just finished a macroeconomics class and am anxious to show off my newfound knowledge! [:D]

Posted: 4/22/2002 4:05:37 PM EDT

[#10]

The law firm I work for is in the Rust Belt.
It is half litigation and half business.
Lit is running hot with people suing companies for firing them and companies suing over bad deals.
Business side there is darn few new deals. Some sell offs as places go down the tubes, but a lot of corps are riding the place right into BQ court.
The end is not here yet.

Posted: 4/22/2002 4:06:56 PM EDT

[#11]

Quoted:
Um... actually there was no recession. There have been some bad economic times recently but a recession is defined as "two or more cosecutive quarters of negative growth in the GDP (Gross Domestic Product).
Although the economy has not been great, there was a small (I think like less than 1%) growth in the first quarter of the year, so we did not have a "true recession."

I'm sorry but I just finished a macroeconomics class and am anxious to show off my newfound knowledge! [:D]

View Quote

I'msa sorry buts wes don'ts like no college boys' around these parts. If yous wants to stays then yous better learns to talks like this and drops out uh college...yous dig?

[:)]

Posted: 4/22/2002 4:41:53 PM EDT

[#12]

Quoted:
Some places are still having problems but overall I think it'll be back to normal by the end of the year (or at least near normal).

View Quote

I guees that would depend on how one defines "normal". The booming economy of the 1990s was definitely not typical of normal. Most younger people have no appreciation how economically blessed we were as a nation during that time. They just assumed that there would always be a better job waiting for them or that at least they would have a place to land. Furthermore, I wonder if most of this generation understands what a real recession or depression would be like.

Those holding their breath waiting for the return of a boom such as that of the 90s will likely die of asphyxiation.

Posted: 4/22/2002 6:36:21 PM EDT

[#13]

Quoted:
Um... actually there was no recession. There have been some bad economic times recently but a recession is defined as "two or more cosecutive quarters of negative growth in the GDP (Gross Domestic Product).
Although the economy has not been great, there was a small (I think like less than 1%) growth in the first quarter of the year, so we did not have a "true recession."

I'm sorry but I just finished a macroeconomics class and am anxious to show off my newfound knowledge! [:D]

View Quote

You are correct. For some reason I thought we did have two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

There seems to be a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the nation. People have seen how vulnerable institutions like Wall Street are and they worry that Osama is still out there, planning another attack.

Posted: 4/22/2002 6:39:26 PM EDT

[#14]

Is the recession over?

Not for me.....

SRM

Posted: 4/22/2002 8:05:59 PM EDT

[#15]

I have noticed that my net worth continues to recede into the recesses of my portfolio. I believe that is a recession regardless of what Alan Greenspud might postulate.

Posted: 4/23/2002 4:13:30 AM EDT

[#16]

Not until my stocks triple so I can finally break even.

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