http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-09-11/obama-visits-could-help-dems-hold-the-house-scholar-says/

Deep
in red state country, the last Democratic optimist has a model that
shows Democrats keeping a slim majority. Ben Crair on how to pull it
off.













Mellen’s isn’t the only model that shows the Democrats holding on to
the House. But unlike the others in this category, which look mostly at
slow-changing economic fundamentals, Mellen’s model shows that President
Obama himself can make a difference between now and Election Day.
Mellen looks at the impact of presidential campaign appearances on
behalf of House candidates in midterm elections. With just two
exceptions—George W. Bush in 2002 and Bill Clinton in 1998—the party of
the sitting president has lost House seats in every midterm election
since FDR’s Democrats picked up seats in 1934. "I’m looking to see if
making these campaign appearances can actually help to mitigate these
losses,” Mellen says.











































 
 

1)   Focus on the close races, ignore the rest

2)   Dirty tricks

3)   October Surprise

Win the House?  They already have it.  Don't they mean hold the House?  And I doubt they will.

How many are close?

The Republican Party is still being run by people who think that George W. Bush was a social and fiscal conservative.  These are the same people who were positive that what American needed in 1976 was more Gerald Ford (instead of that crackpot Ronald Reagan).  Don't underestimate the ability of liberal country club Republicans to screw up.

And interesting idea that has been floated for about nine months now has been the option of "forgiving" the underwater part of any loan held by Fannie and Freddy.  That will cause all sorts of problems, in most case the minute the paperwork is signed when everyone who could not sell because their home was underwater is now suddenly able to sell, but it may happen.  And that could get a lot of people to the polls to vote for Obama.  Afterward, it would be a goat rodeo of epic proportions, but I am kind of OK with that.

Getting the libs out of office is surely not guaranteed. It's going to take work to root them out. What's worse is some of the R options they have to be replaced with are hardcore rhinos. Boner as speaker isn't going to be particularly good either as he's a big contributor to the problems were in right now.

Even if the republicrats win were still screwed.

screwed I can handle
its anally raped witha  chain saw the past 2 years that is getting annoying.

Is Acorn still in play?

Left leaning & middle left (On social issues ) posters here have to get over Bush and hold their nose & vote GOP because to do otherwise in this Midterm election only empowers Socialist leaning Far Left & Democrats who have empowered them .

Something similar –– see my Fannie and Freddy post above.  The idea would be to distract and defuse the conservatives and to energize the liberals just enough to keep the balance of power from shifting.

I don't think that it's the libertarians and anti-Christianity people who won't turn out to vote that's the issue.  The conservatives that Bush did everything possible to discourage have to turn out, and Obama is making that happen pretty well.  The question is whether he can both increase the Democratic turnout and discourage the conservative turnout.

This is starting to remind me of the McCain-Palin Landslide articles that were popping up in 2008.

The only Discouragement on the Right is with the Lack of courage with some middle of the road Republicans to stand against Far Left ideals of Recent era Democrats in DC , The Middle Left & Independant leaning  voters with issues including GOP union with conservative & religeous moral majority will always be stand offish with GOP .

Not only do I think that the Republicans virtually have a lock on taking back the House, and with a respectable margin,  I also think

that nobody should count out the possibility that the Republicans could take the Senate, too.





This is the Class III Senate race.  37 seats are up for election.   Of them, 20 seats are held by Democrats, but only four of those seats

are considered to be "safe" from takeover by a Republican.    So it's not impossible that up to 16 seats could change parties.



I think that no matter what happens,  at the very worst, the Democrat lead in the Senate will be cut by no less than four seats.



It will totally end any chance of anything getting railroaded through Congress without Republican cooperation.  (Thus, true bipartisanship.)





CJ

I think that we are talking about different things.

In any event, the GOP's lackluster support of the angry right this year has not hugely blunted the impact of Obama's amazing cascade of bad decisions in energizing the conservatives, and I think that even if the victory isn't as lopsided as I would hope, the impact of Obama's socialized medicine on the economy and the related tax regs on basically everyone (I just watched a nice fellow who works for a church-based non-profit spend eight hours with a CPA and tax adviser trying to figure out how to stay compliant with next year's regs) will lead to a much larger victory in the future.  These decisions have long tails.  The impact of making corporations shift their health care burden onto the state (with radically lower benefits and similar if not increased costs) will be seen by even stupid people as the direct result of Obama's health program.

This isn't like when Clinton was in office and it was easy to cover up things unless you were reading the American Spectator or National Review.  When Obama does wrong, it's in the Wall Street Journal the next day.  That may not help conservatives that much yet, but the impacts of Obama's legislation over the next few years will absolutely be laid at his feet.

THE fatal flaw of Saul Alinski's "Rules for Radicals"...the left-wing will ALWAYS tell you what they fear most...then you act on those fears. This is why "Rules for Radicals" only works until your enemy figures out your playbook, then you're toast.

Expect even more of the same voter registration fraud that occurred in '08. Now that the Panthers and SEIU have de facto immunity from any voter intimidation charges you can expect more strong-arm tactics from them. But since this election will have a much lower minority turn out, 2010 is only a dress rehearsal for the Big Show in 2012.



2012 will have the most potential for extreme registration fraud, voter intimidation and possible violence.

I believe that Republicans "may" win the House but we are the ones being delusional if we think that people with common sense make up a large majority of voters.

This country is full of stupid people and crazy shits who all vote Democrat or do what thay have to do to let the Democrats in (ACORN and Lezbetarians).

It will be a rare Congressional district where the Republican candidate wins by more that 10%.