In a Major CIA Reassessment, US Will Escalate Military Operations in Yemen

Obama administration officials are calling for an escalation of U.S.
military operations in Yemen, the home of Al-Qaeda on the Arabian
Peninsula (AQAP).  There are no plans to scale back operations in
Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The Washington Post
reported two weeks ago that this is a consequence of a remarkable
change in assessment: That AQAP is now considered to be a greater threat
to US security than the core al-Qaeda group in Pakistan and
Afghanistan.  Officials believe that unmanned Predator drone strikes had
decimated al-Qaeda in Pakistan over the years, causing Pakistan’s
al-Qaeda to be relatively less dangerous to American security than AQAP.

Pursuant to this revised policy, the US Armed Forces Central Command
has proposed delivering up to $1.2 billion in weapons and related
expenses for Yemen’s security forces, to be used in fighting AQAP.

In recent years, US military assistance to Yemen has expanded dramatically, costing $155 million in 2010 alone, according to AFP.
In the past, the aid has included military helicopters, patrol boats,
trucks, and training, while American special forces also work in Yemen.

American involvement is suspected of being deeper than that.  In
June, a story broke that missile parts from an American cruise missile
were found in an al-Qaeda training camp, from an attack in Yemen in
December.  However, Yemeni authorities insist that the attack was
carried out by their forces alone, according to the Independent.

This escalation has been building since December 25 of last year,
when an attempted bombing of an airplane over Detroit failed, and it was
learned that the perpetrator, the "underwear bomber,” had been trained
by AQAP in Yemen.

In January, U.S. Gen. David Petraeus recommended providing additional
security funds to Yemen, but said that no American troops would be
involved, according to CNN.

The new weapons being considered for Yemen are armed, unmanned aerial
drones operated by the CIA, mirroring the CIA’s drone campaign in
Pakistan, according to the Wall Street Journal.

It’s not known whether the change in CIA assessment means that the
question of US troops in Yemen is now on the the table, but the Yemenis
themselves insist that US troops are not wanted, since the Yemeni troops
can handle the problems by themselves, according to the Yemen Post. (See "1-Sep-10 News — Amsterdam arrests highlight Yemen confusion.”)

There are widespread fears for the Yemen government’s stability.

Yemen is fighting two separate wars at the same time.  In northwest
Yemen, the army is fighting a rebellion by ethnic Houthis.  This fight
spilled over the border into Saudi Arabia earlier this year, bringing
Saudi airstrikes into the Houthi region of Yemen.  It’s also suspected
that Iran is supplying some weapons to the Houthi rebels, who practice a
form of Shia Islam.

In the south, Yemen is fighting al-Qaeda militants, who have taken
control of a large region and set up terrorist training camps.  The CIA
assessment is that AQAP is becoming more agile and aggressive, and
capable of training many more suicide bombers, so that sooner or later
one of them will succeed in launching a successful terrorist attack on
American soil.

Al-Qaeda has turned into a kind of "virtual terrorist group,” a brand
name for loosely linked local Sunni Muslim terrorist groups in
countries from the Pacific, through Asia and the Mideast to Africa, and
north through central Asia to Russia and the Caucasus.  The objective of
Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda leaders is to replicate the success of the
1979 Islamic Revolution of Iran to create a Sunni Muslim state in some
country.  They’ve tried in Iraq, Somalia, Yemen, Pakistan, Uzbekistan,
and other countries, and they’ve failed so far, but they will not stop
until they succeed.

The situation in Yemen is becoming increasingly serious, and the
American involvement in Yemen continues to escalate.  Whether or when
American troops will be introduced into Yemen remains to be seen, but it
seems certain that if a severe crisis develops in Yemen, then American
troops may well be considered necessary.