Quoted:
Watch for energy prices to rise.
If wells are not drilled today, they won't be producing in a few years. Meanwhile, current wells will produce less and less as time goes by.
There are still platforms and wells damaged from Katrina, Rita, Gustav, and Ike.
The ripple effect of all the lost jobs will be tremendous. And all this at a time when the industry has just barely been hanging on, not recovering. There are a lot of rigs "stacked", that is, idle, just parked and rusting away.
But that's all OK, the very thought of an oily pelican dying is just unbearable.
The whole logistical tail is not understood at all by people who have never been in any industry that needs to do things other than move paper (and I am not denigrating moving paper, either). It's not just the wells that won't get drilled, it's the orders for carbide to Kennametal that won't go through, the small machine shops in Houston that will not put on the part time people permanent, it's the hot shot drivers that will go ahead and just keep the Dodge Cummins that they have instead of buying a second one, and so forth. When there is a resumption of activity, it will take 18 months to get people lined up who will be able to do the unpleasant, difficult things well –– no matter what you are paying them –– in an industry where people like that are needed. What do I mean? Welding inside of a drilling structure when it's 102 outside with 95% humidity, working on a rig in the Texas summer, making 16 deliveries in three days over a 50 county area of really expensive oil tools where you have to get someplace remote, unload, do a ton of paperwork properly (yes, for a 15 curie source, let alone three or four), and get out of there, while not getting tickets, getting into accidents, or being a jerk to anyone who will complain bitterly, and so on.
You can't turn this on and off like a switch.