http://blog.aopa.org/opinionleaders/2013/08/26/the-next-and-biggest-threat-to-ga-part-2/?WT.mc_sect=blog&WT.mc_id=130830epilot=

GA's biggest threat is time.  It's already dying anyway.

What's the world coming to? John and Martha King accosted by SWAT? If there is anybody who is less intimidating than those 2 they would be corpses. I think I have every one of their videos, even their littlest tidbits of info serve me to this day

Fuel prices killed GA in 08, it is just twitching in it's death throes.

I was guessing fuel prices and ADS-B

Here are my views on the outside but who is peering through the windows.  I just got my Third Class medical and am now looking at flight schools to earn a private pilot license.

1.  Lack of information / commonality.  Want to buy a gun?  There are 67k or 69k gun dealers in the USA; finding a shop even in the most restrictive states is relatively easy.  Want to buy NFA/Class III?  Google and (until recently) the corporate or trust methods got around the most paranoid CLEOs.  Language/lingo a problem?  It's relatively easy to get things deciphered.  Want to learn about aviation?  Honestly, if it wasn't for my Grandfather building three of his own planes, being lucky enough to know some private pilots, and having the EAA only 1.5 hours from here, I'd be lost.  All airports have the security mystique around them, even if it's a truly friendly GA airport.  Books?  Google?  Yeah, there's info-- but it's easier to find good info in plain english about other stuff.  Aviation is far more complex and technical than most pursuits.

2.  Cost.  Anybody can get into shooting for $500.00.  That's a 10/22, a .22 pistol, and a brick of .22.  (Maybe we'd have to go with used firearms given the current ammo price shocks.)  $500.00 to get into flying?    Okay, how about $5,000.00?    Flying may not be for everybody (the FSA who refuse to accept responsibility for their actions become a lot deadlier in the air, those with truly serious health problems/seizures, etc.), but right now it's limited to folks who have $10,000.00+ to burn just to get their license.  That's not counting anything post-license; the cost to rent a plane, avgas, insurance, the cost to buy a plane, hangar rental.......  Aviation is priced outside of the means of most folks.  Yes, there are ways to cut costs, but it's still not a cheap hobby and we are in a poor economy.

Both of these issues, plus our economy, contribute to the decline of GA.  Fewer GA participants mean that there will be fewer people around to object when the government engages in negative activities toward GA.  Then we have a third thing contributing to the decline of GA- unfavorable legislative requirements.  You know, sort of like folks trying for firearms ownership in some areas.  And more people driven out means less people in GA which means less people to raise hell when whoever proposes some additional legislative burden...  And the cycle continues.

Mike

I have to admit, the cost is getting out of control.   And the last time I was flying (about 5 years ago) LSAs were going to save us all!  We see how well that worked out.  

Even then, the cost is still manageable once you get through training. I think the 50 hours/year (an hour a week) is VERY common for all but the most active pilots.  Renting from the right place or joining a flying club can get you in the $400-500/month bracket. There are a LOT of people that have car payments in this range!  If not that, a boat payment, time share/vacation property, etc.  At least with flying, you can stop for a while if you run into a tight spot... can't stop an installment loan!

One thing that I seem to be picking up on that makes me grin is the new pushback against all of this security bull shit.  10 years ago we were getting our first taste of the GA security theater, and far too many pilots were willing to to live with it.  I have no idea what seems to have changed things - maybe people are finally getting antsy with cops running around shoving guns in pilot's faces or arresting glider pilots for not breaking non existent laws.  It seems that the government is really testing the waters in regards to restricting the lives of Americans across the board and maybe with the general public now aware that the NSA is reading their sext sessions we'll have a societal shift in viewpoint.  I hope.

Flying = freedom and we just can't have that.  The money is a huge factor.  Looking at the costs and other barriers... Insurance is pretty similar to car insurance costs so that is not too bad. Gas costs what gas costs. Regulation is the real problem. Here are a few ideas feel free to add yours.

1.  Eliminate the medical for all private flying.
2.. Change the annual inspection most planes do not get flown enough in a year to matter.  Make it every 2 or even 3 years or 250 hours whichever occurs first.  If you are really worried have some form of simple condition inspection annually with a major inspection every few years.
3.  Streamline the certification process for aircraft.  
4.  Limits on product liability law suits.

Just some thoughts.

There's no conspiracy to stop flying.  People nowadays have the attention span of a text message and think pocket knives are dangerous.  Really no compelling reason for people to take up a hobby that is so expensive and requires so much work unless it's a burning desire to fly.  

Think about it.  People have the entire Internet and worldwide communication in their pocket and you want to explain to a kid that he has to listen to morse code to ensure he's listening to the correct radio station?  You mean I don't just turn a key and the engine runs perfect all the time?  What's a carbeurator and why does it need to be heated when its 100 degrees outside?  

Most people would rather play angry birds because it's easy and requires no commitment.

An annual for the 10 hours most private planes fly a year is silly, and I'm an IA.

Partially this as well; it truly isn't getting any brighter out there.

That said, all of the existing reasons given don't help anything either.

Mike

I wouldn't bet on all Part 91 operations, but VFR in piston singles?  It's coming if the medical branch doesn't get pissy about losing their power.


This part's moving forward; the FAA is under a mandate to implement that in 2016.  If the rulemaking committee's report is any indication, it'll be huge: LSA-style certification for "primary" aircraft, an "owner-maintained" option for older production aircraft, and more...

Fuck AOPA. They were cheerleading the TSA when their shit came down. they were cheerleading the Patriot Act. Fuck the fuckers.




Yeah. Right. Because totalitarian regimes are so receptive to that sort of thing.

I started flying in 1976 by riding my bike 11 miles to the airport. I could not afford both a car and flying lessons, and being such a dweeb, it was an easy choice to not buy a car sense I couldn't get a date anyway and spent my money on flying lessons.

In 1976 I rented a new Cessna C150 at a cost $16.50 per hour and $10 for the instructor. New C172's could be bought for three times the cost of a new Cadillac. I made $2 an hour washing dishes and exchanged 9-10 hours of unskilled labor for an hour of flying.

Today, the exact same airplane (a 1976 vintage C150) costs about $90 an hour to rent (wet in both cases), new C172's are still about three times the cost of a new Cadillac and you can exchange 8-10 hours unskilled labor (minimum wage then and now) for an hour of flight time.

Guys, the relative or inflation adjusted price is the same. Any actual inflation adjusted cost increase has come form over regulation and government interference in our economy.