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Posted: 6/7/2022 9:34:27 PM EDT
[#1]
There's no doubt that (another) day of reckoning is coming. It happens in every cycle.
You just don't want to be the last guy standing without a chair when the music stops.  When to sell is a lot more important than when to buy. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 9:35:54 PM EDT
[#2]
May was the second highest increase in US history
exceeded only by April which was the highest increase in US history... ...and all just as credit card rates are rising. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 9:48:27 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: May was the second highest increase in US history exceeded only by April which was the highest increase in US history... ...and all just as credit card rates are rising. Try to find a niche place to stash your money. That's about all you can do. Capital goes where it's welcome. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 10:11:38 PM EDT
[#4]
 Take the Money and Run - I Have a Gub, Apt Natural |
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Posted: 6/8/2022 12:47:01 AM EDT
[#5]
Wouldn’t this make visa, Mastercard and the like a buy or am I wrong?
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Posted: 6/8/2022 12:59:09 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Wouldn’t this make visa, Mastercard and the like a buy or am I wrong? I have no idea because I never invest in debt. The problem is that Creditism has become the dominant secular religion, where almost everyone believes the lie that credit is money, when in reality credit is only the lack of money. |
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Posted: 6/8/2022 5:55:01 AM EDT
[#7]
I don't know a single person who has not taken out a HELOC. Regardless whether they used it or not, I'm sure that is considered in the consumer credit report. You would be stupid not to take one out with the inflated home prices just to have the extra line of credit. Maybe I'm wrong because I'm not really sure how to read their numbers, but a HELOC is revolving credit. The hair on fire headlines make it read like everyone is maxed out on cards which is not the case.
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Posted: 6/8/2022 6:11:06 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I don't know a single person who has not taken out a HELOC. Regardless whether they used it or not, I'm sure that is considered in the consumer credit report. You would be stupid not to take one out with the inflated home prices just to have the extra line of credit. Maybe I'm wrong because I'm not really sure how to read their numbers, but a HELOC is revolving credit. The hair on fire headlines make it read like everyone is maxed out on cards which is not the case. If you NEED that extra line of credit then you ARE stupid. [or just plain dumb] |
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Posted: 6/8/2022 6:28:25 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If you NEED that extra line of credit then you ARE stupid. [or just plain dumb] Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I don't know a single person who has not taken out a HELOC. Regardless whether they used it or not, I'm sure that is considered in the consumer credit report. You would be stupid not to take one out with the inflated home prices just to have the extra line of credit. Maybe I'm wrong because I'm not really sure how to read their numbers, but a HELOC is revolving credit. The hair on fire headlines make it read like everyone is maxed out on cards which is not the case. If you NEED that extra line of credit then you ARE stupid. [or just plain dumb] You can and should take out a HELOC regardless of whether you need it when the home prices are this high. What you use it for will be what makes you really smart or really dumb. Also, do not forget that everything people take out large credit lines for has gone up in price tremendously. This should also inflate the credit numbers. My point is that while it doesn't look good, it's not econonic Armageddon. |
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Posted: 6/8/2022 7:06:04 AM EDT
[#10]
The percentage of ''smart things'' people tend to do with a HELOC is probably in the single digits.
Probably on par with a 35 year old I/O boat used in salt water but in excellent condition with no hidden rot or other issues. |
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Posted: 6/8/2022 7:16:10 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You can and should take out a HELOC regardless of whether you need it when the home prices are this high. What you use it for will be what makes you really smart or really dumb. Also, do not forget that everything people take out large credit lines for has gone up in price tremendously. This should also inflate the credit numbers. My point is that while it doesn't look good, it's not econonic Armageddon. Explain why I should if I have zero plans to use it please. |
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Posted: 6/8/2022 7:28:44 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I don't know a single person who has not taken out a HELOC. Regardless whether they used it or not, I'm sure that is considered in the consumer credit report. You would be stupid not to take one out with the inflated home prices just to have the extra line of credit. The G19 consumer credit report does not include any loans secured by real-estate so HELOC's are not covered by it. Also it only includes credit utilized (balance sheet receivables), not unused available credit. For credit cards it also does not indicate how many accounts are paid off in full every month versus how many have a balance and accrue interest; it's just a snapshot of the total amount due. Read the footnotes as they explain very well what is included versus not: https://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/g19/current/ |
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Posted: 6/8/2022 7:37:43 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Explain why I should if I have zero plans to use it please. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: You can and should take out a HELOC regardless of whether you need it when the home prices are this high. What you use it for will be what makes you really smart or really dumb. Also, do not forget that everything people take out large credit lines for has gone up in price tremendously. This should also inflate the credit numbers. My point is that while it doesn't look good, it's not econonic Armageddon. Explain why I should if I have zero plans to use it please. Well if you know for sure you will not have any use for a line of credit at all the in next 10 years, than I guess it's not for you. It could end up being cheaper than another loan you might take. If there's so much doom coming, why not have a line on the side ready to go? Disregard my prevous posts about HELOCs pertaining to this thread anyway. I looked real quick this morning and I didn't see the info Bubbles posted above me, so my theory is out the window. |
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Posted: 6/8/2022 7:42:23 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Explain why I should if I have zero plans to use it please. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: You can and should take out a HELOC regardless of whether you need it when the home prices are this high. What you use it for will be what makes you really smart or really dumb. Also, do not forget that everything people take out large credit lines for has gone up in price tremendously. This should also inflate the credit numbers. My point is that while it doesn't look good, it's not econonic Armageddon. Explain why I should if I have zero plans to use it please. A HELOC can be a safety net because the liquidity in your home is the consistency of brick. Suppose you and your family are happily living out your lives, parents working, kids going to school, etc. Disaster hits the primary breadwinner - car accident, bad medical diagnosis, whatever. You burn through your health insurance up to the deductible and maybe end up on short or long-term disability at 66-75% of your regular salary, or even lose your job. Maybe you decide to sell the home and downsize due to your circumstances, but you'll be able to live in it while you prep it for sale instead of being rushed into a stressful move. If you apply for the HELOC now, while times are good, and don't tap it, it's available in an emergency while you take the time to get your life back together, with an interest rate a lot lower than you'd pay on credit cards. It gives you a lot of flexibility that you wouldn't have otherwise. |
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Posted: 6/8/2022 10:10:03 AM EDT
[#15]
Rising credit card debt in itself doesn't concern me. People are out buying things which is good for many businesses. Rising credit card debt with declining saving is a warning sign to me.
What I will watch now is credit defaults. If credit card defaults start to rise substantially that would be a time for me to consider moving more to cash. |
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Posted: 6/8/2022 11:42:29 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I don't know a single person who has not taken out a HELOC. Regardless whether they used it or not, I'm sure that is considered in the consumer credit report. You would be stupid not to take one out with the inflated home prices just to have the extra line of credit. Maybe I'm wrong because I'm not really sure how to read their numbers, but a HELOC is revolving credit. The hair on fire headlines make it read like everyone is maxed out on cards which is not the case. The graphs don't lie. Debt spiked when the government stimulus teat dried up. Capitalism is a dying ideology which has been replaced by Creditism. Creditism weakens people's character and makes them ripe for tyrrany. The Bible says: "Owe no man." ...so I don't.  |
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Posted: 6/8/2022 2:42:56 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Rising credit card debt in itself doesn't concern me. People are out buying things which is good for many businesses. Rising credit card debt with declining saving is a warning sign to me. Quote HistoryQuoted: Rising credit card debt in itself doesn't concern me. People are out buying things which is good for many businesses. Rising credit card debt with declining saving is a warning sign to me. This report will really give you chills then. https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=3&isuri=1&1921=survey&1903=76#reqid=19&step=3&isuri=1&1921=survey&1903=76 Scroll down in the spreadsheet to line 35. Granted, much of 2021 was skewed due to the stimmies, but the savings rates for 2022 are dropping pretty quickly. What I will watch now is credit defaults. If credit card defaults start to rise substantially that would be a time for me to consider moving more to cash. I agree though they are historically low. They did increase a bit in FY2022 Q1. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLACBS |
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Posted: 6/8/2022 3:59:23 PM EDT
[#18]
Nice information Bubbles, thanks.
OBTW, I sold Visa late this morning, took gains. |
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Posted: 6/8/2022 4:11:36 PM EDT
[#19]
Line 34 on the spreadsheet, personal saving. Is $815 the amount saved per month or total savings?
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Posted: 6/8/2022 5:30:50 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Line 34 on the spreadsheet, personal saving. Is $815 the amount saved per month or total savings? Neither, it's the total amount in billions saved by everyone in the US (not sure if it applies to citizens working outside the US who bank in the US). |
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Posted: 6/8/2022 5:50:58 PM EDT
[#21]
My only debt is my fixed rate mortgage that’ll be paid off in about 7 years.
Got a good diverse investment portfolio, and 10-ish years until retirement. |
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Posted: 6/8/2022 5:52:53 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I don't know a single person who has not taken out a HELOC. Regardless whether they used it or not, I'm sure that is considered in the consumer credit report. You would be stupid not to take one out with the inflated home prices just to have the extra line of credit. Maybe I'm wrong because I'm not really sure how to read their numbers, but a HELOC is revolving credit. The hair on fire headlines make it read like everyone is maxed out on cards which is not the case. I don’t have a HELOC and I’ve got a few hundred grand in equity in my house. Maybe I’m just stupid. |
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Posted: 6/8/2022 6:06:42 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I don’t have a HELOC and I’ve got a few hundred grand in equity in my house. Maybe I’m just stupid. Don't be so sensitive. Just speaking in generalities and not calling anyone stupid. |
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Posted: 6/9/2022 5:18:23 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I don't know a single person who has not taken out a HELOC. Regardless whether they used it or not, I'm sure that is considered in the consumer credit report. You would be stupid not to take one out with the inflated home prices just to have the extra line of credit. Maybe I'm wrong because I'm not really sure how to read their numbers, but a HELOC is revolving credit. The hair on fire headlines make it read like everyone is maxed out on cards which is not the case. I've got two homes and have never taken one. I'm probably an outlier, but there it is. |
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Posted: 6/10/2022 5:27:46 AM EDT
[#25]
HELOCs can be and have been canceled in mass by banks in bad economic times. when economic risk increases bank come under pressure to reduce their exposure to it. having unused credit on the books is a risk.
i do like the idea of having an unused HELOC. but please don't let a HELOC be the leg that your safety net is standing on. |
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Posted: 6/11/2022 1:36:29 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I've got two homes and have never taken one. I'm probably an outlier, but there it is. I built two homes, total worth seven figures, and I will never carry one cent of debt on them. I operate my business and my life from the position of 100% solvency. It renders me impervious to the corrupt debt driven Creditist economy. |
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Posted: 6/11/2022 2:19:09 PM EDT
[#27]
FWIW I built my current house over 20 years ago from cash/Ebay stock sale. I have never had a mortgage on this house, and I don't do helocs.
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Posted: 6/11/2022 2:34:03 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: FWIW I built my current house over 20 years ago from cash/Ebay stock sale. I have never had a mortgage on this house, and I don't do helocs. This is a wise approach. You always want to operate from a strong financial position, and there is no stronger financial position than solvency. It is one of the Five Pillars of Capitalism: 1. Decency 2. Responsibility 3. Productivity 4. Solvency 5. Frugality |
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Posted: 6/18/2022 10:11:24 PM EDT
[#29]
Bitcoin is $18,500
evaporating another 9% today. It's competing as a contender for a crash, but is not the mother of all crashes. |
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Posted: 6/19/2022 2:12:06 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This report will really give you chills then. https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=3&isuri=1&1921=survey&1903=76#reqid=19&step=3&isuri=1&1921=survey&1903=76 Scroll down in the spreadsheet to line 35. Granted, much of 2021 was skewed due to the stimmies, but the savings rates for 2022 are dropping pretty quickly. I agree though they are historically low. They did increase a bit in FY2022 Q1. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLACBS I saw a graph of the savings rate and it had two spikes which corresponded to the two main stimulus payments, but just as quickly reverted to the original downward trend as if no money had been received. I think of savings like gasoline. Is it wise to drive around on a nearly empty tank? |
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Posted: 6/19/2022 9:45:24 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I think of savings like gasoline. Is it wise to drive around on a nearly empty tank? Thats actually not a bad analogy enough gas "cash" to keep the car functional "cover your expenses for a set period of time" but don't fill your trunk with gas it will leak out / inflation will drain your cash if its just sitting there. |
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Posted: 6/19/2022 10:11:38 AM EDT
[#32]
I don't understand why you wouldn't have a HELOC if you own a house and it's free and clear with the entire mortgage paid off. The money just sits in your account costing you nothing if you don't use it. I keep one for 100k just because I can. I'm debt free.
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Posted: 6/19/2022 10:18:14 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I don't understand why you wouldn't have a HELOC if you own a house and it's free and clear with the entire mortgage paid off. The money just sits in your account costing you nothing if you don't use it. I keep one for 100k just because I can. I'm debt free. Why? Because there is almost always one person in a family that can't leave said money alone and just sees ''more shit'' or a vacation sitting there untouched. People tend to get a HELOC because they intend to use it for something. I have savings, why do I need a HELOC if I have money elsewhere? And if you have your house paid off, pretty much any financial institution will give you a HELOC forever because, unless it's a shit hole, it has actual value with no one else holding paper on it. |
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Posted: 6/19/2022 10:24:23 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Wouldn’t this make visa, Mastercard and the like a buy or am I wrong? not if people stop paying their bills. which is what will happen. Just like the people that gut their houses before they are foreclosed on. |
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Posted: 6/19/2022 10:32:28 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Why? Because there is almost always one person in a family that can't leave said money alone and just sees ''more shit'' or a vacation sitting there untouched. People tend to get a HELOC because they intend to use it for something. I have savings, why do I need a HELOC if I have money elsewhere? And if you have your house paid off, pretty much any financial institution will give you a HELOC forever because, unless it's a shit hole, it has actual value with no one else holding paper on it. I agree. The power of economic independence resides in unused potential. We we will never use our equity. |
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Posted: 6/23/2022 2:22:55 AM EDT
[#36]
I was given info I believe to be legitimate from someone I trust and know. He works on load testing (among other things) for a large US brokerage. Their management wants to have the ability to handle 20x their typical daily transaction volume by Q4.
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Posted: 6/23/2022 2:40:56 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I was given info I believe to be legitimate from someone I trust and know. He works on load testing (among other things) for a large US brokerage. Their management wants to have the ability to handle 20x their typical daily transaction volume by Q4. What does that mean exactly? Lots of sale transactions? |
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Posted: 6/23/2022 2:43:58 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I don't understand why you wouldn't have a HELOC if you own a house and it's free and clear with the entire mortgage paid off. The money just sits in your account costing you nothing if you don't use it. I keep one for 100k just because I can. I'm debt free. When I got my Heloc I told the banker I had no intention of using it. To drive my point home I said “I don’t need two Escalades to drive my kid to school”. Know why he said? “Yeah that’s what everyone says until their wives see how much money you just “got””. I laughed and explained I’m not married. Shut him up real quick and I’ve never touched it. |
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Posted: 6/23/2022 2:55:29 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What does that mean exactly? Lots of sale transactions? |
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Posted: 6/23/2022 3:13:02 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They're expecting unprecedented volume later this year...20x daily transactions is essentially akin to massive bank runs (I don't think they're prepping for lots of buying.) Oh so your aren’t just saying lots of selling, you’re saying people are going to try to physically get their money out of the banks? |
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Posted: 6/23/2022 12:59:48 PM EDT
[#41]
I design pools & Landscaping for custom home builders here in the Phoenix area. We are booked out 16-24 months and I have more work coming my way than I can get to. I realize the current clients are locking into a contract and have their loans already set up. But I have not seen a slow down yet. I have talked with a few of the builders and none of them have slowed down. I realize you may not see it until the crash is on you, but I am dealing with people who have millions on the line and they are still chopping away. I will say they are being a little more cautious to make sure contracts are signed and down payments are made, but business is still humming along.
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Posted: 6/23/2022 1:55:02 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I design pools & Landscaping for custom home builders here in the Phoenix area. We are booked out 16-24 months and I have more work coming my way than I can get to. I realize the current clients are locking into a contract and have their loans already set up. But I have not seen a slow down yet. I have talked with a few of the builders and none of them have slowed down. I realize you may not see it until the crash is on you, but I am dealing with people who have millions on the line and they are still chopping away. I will say they are being a little more cautious to make sure contracts are signed and down payments are made, but business is still humming along. There's a lesson in your comments. Disaster is never uniform or universal. I'm a tradesman in my own business, and it's been business as usual right through the feminized liberal virus hysteria and the repeat of the stagflation 1970's. Live long enough and you get to see everything happen at least twice.
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Posted: 7/14/2022 1:48:54 PM EDT
[#43]
PPI number came in at 11.3% today.
Ouch. https://www.ar15.com/forums/general/PPI-at-11-3-inflation-going-to-get-worse/5-2569101/ |
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Posted: 7/14/2022 7:27:04 PM EDT
[#44]
I get these ridiculous credit card offers in the mail just about every day. I'm not at an 850 soo, the cards are meh and of low quality. We are definitely headed for at minimum a credit card crash. Depleted savings and these "shark cards" as I like to call them at at THIRTY PERCENT INTEREST. Like..okay, peoples savings are dwindled to nothing, of course they are going to activate these cards to use to offset and supplement inflation, with no savings..and will never get the cards paid off, at least not in the short term. We doomed again like 2008, just a different sector.
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Posted: 7/14/2022 8:53:56 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I don't know a single person who has not taken out a HELOC. Regardless whether they used it or not, I'm sure that is considered in the consumer credit report. You would be stupid not to take one out with the inflated home prices just to have the extra line of credit. Maybe I'm wrong because I'm not really sure how to read their numbers, but a HELOC is revolving credit. The hair on fire headlines make it read like everyone is maxed out on cards which is not the case. Now you do. What do I need a HELOC for? |
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Posted: 7/14/2022 9:07:28 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Don't be so sensitive. Just speaking in generalities and not calling anyone stupid. In all fairness, post #7 you did... I don't know a single person who has not taken out a HELOC. Regardless whether they used it or not, I'm sure that is considered in the consumer credit report. You would be stupid not to take one out with the inflated home prices just to have the extra line of credit. Maybe I'm wrong because I'm not really sure how to read their numbers, but a HELOC is revolving credit. The hair on fire headlines make it read like everyone is maxed out on cards which is not the case. |
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Posted: 7/14/2022 11:22:00 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Regardless whether they used it or not, I'm sure that is considered in the consumer credit report. You would be stupid not to take one out with the inflated home prices just to have the extra line of credit. Maybe I'm wrong because I'm not really sure how to read their numbers, but a HELOC is revolving credit. The hair on fire headlines make it read like everyone is maxed out on cards which is not the case. Quote HistoryQuoted: Regardless whether they used it or not, I'm sure that is considered in the consumer credit report. You would be stupid not to take one out with the inflated home prices just to have the extra line of credit. Maybe I'm wrong because I'm not really sure how to read their numbers, but a HELOC is revolving credit. The hair on fire headlines make it read like everyone is maxed out on cards which is not the case. Sigh. HELOC loans are absolutely not included in the G19. Neither are mortgages or home-equity loans. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/about.htm: Part I. What Consumer Credit Data Are Available on the G.19 Statistical Release, "Consumer Credit," and How Are These Data Calculated? The G.19 Statistical Release, "Consumer Credit," reports outstanding credit extended to individuals for household, family, and other personal expenditures, excluding loans secured by real estate. Total consumer credit comprises two major types: revolving and nonrevolving. Revolving credit plans may be unsecured or secured by collateral and allow a consumer to borrow up to a prearranged limit and repay the debt in one or more installments. Credit card loans comprise most of revolving consumer credit measured in the G.19, but other types, such as prearranged overdraft plans, are also included. Nonrevolving credit is closed-end credit extended to consumers that is repaid on a prearranged repayment schedule and may be secured or unsecured. To borrow additional funds, the consumer must enter into an additional contract with the lender. Consumer motor vehicle and education loans comprise the majority of nonrevolving credit, but other loan types, such as boat loans, recreational vehicle loans, and personal loans, are also included. The G.19 also reports selected terms of credit, including interest rates on new car loans, personal loans, and credit card plans at commercial banks. Historically, the G.19 also included series that measure the terms of credit for motor vehicle loans at finance companies. In the first quarter of 2011, publication of these series was temporarily suspended because of the deterioration of their statistical foundation. The statistical foundation is in the process of being improved, and publication will resume as soon as possible. Heck go to the link and read through everything; it's long and will likely tell you way more than you wanted to know about the report. It's all about credit cards, auto loans, education loans, etc. Not one word about real-estate loans, other than they are not included in the report data. |
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Posted: 7/15/2022 1:35:05 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: not if people stop paying their bills. which is what will happen. Just like the people that gut their houses before they are foreclosed on. Funny you should mention that... ...for that is precisely what is happening in China right now. Chinese stop paying their mortgages. |
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Posted: 8/6/2022 11:26:54 AM EDT
[#49]
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Posted: 8/6/2022 11:31:19 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryNot real great on some of the above but the one's I do understand are damn scary. Keep buying citizenry.....................even if you don't have the money to do so. Wonder what it would be if student loans were again subject to the borrowers making payments. |
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