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Posted: 12/30/2005 1:52:54 PM EDT
just wondering.
Link Posted: 12/30/2005 2:36:01 PM EDT
many!!
Link Posted: 12/30/2005 2:39:23 PM EDT
Not enough!
Link Posted: 12/30/2005 3:37:13 PM EDT
Link Posted: 12/30/2005 5:11:42 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Blue84S10:
Not enough!



+1, safety in numbers!
Link Posted: 12/30/2005 9:24:26 PM EDT
Oodles!
Link Posted: 12/30/2005 9:41:24 PM EDT
Oodles as in more than 100? 300? 1000? As it is said... Safety in numbers.
Link Posted: 12/30/2005 9:47:46 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 12/30/2005 9:48:04 PM EDT by Blue84S10]

Originally Posted By DrFrige:
Oodles as in more than 100? 300? 1000? As it is said... Safety in numbers.



I'm betting more than 300 but probably less than 1000.....
Link Posted: 12/30/2005 9:48:49 PM EDT
Closing in on a 1000 from my intel.
Link Posted: 12/30/2005 10:15:49 PM EDT
I think its more than you guys might think. I talked to a couple dealers, and from what they were saying that the numbers are ludicrous.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 8:11:06 AM EDT

Originally Posted By readytorock556:
I think its more than you guys might think. I talked to a couple dealers, and from what they were saying that the numbers are ludicrous.



From just the three FFL guys that I talked to the numbers were around 300.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 8:26:53 AM EDT
I've talked with many a supplier, and have gotten a feelfor what is being sent in ti Kali.
If you remember the gold rush days you are old, but this is the new Kali gold rush for gun owners, The number I am hearing is well over 1000, but lesss then 2000.
This is significant whether the list gets added to or not.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 9:28:41 AM EDT
My FFL has processed at least 100 DROS forms, and many people are DROSing more than one. I'd say 200+ receivers is a fair guess for this one dealer.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 10:20:45 AM EDT
I heard wind of a shop who had done 500 within the first week of this thing. There are also the major guys woh started it who did 100+ on their fist deal, not to mention any private sales they took care of. I personally know that a dealer I 'talked' to who wanted to stay WAY below the radar has done probably close to 30-50 and asked everyone to not spread his name. If he is doing that much (and he made mention that people have asked and he had to tell them he had no more) think of how much the big wigs who are spreading their name are doing.

I also heard that there are 600 store front FFLs in California. Let's say 10% of those do the transfers, and each one averages 100. You are looking at 6,000 receivers. I would honestly guesstimate the number is closer to 5,000.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 11:10:08 AM EDT
Im going to laugh when they list the Stag's and DSA's only...

Did you guys ever think you may be cutting your own throat early with all of the little names?...

I know there are lots of little guys out there pumping them out, but maybe you should have waited on the little guys for round two?...It is a gamble, DOJ could list everyone known to the system right now, but why do their work for them to only get one of a named lower into the state?...
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 11:21:55 AM EDT

Originally Posted By R-32:
Im going to laugh when they list the Stag's and DSA's only...

Did you guys ever think you may be cutting your own throat early with all of the little names?...

I know there are lots of little guys out there pumping them out, but maybe you should have waited on the little guys for round two?...It is a gamble, DOJ could list everyone known to the system right now, but why do their work for them to only get one of a named lower into the state?...



People make it sound like the DOJ are a bunch of dummies that dont know shit from shinola. These guys are doing their homework. They KNOW that there are a bunch of manufacturers out there and they are doing their research. You THINK for one moment they are only gonna list only three?
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 11:24:32 AM EDT

Originally Posted By R-32:
Im going to laugh when they list the Stag's and DSA's only...

Did you guys ever think you may be cutting your own throat early with all of the little names?...

I know there are lots of little guys out there pumping them out, but maybe you should have waited on the little guys for round two?...It is a gamble, DOJ could list everyone known to the system right now, but why do their work for them to only get one of a named lower into the state?...



Anyone of the so called "little names" posted in the ee will almost assuredly be listed, as they probably want to list all the known receivers avialable to date.
If stag is such a big name, why are they back-ordered?
Seems to me a big name would have plenty in stock.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 11:43:44 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 12/31/2005 11:44:19 AM EDT by warpspeed]
Here is something to consider........

What if you want to travel out side of the state to compete? Like in Hi-Power Rifle or 3-gun. With a off-list lower that you have built a 10rd CA compliant AR with , you simply use the appropriate tool to remove the fixed 10rd mag once you have left the state and arrived at the range. When you are done, switch it back before your return.

So many competitors in CA cannot compete because they cannot legally own the necessary firearms. And don't give the crap about if you don't like it move out. It is not that easy.

The only reason to get a off-list lower is to build a 10 rd CA compliant AR. no more - no less. If it gets listed as a AW, then it get's listed. If not, then not.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 11:50:42 AM EDT
well any I buy are investments.

If they get listed I get ARs, if they don't get listed they sit in my safe until I need money and sell them to anyone, in California or not, to get my money back. It's like property, you may own 3 houses but you don't need to live in all three of them. They could be investments. I don't need another fixed mag AR, so they are either going to be real ARs, or they are going to be good as gold siting in my safe.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 11:53:24 AM EDT

Originally Posted By DrFrige:

People make it sound like the DOJ are a bunch of dummies that dont know shit from shinola. These guys are doing their homework. They KNOW that there are a bunch of manufacturers out there and they are doing their research. You THINK for one moment they are only gonna list only three?




Not at all, Read the post, I said it is a gamble...Why do their work for them.

Im doing my part for a couple of Cali residents, and trying to figure out if I can register a couple of mine just in case I do end up moving back. But look at all of the new names on the boards looking for lowers. ( Im betting a lot of morons that got info from people like us, and only understand half of the laws).I have no doubt that unless California changes the legal process, you could have just hit a few names, and a bigger number of the ones that did not get listed would be avail next round....at this point, you will have 75 different brand names (that is a hypothetical number) and 3 that get listed, and even though you all would be happy the rest are all now going to have to be fix'd 10 rd mags...

If I were the Evil type, I would not list any of your lower's at all. ( and you all would be happy with that). But im not the evil type, and Im thinking of you guys getting round two and three....ect, in motion.

anyway good luck, Not all of ARFcom hates California..
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 12:01:10 PM EDT

Originally Posted By R-32:

Originally Posted By DrFrige:

People make it sound like the DOJ are a bunch of dummies that dont know shit from shinola. These guys are doing their homework. They KNOW that there are a bunch of manufacturers out there and they are doing their research. You THINK for one moment they are only gonna list only three?




Not at all, Read the post, I said it is a gamble...Why do their work for them.

Im doing my part for a couple of Cali residents, and trying to figure out if I can register a couple of mine just in case I do end up moving back. But look at all of the new names on the boards looking for lowers. ( Im betting a lot of morons that got info from people like us, and only understand half of the laws).I have no doubt that unless California changes the legal process, you could have just hit a few names, and a bigger number of the ones that did not get listed would be avail next round....at this point, you will have 75 different brand names (that is a hypothetical number) and 3 that get listed, and even though you all would be happy the rest are all now going to have to be fix'd 10 rd mags...

If I were the Evil type, I would not list any of your lower's at all. ( and you all would be happy with that). But im not the evil type, and Im thinking of you guys getting round two and three....ect, in motion.

anyway good luck, Not all of ARFcom hates California..



Oh this whole thing is confusing to me. Thats why I love my job I guess.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 12:05:04 PM EDT

Originally Posted By DrFrige:

Oh this whole thing is confusing to me. Thats why I love my job I guess.



Same here....

Link Posted: 12/31/2005 12:17:46 PM EDT
The DOJ can ammend the AR/AK list whenever they want: so why the delay? My stance has always been that they are doing their homework, and they are doing it good. They are going to get every manufacturer they can and add them all at once. In once single day 99% of this will be stopped. After that, it's simply a single person's task to ammend the list as new manufacturers get added. Think about it...

Random Company: We will be releasing our own AR variant shortly! Pre-order now.
DOJ: Bans Random Company's AR variant
Random Company: Releases new AR variant and it is already banned to the CA population.

I will say one thing: An opportunity has arisen to possibly aquire particular firearms that we have not been able to for some years. That means many people who were too young can now own rifles they had only been able to dream about until now (let's face it, anyone under the age of ~25 on this site and lives in California day dreams about ARs on a regular basis; why else would they be here when they don't have one?). If I were any of you, I would scramble to get what you wanted, and help your friends, neighbors, etc. along the way. If one of the receivers is DROSed, then they have the manufacturer. So why not get as many as you can now for you and your family/friends? The DOJ is not forgiving and this won't be a "This week we don't want these anymore." They are taking their time to effectively stop these receivers from coming in for good.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 12:18:07 PM EDT
Good news...

Have you ever known a lawmaker that did not want to pass a new law?????????????????????

<­BR>
Roy
Link Posted: 1/1/2006 5:56:06 AM EDT
A couple hundred, bought by 50-60 guys.

No significant quantities of lowers will move until they are displayed/sold openly at the gunshows and offered by the chain stores like Turners.
Link Posted: 1/1/2006 8:07:55 AM EDT
There atleast a minimum of 15 FFL's doing the Dros on off list lowers.
I know one FFL has exceeded 200 lowers by himself.
x that by minimum of 15 FFL's in Cali (probably alot more 20-50 ffl's)

You get @3000 or so.
My guess would be more though because its really picking up steam now.....
Link Posted: 1/1/2006 11:41:25 AM EDT

Originally Posted By realwar:
There atleast a minimum of 15 FFL's doing the Dros on off list lowers.



I'm sure its many more than that, yet they are doing it in relative secrecy and its mostly in very small numbers. A pawn shop moving a couple lowers here and there.


I know one FFL has exceeded 200 lowers by himself.


So some are less secrative than others. But really, if he is able to move 200 guns (Lowers) in the last few weeks then he is selling more product than the typical FFL moves in 3 months. A very profitable time for him and he should advertise his services here. His booth would certainly be the most popular at the gunshow if it were covered with Stag and fulton lowers for sale.


.than x that by minimum of 15 FFL's in Cali (probably alot more 20-50 ffl's)


Of all the gun owners i know, i only know 2 have have tried to buy lowers the last few weeks. neither has actually held product in their hand in spite of some rather elaborate lengths.

if lowers were openly for sale at the corner gunshow then you might sell a few thousand in a few weeks. But as long as it remains a find your own suplier out of state then pay some pawn shop or kitchen table FFL to do the ttransfer, the numbers will remain much lower tha your estimates.

Link Posted: 1/1/2006 1:15:51 PM EDT

Originally Posted By AR15fan:

So some are less secrative than others. But really, if he is able to move 200 guns (Lowers) in the last few weeks then he is selling more product than the typical FFL moves in 3 months. A very profitable time for him and he should advertise his services here. His booth would certainly be the most popular at the gunshow if it were covered with Stag and fulton lowers for sale.

if lowers were openly for sale at the corner gunshow then you might sell a few thousand in a few weeks. But as long as it remains a find your own suplier out of state then pay some pawn shop or kitchen table FFL to do the ttransfer, the numbers will remain much lower tha your estimates.




I sat at a kitchen table with a line of more than 50 people in one day. over 250 lowers sold that day alone. this was almost a month ago, and that FFL is so backed up he's refusing new business at this point, all by appointment only now and scheduled way into this month.

I think the numbers are bigger than anyone can guess, just going on how quiet the transactions I saw were. If there are 5 more dealers like that, well.... it adds up really fast.
Link Posted: 1/1/2006 1:36:43 PM EDT

Originally Posted By HalfMoon:

Originally Posted By AR15fan:

So some are less secrative than others. But really, if he is able to move 200 guns (Lowers) in the last few weeks then he is selling more product than the typical FFL moves in 3 months. A very profitable time for him and he should advertise his services here. His booth would certainly be the most popular at the gunshow if it were covered with Stag and fulton lowers for sale.

if lowers were openly for sale at the corner gunshow then you might sell a few thousand in a few weeks. But as long as it remains a find your own suplier out of state then pay some pawn shop or kitchen table FFL to do the ttransfer, the numbers will remain much lower tha your estimates.




I sat at a kitchen table with a line of more than 50 people in one day.



Are such home based FFLs even legal in California anymore? I dont know. Is he still processing DROS by mail or does he have the automated computers in his home office?
Link Posted: 1/1/2006 1:41:14 PM EDT
He had 5 computers and everything was done online.
Link Posted: 1/1/2006 3:10:31 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/1/2006 3:11:20 PM EDT by 50Freak]
Heard from a Stag guy. He said the company had close to 1,000 receivers in stock before this thing took off a couple of weeks ago. As of 12/30/05 they were all out. Says pretty significant chunk of these things went to Cali.



And this is only counting Stag, and not the other manufactors.
Link Posted: 1/1/2006 11:48:55 PM EDT
I bought one.
Link Posted: 1/2/2006 10:59:52 AM EDT

Originally Posted By 50Freak:
Heard from a Stag guy. He said the company had close to 1,000 receivers in stock before this thing took off a couple of weeks ago. As of 12/30/05 they were all out. Says pretty significant chunk of these things went to Cali.
.



Since stag doesnt ship directly to Cali FFLs how would they know where those lowers went?
Link Posted: 1/2/2006 11:18:19 AM EDT

Originally Posted By DrFrige:
[People make it sound like the DOJ are a bunch of dummies that dont know shit from shinola. These guys are doing their homework. They KNOW that there are a bunch of manufacturers out there and they are doing their research. You THINK for one moment they are only gonna list only three?



What my FFL told me was that the court ruled that the DOJ had to prove actual commerce had occurred in the state from a particular manufacturer before that manufacturer's lower could be listed.

My FFL DROS'ed over 200 between Dec. 26 -Dec 28th and he is looking for the small manufacturers so that when the DOJ lists the ones that have been sold already he can switch manufacturers.

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