Time estimate if you submitted today? - Page 2

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[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Time estimate if you submitted today? (Page 2 of 5)

Posted: 7/16/2017 9:11:10 PM EDT

[#1]

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so, people think if you buy today, you might get it by december? What if you ordered in March and check cashed in april? Does that mean I should have it by october?

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No, not really, it's relative to when yours is received and it's always changing.

I do have a feeling that once we fully get out of July, months of submissions are going to take weeks to approve. So it should really speed up quickly.

Posted: 7/16/2017 9:44:23 PM EDT

[#2]

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I'm ready for these approvals to start speeding up. I'm waiting on 3 cans submitted between September and January. I'd be willing to bet if you submitted today you would have your can in 5-7 months.

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I think 5-7 months is a good estimate from right now. I'm about to find out as my Recce 7 is on a form 3 right now. Be nice to get a call at Christmas saying to come pick up my can. I've got an SD-N6 pending since jan '17 and a tirant 45 in feb '17. Should have them back by Christmas

Posted: 7/16/2017 10:32:29 PM EDT

[#3]

Lets hope they keep working at the same pace to get caught up. I really want my purchase from January to get here asap. :)

Posted: 7/16/2017 11:31:41 PM EDT

[#4]

I got my last sparrow back like almost 2 months ago. It was submitted the day before the deadline.

Posted: 7/16/2017 11:40:03 PM EDT

[#5]

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Because they will be working on the pickup picture load for quite some time.

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Yeah but in the end your overall wait on something you want to buy now will still be longer if you wait to submit.

Posted: 7/16/2017 11:52:50 PM EDT

[#6]

My last 2 pre 41F form 4s were 375 and 407 days. And they were well before the last minute rush.

I'd say at least a year.

Posted: 7/17/2017 11:18:33 AM EDT

[#7]

Kirk: Captain Spock, damage report.
Spock: Admiral, if we go "by the book". like Lieutenant Saavik, hours could seem like days.
Kirk: I read you captain. Let's have it.
Spock: The situation is grave, Admiral. We won't have main power for six "days". Auxiliary power has temporarily failed. Restoration may be possible, in two "days". By the book, Admiral.

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Buy regularly and the wait seems like hours instead of days.

Posted: 7/17/2017 11:47:50 AM EDT

[#8]

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Quoted:

Buy regularly and the wait seems like hours instead of days.

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I liked getting the surprise calls out of the blue that some of mine were ready to pickup. Nice to have something rolling in every few months.

Unfortunately my pipeline is drying up.

Posted: 7/17/2017 11:53:27 AM EDT

[#9]

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I liked getting the surprise calls out of the blue that some of mine were ready to pickup. Nice to have something rolling in every few months.

Unfortunately my pipeline is drying up.

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My last one was approved 7/6
Waiting for a call
Kinda sad actually

Posted: 7/17/2017 12:04:13 PM EDT

[#10]

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I hope (and think) you're right. I'm getting an itchy trigger finger.

I looked on NFA Tracker and I've charted the trajectory of Form 4s based on recent data.

http://i.imgur.com/wBvAxyx.jpg

Looking good!

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LOL I hope this is true.

Posted: 7/17/2017 12:41:16 PM EDT

[#11]

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I agree with 5 months

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I would say 6 months, not 12 months. 5 months would be even better.

I have gotten several back from after July 13th.

Posted: 7/17/2017 3:25:21 PM EDT

[#12]

I filed two Form 4s in January. Sitting at 6 months today. I wonder when those will be approved.

Posted: 7/17/2017 3:44:50 PM EDT

[#13]

Well, I just took the plunge (again) today...so I'll let you know.

Day 1.

Posted: 7/17/2017 5:30:23 PM EDT

[#14]

My two 07/16 cans came back in 06/17. I'm very curious how quick my 10/16 and 06/17 cans come back.

Posted: 7/17/2017 6:01:03 PM EDT

[#15]

longer than it will take for HPA/SHUSH to pass......

Posted: 7/17/2017 9:46:53 PM EDT

[#16]

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Quoted:

Buy regularly and the wait seems like hours instead of days.

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This is how I see it as well, I'm a bit late as my last purchase was 6 months ago. I'm going to buy another before the months up and another 2 in a few months. I like making the 1 hour trip to visit my sot every couple of months, I just need some new cans to come out or I'll own the whole TB Ultra series before too long.

Posted: 7/17/2017 9:58:32 PM EDT

[#17]

Four forms sent Friday. Debited today (Monday). I love how the money comes out immediately as we wait for a year plus.

Serenity now.

Oh well, on to the next project...

Posted: 7/18/2017 12:41:53 AM EDT

[#18]

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Quoted:
Well, I just took the plunge (again) today...so I'll let you know.

Day 1.

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OP checking back in. Some of the optimism in this thread made me say screw it so I decided to take the plunge as well...

I'll be waiting on a form 3 and form 4.

Day 1.

Posted: 7/18/2017 3:23:25 AM EDT

[#19]

Way too much optimism in this thread, IMO.

I submitted a F4 something like 3-4 months ago and I don't plan on getting it back this year.

Posted: 7/18/2017 7:51:21 PM EDT

[#20]

I got 9 form 4s back that were summitted on July 12 2016 back in over 9 to 11 month period my buddie just got one of his two back. Still waiting on his last it was a year this month.

I hope the time table shortens. I'm getting ready to play dome more on some items.

But other than that. Just turn your paper work in and forget about it. It's approved when you get it. Time flys by fast. When your older

Posted: 7/18/2017 10:54:58 PM EDT

[#21]

My 8/01/16 check cashed form 4 (submitted 7/22/17) showed up at my dealer for correction on 7/15/17, so I assume it would have been approved a few days earlier than that if it hadn't been for the wrong damn zip code

. Gotta be past the hump now.

Posted: 7/18/2017 11:47:31 PM EDT

[#22]

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Quoted:
Inside 7.

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I'm thinking around 7 too, some people dont take into account that some find the new rules on CLEO an advantage

Not to mention it seems like everyone and their mom knows about the "ease" of NFA stuff now. Just 5-8 years ago it seemed like it was fairly quiet and seeing a silencer was SEMI rare

If silencer shop gets their kiosk thing widespread it will literally be "walk in and buy" like a firearm, with a wait, which in my opinion will do fairly well. As easy as the trust situation was I think people just never wanted to do it.

Posted: 7/19/2017 6:53:52 AM EDT

[#23]

I'm thinking 5 months. NFA Tracker had one come back from August yesterday and a late July a few days earlier. There's probably still some pre 41F in the pipe but not that many submitted in the 6 months after. As long as staffing stays constant to clean up the backlog.

Posted: 7/19/2017 8:36:45 AM EDT

[#24]

I'm headed to my dealer in an hour to start the form 4 on a Saker 556K ASR.
Hoping for 7 months but I guess we'll see.
The wait shouldn't be to bad though as this is my 4th can so I know what to expect and have others to shoot.

Posted: 7/19/2017 8:52:33 AM EDT

[#25]

My next one will attach to stanbard A2 flash hiders having to buy muzzle attachments can get expensive.

Posted: 7/19/2017 11:11:23 AM EDT

[#26]

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Quoted:
I'm headed to my dealer in an hour to start the form 4 on a Saker 556K ASR.
Hoping for 7 months but I guess we'll see.
The wait shouldn't be to bad though as this is my 4th can so I know what to expect and have others to shoot.

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Waiting, while we shouldn't have to, doesn't bother me up to about the 5th/6th month. Then I start to get antsy

Posted: 7/19/2017 11:54:32 AM EDT

[#27]

The longer you wait the longer it takes. The sooner you can submit before someone else the sooner you will get approved before someone else. Waiting a few months just to get approved in five months is not logical if you can submit now can get approved in 8 months.

I just don't get the logic of people sometimes. Like when a guy told me he would never want to makes millions of dollars because of all the taxes he would have to pay.

Posted: 7/19/2017 2:50:15 PM EDT

[#28]

Quote History

Quoted:

I'm thinking around 7 too, some people dont take into account that some find the new rules on CLEO an advantage

Not to mention it seems like everyone and their mom knows about the "ease" of NFA stuff now. Just 5-8 years ago it seemed like it was fairly quiet and seeing a silencer was SEMI rare

If silencer shop gets their kiosk thing widespread it will literally be "walk in and buy" like a firearm, with a wait, which in my opinion will do fairly well. As easy as the trust situation was I think people just never wanted to do it.

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Went down to the shop this morning and bought one. Fingerprinted, pictured, some signatures, in and out in 30 minutes.

Hoping for a nice Christmas present if you guys are right. Not that optimistic though.

Posted: 7/19/2017 3:03:24 PM EDT

[#29]

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Quoted:

Went down to the shop this morning and bought one. Fingerprinted, pictured, some signatures, in and out in 30 minutes.

Hoping for a nice Christmas present if you guys are right. Not that optimistic though.

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Exactly. And once that kiosk think becomes bigger the average Joe will go in and just add a silencer on top of their gun purchase. For anyone that plans on saying "people don't have a money tree", trust me, they're in there buying a toy already, when they realize for a couple hundred dollars more than can have this "Hollywood silencer" they will find a way to pay for it.

And if Silencershop offers a layaway program like CA (layaway, the American dream

), a silencer add-on to their gun purchase will become a household (gun enthusiast household) thing.

Posted: 7/19/2017 5:39:23 PM EDT

[#30]

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Quoted:

Exactly. And once that kiosk think becomes bigger the average Joe will go in and just add a silencer on top of their gun purchase. For anyone that plans on saying "people don't have a money tree", trust me, they're in there buying a toy already, when they realize for a couple hundred dollars more than can have this "Hollywood silencer" they will find a way to pay for it.

And if Silencershop offers a layaway program like CA (layaway, the American dream

), a silencer add-on to their gun purchase will become a household (gun enthusiast household) thing.

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Boy are there are going to be a lot of disappointed people when they realize their brand new suppressor they just bought is not a Hollywood silencer.

Posted: 7/19/2017 6:09:29 PM EDT

[#31]

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Boy are there are going to be a lot of disappointed people when they realize their brand new suppressor they just bought is not a Hollywood silencer.

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lol they will be, but I think store owners will be able to sell them like hotcakes now

Posted: 7/19/2017 7:09:39 PM EDT

[#32]

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lol they will be, but I think store owners will be able to sell them like hotcakes now

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Quoted:

Quoted:

Boy are there are going to be a lot of disappointed people when they realize their brand new suppressor they just bought is not a Hollywood silencer.

lol they will be, but I think store owners will be able to sell them like hotcakes now

Lol isn't that the truth. I can hear store owners now pushing them as Hollywood silencers

Posted: 7/19/2017 8:00:29 PM EDT

[#33]

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Quoted:
Boy are there are going to be a lot of disappointed people when they realize their brand new suppressor they just bought is not a Hollywood silencer.

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Like the guy that does Wound Channel? Lol.

Posted: 7/20/2017 2:00:04 AM EDT

[#34]

My only reservation on times speeding up is if the OT rules are some how changed. My latest paper Form 1 (pre-41F) was 362 days from pending to approved. It was approved on a Saturday. So as long as they keep the pace I am hoping to see my November pending suppressor in 3 months which would put it around a year as well.

Posted: 7/21/2017 9:34:17 AM EDT

[#35]

I had a Recce 7 & a Mask that the check was cashed on 3/17.

How much longer do you guys think I will have to wait with things winding down a little?

Posted: 7/21/2017 10:12:31 AM EDT

[#36]

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Quoted:
I had a Recce 7 & a Mask that the check was cashed on 3/17.

How much longer do you guys think I will have to wait with things winding down a little?

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I'd say 4-6 months. Individual form 4s are moving faster and it depends on whether they keep staffing levels constant through to their fiscal year end.

Posted: 7/21/2017 10:49:07 AM EDT

[#37]

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I'd say 4-6 months. Individual form 4s are moving faster and it depends on whether they keep staffing levels constant through to their fiscal year end.

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I would imagine Individual F4's will go up quite a bit (at least equal to trust) post 41f. It made filing as an individual a simple stop at the shop for 30 min

Posted: 7/21/2017 10:56:44 AM EDT

[#38]

Anybody have any insight on whether there is sufficient bandwidth to handle the influx of new background checks that need to be done or if that will be a new bottleneck in the process?

Posted: 7/22/2017 9:43:52 PM EDT

[#39]

Quote History

Quoted:
I had a Recce 7 & a Mask that the check was cashed on 3/17.

How much longer do you guys think I will have to wait with things winding down a little?

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I've been keeping track for the past 203 days.

The last count my figured give me is:
If Somebody Submits the Form(s) Today (July 22) They Might be APPROVED on or About June 15, 2018.

My Personal Estimation for the Can I bought in December says I might be Approved just in the for Thanksgiving: November 24, 2017. My Original estimate was August, maybe September.

Posted: 7/22/2017 9:50:59 PM EDT

[#40]

That's a lot more time than most are thinking.

Always a pessimist!

Posted: 7/22/2017 9:57:17 PM EDT

[#41]

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Kicking myself for not going ahead and buying something last fall. Now I'm sitting here wanting a mask or two. I can do 6 months if that's a realistic expectation

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I have a pending date of 25OCT2016 and I would be ecstatic to see come through soon.

Posted: 7/23/2017 1:23:14 AM EDT

[#42]

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Quoted:
I've been keeping track for the past 203 days. http://s6.postimg.org/d7c55vo0x/nfa_wait.gif The last count my figured give me is:
If Somebody Submits the Form(s) Today (July 22) They Might be APPROVED on or About June 15, 2018.

My Personal Estimation for the Can I bought in December says I might be Approved just in the for Thanksgiving: November 24, 2017. My Original estimate was August, maybe September.

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Just curious, have you looked at the trend graph on nfatracker.com? Approval time frames are constantly changing, I know you frequent the f4 approval thread but that doesn't tell us anything about how long future approvals will take.

If you just look to see what most of the big internet dealers have in stock compared to a year ago you would know that they are not selling near as many cans as what they did a year ago.

Posted: 7/23/2017 10:40:43 AM EDT

[#43]

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Just curious, have you looked at the trend graph on nfatracker.com? Approval time frames are constantly changing, I know you frequent the f4 approval thread but that doesn't tell us anything about how long future approvals will take.

If you just look to see what most of the big internet dealers have in stock compared to a year ago you would know that they are not selling near as many cans as what they did a year ago.

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Nothing tells your how long future approvals take, including the graph

Posted: 7/23/2017 11:05:50 AM EDT

[#44]

My dealer spoke to NFA branch about approval times and was told that because of 41f the FBI has been flooded with fingerprint cards. That may become a bottle neck for the future approvals.

Posted: 7/23/2017 11:20:49 AM EDT

[#45]

Quote History

Quoted:

Just curious, have you looked at the trend graph on nfatracker.com? Approval time frames are constantly changing, I know you frequent the f4 approval thread but that doesn't tell us anything about how long future approvals will take.

If you just look to see what most of the big internet dealers have in stock compared to a year ago you would know that they are not selling near as many cans as what they did a year ago.

View Quote

NFA tracker is also a 3 month average, as of today, checked cashed to approved is 304 days.

But, if you look at all the approvals over the last 30 days from Group Therapy and Post 41F, the average is 337 days and still climbing.

Posted: 7/23/2017 12:14:30 PM EDT

[#46]

Bullshit. Total bullshit we have to wait this long. Everyone should start writing their senators. People need to bitch.

The squeaky wheel gets the grease. How do you think all of the "give me free stuff" crowd got what they wanted?

Posted: 7/23/2017 12:34:20 PM EDT

[#47]

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My form 3s are taking 20-25 days right now. I have three form 4s, I sent for customers in January that I am still waiting for.

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My form 3 was submitted 7/11/17, it was approved on 7/22/2017.

For what that is worth.

Posted: 7/23/2017 2:24:11 PM EDT

[#48]

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Bullshit. Total bullshit we have to wait this long. Everyone should start writing their senators. People need to bitch.

The squeaky wheel gets the grease. How do you think all of the "give me free stuff" crowd got what they wanted?

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lolol they dont care, they cant even get the important things (that were said were going to get done) that should be easy, I don't see this getting better ever, and honestly I've dealt with it so long I don't really care though.

I am not anti "write your senator" but they have to laugh when they get a "we need more resources for our form 1s and 4s!" letter in the mail and kick it straight into the trash.

Posted: 7/23/2017 10:59:46 PM EDT

[#49]

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My form 3 was submitted 7/11/17, it was approved on 7/22/2017.

For what that is worth.

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Ridiculous. Mine has been over a month. Paper.

Posted: 7/24/2017 10:14:17 AM EDT

[#50]

My strategy is a form a month. Mostly Form 1s to SBR the guns Ive picked up over time with the occasional Form 4 thrown in. Once they start coming back, its like Christmas coming 12 months a year. Plus its easier to ear mark $200 per month from a financial perspective.

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Time estimate if you submitted today? (Page 2 of 5)

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