This is a work in progress and is something I have always done in the past for my own transfers but have had to upgrade the calculations due to the 41f/p spike of last year. Since I overhauled it... I figured I would share it with all of you. I do not claim to be a master mathematician and this represents my best shot and creating a future forecast based on the moving averages in the data I have pulled from NFA tracker.
Link for download
here
Instructions are written into the sheet. There are two variables you can play with which will affect data output (this is also explained in the spreadsheet). One is the sample size for past trends - bigger number averages over a longer period of time, short over shorter etc. The other is the future trend sample size - bigger number goes farther back in time to generate outcome and vice versa. NOTE ON PAST TREND... from the data wait times started dropping consistently after around August 1st after the 41f push was over. I would suggest not going back beyond that date... again this is all spelled out in the spreadsheet.
There are three tabs in the spreadsheet, you are only concerned with the tab called "Entry Sheet". If you can figure out my chicken wire and bubble gum logic on the other tabs... you probably deserve a medal.
I am going to try to update this weekly with new information from NFA tracker. If you have any questions, I will try to answer them the best that I can.
Below is an example of my information with some middle of the road past and future trend settings