This is a work in progress and is something I have always done in the past for my own transfers but have had to upgrade the calculations due to the 41f/p spike of last year.  Since I overhauled it... I figured I would share it with all of you.  I do not claim to be a master mathematician and this represents my best shot and creating a future forecast based on the moving averages in the data I have pulled from NFA tracker.

Link for download here

Instructions are written into the sheet.  There are two variables you can play with which will affect data output (this is also explained in the spreadsheet).  One is the sample size for past trends - bigger number averages over a longer period of time, short over shorter etc.  The other is the future trend sample size - bigger number goes farther back in time to generate outcome and vice versa.  NOTE ON PAST TREND... from the data wait times started dropping consistently after around August 1st after the 41f push was over.  I would suggest not going back beyond that date... again this is all spelled out in the spreadsheet.

There are three tabs in the spreadsheet, you are only concerned with the tab called "Entry Sheet".  If you can figure out my chicken wire and bubble gum logic on the other tabs... you probably deserve a medal.

I am going to try to update this weekly with new information from NFA tracker.  If you have any questions, I will try to answer them the best that I can.

Below is an example of my information with some middle of the road past and future trend settings

Very cool, thank you!

I like it.  I liked it even more when it told me my stamp would arrive on 12/31.

Have you thought about adding a drop down for individual vs trust?  It seems like there is a large gap between the two.  The decrease in sample size seems like it would be worth it for the increase in accuracy.  

That is a good suggestion and I had planned to do that in the coming weeks. There are a couple of the things I would like to change in the calculations also. I'll post when I have any updates made. Sounds like you and I are along the same timeline.   Thanks for the constructive feedback.

I am also going to break it down via form one, form four, and even between machine gun, suppressor or SBR.

So how is this different from NFA Tracker?

NFA tracker doesn't offer the wait time predict anymore. They just give you a general sense of how long it's taking... I thought maybe I could do a little better...maybe... plus as a bonus I like fiddling with spreadsheets.

According to folks covering the silencershop  bar code enhancements, the backlog was to be cleared in 2-3 months. This was stated in the first few weeks of August. 2 Months later - wonder if that backlog has been reduced at all? 1 Month to go to clear all the way up through August of 2017. Tick Tock.  If true that means I have more than 10+ stamps coming to me in the next 30-45 days, including 3 from silencershop. So I have all the reason in the world to hope it is true, but no reason at all to believe it.

Naysaying wasn't appreciated at the time. Folks were advised to come back and say I told you so when what was represented failed to come true. Somehow I doubt that will be appreciated either, I suspect folks just don't want to be contradicted at all.

Updated version live... only data has been updated... have been playing with a few more calculations bu none ready to show yet.

Cool. Lines up with what I thought - one stamp in December and one back in January. If I get them sooner I won't complain.