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Posted: 5/11/2003 5:00:31 PM EDT
OK we all know that if the AWB fails to pass the prices of pre bans fall? However, I have not heard any discussion on what that would do to prices of post ban ARs? Would anyone want a post ban AR if the original was again available?
Link Posted: 5/11/2003 5:02:19 PM EDT
POST-prebans? They become OLD, USED ARs...
Link Posted: 5/11/2003 5:13:23 PM EDT
a whole bunch of blind pins will be drilled out and there will be a demand spike for phantom and vortex flash suppressors.
Link Posted: 5/11/2003 6:37:27 PM EDT
As far as the price for post-bans, the industry prices will probly stay the same. Production and material costs are only minutely affected by "product" market demand. Retail is a different story. Esspecialy when you consider that you'r average AR purchaser is going to want a new product rather than a used one. There won't be much point in buying a pre-ban if you can legaly have all the features in a new product.
Link Posted: 5/11/2003 7:26:40 PM EDT
I think they will remain the same.
Link Posted: 5/11/2003 7:56:08 PM EDT
They plummet expotentially. Probably will cost as much as a regular AR. The real question is how much will post-bans be worth. lol.
Link Posted: 5/11/2003 8:14:04 PM EDT
They will still cost about the same to produce. If the ban sunsets and nothing is renewed on top of it. You'll be able to get a bayo lug, a "flash hider," and that telescoping stock too. Current pre-ban guns will be worth the same as a used post ban now, so some folks will lose out big time in that regard.
Link Posted: 5/11/2003 9:27:16 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 5/11/2003 9:28:04 PM EDT by pulpsmack]
Originally Posted By Trifecta3: They will still cost about the same to produce. If the ban sunsets and nothing is renewed on top of it. You'll be able to get a bayo lug, a "flash hider," and that telescoping stock too. Current pre-ban guns will be worth the same as a used post ban now, so some folks will lose out big time in that regard.
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As luck would have it my crystal ball fell of the mantle last week! I disagree about preban weapons. I think SOME will take a beating, but those who bought them at such high premiums won't be so quick to part with them for a fraction of what they paid, regardless of what the market dictates. Some of them are historic and inherently valuable regardless of the law. Postbans weapons kept all original might be something of a collector's oddity if in pristine condition, but that assumes much, including far-reaching legislation. What WILL go up is the price of Pre-ban configuration barrels & uppers, collapsable stocks, aftermarket flash hiders, and NEW magazines. uppers & telestocks will be in demand for those who wish to modify their already existing postbans and will be in demand for the construction of new rifles. since demand will far exceed supply, you may count on an increase in price to these items, if only temporarily. the same can be said for NEW mags and flash hiders. There will be a short term surge in demand for them which will justify an increase in the price. Unsold postban barrels, uppers, & BATF stocks will probably fall in price due to the lack of demand, and the value old USGI magazines in fair condition or lower will drop as well. This is my prediction at least.
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 2:47:10 AM EDT
If I remember correctly, before the AWB, new AR's where going for about $450 complete. Used for about $300-$350 in good condition. USGI mags could be found for $3-$8 at the bottom of gunshow junkboxes with rusty old reloading dies and used leather holsters. I doubt we'll ever see those prices again. I predict new AR prices will stay about the same, and the guns will simply go back to pre-ban configuration. Used prices will drop to a happy medium between pre-ban prices, and todays prices. I'm guessing around $450-$500 for a used AR in good condition. The price of new 20&30rnd magazines will probably go up a little at first, till demand reaches an equilibrium, then they'll probably settle around $15-$20ea. Used mags will loose their value, and be found in gunshow junk boxes again for $3-$8ea. I sure hope we get to find out if I'm right!
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 3:06:44 AM EDT
Preban SGW, Olympic, Essential Arms, etc ,... They become OLD and USED. Their date of manufacture becomes irrelevant. WHEN the "assault" weapons ban sunsets, ALL of it goes away: LEO markings, manufacturing restrictions, etc. SP-1s, Government Carbines, stay high priced. The name "AR-15" will never be engraved into the side of a receiver again due to the 89 ban-by-name....
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 4:22:27 AM EDT
If you take a worst case and a new bill passes with tighter restrictions you may see preban I and preban II firearms. In that case they may go up. I don't think this will happen but I will make several purchases in the next fourteen months. If it does not happen I will gladly join the line to get preban retrofit work done.
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 4:25:19 AM EDT
The Laws of Supply and Demand will again rule the market place. Old AR's where only a few were made will still bring a premium (if desired by collectors)although not as much of a premium. [b]The thing I like is the NEW AR's will have an equal opportunity to shine.[/b] Anyone who reads many of my posts knows I'm an ArmaLite guy. However, think of the B/M V Match Carbine with fluted barrel, flash suppressor and the telescoping stock of your choice !! Pretty neat huh ?? We'll again see new development in telescoping stocks - newer and better flash suppressors, etc.
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 5:36:12 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 5/12/2003 6:16:33 AM EDT by DallmannTodd]
First of all, let me say that as much as I want it to happen, I don't believe we will see a AWB sunset. Anyone who has observed the trend of guns laws in this country would be foolish to think that everything will just magically return to the way it was and the liberals will let us have our full rights back. Secondly, As nice as it will be to have our freedoms of restored the sunset will be bad economically for those us who already own AR's. Those of you who paid $1500 for a preban will not see that money again until the next AWB. With New ARs coming out with full features costing $750, that means you have twice as much money in an AR that is 10 years older. And those of you who bought a AR recently also will not get as much back from it. It will be WORTH what you paid, but most people would rather spend their money on a full feature AR instead. So, lets be realistic. IF it happens, All the ARs made before the sunset will see a decline in value.
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 5:42:11 AM EDT
Even if the AWB sunsets, what's to prevent some states from enacting their own AWB bans such as in California?
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 5:54:58 AM EDT
Originally Posted By DallmannTodd: First of all, let me say that as much as I want it to happen, I don't believe we will see a AWB sunset. Anyone who has observed the trend of guns laws in this country would be foolish to think that everything will just magically return to the way it was and the liberals will let us have our full rights back.
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The liberals will likely not have much say in the matter. Yes, the President said he would sign a renewal, but it has to pass both houses of Congress first. If we do our job, that will not happen. --Mike
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 6:10:02 AM EDT
Given the events from Columbine through the shooting last week, add in the DC Sniper's weapon of choice, and the General American Public's opinion of the 'evil black rifle', I dont see it happening. Furthermore, tell me one time in the history of American Firearms when gun owners were granted MORE rights, or once when stuff that was illegal is made legal. It just doesn't happen in our society. In fact, I am afraid that as the AWB sunsets a new, more restrictive bill will be entered into congress. You know that BanHandGunsNow.com is looking at the sunset as a chance to further their agenda, too. Even if the Ban does sunset, I think it will be either short lived or not a complete reinstatment of our rights as guns owners. But, again, I hope I am wrong.
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 6:22:07 AM EDT
Originally Posted By DallmannTodd: ... Anyone who has observed the trend of guns laws in this country would be foolish to think that everything will just magically return to the way it was ...
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... Hey! I see there are actually folks out there that have been around as long as myself. ... Stranger things have happened in American politics but I just don't see how that average uninformed American voter will see how "[i]More assault rifles on the streets[/i]" is a good thing. ... The [b]ONLY[/b] hope that it sunsets is by [b]your[/b] activism to educate the average American so that Boxer, Feinstien & Schumer don't sound so "reasonable" anymore.
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 6:25:30 AM EDT
I'm willing to lose value in my pre-ban if it means a return to more sensible gun laws. Alex
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 6:33:44 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 5/12/2003 6:40:24 AM EDT by sterling18]
Originally Posted By Heavyarmor: Even if the AWB sunsets, what's to prevent some states from enacting their own AWB bans such as in California?
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Absolutely nothing. NY has a state version of the AWB.
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 6:35:52 AM EDT
Furthermore, tell me one time in the history of American Firearms when gun owners were granted MORE rights, or once when stuff that was illegal is made legal.
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1986 FOPA - Eliminates registration of pistol ammo, allows ATF only one warrantless inspection per year, reimburses defendants who prove themselves innocent for court costs, allows FFLs to participate in gun shows, defines "engaged in the business of selling firearms" to deliberately exclude private sales. 1990-2000 - Shall issue concealed carry sweeps the nation. States like Texas that prohibited the practice entirely now mandate approval for anyone who qualifies. It will happen again in 2004 too as long as gunowners keep up the pressure and don't give up the fight as soon as the first shot is fired across our bow.
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 6:43:00 AM EDT
[b]IF[/b] the AWB sunsets I think prices will remain the same. However, for high demand items like collapsible stocks and "preban" barrels the price may jump up because every one and their brother will be after them. Sure most respectable companies will not do this but I'm sure will see the price gougers come out of the woodwork.
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 6:48:54 AM EDT
Originally Posted By DallmannTodd: Given the events from Columbine through the shooting last week, add in the DC Sniper's weapon of choice, and the General American Public's opinion of the 'evil black rifle', I dont see it happening. Furthermore, tell me one time in the history of American Firearms when gun owners were granted MORE rights, or once when stuff that was illegal is made legal. It just doesn't happen in our society. In fact, I am afraid that as the AWB sunsets a new, more restrictive bill will be entered into congress. You know that BanHandGunsNow.com is looking at the sunset as a chance to further their agenda, too. Even if the Ban does sunset, I think it will be either short lived or not a complete reinstatment of our rights as guns owners. But, again, I hope I am wrong.
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Most of the sheeple believe whatever CNN tells them. They'll think, based on CNN's intelligent reporting, that assault weapons will be banned forever and will go about their marry way. We know we have a tough fight and we know who we need to take our fight to. Let's let our Representatives and Senators know where we stand! While I'm not convinced the ban will sunset I am convinced we can make it happen if we fight hard enough.
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 6:51:27 AM EDT
Once the market has established a price, it will be unlikely the cost will come down. Now if the import ban goes away and AR15's can be manufactured in a banana republic by $1 a day workers, you might see a price drop.
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 7:51:47 AM EDT
Originally Posted By sterling18:
Originally Posted By Heavyarmor: Even if the AWB sunsets, what's to prevent some states from enacting their own AWB bans such as in California?
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Absolutely nothing. NY has a state version of the AWB.
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Yeah but Ill just keep a spare post-post-ban upper around for when I go to PA.
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 8:40:08 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Bartholomew_Roberts: 1986 FOPA - Eliminates registration of pistol ammo, allows ATF only one warrantless inspection per year, reimburses defendants who prove themselves innocent for court costs, allows FFLs to participate in gun shows, defines "engaged in the business of selling firearms" to deliberately exclude private sales.
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i know there was something about automatic weapons in there too.. ;)
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 8:47:57 AM EDT
Prohibition of alcohol? There is an example of somehting made illegal and then made legal at a later date? Experience we learned from that: Law abiders don't drink, and law breakers do. So lets tax 'em and make some money on it. Real world application: Law breakers will obtain guns regardless of Anti-2nd ammend laws, and law abiders will needlesly suffer. So lets lift the ban, tax law breakers (with their freedom) and let us nice folks have our arsenals again! I like simplification.
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 11:20:17 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Rockhound: Prohibition of alcohol? There is an example of somehting made illegal and then made legal at a later date?
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Very true...How ever I believe I said, "in the history of American Firearms". Also, please remember that Alcohol is portrayed in the media as a Good thing done by the normal average All-Americans. Whereas guns are portrayed as sinister and evil and shooting always leads to death. The media makes a huge difference in this country, because most people are too lazy or stupid to learn the facts and would rather be spoon fed what ever comes across CNN.
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 11:48:56 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 5/12/2003 11:50:25 AM EDT by jfrush]
Originally Posted By DallmannTodd: Furthermore, tell me one time in the history of American Firearms when gun owners were granted MORE rights, or once when stuff that was illegal is made legal. It just doesn't happen in our society.
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Wrong! Wrong! Wrong!! This myth is what causes a lot of us to throw up our hands and admit defeat whenever we are faced with any gun legeslation. Watch the graphic below. If a state is red that means it is illegal to carry a gun. If a state is blue, that means they HAVE to let you carry a gun if you meet their requirements. Watch how many states turn from red to blue. That means they have now made it legal to carry a gun and have granted you [b]MORE[/b] rights. We can win, Laws can be reversed! [img]http://jfrush.homeip.net/pics/rtc.gif[/img]
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 12:06:21 PM EDT
I hate to point this out, since I am CCW permit holder and am proud to be. But you are buying into the propaganda. Once, in this country you could own and carry any weapon without the use of a permit. Now, you need need a permit to carry only a reduced selection of firearms (i.e restrictions on fire rate, barrel length, caliber size, magazine capacity etc.) And you see this as a GRANTING OF FREEDOMS? True, over the past 15 years we have been given more rights, but over the past 225 of our countries history it has been a slow and steady decline in our freedoms as gun owners. But you are so used to getting beat up by the liberals that you thank them when they only punch you in the stomach! Disclaimer: The above illustrations are examples of trends in our countries history, and not a commentary on their usefulness. I am not ingorant, mind you. I have done the studies and do recogize the beneifts of a society to force permits in order to carry concealed in public. Nor am I an extremist to the point that I think ANYONE should be allowed to own and carry ANYTHING. A physcopath carrying a .75 caliber full auto short barreled machine gun with a 100 round magazine into an elementary school is NOT my idea of a secure nation.
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 12:19:36 PM EDT
Once, in this country you could own and carry any weapon without the use of a permit. Now, you need need a permit to carry only a reduced selection of firearms (i.e restrictions on fire rate, barrel length, caliber size, magazine capacity etc.) And you see this as a GRANTING OF FREEDOMS?
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As I recall, your question was "Furthermore, tell me one time in the history of American Firearms when gun owners were granted MORE rights, or once when stuff that was illegal is made legal." jfrush isn't "buying into the propaganda". He is answering your question. As a result, your criticisms that "you are so used to getting beat up by the liberals that you thank them when they only punch you in the stomach!" are both unfair and unconstructive.
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 12:27:45 PM EDT
Originally Posted By DallmannTodd: I hate to point this out, since I am CCW permit holder and am proud to be. But you are buying into the propaganda. Once, in this country you could own and carry any weapon without the use of a permit. Now, you need need a permit to carry only a reduced selection of firearms (i.e restrictions on fire rate, barrel length, caliber size, magazine capacity etc.) And you see this as a GRANTING OF FREEDOMS? True, over the past 15 years we have been given more rights, but over the past 225 of our countries history it has been a slow and steady decline in our freedoms as gun owners. But you are so used to getting beat up by the liberals that you thank them when they only punch you in the stomach!
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I was simply replying to your request! Let me refresh your memory..
Furthermore, tell me one time in the history of American Firearms when gun owners were granted MORE rights,
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All these states granted MORE rights than the people had before. They may not have rolled back the laws to grant ALL the rights people had but they were granted MORE rights than than before the carry permit laws changed.
or once when stuff that was illegal is made legal. It just doesn't happen in our society.
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It was illegal to carry guns in a lot of those states, now it is legal. Your statement was wrong. As several people have pointed out both firearm and non firearm related examples of rights being restored, and things that were illegal being made illegal. I am not "Buying into the propaganda". I fully understand that we have not regained ALL of the gun rights we have lost. But we have made some progress and more can be made if we fight. Your original statement implied that once a law is passed we might as well give up on it because it can never be reversed. If we buy into your "propaganda" we have truly lost the fight.
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 12:31:27 PM EDT
My point is that they DIDNT restore our freedoms, or make it as legal as it once was. Like I said, we used to be able to carry any weapon without a permit or fees. That right was never and will never be given back. We have the right to carry SOME things, but only after goign through the paperwork, taxes, and wait. So, getting back to the topic at hand... that is how I feel it will be with the AWB sunset. We will never have as many freedoms in rifle ownership as were once available, but if they grant us even part og our freedoms back we will all lick their feet like whipped little pupies. I am sorry if my bluntness on the issue is harsh for those who think that magically the liberals will let this sunset and never again attack our second ammendment freedoms in this area of ownership. I see that as a fantasy. But again, I hope I am wrong.
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 1:58:15 PM EDT
In an effort to lighten this thread up: You gentlemen are forgetting one very important reason for why the AWB will expire and no new bans or laws will be put into place...because I have a lot of money tied up in my two prebans! And just like my investments in the stock market I will lose everything! It's God's way of making sure I don't have any money. So, the ban will sunset and all my prebans will be worth a forth of what they were and everyone will be happy! [;D] Disclaimer: I really don't view my ARs as investments.
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 2:14:53 PM EDT
I am sorry if my bluntness on the issue is harsh for those who think that magically the liberals will let this sunset and never again attack our second ammendment freedoms in this area of ownership.
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I don't think it will happen magically. I think it will take a lot of hard work and letter-writing from a bunch of gun owners to make it happen; but that it will happen if we can motivate people to take advantage of the opportunity. As for being sorry, you don't need to apologize to me or anyone else for your opinion on what might happen; but I sure hope you aren't behaving like a whipped little puppy yourself by rolling onto your back and giving up without a fight. If you haven't yet, then sit down and write your legislators. If they are solidly anti-gun, write the President and the RNC (or write your anti-gun reps and encourage them to get really greedy if you feel devious). There is nothing shameful about being skeptical given the nature of politics; however there is a lot shameful in not even trying to participate in the system and then complaining about it (though I seriously doubt anyone on AR15.com fits that category).
My point is that they DIDNT restore our freedoms, or make it as legal as it once was. Like I said, we used to be able to carry any weapon without a permit or fees. That right was never and will never be given back.
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It may not be given back; but it can be earned back. Every right you have today wasn't given to you, it was paid for by other men who fought for it on the battlefield or the campaign trail. We can win these rights back too; but the first step in that is actually fighting for them and not just declaring it a lost cause.
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 2:20:16 PM EDT
Originally Posted By M4arc: In an effort to lighten this thread up: You gentlemen are forgetting one very important reason for why the AWB will expire and no new bans or laws will be put into place...because I have a lot of money tied up in my two prebans! And just like my investments in the stock market I will lose everything! It's God's way of making sure I don't have any money. So, the ban will sunset and all my prebans will be worth a forth of what they were and everyone will be happy! [;D] Disclaimer: I really don't view my ARs as investments.
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NO I DIDN"T FORGET THIS REASON!!! I bought a pre-ban about 2 months ago and given my track record for investing it is a slam dunk that the AWB will sunset. Most people thought I was joking when I told them this so I started using facts and recent trends in politics to explain my confidence that the AWB will die. Now you know the rrrrest of the story! [:D]
Link Posted: 5/12/2003 2:23:00 PM EDT
Originally Posted By Bartholomew_Roberts:
I am sorry if my bluntness on the issue is harsh for those who think that magically the liberals will let this sunset and never again attack our second ammendment freedoms in this area of ownership.
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I don't think it will happen magically. I think it will take a lot of hard work and letter-writing from a bunch of gun owners to make it happen; but that it will happen if we can motivate people to take advantage of the opportunity. As for being sorry, you don't need to apologize to me or anyone else for your opinion on what might happen; but I sure hope you aren't behaving like a whipped little puppy yourself by rolling onto your back and giving up without a fight. If you haven't yet, then sit down and write your legislators. If they are solidly anti-gun, write the President and the RNC (or write your anti-gun reps and encourage them to get really greedy if you feel devious). There is nothing shameful about being skeptical given the nature of politics; however there is a lot shameful in not even trying to participate in the system and then complaining about it (though I seriously doubt anyone on AR15.com fits that category).
My point is that they DIDNT restore our freedoms, or make it as legal as it once was. Like I said, we used to be able to carry any weapon without a permit or fees. That right was never and will never be given back.
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It may not be given back; but it can be earned back. Every right you have today wasn't given to you, it was paid for by other men who fought for it on the battlefield or the campaign trail. We can win these rights back too; but the first step in that is actually fighting for them and not just declaring it a lost cause.
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D*mn that was a good post, couldn't have said it better!
Link Posted: 5/13/2003 4:49:05 AM EDT
So you are saying that us loosing some of our gun rights is a victory for us because we didn't loose them ALL? And you have the audacity to say I am the one giving up, because I am just as outraged at the complacency of pro-gunners as I am at the lunacy of the antis? I just don't like the idea of bargining for my second ammendment rights. By your logic if we were given the right to buy new 30-round mags, but had to file for a permit before each one we purchase, it would be a victory. Afterall, that is what happened with right to carry, and you claim it is the biggest victory in the history of pro-firearms ownership. We are headed on a downhill fast on gun ownership in this country and you guys rejoice when we slow the liberals progress, instead of fighting to have full rights reinstated. 100 years ago you could carry ANY gun in ANY state WITHOUT a permit, and now you think it is a huge granting of freedom to be able to carry SOME guns in SOME states only AFTER getting a permit. Try to step outside of your box and think big picture.
Link Posted: 5/13/2003 5:59:31 AM EDT
So you are saying that us loosing some of our gun rights is a victory for us because we didn't loose them ALL?
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No, that isn't what I am saying. Please point to the part of my post that you think can be remotely interpreted that way. What I am saying is that we can win our gun rights back and just because we don't automatically revert back to 1783 in a single fight doesn't mean "That right was never and will never be given back."
100 years ago you could carry ANY gun in ANY state WITHOUT a permit, and now you think it is a huge granting of freedom to be able to carry SOME guns in SOME states only AFTER getting a permit.
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Among other things, that is provably false. Most states prohibited concealed carry even in 1903, including the otherwise gun-friendly state of Texas.
Afterall, that is what happened with right to carry, and you claim it is the biggest victory in the history of pro-firearms ownership.
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Really? Please point to the post that identifies right-to-carry as "the biggest victory in the history of pro-firearms ownership". As I recall (and as the thread here shows), nobody ever said that. They just pointed out that rights can be regained and things that were illegal can be made legal.
Link Posted: 5/13/2003 6:35:24 AM EDT
Afterall, that is what happened with right to carry, and you claim it is the biggest victory in the history of pro-firearms ownership.
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Really? Please point to the post that identifies right-to-carry as "the biggest victory in the history of pro-firearms ownership". As I recall (and as the thread here shows), nobody ever said that. They just pointed out that rights can be regained and things that were illegal can be made legal.
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Well, seeing that it is the only one sited I believe that that means it is either the ONLY one or just the most prominent.
Link Posted: 5/13/2003 6:46:42 AM EDT
Let me just end by saying That I truely do hope that you are right. I hope that the american people forget about the Cleveland Shootinga, Columbine Shootings, DC Sniper, and LA shootings and ignore the constant lies of the Liberal Media about the AWB and its benefits and convince the President to not sign on for a renewel. I would gladly accept any loss in value that comes from that happening. I support the NRA, I write my senators, congressmen, lobbies, and other representives, and hope that my efforts are not in vain. Hopefully with the right amount of work will be be able to own short barreled rifles and shot guns in addition to HiCaps, Collapsable stocks and bayonet lugs. I guess this is a useless arguement since time will tell. But, in the mean time, I am buying PreBans and HiCaps at the higher prices. I guess if it sunsets we all win, and if it doesn't (or gets worse), I will not loose as much as many.
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