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Posted: 11/14/2001 3:45:33 PM EDT
Do you think the Taliban have it in them to make a last ditch banzai offensive like the Battle of the Bulge or the Tet Offensive? If they can, how long till they try it? BTW how do you start a poll?
Link Posted: 11/14/2001 3:47:50 PM EDT
Odds...less than 10%. A few scattered bands may cause some trouble, but nothing along the lines of an organized offensive with any chance of retaking the cities.
Link Posted: 11/14/2001 3:55:20 PM EDT
News was just saying that our guys are actively and widely engaging the Taliban now. If they say it now, either it's starting to fizzle down & we are just reporting the fights or our guys are doing some heavy fighting now instead of just recon and small strikes.
Link Posted: 11/14/2001 3:56:24 PM EDT
Link Posted: 11/14/2001 3:59:21 PM EDT
less than 2%, some will go to other countries that offer haven, (chad, somilia, iraq, etc) the rest will head to the mtns and do hit and run for a very long time.
Link Posted: 11/14/2001 4:03:06 PM EDT
I give it a next to nil chance. Most of the Taliban figured they were too close to meeting Allah, so now is a godo time to bug out. Funny how they talked so much smack, got their asses handed to them and now they are running like cowards. Didn't Omar Whatshisnuts say the Taliban would fight to the last man?
Link Posted: 11/14/2001 4:09:25 PM EDT
I give them 0% of going over to the offense in Afghanistan.....they'd be pounded into dust by our air power and they know it. Thats not how they work anyway....they will infiltrate out of Afghanistan and then pop up inside of other countries to cause trouble. Look for increased attacks inside of the USA also. Yeah, we'll kill the stupid ones who try to stand and fight, but most of them will just hide and wait for a chance later on to get us back in some way.
Link Posted: 11/14/2001 4:15:48 PM EDT
Forget the Taliban, the guys we have to worry about are Bin Laden and the 'Afghan Arabs'. They lost a lot of face, as well as hides...I would expect they would be looking for 'cred' from their fellow travelers, I fear they'll be looking here...I hope I'm wrong
Link Posted: 11/14/2001 4:18:56 PM EDT
Link Posted: 11/14/2001 4:25:49 PM EDT
well...knowing a little history on the muhajidan, id say yes...remember that the soviets seized the main Afghani cities in 2 days...and spent 10 years still fighting the muhajidan in the mountains, granted the hardest place to fight is now occupied by the northern alliance (united front)which was the Panjshir valley. the muhajidan typically would let the Russians take the valley,,,and flee to the hills...then they would wait for an opportunity to ambush convoys...or attack the smallest outpost they could find...the way they are fleeing the cities without a fight is the MO of the taliban...id say there is a good chance they will fight..they are waiting for the right opportunity...lets hope we don't get lax and give it to them...
Link Posted: 11/14/2001 4:33:05 PM EDT
Link Posted: 11/14/2001 4:54:12 PM EDT
im not syaing they would win this war raf...the question was.."Do you think the Taliban have it in them to make a last ditch banzai offensive like the Battle of the Bulge or the Tet Offensive?" ...and i replied the way i did based on historical fighting strategy OF the muhajidan...do they have popular support...no...do they have a way to get supplies for a long fight..probably not..but they do haves arms..ammunition...and dont think for a second that every taliban soldier and al queda fighter will desert...i will be suprised if they just roll over and not try anything...we will all just have to wait and see...
Link Posted: 11/14/2001 5:04:44 PM EDT
Link Posted: 11/14/2001 5:06:42 PM EDT
Al Quaeda is fighting a war on many fronts: Chechnya, Egypt, Kossovo, Kashmir, the Philippines, and others. They might decide to shift their focus. And the Taliban might be planning to save their forces until there are more Western troops on the ground. Then they can stir up trouble to create another "Blackhawk Down" situation for the West.
Link Posted: 11/14/2001 5:09:42 PM EDT
Originally Posted By EX11B: well...knowing a little history on the muhajidan, id say yes...remember that the soviets seized the main Afghani cities in 2 days...and spent 10 years still fighting the muhajidan in the mountains, granted the hardest place to fight is now occupied by the northern alliance (united front)which was the Panjshir valley. the muhajidan typically would let the Russians take the valley,,,and flee to the hills...then they would wait for an opportunity to ambush convoys...or attack the smallest outpost they could find...the way they are fleeing the cities without a fight is the MO of the taliban...id say there is a good chance they will fight..they are waiting for the right opportunity...lets hope we don't get lax and give it to them...
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Of course where your whole theory falls apart is in assuming that Taliban=mujahadeen. They don't. Actually, the Northern Alliance and Pashtun are the Afghan representatives of the surviving Mujahadeen. The Taliban leaders are more Arabs and Pakistanis than Afghans.
Link Posted: 11/14/2001 5:09:45 PM EDT
Link Posted: 11/14/2001 6:44:12 PM EDT
I doubt they'll mount a conventional offensive. I think they know they can never take us conventionally, they want the U.S. there playing policemen so they can fight gorrila style.
Link Posted: 11/14/2001 6:51:22 PM EDT
Of course where your whole theory falls apart is in assuming that Taliban=mujahadeen. They don't. Actually, the Northern Alliance and Pashtun are the Afghan representatives of the surviving Mujahadeen. The Taliban leaders are more Arabs and Pakistanis than Afghans. I find fault with this statement...Although the members of the current northern alliance were certainly members of the muj. fighting the russians, members of al quida and like muslim extremest fighting groups were certainly part of the muj. fightring the russians as well. The stories you hear about how, "the united states armed and trained OBL to fight the russians" well, part of that is true...we had a common enemy, the soviets; for us it was b/c they were communist, for them it was b/c they had invaded their country. the muslim world as a whole saw the soviets as an enemy, and thus fundamentalists from all over the middle east went to afghanistan to fight the soviets; much like fundamentalists from all over the middle east have been recruited by al quida; the leaders of which were the same men who faught the soviets during the soviet/afghan wars of the late 80's.....but you were right on nearly all points; i just wanted to clarify [;)]
Link Posted: 11/14/2001 6:58:23 PM EDT
What would you do to avoid certain torture & execution?
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