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Posted: 3/27/2006 1:23:40 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/27/2006 1:34:26 PM EDT by AROptics]
What would the Rand Corp. ( a "think tank") predict?

What do you predict?
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 1:26:09 PM EDT
Middle of the ocean.
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 1:27:38 PM EDT
Non-test? As in, used in an act of aggression by a nation or terrorist group?

I'm no expert, but a large city in an industrialized, high-wealth nation would be my prediction. I can't get more specific than that.
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 1:28:48 PM EDT
Just beneath my ass following my next visit to Taco Bell.
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 1:29:24 PM EDT
The sun is my answer.
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 1:30:39 PM EDT

Originally Posted By gaspain:
Middle of the ocean.



you thinking one of the old russian nuke boats will go boom? or are you implying an attack on one of our CVN groups?
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 1:33:04 PM EDT
I think any large city with large ports are at risk. The easiest way to get nuclear bombs into our country is through the ports, IMO.

HH
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 1:33:38 PM EDT
Strait of Hormuz.
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 1:34:37 PM EDT

Originally Posted By gaspain:
Middle of the ocean.



What would happen if you set one off 500 feet below the surface?
I'm thinking a pretty big wave.
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 1:34:52 PM EDT
Somewhere in Europe.
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 1:35:49 PM EDT
A place calle d"ground zero". I'm not sure why but this place seems pretty popular.
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 1:37:45 PM EDT
Iran
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 1:37:48 PM EDT
Tel-Aviv
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 1:38:24 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/27/2006 1:39:42 PM EDT by IAMLEGEND]

Originally Posted By mjohn3006:

Originally Posted By gaspain:
Middle of the ocean.



What would happen if you set one off 500 feet below the surface?
I'm thinking a pretty big wave.



I think there is a subsurface detonation in this video. (Actually I think I remember a few)

And it has music by Canadian metal band Strapping Young Lad. w00t! Rock out!

linkeroo
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 1:39:01 PM EDT
somewhere in pakistan, launched by india..

probably most likely scenario....

1. musharrif is assassinated.
2. militants take control of pakistan
3. hostilities insue, probably involving cashmier
4. nuclear attack from militants appears immenent
5. india strikes first.
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 1:41:29 PM EDT
NYC
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 1:46:31 PM EDT
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 1:48:41 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/27/2006 1:49:03 PM EDT by jkstexas2001]

Originally Posted By vito113:

Originally Posted By mjohn3006:

Originally Posted By gaspain:
Middle of the ocean.



What would happen if you set one off 500 feet below the surface?
I'm thinking a pretty big wave.



At 500' most of the blast will be tamped… small effect at the surface…



They recently did one of those in the Atlantic. It showed up on a few graphs, and that's it.
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 1:50:05 PM EDT
Savannah, GA
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 1:51:45 PM EDT
kashmir
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 1:51:47 PM EDT
Hollywood.

I can dream, can't I?
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 1:54:32 PM EDT
www.ken-welch.com/


At this time the device remains hidden on board the ship that brought it, a freighter docked in or near the port of Texas City, about thirty minutes south of Houston, and only ten miles from the island city of Galveston.
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 1:57:47 PM EDT
Good question, my predictions would be:
1. Jerusalem/Tel Aviv
2. Tehran
3. New Delhi
4. Islamabad
5. Taiwan
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 1:59:12 PM EDT

Originally Posted By JeromeAvers:
www.ken-welch.com/


At this time the device remains hidden on board the ship that brought it, a freighter docked in or near the port of Texas City, about thirty minutes south of Houston, and only ten miles from the island city of Galveston.





I haven't "vetted" this guy yet. What are his creds?
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 2:01:10 PM EDT

Originally Posted By st0newall:
somewhere in pakistan, launched by india..

probably most likely scenario....

1. musharrif is assassinated.
2. militants take control of pakistan
3. hostilities insue, probably involving cashmier
4. nuclear attack from militants appears immenent
5. india strikes first.



Yeah...I was thinking terrorist. Your scenario is pretty clearly most likely as far as an exchange between countries.
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 2:03:02 PM EDT

Originally Posted By macman37:

Originally Posted By JeromeAvers:
www.ken-welch.com/


At this time the device remains hidden on board the ship that brought it, a freighter docked in or near the port of Texas City, about thirty minutes south of Houston, and only ten miles from the island city of Galveston.





I haven't "vetted" this guy yet. What are his creds?



Just by reading a few lines of his website.....I would say asshat of the highest order.
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 2:05:43 PM EDT

Originally Posted By JIMBEAM:
Savannah, GA



Why Savannah? Hell I live there!
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 2:10:21 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/27/2006 2:18:48 PM EDT by gardenWeasel]

Originally Posted By JeromeAvers:
www.ken-welch.com/


At this time the device remains hidden on board the ship that brought it, a freighter docked in or near the port of Texas City, about thirty minutes south of Houston, and only ten miles from the island city of Galveston.




It's true. Condoleeza Rice went all the way to Switzerland just so she could deliver the following reversed speech message:

"A NUKE, HID IN THE SHIP"
"THE TERRORIST PAID THE TAB"
"CALL ME 'BOUT THE NUKE"
"ITS IN A FREIGHTER."


Link Posted: 3/27/2006 2:22:02 PM EDT

Originally Posted By JeromeAvers:
www.ken-welch.com/


At this time the device remains hidden on board the ship that brought it, a freighter docked in or near the port of Texas City, about thirty minutes south of Houston, and only ten miles from the island city of Galveston.



lol, i was enthralled until the reversed speech stuff. However, Texas ports in that area would be an ideal place to hit for maximum trickle down damage.
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 2:23:48 PM EDT

Originally Posted By gardenWeasel:

Originally Posted By JeromeAvers:
www.ken-welch.com/


At this time the device remains hidden on board the ship that brought it, a freighter docked in or near the port of Texas City, about thirty minutes south of Houston, and only ten miles from the island city of Galveston.




It's true. Condoleeza Rice went all the way to Switzerland just so she could deliver the following reversed speech message:

"A NUKE, HID IN THE SHIP"
"THE TERRORIST PAID THE TAB"
"CALL ME 'BOUT THE NUKE"
"ITS IN A FREIGHTER."





OMG I just listened to thoes and about pissed my pants. Funny stuff.
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 2:24:00 PM EDT

Originally Posted By tekloid:

Originally Posted By JeromeAvers:
www.ken-welch.com/


At this time the device remains hidden on board the ship that brought it, a freighter docked in or near the port of Texas City, about thirty minutes south of Houston, and only ten miles from the island city of Galveston.



lol, i was enthralled until the reversed speech stuff. However, Texas ports in that area would be an ideal place to hit for maximum trickle down damage.



..and if you look at the map, we live in Pearland.

HH
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 2:24:22 PM EDT

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:
Good question, my predictions would be:
1. Jerusalem/Tel Aviv
2. Tehran
3. New Delhi
4. Islamabad
5. Taiwan



If you are a Christian you can rule out the first choice. According to the Bible Jerusalem will not get nuked. That will probably also rule out tel aviv.

Link Posted: 3/27/2006 2:30:46 PM EDT

Originally Posted By danonly:

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:
Good question, my predictions would be:
1. Jerusalem/Tel Aviv
2. Tehran
3. New Delhi
4. Islamabad
5. Taiwan



If you are a Christian you can rule out the first choice. According to the Bible Jerusalem will not get nuked. That will probably also rule out tel aviv.




There is a section in Isaiah that strongly suggests Damascus, Syria, is not so fortunate, however.
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 2:35:05 PM EDT
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 2:36:20 PM EDT
Maybe in the upper atmosphere.
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 2:39:17 PM EDT
from orbit, duh
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 2:46:47 PM EDT

Originally Posted By krpind:

Originally Posted By st0newall:
somewhere in pakistan, launched by india..

probably most likely scenario....

1. musharrif is assassinated.
2. militants take control of pakistan
3. hostilities insue, probably involving cashmier
4. nuclear attack from militants appears immenent
5. india strikes first.



Yeah...I was thinking terrorist. Your scenario is pretty clearly most likely as far as an exchange between countries.



while everyone is focused on terrorists, i figure that a true nuke attack is not likely in the US from terrorist due to all the hurdles/logistics. just me belief. however with india/pakistan you have two nuclear armed countries that have warred against each other fairly recently and who continue to be hostile against each other and have a bone of contention (cashmier) which they actually fight over via proxies today. motive, ability, opportunity .. they all exist today with these two, nuclear armed terrorism is the boggieman that everyone focuses on. i think a dirty bomb is a much more like situation with terrorists.
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 3:08:23 PM EDT
OK that Ken Welch thing was WACK.
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 3:13:12 PM EDT
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 3:14:21 PM EDT

Originally Posted By JeromeAvers:
www.ken-welch.com/


At this time the device remains hidden on board the ship that brought it, a freighter docked in or near the port of Texas City, about thirty minutes south of Houston, and only ten miles from the island city of Galveston.




There are no freighters at the Port of Texas City. That port is a privately owned operation and handles only chemical and oil tankers, not general cargo ships.
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 3:25:48 PM EDT
somewhere around Pakistan
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 3:40:22 PM EDT

Originally Posted By John Parker:

Originally Posted By JIMBEAM:
Savannah, GA



Why Savannah? Hell I live there!



There were some nukes lost off of the coast there ? Or was that somewhere else ?
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 3:48:54 PM EDT
I'm gonna have to go with the sun or ground zero as well
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 3:53:46 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/27/2006 3:54:27 PM EDT by DS11M]

Originally Posted By JeromeAvers:
www.ken-welch.com/


At this time the device remains hidden on board the ship that brought it, a freighter docked in or near the port of Texas City, about thirty minutes south of Houston, and only ten miles from the island city of Galveston.



Link Posted: 3/27/2006 3:55:36 PM EDT
Mecca
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 4:00:07 PM EDT
"A nyuch hiddina shyip," yeah, that's proof enough for me!
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 4:31:35 PM EDT
Tel Aviv

Washington DC

New York City

Philadelphia

Norfolk
San Diego

Hopefully followed closely by Qom, Mecca, Medina, Tehran, and Damascus.

Now...if a Democrap is in the White House, I think we can count on he/she sending the FBI to try and "bring the perpetrators to justice" rather than doing something so evil as nuking another major population center...
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 4:43:09 PM EDT
Hollywood


Well, I can hope...


Steve
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 4:46:45 PM EDT
... the Bushehr Nuclear Reactor
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 4:49:40 PM EDT

Originally Posted By IAMLEGEND:
Maybe in the upper atmosphere.


Lights Out...
Link Posted: 3/27/2006 4:49:40 PM EDT

Originally Posted By mjohn3006:

Originally Posted By gaspain:
Middle of the ocean.



What would happen if you set one off 500 feet below the surface?
I'm thinking a pretty big wave.



Depends on the depth of the water, the bottom makeup, the distance from shore and the yield of the weapon. 500' is pretty deep.

The Crossroads Series of tests run in 1946 first explored this phenomenon. In the second test, designated "Baker", a Mk III (Nagasaki type) Fat Man war reserve weapon with a yield of approximately 20ktons of TNT was suspended beneath an LST at a depth of 90' in Bikini atoll lagoon. IIRC, the bottom wasn't much deeper.

Around the bomb at various ranges, and target angles were a fleet of ships, from major aircraft carriers (USS Saratoga) to submarines, destroyers and auxiliaries.

When the bomb went off the effects were nothing short of devastating to most of the ships. There is a famous movie of the shot and here it is:

Baker Test

If you look very carefully, you might be able to see a very large ship, generally believed to be Saratoga, standing on her stern in the huge water column. She is now a diving attraction in the now radiation-safe lagoon.
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