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Posted: 3/13/2006 12:19:47 PM EDT
"ABC News has obtained a mathematical projection prepared by federal scientists based on an initial outbreak on an East Coast chicken farm in which humans are infected. Within three months, with no vaccine, almost half of the country would have the flu."
abcnews.go.com/GMA/print?id=1716820

Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:21:06 PM EDT
Of course it's coming. It's just a matter of when.

Buy yourself six months' worth of everything you consume and get ready for it.
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:22:26 PM EDT

Originally Posted By macman37:
Of course it's coming. It's just a matter of when.

Buy yourself six months' worth of everything you consume and get ready for it.



Remember , the government instructs all people to store it under their beds .
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:23:29 PM EDT

I'll be sure to tell all my friends who are birds.

Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:24:10 PM EDT

Originally Posted By slaughter:

Originally Posted By macman37:
Of course it's coming. It's just a matter of when.

Buy yourself six months' worth of everything you consume and get ready for it.



Remember , the government instructs all people to store it under their beds .



ummmmm riiiiiight. What does that mean?
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:24:34 PM EDT
I wonder what their projections for death rates were! HIgh as shit probably,
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:25:26 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Colltt:
"ABC News has obtained a mathematical projection prepared by federal scientists based on an initial outbreak on an East Coast chicken farm in which humans are infected. Within three months, with no vaccine, almost half of the country would have the flu."
abcnews.go.com/GMA/print?id=1716820




Hype out the wazoo. 3/4 of the 50% won't even know they got it. No big deal if your healthy to begin with. If you got the aids or cancer your screwed.
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:25:34 PM EDT

Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
I'll be sure to tell all my friends who are birds.




Come on, man. I know you're well read/well-informed enough to know about the 1918 Spanish Influenza and how real this is.
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:26:08 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Sachse:

Originally Posted By Colltt:
"ABC News has obtained a mathematical projection prepared by federal scientists based on an initial outbreak on an East Coast chicken farm in which humans are infected. Within three months, with no vaccine, almost half of the country would have the flu."
abcnews.go.com/GMA/print?id=1716820




Hype out the wazoo. 3/4 of the 50% won't even know they got it. No big deal if your healthy to begin with. If you got the aids or cancer your screwed.



Just like in 1918?
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:27:52 PM EDT
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:28:29 PM EDT

Originally Posted By macman37:

Originally Posted By slaughter:

Originally Posted By macman37:
Of course it's coming. It's just a matter of when.

Buy yourself six months' worth of everything you consume and get ready for it.



Remember , the government instructs all people to store it under their beds .



ummmmm riiiiiight. What does that mean?



The man who gave the warning told all the people to store tuna and powdered milk , under their beds per the article. Makes me wonder if it was for real or some kind of joke report ?
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:30:21 PM EDT

Originally Posted By IAMLEGEND:

Originally Posted By Sachse:

Originally Posted By Colltt:
"ABC News has obtained a mathematical projection prepared by federal scientists based on an initial outbreak on an East Coast chicken farm in which humans are infected. Within three months, with no vaccine, almost half of the country would have the flu."
abcnews.go.com/GMA/print?id=1716820




Hype out the wazoo. 3/4 of the 50% won't even know they got it. No big deal if your healthy to begin with. If you got the aids or cancer your screwed.



Just like in 1918?



No becuse people wont be dying off in the first world from seconday infections from bacteria. There this thing called antibotics that was not around in 1918. Plus sanitary conditions are alot better than they were in 1918 so there will be alot less secondory infections to begin with.
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:32:18 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Sachse:

Originally Posted By IAMLEGEND:

Originally Posted By Sachse:

Originally Posted By Colltt:
"ABC News has obtained a mathematical projection prepared by federal scientists based on an initial outbreak on an East Coast chicken farm in which humans are infected. Within three months, with no vaccine, almost half of the country would have the flu."
abcnews.go.com/GMA/print?id=1716820




Hype out the wazoo. 3/4 of the 50% won't even know they got it. No big deal if your healthy to begin with. If you got the aids or cancer your screwed.



Just like in 1918?



No becuse people wont be dying off in the first world from seconday infections from bacteria. There this thing called antibotics that was not around in 1918. Plus sanitary conditions are alot better than they were in 1918 so there will be alot less secondory infections to begin with.



You're not involved with medicine in any capacity, are you?
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:32:39 PM EDT

ABC News has obtained a mathematical projection prepared by federal scientists based on an initial outbreak on an East Coast chicken farm in which humans are infected. Within three months, with no vaccine, almost half of the country would have the flu.


This is fundamentally wrong, as the bird flu in current form is not transmitted via human to human contact like other transmittable diseases are, for example. IF the mutations that they think MIGHT occur do take place THEN perhaps the prediction has some merits, but as things exist TODAY, this quote above is flawed....
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:33:07 PM EDT
If its as bad as it could be alot of health care workers will not be showing up to work.
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:36:42 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/13/2006 12:38:51 PM EDT by DK-Prof]

Originally Posted By IAMLEGEND:

Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
I'll be sure to tell all my friends who are birds.




Come on, man. I know you're well read/well-informed enough to know about the 1918 Spanish Influenza and how real this is.




My point is that projections such as these are purely based on a HUGE assumption that it will mutate and be able to transmit human-to-human, AND a second assumption that it will be reasonably virulent too.

Obviously, at some point a killer flu IS going to take a huge chunk out of mankind, because of our dense population concentrations, urban populations that are no longer exposed to farm animals, and global interconnectedness and travel. Oh yeah - a flu or other virus, like originating in a different species is totally going to kick our ass, someday. Definitely. I agree with that.

It's the SOMEDAY part that I am pointing out. Other the media hysteria, I don't know that there's any real evidence that this particular strain of bird flu will be able to make the "jump" to a human-to-human virus, any more than the last 20 bird flus have.

Next year, the big story might be how plague is going to mutate and kill us all - you do know that a handful of people get the plague every year in the U.S. right? If this bird flu thing doesn't pan out for awesome rating, then it'll be something else they 24-hour news cycle tries to get us worked up about next time.

By the way, did anyone notice the mention of the 83-84 outbreak of H5N2 HPAI bird flu in the U.S., where they had to kill millions and millions of birds? How come nobody was creating dire predictions of massive human infections and deaths at that time? My answer is: you didn't have 4 cable news networks, vying for ratings and needing to fill 24 hours with news.

Hell, there was an outbreak of bird flu in 2004 in the United States, and nobody freaked out. You know why? My guess is because they were blowing bullshit up our asses about West Nile virus.


At this point, it's all hypothetical supposition and assumptions, nothing more. That's why I'm not overly worried about it for now.

Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:39:37 PM EDT

Originally Posted By DK-Prof:

Originally Posted By IAMLEGEND:

Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
I'll be sure to tell all my friends who are birds.




Come on, man. I know you're well read/well-informed enough to know about the 1918 Spanish Influenza and how real this is.




My point is that projections such as these are purely based on a HUGE assumption that it will mutate and be able to transmit human-to-human, AND a second assumption that it will be reasonably virulent too.

Obviously, at some point a killer flu IS going to take a huge chunk out of mankind, because of our dense population concentrations, urban populations that are no longer exposed to farm animals, and global interconnectedness and travel. Oh yeah - a flu or other virus, like originating in a different species is totally going to kick our ass, someday. Definitely. I agree with that.

It's the SOMEDAY part that I am pointing out. Other the media hysteria, I don't know that there's any real evidence that this particular strain of bird flu will be able to make the "jump" to a human-to-human virus, any more than the last 20 bird flus have.

Next year, the big story might be how plague is going to mutate and kill us all - you do know that a handful of people get the plague every year in the U.S. right? If this bird flu thing doesn't pan out for awesome rating, then it'll be something else they 24-hour news cycle tries to get us worked up about next time.

By the way, did anyone notice the mention of the 83-84 outbreak of H5N2 HPAI bird flu in the U.S., where they had to kill millions and millions of birds? How come nobody was creating dire predictions of massive human infections and deaths at that time? My answer is: you didn't have 4 cable news networks, vying for ratings and needing to fill 24 hours with news.

Hell, there was an outbreak of bird flu in 2004 in the United States, and nobody freaked out. You know why? My guess is because they were blowing bullshit up our asses about West Nile virus.


At this point, it's all hypothetical supposition and assumptions, nothing more. That's why I'm not overly worried about it for now.




I agree Dk, what you said, about says it
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:39:44 PM EDT
For all who poo-poo something of this NATIONAL magnitude, I have one thing to say.....................................New Orleans
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:41:19 PM EDT

Originally Posted By DK-Prof:

Originally Posted By IAMLEGEND:

Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
I'll be sure to tell all my friends who are birds.




Come on, man. I know you're well read/well-informed enough to know about the 1918 Spanish Influenza and how real this is.




My point is that projections such as these are purely based on a HUGE assumption that it will mutate and be able to transmit human-to-human, AND a second assumption that it will be reasonably virulent too.

Obviously, at some point a killer flu IS going to take a huge chunk out of mankind, because of our dense population concentrations, urban populations that are no longer exposed to farm animals, and global interconnectedness and travel. Oh yeah - a flu or other virus, like originating in a different species is totally going to kick our ass, someday. Definitely. I agree with that.

It's the SOMEDAY part that I am pointing out. Other the media hysteria, I don't know that there's any real evidence that this particular strain of bird flu will be able to make the "jump" to a human-to-human virus, any more than the last 20 bird flus have.

Next year, the big story might be how plague is going to mutate and kill us all - you do know that a handful of people get the plague every year in the U.S. right? If this bird flu thing doesn't pan out for awesome rating, then it'll be something else they 24-hour news cycle tries to get us worked up about next time.

By the way, did anyone notice the mention of the 83-84 outbreak of H5N2 HPAI bird flu in the U.S., where they had to kill millions and millions of birds? How come nobody was creating dire predictions of massive human infections and deaths at that time? My answer is: you didn't have 4 cable news networks, vying for ratings and needing to fill 24 hours with news.

Hell, there was an outbreak of bird flu in 2004 in the United States, and nobody freaked out. You know why? My guess is because they were blowing bullshit up our asses about West Nile virus.


At this point, it's all hypothetical supposition and assumptions, nothing more. That's why I'm not overly worried about it for now.




That sounds pretty reasonable. Your earlier post made it sound like you were making light of it altogether.

I guess this strain seems more dangerous (and is getting more attention) because the path recombination is leading it on appears to have a higher probability of resulting in a human-to-human, deadly version.

FWIW, Spanish Influenza made the Plague in Europe look like child’s play. Flu is in a league of its own.
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:43:39 PM EDT

Originally Posted By IAMLEGEND:

Originally Posted By DK-Prof:

Originally Posted By IAMLEGEND:

Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
I'll be sure to tell all my friends who are birds.




Come on, man. I know you're well read/well-informed enough to know about the 1918 Spanish Influenza and how real this is.




My point is that projections such as these are purely based on a HUGE assumption that it will mutate and be able to transmit human-to-human, AND a second assumption that it will be reasonably virulent too.

Obviously, at some point a killer flu IS going to take a huge chunk out of mankind, because of our dense population concentrations, urban populations that are no longer exposed to farm animals, and global interconnectedness and travel. Oh yeah - a flu or other virus, like originating in a different species is totally going to kick our ass, someday. Definitely. I agree with that.

It's the SOMEDAY part that I am pointing out. Other the media hysteria, I don't know that there's any real evidence that this particular strain of bird flu will be able to make the "jump" to a human-to-human virus, any more than the last 20 bird flus have.

Next year, the big story might be how plague is going to mutate and kill us all - you do know that a handful of people get the plague every year in the U.S. right? If this bird flu thing doesn't pan out for awesome rating, then it'll be something else they 24-hour news cycle tries to get us worked up about next time.

By the way, did anyone notice the mention of the 83-84 outbreak of H5N2 HPAI bird flu in the U.S., where they had to kill millions and millions of birds? How come nobody was creating dire predictions of massive human infections and deaths at that time? My answer is: you didn't have 4 cable news networks, vying for ratings and needing to fill 24 hours with news.

Hell, there was an outbreak of bird flu in 2004 in the United States, and nobody freaked out. You know why? My guess is because they were blowing bullshit up our asses about West Nile virus.


At this point, it's all hypothetical supposition and assumptions, nothing more. That's why I'm not overly worried about it for now.




That sounds pretty reasonable. Your earlier post made it sound like you were making light of it altogether.

I guess this strain seems more dangerous (and is getting more attention) because the path recombination is leading it on appears to have a higher probability of resulting in a human-to-human, deadly version.

FWIW, Spanish Influenza made the Plague in Europe look like child’s play. Flu is in a league of its own.



And to be fair - I am certainly NOT an expert on the details of a particular virus, and for all of my layperson's knowledge, maybe there IS something different about this particular strain.

Sorry if I seemed dismissive - the original post was meant to be more joking than anything else - I agree 100% with you and with the basic premise that something like a bird flu is going to kick our ass someday, in a huge way - that will make 1918 look like a picnic.
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:43:59 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Colltt:
For all who poo-poo something of this NATIONAL magnitude, I have one thing to say.....................................New Orleans



And for everyone that wants to hype the bird flu, I have one thing to say....SARS

Oh no. We're all gonna die. Again.

Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:46:12 PM EDT

Originally Posted By bastiat:

Originally Posted By Colltt:
For all who poo-poo something of this NATIONAL magnitude, I have one thing to say.....................................New Orleans



And for everyone that wants to hype the bird flu, I have one thing to say....SARS

Oh no. We're all gonna die. Again.



can I have your families food supplies?
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:46:16 PM EDT

Originally Posted By bastiat:

Originally Posted By Colltt:
For all who poo-poo something of this NATIONAL magnitude, I have one thing to say.....................................New Orleans



And for everyone that wants to hype the bird flu, I have one thing to say....SARS

Oh no. We're all gonna die. Again.




SARS has nothing to do with flu. Flu has a proven record of being devastating. 1918 Spanish Influenza. It was worse than the Black Plague. SARS has no such precedent.

If you want to gauge the flu, look at 1918 not SARS.
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:46:22 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Sachse:

Originally Posted By Colltt:
"ABC News has obtained a mathematical projection prepared by federal scientists based on an initial outbreak on an East Coast chicken farm in which humans are infected. Within three months, with no vaccine, almost half of the country would have the flu."
abcnews.go.com/GMA/print?id=1716820




Hype out the wazoo. 3/4 of the 50% won't even know they got it. No big deal if your healthy to begin with. If you got the aids or cancer your screwed.




It is NOT hype!! you are forgetting that 50% of the populations of Vietnam, Thailand, China and all the other countries with outbreaks HAVE DIED!!!!!!!!!!!!!

oh...wait....

NOPE!

"federal Scientists" who the FUCK is that? Big Brother now has Big Scientists? Or Big Media wants Big Ratings?
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:47:41 PM EDT

Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
I'll be sure to tell all my friends who are birds.




Funny, Thanks for the laugh
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:48:11 PM EDT

Originally Posted By phatmax:

Originally Posted By Sachse:

Originally Posted By Colltt:
"ABC News has obtained a mathematical projection prepared by federal scientists based on an initial outbreak on an East Coast chicken farm in which humans are infected. Within three months, with no vaccine, almost half of the country would have the flu."
abcnews.go.com/GMA/print?id=1716820




Hype out the wazoo. 3/4 of the 50% won't even know they got it. No big deal if your healthy to begin with. If you got the aids or cancer your screwed.




It is NOT hype!! you are forgetting that 50% of the populations of Vietnam, Thailand, China and all the other countries with outbreaks HAVE DIED!!!!!!!!!!!!!

oh...wait....

NOPE!

"federal Scientists" who the FUCK is that? Big Brother now has Big Scientists? Or Big Media wants Big Ratings?



It hasn't recombined to the point where it can go human-to-human yet. If it does you will see a bodycount.
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:48:14 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/13/2006 12:49:06 PM EDT by ZitiForBreakfast]
WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!!!!




Just like every Hurricane is worse than the last one.

Just like every blizzard.

Just like mad cow.

Just like everything else gets blown out of the water.

I am more worried about stubbing my toe or catching the flu.

Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:49:58 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/13/2006 12:50:28 PM EDT by IAMLEGEND]

Originally Posted By ZitiForBreakfast:
WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!!!!




Just like every Hurricane is worse than the last one.

Just like every blizzard.

Just like mad cow.

Just like everything else gets blown out of the water.

I am more worried about stubbing my toe or catching the flu.




Hopefully. Hopefully not like 1918.


ETA:
The influenza pandemic of 1918-1919 killed more people than the Great War, known today as World War I (WWI), at somewhere between 20 and 40 million people. It has been cited as the most devastating epidemic in recorded world history. More people died of influenza in a single year than in four-years of the Black Death Bubonic Plague from 1347 to 1351. Known as "Spanish Flu" or "La Grippe" the influenza of 1918-1919 was a global disaster.
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 12:53:47 PM EDT
Small H2H clusters have been reported in some countries. Just not sustained H2H transmission yet. The virus is ONE amino acid from becoming H2H. It may not happen, but it is well on it's way to becoming H2H. Prepare now and avoid the rush.
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 1:06:25 PM EDT

Originally Posted By IAMLEGEND:

Originally Posted By Sachse:

Originally Posted By Colltt:
"ABC News has obtained a mathematical projection prepared by federal scientists based on an initial outbreak on an East Coast chicken farm in which humans are infected. Within three months, with no vaccine, almost half of the country would have the flu."
abcnews.go.com/GMA/print?id=1716820




Hype out the wazoo. 3/4 of the 50% won't even know they got it. No big deal if your healthy to begin with. If you got the aids or cancer your screwed.



Just like in 1918?




Some are just too young to remember that pandemics occur.
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 1:07:33 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/13/2006 1:07:45 PM EDT by macman37]

Originally Posted By ZitiForBreakfast:
WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!!!!





Eventually, yes...
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 1:08:24 PM EDT
Medicine and technology is not that of 1918 in 2006 (at least for most Americans).

I aint worried.

Link Posted: 3/13/2006 1:09:06 PM EDT
In Asia you have under fed under treated children and old people..I think in the U.S. the only people who this will greatly effect are the new borns, the elderly and the homeless.....but I may be wrong...You just got to love fear mongering
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 1:09:38 PM EDT

Originally Posted By jj01:

Originally Posted By IAMLEGEND:

Originally Posted By Sachse:

Originally Posted By Colltt:
"ABC News has obtained a mathematical projection prepared by federal scientists based on an initial outbreak on an East Coast chicken farm in which humans are infected. Within three months, with no vaccine, almost half of the country would have the flu."
abcnews.go.com/GMA/print?id=1716820




Hype out the wazoo. 3/4 of the 50% won't even know they got it. No big deal if your healthy to begin with. If you got the aids or cancer your screwed.



Just like in 1918?




Some are just too young to remember that pandemics occur.



+1

Or too closed-minded or too ill-informed or too entrenched in their day-to-day life to look at a big picture of human history etc.
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 1:10:09 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/13/2006 1:10:51 PM EDT by quijanos]
All
Bullshit
Copyrighted
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 1:10:29 PM EDT

Originally Posted By ZitiForBreakfast:
Medicine and technology is not that of 1918 in 2006 (at least for most Americans).

I aint worried.




People get around a lot more, a lot easier and a lot quicker though.
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 1:11:22 PM EDT
Didn't take too long for the older, wiser crowd to come in and flex


Link Posted: 3/13/2006 1:13:32 PM EDT
The source of the story.
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 1:15:30 PM EDT
Back in 2001 I had a flu-like thing going on for about a week during the summer. Didn't think much about it, but later my MD told me I probably had West Nile. We had an outbreak here in MI, dead birds laying around and everything.

I'm still here despite all the hype.
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 1:17:05 PM EDT

Originally Posted By IAMLEGEND:

Originally Posted By jj01:

Originally Posted By IAMLEGEND:

Originally Posted By Sachse:

Originally Posted By Colltt:
"ABC News has obtained a mathematical projection prepared by federal scientists based on an initial outbreak on an East Coast chicken farm in which humans are infected. Within three months, with no vaccine, almost half of the country would have the flu."
abcnews.go.com/GMA/print?id=1716820




Hype out the wazoo. 3/4 of the 50% won't even know they got it. No big deal if your healthy to begin with. If you got the aids or cancer your screwed.



Just like in 1918?




Some are just too young to remember that pandemics occur.



+1

Or too closed-minded or too ill-informed or too entrenched in their day-to-day life to look at a big picture of human history etc.



Super.

Just what the hell am I supposed to do about it in the mean time?

I make what preps I can. Sitting aorund on the internet fretting about it and telling everyone how it could be the big one accomplishes jack shit. It just wastes hours and days of your life that you're never going to get back over something that will likely never happen. And if it does happen, all that worrying didn't make you any safer.

Link Posted: 3/13/2006 1:20:40 PM EDT

Originally Posted By 2_of_5:
Back in 2001 I had a flu-like thing going on for about a week during the summer. Didn't think much about it, but later my MD told me I probably had West Nile. We had an outbreak here in MI, dead birds laying around and everything.

I'm still here despite all the hype.


Same here, except it was 2004 for me. I layed on the couch for a week, BFD.
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 1:28:41 PM EDT
are we going to have Y2K shit every few years now? I'm stocked up agaist hurricanes, zombies and massive hords of mujahadin and now I need to stock up on what tuna, powdered milk and birdshot?
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 1:30:33 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/13/2006 1:30:55 PM EDT by IAMLEGEND]

Originally Posted By bastiat:

Super.

Just what the hell am I supposed to do about it in the mean time?

I make what preps I can. Sitting aorund on the internet fretting about it and telling everyone how it could be the big one accomplishes jack shit. It just wastes hours and days of your life that you're never going to get back over something that will likely never happen. And if it does happen, all that worrying didn't make you any safer.




Jeez, dude...I'm just surfing from work for entertainment. It's not THAT big of a waste.

Besides, who's fretting? I just get sick of the moronic comparisons to SARS and West Nile. Flu has a history that puts it in a league of it's own. It has NOTHING to do with those small-time, chump-change diseases and anyone who compares them to the flu doesn't really know what they're talking about. That's all.

I say go with your preps you mentioned. Probably put you ahead of 90% of the people, maybe more.
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 1:31:20 PM EDT

Originally Posted By BURN:
In Asia you have under fed under treated children and old people..I think in the U.S. the only people who this will greatly effect are the new borns, the elderly and the homeless.....but I may be wrong...You just got to love fear mongering



"I think in the U.S. the only people who this will greatly effect are the new borns, the elderly and the homeless"..................LOL!!! see thats all, just a few million kids, grandmas, and bums
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 1:34:21 PM EDT
The medicines they had in 1918

and those that they have today are a different story. Different outcomes.
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 1:35:17 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/13/2006 1:35:37 PM EDT by zoe17]
WIth H5N1, the people with the best immune systems will get the worst. The virus turns the immune system against the body. Cytokine storm. Nasty what the body can do.

Cytokine storm info.
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 1:37:34 PM EDT

Originally Posted By zoe17:
WIth H5N1, the people with the best immune systems will get the worst. The virus turns the immune system against the body. Cytokine storm. Nasty what the body can do.

Cytokine storm info.



That's not certain.

The high mortality rate in the prime of life group could also be attributed to the fact that the war was going on.
Barracks, trenches, railcar transport and oceangoing ships are a great way to spread flu and a bad way to fight it off. That could have caused the skewed demographic breakdown seen with the victims.
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 1:38:49 PM EDT

Originally Posted By MuRDoC:
are we going to have Y2K shit every few years now? I'm stocked up agaist hurricanes, zombies and massive hords of mujahadin and now I need to stock up on what tuna, powdered milk and birdshot?



Murdoc,

I think you may be able to divert some of the Zombie logistical stores towards infected people with the bird flu for the time being.

Link Posted: 3/13/2006 1:39:19 PM EDT

Originally Posted By slaughter:
The medicines they had in 1918

and those that they have today are a different story. Different outcomes.




What medicines do we have today that successfully combat viruses like this? We can't even reliably cure the common cold or regular flu

IAMLEGEND is correct that something like this will be devestating one day. I'm just not conviced that day is at hand.
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 1:39:34 PM EDT

Originally Posted By slaughter:
The medicines they had in 1918

and those that they have today are a different story. Different outcomes.



People can also move further, quicker, easier than they could then. It could spread quicker. It would have a real jumpstart before a viable vaccine was mass produced.

We might have better meds for bacterial pneumonia showing up secondarily but so far nothing looks great for the virus itself.
And spreading quickly affecting many, the resources would be spread thin despite being more advanced.
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 1:42:52 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/13/2006 1:43:20 PM EDT by zoe17]
I am saying the Cytokine storm happens from this strain H5N1, not just the people. But, I am saying this from what I have read about the H5N1. The "Oprah" BF show event mentioned it.

Here is a quote from CDC(from avainflutalk.com)

The Immune System and the 1918 Avian Flu Pandemic



During the 918 Avian Flu Pandemic the strongest immune systems suffered the highest mortality rates. November 2005 issue of Scientific American. http://www.sciam.com

Article excerpt:


"In contrast, the 1918 pandemic strain was most lethal to otherwise healthy young adults in their 20s and 30s, in part because their immune systems were so hardy. Researchers studying that virus have discovered that it suppresses early immune responses, such as the body's release of interferon, which normally primes cells to resist attack. At the same time, the virus provokes an extreme immune overreaction known as a cytokine storm, in which signaling molecules called cytokines summon a ferocious assault on the lungs by immune cells.”



Refering to a recnt study on the Avian flu (H5N1), Michael T Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota School of Public Health states "This study confirms earlier work that H5N1 induces a cytokine 'storm,'" said "It helps us understand the pathophysiology of the disease."



As a note: This affects those with a healthy immune system between the ages of 20 and 40
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