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Posted: 3/6/2006 5:18:36 PM EDT
My contention is that if/when gas hits $3.75+ we'll see a tremendous amount of pressure on the average folks who'll have to figure out alternate ways to work. If it hits $5/gal, we all will have serious problems from a financial standpoint. Discretionary spending will almost certainly be earmarked for travel to-and-from work, and we'll be hurtin' for certain.



Agree/Disagree?

HH
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:19:34 PM EDT
I think its going to be lower than that.
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:19:47 PM EDT
i say $4.50-$5

we handled $3.20 this past august without TOO much trouble, though a prolonged period at $3.20 could cause problems
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:21:09 PM EDT
Unfortunately, I think high gas prices are the only thing that will reduce our dependence on foreign oil. We sure aren't voluntarily conserving. The only cure for the addiction will be painful.
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:21:45 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/6/2006 5:22:14 PM EDT by ORinTX]
Here's the way I see it.

It'll really start to hurt at around $4, but we'll learn to cope. It's still a hell of a lot cheaper than they pay for gas in some countries.

Those on a tight budget will have to buy less amo
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:22:26 PM EDT
Anything over $3.50 for a period longer than "novelty" and you'll see it 30 days or less. The majority of Americans in small towns and rural areas will be fucked. Discretionary spending will be severely limited, and that closes buisnesses in small towns.
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:22:37 PM EDT
People will scrap their dualies and start driving Hondas.
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:24:33 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Napoleon_Tanerite:
i say $4.50-$5

we handled $3.20 this past august without TOO much trouble, though a prolonged period at $3.20 could cause problems



Right...and that's why I think a prolonged period of $3.75+ will cause serious problems.

IF Iran shuts off their oil flow because they've been sanctioned by the UN, OPEC will be on the spot to make up the deficit-or we're in deep trouble.

HH
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:25:22 PM EDT
I think it already there, i spent 7000 last year on fuel, all the disposable income i usually have, I guess 10 billion a quarter in profite just isnt enough for big oil, it must be getting very expensive these days to buy off our leaders
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:25:51 PM EDT
It's already been there for a lot of people for quite a while now. I receive a weekly car allowance from my employer, and am having to scale back my miles considerably as the amount I drive for work has exceeded the amount I am compensated for.
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:26:32 PM EDT
It got severe for me after it passed 99 cents a gallon.
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:27:07 PM EDT

Originally Posted By dolanp:
People will scrap their dualies and start driving Hondas.



And the price of Hondas will rise accordingly based upon supply and demand. It's a lose/lose deal.

My FIL drives in from Bellville everyday to the Beltway, and his trip is easily an hour and 15 minutes each way. He's lucky to have this job after triple-bypass and brain surgery, and it'd be very tough for he and MIL to cope at all.

HH
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:28:02 PM EDT

Originally Posted By dolanp:
People will scrap their dualies and start driving Hondas.



But I won't look cool in a honda with my afrcom bumper sticker on it. Besides, it makes me feel better driving my H3, f the kids education, it's all about my wants and my needs.


Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:30:23 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/6/2006 5:32:15 PM EDT by dolanp]

Originally Posted By HoustonHusker:

Originally Posted By dolanp:
People will scrap their dualies and start driving Hondas.



And the price of Hondas will rise accordingly based upon supply and demand. It's a lose/lose deal.

My FIL drives in from Bellville everyday to the Beltway, and his trip is easily an hour and 15 minutes each way. He's lucky to have this job after triple-bypass and brain surgery, and it'd be very tough for he and MIL to cope at all.

HH



Doubtful. Japan makes a good buck in Europe too and their gas is above $5/gal.

eta: plus there are enough other brands that are fuel efficient besides Honda that they won't be the sole source.
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:30:41 PM EDT
I've been leaving my diesel truck home and driving my GF's Toyota Echo cat-food can on wheels to work. And it has Holstein seat covers. I know what you mean about not being cool
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:31:40 PM EDT
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:33:32 PM EDT
When the price of oil hits the trigger point making shale oil a viable alternative, prices will stabalize. IMHO
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:34:04 PM EDT
Don't forget that it's just not the gas that you spend to drive your own car around. Consumer goods will also go up as the $$ in our pockets go down, and at $5, things will be real tight for those who are on budgets.
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:37:19 PM EDT

Originally Posted By dolanp:
People will scrap their dualies and start driving Hondas.



Well put but it isn't as simple. When gas/diesel hits $5 a gallon, guys who bought the 1-ton trucks will face the fact penile enlargement surgery isn't that expensive.
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:40:12 PM EDT
The minimum wage workers will be very hard pressed to make ends meet, and salaries will almost have to be adjusted to maintain a stable workforce.

Higher prices charged due to fuel increases will have to be shared proportionately with the workers or there's going to be serious problems.

HH
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:44:23 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/6/2006 5:50:06 PM EDT by AcidGambit]
$3.00 people start really bitching, I mean REALLY bitching... I don't care what the media said about $3 a gal not hurting peoples spending last summer. Everyone who owned a business here was effected in some manner.

$3.50 is where the economy will really start hurting is my opinion.

Hell, I drive a 16mpg 4-Runner, I have never really cared about MPG and I'm looking for a used Honda Civic to shoot around town in.

Just from my prospective, last summer during the peak of high prices, I didn't change my buying or spending habits all that much... But, I changed where I buy and where I spend my money. I like to eat downtown (15mi one way.) No more, I ate up near my house... I'd drive to shops I like every 2wks or so, not then, every 6wks maybe.

Price hikes are bad for the U.S. because of the serious lack of public transportation compared to Europe. Shit, they have trams and train stops everyfreaking place over there. If I want to get from say here to NOLA, the train shows up at like 3am, 2-3 times a week, I can't even get from here to Atlanta on a train. I'd like to see the US embark on a mass transit system (electric) the likes of Europe. We are tied to our cars, gas is a national security issue for this country. The politicians (EPA) has totally fucked us by not building new refineries, nuke plants, etc.
The trickle down effect has, of course, been mentioned.

My NG bill (just for heat and h20 heating) is $40 higher than my electric bill during high summer and I have seriously adjusted my spending because of that.
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:44:46 PM EDT

Originally Posted By lordtrader:
1) ON a per capita basis we have a much larger gasoline consumption than the rest of the world. Although China is catching up. Yet most everyone else in the world pay $5+ per gallon

2) Back when Oil was $11 a barrel. Gas was .99cent per gallon. Now oil closed down @ a little over $62 a barrel, yet gas is $2.25 average. See the disparity there.

3) On an inflation adjusted basis (roughly 2.2%) Our gas should be aroung $7.00 gallon. Roughly calculated.

So gas prices have not kept up with US inflation.

Price pressures will occur around $4.00 We have tested $3+ during Katrina. Granted it wasn't prolonged, but nevertheless it did not impact the economy. After reaching $4 a gallon, I believe the snowball effect will then be felt and inflation will rise. Mfg/Retailers will flow thru rising shipping cost. Consumer goods will become higher priced. Feds will step in by accelerating the rise in interest rates. Which will cause back up in inventories. Which will cause a slow down in orders. Which will cause a lay off. Economy will stabilize and viola, we will be used to paying $5.00 a gal. for gas.

This cycle I predict will happen in the next 5yrs. Unless something else blows up in the middle east and we don't get off our asses and drill somewhere in our own backyard.



God I hate when the economics professors show up and spew all that ecobabble. They always end up saying, and I'm paraphrasing here...in real dollars you're only paying x when in fact you would be paying z in comparison to the rest of the world or 30 years ago or if properly adjusted for real inflation. Sorry, if it cost twice what I paid for it 3 years ago, then it doubled and I really don't care what the wrest of the world is paying cause I'm paying double....no offense really - just makes me want to
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:46:06 PM EDT
IBPO...

In before Peak_Oil.

I think it'd have to get higher than it is in Europe (think our per-gallon price, but per liter instead) before we really felt the damage, but I'm no economist.
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:47:48 PM EDT

Originally Posted By jj01:

Originally Posted By lordtrader:
1) ON a per capita basis we have a much larger gasoline consumption than the rest of the world. Although China is catching up. Yet most everyone else in the world pay $5+ per gallon

2) Back when Oil was $11 a barrel. Gas was .99cent per gallon. Now oil closed down @ a little over $62 a barrel, yet gas is $2.25 average. See the disparity there.

3) On an inflation adjusted basis (roughly 2.2%) Our gas should be aroung $7.00 gallon. Roughly calculated.

So gas prices have not kept up with US inflation.

Price pressures will occur around $4.00 We have tested $3+ during Katrina. Granted it wasn't prolonged, but nevertheless it did not impact the economy. After reaching $4 a gallon, I believe the snowball effect will then be felt and inflation will rise. Mfg/Retailers will flow thru rising shipping cost. Consumer goods will become higher priced. Feds will step in by accelerating the rise in interest rates. Which will cause back up in inventories. Which will cause a slow down in orders. Which will cause a lay off. Economy will stabilize and viola, we will be used to paying $5.00 a gal. for gas.

This cycle I predict will happen in the next 5yrs. Unless something else blows up in the middle east and we don't get off our asses and drill somewhere in our own backyard.



God I hate when the economics professors show up and spew all that ecobabble. They always end up saying, and I'm paraphrasing here...in real dollars you're only paying x when in fact you would be paying z in comparison to the rest of the world or 30 years ago or if properly adjusted for real inflation. Sorry, if it cost twice what I paid for it 3 years ago, then it doubled and I really don't care what the wrest of the world is paying cause I'm paying double....no offense really - just makes me want to



Relax he keeps getting laid off, he may not know what he's talking about
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:48:43 PM EDT

Originally Posted By HoustonHusker:
My contention is that if/when gas hits $3.75+ we'll see a tremendous amount of pressure on the average folks who'll have to figure out alternate ways to work. If it hits $5/gal, we all will have serious problems from a financial standpoint. Discretionary spending will almost certainly be earmarked for travel to-and-from work, and we'll be hurtin' for certain.



Agree/Disagree?

HH


Agree.
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:49:05 PM EDT

Originally Posted By HoustonHusker:
The minimum wage workers will be very hard pressed to make ends meet, and salaries will almost have to be adjusted to maintain a stable workforce.

Higher prices charged due to fuel increases will have to be shared proportionately with the workers or there's going to be serious problems.

HH



The impact on minimum wage workers is overstated. True, it will be the lower income workers impacted but so will the soccer moms and their penchant for driving the children everywhere. And there is far too much recreational driving today compared to 20 years ago.

CAFE doubled since the 1970s yet the per capita mileage has also doubled. Why? Because people drive what they can afford.
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:51:55 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/6/2006 5:53:47 PM EDT by AcidGambit]

Originally Posted By Keith_J:
And there is far too much recreational driving today compared to 20 years ago.



You bet, I do it... Not to mention people want to live in the country/outside the cities and then drive 30-40mi to work, in the city.
That is one thing I will give to the Yankees up north... Drive some miles to a train station, ride into the city.
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:52:40 PM EDT

Originally Posted By HoustonHusker:
The minimum wage workers will be very hard pressed to make ends meet, and salaries will almost have to be adjusted to maintain a stable workforce.

Higher prices charged due to fuel increases will have to be shared proportionately with the workers or there's going to be serious problems.

HH



Agree, especially when you figure that the poorer usually drive bigger gashogs because they're cheaper. The cars that are 15 years old and older that they can afford are almost always full-size. The econo cars for the most part don't last that long, and usually cost more used.
Jim
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:57:09 PM EDT
I wasn't around for the gas shortage in the 70's but my father mentioned sometime in the past couple of days that when he was out west (during that time) that there were a bunch of abandoned mini-mansions in the middle of nowhere. He said that the people who owned them abandoned them because they couldn't afford/obtain the gas needed to do so. Anyone else witness this?

I believe that the way we are setup here in the US is what causes us to have such a high dependency on oil. If you look at how most rural towns are setup, in order to get anywhere, you have to drive. If we have an oil shortage, we'll probably have to change where/how we live, not unless we can find an alternative fuel source.

I'm just waiting for S to HTF and see what happens, because I have already learned that it's not economical to fix problems before they happen.
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 5:58:43 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/6/2006 6:53:57 PM EDT by fxntime]
High prices on ful in Europe is nothing but added on taxes. It costs no more then it does here without the add ons. How the hell do you think they fund "free" health care?

Above $3.00 gallon it will begin to hurt commuters and people who travel. Above $4,00 and the economy will start shrinking and business will begin to pull back. Prices on all goods will start rising to make up the difference. Commuters will begin to look at selling their houses and buying closer to work or they will look for work closer to home.

Discretionary spending will dry up and high ticket items will slow in sales.

This is not some little pissant Europeon Country. Most Countries over there are the size of our states. It is much cheaper and easier to build mass transit in Europe then it is here. Besides, we built/rebuilt most of them after the war [or helped a heck of a lot].

The first and worst to be hurt in industry will be the recreational vehicles and larger boats. Both are gas pigs and will be unsellable new or used if prices go to high. A lot of people who have already bought will just walk away from them and let them go repo. I sold my larger boat a few years ago and bought a 25HP 14.6 fishin boat. With a trolling motor I can spend a few bucks and with 20 lakes within 15 minutes I can afford to drive there.

Housing will be affected also, especially in the colder climates. Large houses with big utility bills will go up for sale as people look to downsize. This will jack up the smaller houses and lower the prices of the bigger houses. Talked to a realtor today and any house under 100K in a good location and in good shape sold quickly, the bigger houses in the 150-200K range are stacking up due to heating costs, higher mortgages and taxes.

I have always bought with an eye for good and bad in the economy, I won't have a problem.
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 6:01:41 PM EDT
At that point I'll make more money by NOT going to work.

-Foxxz
Link Posted: 3/6/2006 6:41:43 PM EDT
I live about 1.5 miles from work, and a bicycle is an alternative for me. My wife is a surgery tech. and is about 10 miles from work- no alternative.
Imagine the impact on farmers and ranchers.
Jim
Link Posted: 3/7/2006 3:05:43 AM EDT
I'm glad I have a vehicle that can run on heating oil, and a home that can be heated with wood. And a couple bicycles.
Link Posted: 3/7/2006 3:16:32 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Foxxz:
At that point I'll make more money by NOT going to work.

-Foxxz



yeah no shit!


3$ yeahits ruff we canhanlde it,,, over 4$ forlonger than 30 days,,, its gonna get tight,,, i meantight. its just not drivers or such. its buisness's,jobs ect. that will take a beating.

ya think, UPS rates wont go up if gas humps over 4-5$ or how bout shipping in general? 30$ for 3 day on a letter ! thats when we will have issues,, speciallythe lower income folks. everyone willhike up prices to cover the ""gas"" but you think joe noone will get a raise to cover his end of jsut getting to work,,i dont think so!!!!
Link Posted: 3/7/2006 3:34:07 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/7/2006 3:35:50 AM EDT by mikejohnson]
(using round numbers)

federal min wage = $5/hr X 8 = $40/day gross
avg distance to work = 10 miles each way
avg mpg = 20

if gas is $5/gal then it is $5/day
result: 12.5% loss

if gas is $2.50/gal then it is $2.50/day
result: 6.25% loss

I have heard of people making FMW and taking a taxi to work - that is absurd! and bus fare is not cheap either....so the reality is they probably spend more on a value meal then gas at $5/day....but as the price of gas goes up, so does their value meal...so who knows how the economy it will level off?
Link Posted: 3/7/2006 7:52:59 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Keith_J:
The impact on minimum wage workers is overstated. True, it will be the lower income workers impacted but so will the soccer moms and their penchant for driving the children everywhere. And there is far too much recreational driving today compared to 20 years ago.

CAFE doubled since the 1970s yet the per capita mileage has also doubled. Why? Because people drive what they can afford.



Yep, people, especially poor people, do a lot more recreational driving than they used to. And I think per capita milage has more than doubled over the past 30 years.

GunLvr
Link Posted: 3/7/2006 8:09:55 AM EDT

Originally Posted By moparman71:
Anything over $3.50 for a period longer than "novelty" and you'll see it 30 days or less. The majority of Americans in small towns and rural areas will be fucked. Discretionary spending will be severely limited, and that closes buisnesses in small towns.



It varies depending upon each person's situation, but the above post pretty much sums it up in my situation.

I live in a small PA town and commute 72 miles round trip to work. I have a very unusual job and equally unusual job skills. I cannot easily change jobs and I don't earn a big income. Not to mention the fact that I really LIKE my job. When gasoline hit $3.60 or so a gal. last year, it was frightening. The very real prospect loomed of losing my job because my monthly commute w/parking into center city Philly was turning into a nearly $400.00 per month proposition given the car I owned, etc.

I bought a Toyota Prius which doubles the gas mileage of my old car and my situation is back under control (at least for the time being).

Gas will go up again soon. And I can tell you guys exactly when; May 27th-28th, Memorial Day weekend. And it will continue to rise over the Summer. It'll probably hit at least $2.65-$2.75 this year and go higher next year.
This ain't goin' to get better.
Link Posted: 3/7/2006 8:17:13 AM EDT
For people in rural areas--at one time folks only left their homestead for church on Sunday. My mom grew up on a farm five miles from the nearest town, and while they had an old Model T car, they often used a team of horses and a wagon or sled to go to town for church.
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