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Posted: 2/21/2006 8:01:11 PM EDT
Sounds like the economic numbers are going to be very very good. Something like 6% increase in GDP or more.
Link Posted: 2/21/2006 8:03:25 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 2/21/2006 8:04:57 PM EDT by fight4yourrights]
If you seriously believe that smoke & mirrors job........



Say, see if you can tell me what the M3 number is now.......
Link Posted: 2/21/2006 8:04:36 PM EDT
Link Posted: 2/21/2006 8:12:29 PM EDT

Originally Posted By fight4yourrights:
If you seriously believe that smoke & mirrors job........



Say, see if you can tell me what the M3 number is now.......



Don't know what it is right now, but isn't it being phased out by the fed as of March?

So you place a lot of trust in the M3?
Link Posted: 2/21/2006 8:14:23 PM EDT

Originally Posted By fight4yourrights:
If you seriously believe that smoke & mirrors job........


For now: yeah.

Next month: not so much.
Link Posted: 2/21/2006 8:17:26 PM EDT

Originally Posted By DigDug:
So you place a lot of trust in the M3?


He is right. The M3 is the guide to Fed market manipulation. It also shows the amount of US currency held by foriegn central banks.

Why would the Fed not want this information public? Hrmmm.
Link Posted: 2/21/2006 8:22:56 PM EDT

Originally Posted By TheCynic:

Originally Posted By DigDug:
So you place a lot of trust in the M3?


He is right. The M3 is the guide to Fed market manipulation. It also shows the amount of US currency held by foriegn central banks.

Why would the Fed not want this information public? Hrmmm.



So is having US currency held by foreign banks a bad thing? Would you rather have them holding EU's?

The fed manipulates the US economy. What else is it suppose to do? Print all the money it can? Loan money at 0% or 100%?
Link Posted: 2/21/2006 8:24:11 PM EDT
they're reasoning for not publishing M3 anymore was "to save money" by not publishing this "unnecessary statistic"......


ROFLMAO! like it costs so much money to publish a statistic! since when has the gov't given a damn about saving a pithy amount by NOT MAKING PUBLIC a statistic which they have anyway? unless they had a reason for NOT WANTING ANYONE TO KNOW.

Link Posted: 2/21/2006 8:25:28 PM EDT

Originally Posted By fossil_fuel:
they're reasoning for not publishing M3 anymore was "to save money" by not publishing this "unnecessary statistic"......


ROFLMAO! like it costs so much money to publish a statistic! since when has the gov't given a damn about saving a pithy amount by NOT MAKING PUBLIC a statistic which they have anyway? unless they had a reason for NOT WANTING ANYONE TO KNOW.




Yeah, must be a conspiracy...
Link Posted: 2/21/2006 8:27:09 PM EDT
My company missed their estimates. Our stock is down about 15-20% right now :( I guess 9.8 instead of 10 billion isnt enough.
Link Posted: 2/21/2006 8:27:14 PM EDT

Originally Posted By DigDug:

Originally Posted By fossil_fuel:
they're reasoning for not publishing M3 anymore was "to save money" by not publishing this "unnecessary statistic"......


ROFLMAO! like it costs so much money to publish a statistic! since when has the gov't given a damn about saving a pithy amount by NOT MAKING PUBLIC a statistic which they have anyway? unless they had a reason for NOT WANTING ANYONE TO KNOW.




Yeah, must be a conspiracy...



damn right it is.

if something was starting to go horribly wrong, and our current economic system was unsustainable in the long or even medium term, do you think the fed and the gov't would come right out and say "oops, we fucked up, looks like we're all screwed."
Link Posted: 2/21/2006 8:28:44 PM EDT

Originally Posted By fossil_fuel:

Originally Posted By DigDug:

Originally Posted By fossil_fuel:
they're reasoning for not publishing M3 anymore was "to save money" by not publishing this "unnecessary statistic"......


ROFLMAO! like it costs so much money to publish a statistic! since when has the gov't given a damn about saving a pithy amount by NOT MAKING PUBLIC a statistic which they have anyway? unless they had a reason for NOT WANTING ANYONE TO KNOW.




Yeah, must be a conspiracy...



damn right it is.

if something was starting to go horribly wrong, and our current economic system was unsustainable in the long or even medium term, do you think the fed and the gov't would come right out and say "oops, we fucked up, looks like we're all screwed."



Pull the tinfoil down over your ears and take your happy pills...
Link Posted: 2/21/2006 8:30:21 PM EDT
Link Posted: 2/21/2006 8:35:32 PM EDT

Originally Posted By DigDug:
So is having US currency held by foreign banks a bad thing? Would you rather have them holding EU's?


On the contrary, the problem will be if they start dumping dollars. Luckily for us, foreign governments cannot dump dollars because, due to a sweatheart deal with the Saudis, oil can only be purchased with dollars. Many nations are not thrilled with so much of their reserves tied up in the dollar. What happens if oil was able to be purchased in euros instead. This would allow those skittish nations to deversify their dollar reserves into euros. The Iranian Oil Borse opens next month which will allow just that: oil to be purchased in euros. World governments will suddenly be able to dump some of their massive dollar reserves, which would show up in giant red letters in the M3 report.


Originally Posted By DigDug:
The fed manipulates the US economy. What else is it suppose to do? Print all the money it can?


Exactly. Hyperinflation to stave off deflation is a tenant of our new Fed chairman.

I'm hoping that this is all [tinfoil]
Link Posted: 2/21/2006 8:39:50 PM EDT

Originally Posted By DigDug:

Originally Posted By fossil_fuel:

Originally Posted By DigDug:

Originally Posted By fossil_fuel:
they're reasoning for not publishing M3 anymore was "to save money" by not publishing this "unnecessary statistic"......


ROFLMAO! like it costs so much money to publish a statistic! since when has the gov't given a damn about saving a pithy amount by NOT MAKING PUBLIC a statistic which they have anyway? unless they had a reason for NOT WANTING ANYONE TO KNOW.




Yeah, must be a conspiracy...



damn right it is.

if something was starting to go horribly wrong, and our current economic system was unsustainable in the long or even medium term, do you think the fed and the gov't would come right out and say "oops, we fucked up, looks like we're all screwed."



Pull the tinfoil down over your ears and take your happy pills...




if you want to continue believing that massive trade deficits, a huge national debt, and a dollar which only maintains it's value because of it's status as the world's reserve currency and the currency necessary to purchase oil with is a good way to maintain a healthy economy in the long-term, go right ahead. go right ahead condo-flipping and putting money in your 401k made up of dow jones index funds, like a good sheeperson
Link Posted: 2/21/2006 8:41:18 PM EDT
Is it just me, or is this site in need of an icon of a yellow headed dude with a tinfoil hat?
Link Posted: 2/21/2006 8:42:11 PM EDT

Originally Posted By fossil_fuel:
go right ahead condo-flipping and putting money in your 401k made up of S&P 500 index funds, like a good sheeperson



Oh shit.
Link Posted: 2/21/2006 8:45:23 PM EDT

Originally Posted By fossil_fuel:

Originally Posted By DigDug:

Originally Posted By fossil_fuel:

Originally Posted By DigDug:

Originally Posted By fossil_fuel:
they're reasoning for not publishing M3 anymore was "to save money" by not publishing this "unnecessary statistic"......


ROFLMAO! like it costs so much money to publish a statistic! since when has the gov't given a damn about saving a pithy amount by NOT MAKING PUBLIC a statistic which they have anyway? unless they had a reason for NOT WANTING ANYONE TO KNOW.




Yeah, must be a conspiracy...



damn right it is.

if something was starting to go horribly wrong, and our current economic system was unsustainable in the long or even medium term, do you think the fed and the gov't would come right out and say "oops, we fucked up, looks like we're all screwed."



Pull the tinfoil down over your ears and take your happy pills...




if you want to continue believing that massive trade deficits, a huge national debt, and a dollar which only maintains it's value because of it's status as the world's reserve currency and the currency necessary to purchase oil with is a good way to maintain a healthy economy in the long-term, go right ahead. go right ahead condo-flipping and putting money in your 401k made up of dow jones index funds, like a good sheeperson



Link Posted: 2/21/2006 8:46:43 PM EDT

Originally Posted By ORinTX:
Is it just me, or is this site in need of an icon of a yellow headed dude with a tinfoil hat?



Bigtime.
Link Posted: 2/22/2006 9:57:40 AM EDT

Originally Posted By fossil_fuel:
they're reasoning for not publishing M3 anymore was "to save money" by not publishing this "unnecessary statistic"......

ROFLMAO! like it costs so much money to publish a statistic! since when has the gov't given a damn about saving a pithy amount by NOT MAKING PUBLIC a statistic which they have anyway? unless they had a reason for NOT WANTING ANYONE TO KNOW.



I suspect it costs millions to collect and publish the data.

Back when I was in grad school the macroeconomists didn't seem to care too much about measures beyond M1, since M2 and M3 track M1 rather closely over the time periods they are interested in (years, not months or days).

GunLvr
Link Posted: 2/22/2006 10:04:10 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 2/22/2006 11:04:04 AM EDT by zaphar]

Originally Posted By DigDug:

Originally Posted By fossil_fuel:
they're reasoning for not publishing M3 anymore was "to save money" by not publishing this "unnecessary statistic"......


ROFLMAO! like it costs so much money to publish a statistic! since when has the gov't given a damn about saving a pithy amount by NOT MAKING PUBLIC a statistic which they have anyway? unless they had a reason for NOT WANTING ANYONE TO KNOW.




Yeah, must be a conspiracy...



Well, it seems like the government is turning into one big black box if you ask me
Link Posted: 2/22/2006 10:07:57 AM EDT
Link Posted: 2/22/2006 10:08:12 AM EDT

Originally Posted By ORinTX:
Is it just me, or is this site in need of an icon of a yellow headed dude with a tinfoil hat?



Didn't someone make one for the survivalist forum?
Link Posted: 2/22/2006 10:13:36 AM EDT
.
Link Posted: 2/22/2006 10:15:02 AM EDT

Originally Posted By DigDug:
Sounds like the economic numbers are going to be very very good. Something like 6% increase in GDP or more.



Given that the bond market is apparently now inverted -- I wouldn't get too excited about those numbers...
Link Posted: 2/22/2006 10:17:52 AM EDT

Originally Posted By zaphar:

Originally Posted By DigDug:

Originally Posted By fossil_fuel:
they're reasoning for not publishing M3 anymore was "to save money" by not publishing this "unnecessary statistic"......


ROFLMAO! like it costs so much money to publish a statistic! since when has the gov't given a damn about saving a pithy amount by NOT MAKING PUBLIC a statistic which they have anyway? unless they had a reason for NOT WANTING ANYONE TO KNOW.




Yeah, must be a conspiracy...



Well, it seems like the government is turning into on big black box if you ask me



A lockbox?

OMG - Gore was right !!!


Link Posted: 2/22/2006 10:18:34 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 2/22/2006 10:18:54 AM EDT by JIMBEAM]

Originally Posted By DigDug:
Sounds like the economic numbers are going to be very very good. Something like 6% increase in GDP or more.



To quote the Dems "It's about the economy"

I am so glad they didn't win the last election and take credit for this.
Link Posted: 2/22/2006 10:22:38 AM EDT

Originally Posted By GunLvrPHD:

Originally Posted By fossil_fuel:
they're reasoning for not publishing M3 anymore was "to save money" by not publishing this "unnecessary statistic"......

ROFLMAO! like it costs so much money to publish a statistic! since when has the gov't given a damn about saving a pithy amount by NOT MAKING PUBLIC a statistic which they have anyway? unless they had a reason for NOT WANTING ANYONE TO KNOW.



I suspect it costs millions to collect and publish the data.

Back when I was in grad school the macroeconomists didn't seem to care too much about measures beyond M1, since M2 and M3 track M1 rather closely over the time periods they are interested in (years, not months or days).

GunLvr



I think that you are glossing over a very important caveat regarding the movements of M1, M2 and M3 over time - Monetary aggregates move together BROADLY over LONG PERIODS of TIME. However,their growth rates diverge during some periods. If these measures of money do not move together, they may tell different stories about what is happening to money Those words come right from a Federal Reserve Bulletin.

Millions of dollars to collect the data? Please, a million dollars in the federal budget is equivalent to what in the average person's budget? A penny, at best.
Link Posted: 2/22/2006 10:35:18 AM EDT

Originally Posted By DigDug:

Originally Posted By fight4yourrights:
If you seriously believe that smoke & mirrors job........



Say, see if you can tell me what the M3 number is now.......



Don't know what it is right now, but isn't it being phased out by the fed as of March?

So you place a lot of trust in the M3?

'


No, I don't - but WHY is it being phased out...............
Link Posted: 2/22/2006 11:06:17 AM EDT

Originally Posted By macman37:
Dig this


Interesting article, I'll keep that date in mind, I need to order a few things before it. Even if it turns out I don't need them, it will still be nice to have them.
Link Posted: 2/22/2006 11:17:05 AM EDT

Originally Posted By zaphar:

Originally Posted By macman37:
Dig this


Interesting article, I'll keep that date in mind, I need to order a few things before it. Even if it turns out I don't need them, it will still be nice to have them.



Glad you read it. I was hoping someone would!
Link Posted: 2/22/2006 11:42:31 AM EDT

Originally Posted By HIPPO:
I think that you are glossing over a very important caveat regarding the movements of M1, M2 and M3 over time - Monetary aggregates move together BROADLY over LONG PERIODS of TIME. However,their growth rates diverge during some periods. If these measures of money do not move together, they may tell different stories about what is happening to money Those words come right from a Federal Reserve Bulletin.

Millions of dollars to collect the data? Please, a million dollars in the federal budget is equivalent to what in the average person's budget? A penny, at best.



Again, real economists aren't going to care much about M3 versus M2 over the periods they do research, which is years not months. I am sure that some Wall Street types might care, but chances are the better ones have other derived statistics they follow.

The Fed is not part of the Federal government. They are self-funding, and their budget isn't set by the President or Congress. But I can tell you as someone who once worked as a government economist that the government spends huge amounts of money publishing the most arcane of annual statistics. Plenty of those are fixed costs but there are huge variable costs too. Just imagine how much the government spends each year not just printing but mailing "Public Land Statistics" to every interested party who wants a copy. You would be surprised how many places besides Federal deposit libraries want a copy.

The real problem with all this paranoia is why would you trust any government statistic? They could keep publishing M3 and just make the number up I suppose, or maybe that is what they have been doing all along? If you don't trust that they are discontinuing the series then why would you trust the series at all, ever?

GunLvr
Link Posted: 2/24/2006 7:35:46 PM EDT

Originally Posted By rasanders22:
My company missed their estimates. Our stock is down about 15-20% right now :( I guess 9.8 instead of 10 billion isnt enough.


Shame on your company........ spooking the fickle fucking investors.

There are worse things, though. It could have been OTHER PEOPLE'S forecasts y'all were being punished for not making.
Link Posted: 2/25/2006 9:28:13 AM EDT

Originally Posted By rasanders22:
My company missed their estimates. Our stock is down about 15-20% right now :( I guess 9.8 instead of 10 billion isnt enough.



What company? This would be a great time to buy their stock.
Link Posted: 2/25/2006 9:34:09 AM EDT

Originally Posted By ORinTX:
Is it just me, or is this site in need of an icon of a yellow headed dude with a tinfoil hat?



not just you

Link Posted: 2/26/2006 9:18:51 PM EDT

Originally Posted By GunLvrPHD:

Originally Posted By rasanders22:
My company missed their estimates. Our stock is down about 15-20% right now :( I guess 9.8 instead of 10 billion isnt enough.


What company? This would be a great time to buy their stock.


Look here, folks. The creature you see is the elusive spotted owl - er, logical investor. Soon to be extinct, this creature might only be able to be preserved on film and Intarweb forums.
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