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Posted: 1/19/2006 3:38:47 PM EDT
I've seen a lot of talk on here about SHTF situations, and what gear/supplys/weapons you should have. I'm all about being prepared, I have a small surpus supplys for things like short power outages, or maybe bad storms...tornados and stuff like that. But I've seen that some of you guys have HUGE! stockpiles of gear/food/weapons/ammo. I bet some of you guys have thousands and thousands of dollars in stuff....just waiting for when SHTF.

For those of you who have huge cache's of SHTF stuff.......how likely do you think you are to be in a SHTF situation? I guess it all depends on where you live....some areas are more likely to have SHTF situations that others.

Do you think you will ever have to use your SHTF supplys.....ever?

Just wondering.

Link Posted: 1/19/2006 3:39:25 PM EDT
Define "SHTF Situation"
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 3:40:24 PM EDT
I used to think 0.0% - close to a city, no earthquakes, etc.

Then Katrina happened and I realized I was wrong.

G
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 3:40:48 PM EDT
This thread needs a poll.
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 3:43:44 PM EDT
Look at New Orleans. I never thought I'd never see people laying on the highway dieing with no one helping them in the U.S. of A..

The S.H.T.F. in many ways.

______________________


Link Posted: 1/19/2006 3:47:12 PM EDT
Likely.

I live in a welfare nanny state, not much different than New Orleans. It seems like any little thing might set it off at anytime. We have insufficient police, the county and city are both bankrupt, they are now trying to tax the Indian reservations, the taxes have gone insane, and jobs are vanishing at a rapid pace. I won't even get into the politics.

Sad state of affairs, and I live uncomfortably close to SHTF-Central.

Link Posted: 1/19/2006 3:47:46 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/19/2006 3:59:51 PM EDT by EPOCH96]

Originally Posted By glock23carry:
I used to think 0.0% - close to a city, no earthquakes, etc.

Then Katrina happened and I realized I was wrong.

G


+ Rita. She didn't come close to chaos of Katrina/NOLA, but the destruction was enough for my lifetime...





Life would have really sucked if we didn't have that RV... Luckly that bad boy holds a ton of gear and gas.

EPOCH

Link Posted: 1/19/2006 3:58:36 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/19/2006 4:02:27 PM EDT by donne3]
depends on the degree of S H'ing the F.

total destruction of society? I'd give that a 25% chance of happening in my lifetime.
"minor" - as in no power for more than a week/roads blocked/crazy zombies looting the stores? I don't see why I should be so arrogant as to think that wouldn't happen to me in my lifetime.
job loss for more than 6 months? been there, done that.

everyone will face some sort of crisis in their lifetimes. the mindset I get from preparing for the worst helps me deal more easily with the minor stuff that happens along the way...

if for no other reason, it gives me peace of mind to know that if it did hit the fan, I'd have an above-average chance at survival. I would not be caught without basic necessities.

ETA: please change your poll to include only 4 choices. with 5 choices, the percentages on the last two freak out. thanks.
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 4:01:41 PM EDT
Already been there and the odds are it will happen again.

Link Posted: 1/19/2006 4:09:51 PM EDT
I hope that one day my grandchildren are sorting through my junk, and say, "wow, he had alot stuff". I mean I hope I never have to use my SHTF preps. As far as ammo goes, I shoot alot, so I keep alot, look at the 5.56 shortage and price increase. What if a $10.00/box tax was passed?

I prepare so that myself and my family, will have a decent chance of over coming unforseen events.
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 4:10:24 PM EDT
Already happened, so put me down for 100%.
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 4:16:07 PM EDT
House on high ground - check
Not near the coast - check
Not near a fault line - check



0%
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 4:16:50 PM EDT
I live on the gulf coast. Nuff Said.
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 4:19:50 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Janus:
House on high ground - check
Not near the coast - check
Not near a fault line - check



0%



what about a forest fire? what about an unexpectedly serious winter storm that leaves you without power?
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 4:20:33 PM EDT
Depends on what you define as SHTF, but living in SoCal I voted 100% because another biggish earthquake WILL happen (and you might also include the typhoons and earthquakesI've already weathered.)

Now if you need blood running in the streets from looters, etc. in your immediate vicinity, it drops down a lot closer to 25%.

But, maybe no water, no power, for a week or more, only food and supplies I have in stock until the relief supplies start moving again, then way back up.


do we have regional plans, yes, do we exercise them? yes, are we planning to have food and water moved in? yes. Why? Because nobody in their right minds thinks that evacuation would work in SoCal. Plus while we expect the Feds and FEMA to come through, we realistically don't think that will happen for close to a week. And all the state and county and city plans reflect that. Also our climate is temperate enough most of the time that unless it hits at the same time as a major winter storm, living outside is not an impossibility for most of us.
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 4:21:52 PM EDT
I think it is highly unlikely.

Then again, every time I get in my car, I also think it is highly unlikely I will be in an accident during that trip - but I still wear my seatbelt, and have emergency tools and stuff in the car.

And, I do live in tornado alley, and on top of a large faultline. "Be prepared ... just in case"
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 4:22:04 PM EDT
As a 19yr old male, without a doubt within my lifetime. Somebody is going to get thier feelings hurt and drop a nuke/WMD one of these days.
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 4:23:02 PM EDT
Go Buckeyes!

OSU 1987

G
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 4:25:55 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/19/2006 4:27:35 PM EDT by Janus]

Originally Posted By donne3:

Originally Posted By Janus:
House on high ground - check
Not near the coast - check
Not near a fault line - check



0%



what about a forest fire? what about an unexpectedly serious winter storm that leaves you without power?



Not enough trees for it to reach the house.

We burn wood in the winter so no electricity isn't needed to keep warm. If it's out too long we can just drive across town to a family's place.

We also live on the east side of a major metro area. So most severe weather is over by the time it reaches us.
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 4:31:51 PM EDT
I live in Florida I have been through 2 in the past two years. Ivan and Dennis, almost got hit by Katrina. These were natural SHTF situations but gas running out a week before the hurricane comes, plywood gone, highways packed full of cars and hundreds of broke down cars a long the roads is pretty close to SHTF in my book. Not outright pandamonium but pretty damn close to people throwing down to start taking shit and buggin' out.

Katrina was as close as I want to come to dodging the bullet, my house would have been gone by the storm surge and maybe myself with it.
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 4:38:13 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/19/2006 4:39:25 PM EDT by 1jackal]
Depends...........

If the wife finds out how much money I've been spending on "survival items" then my odds are 100%


As for natural or man-made I'd say 50/50. No harm being prepared though.
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 4:42:02 PM EDT

Originally Posted By stickfigure:
I live in Florida I have been through 2 in the past two years. Ivan and Dennis, almost got hit by Katrina. These were natural SHTF situations but gas running out a week before the hurricane comes, plywood gone, highways packed full of cars and hundreds of broke down cars a long the roads is pretty close to SHTF in my book. Not outright pandamonium but pretty damn close to people throwing down to start taking shit and buggin' out.

Katrina was as close as I want to come to dodging the bullet, my house would have been gone by the storm surge and maybe myself with it.



I have a question about plywood in Florida. How is it that every time there is a hurricane, you guys buy up all the plywood? Does no one there think "hey, when I take this down, it will still be 100% effective and can be re-used during the next hurricane. Perhaps I should stack it up in the garage.... SO I DON'T HAVE TO GO BUY THE SAME DAMN PLYWOOD AGAIN NEXT YEAR."



G
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 4:55:10 PM EDT
i think our biggest threat is the mass hysteria brought on by a terror attack.

when a hurricane hit houston, i couldn't believe the way people in san antonio were acting. people were fighting over groceries, sheeple who only keep 2 or 3 days worth of food on hand were rushing to the store to buy as much water and canned food as they could fit in their car. i couldn't imagine how people might act if there's another teror attack.

i stay prepared because if something does happen, it's likely that the stores will be empty(assuming they're open), or i won't be able to get to the stores. i stay armed because i believe the neighbors who think the government is there to protect us will probably end up being the biggest threat. i'm fortunate to live away from the city where everyone has their own well, water storage tank, generator, and hopefully food. there is plenty of game around here to hunt if it comes to it... lots of whitetails, rabbits, etc.

basically, if anything does happen, i'd expect a NOLA type situation: government won't help, no way for most people to get food or water, roving gangs stealing from those who are prepared.


will it happen? i doubt it will... at least not on a large scale. but you might as well be prepared. if you aren't, you'll definately regret it if something happens.
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 4:57:17 PM EDT
I'm pretty much always right on the edge.
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 5:08:31 PM EDT
I say very likely. 26-50%

I am hoping it doesn't happen though.
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 5:15:12 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/19/2006 5:18:34 PM EDT by fla556guy]
I said 1-25%. That's still 1-25% for me not to have something stashed away in case of it. I'm sorry, but I'm NOT going to be the dumbass who doesn't keep at least enough stuff to get me to more stuff so that I can survive. Oh, and my plywood and generator and gas is in my garage as I type. Attachment points and size of plywood already taken care of so that all I have to do is install it.
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 5:18:14 PM EDT
My home will never be in a shtf situation because of location but I plan to go to where I am needed
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 5:19:12 PM EDT
I live 3 miles from Barksdale AFB(Minot AFB is its paralell base) home of the 8th AF bomb (B-52s)wing and a massive chunk of our nations nuclear arsenal. It is certainly in the top 10 targets of anyone seeking to disable our Nuke capacity. So in an exchange I at the least get fallout, fortunately the nuke storage areas are many miles away from the gates and my home. Also LA. would be one hell of a sticking point should the U.S. gov ever declare Martial Law.
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 5:20:50 PM EDT
At any point in my entire liifetime? I'd say about 90% chance.

I mean, thats like saying the US is not going to go through a major war, natural disaster, or economic collapse within the next 60 years.
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 5:22:23 PM EDT
A natural one, Very likely.

Live near the Ocean, Near a Fault line.

Am a member of a USAR team.

I rate the chances of being involved as good.
Link Posted: 1/19/2006 5:28:58 PM EDT
Likley.

Keep your powder dry.
Link Posted: 1/20/2006 10:56:10 AM EDT

Originally Posted By ar-steve:
My home will never be in a shtf situation because of location but I plan to go to where I am needed



Hmm...

Train wrek of toxic or nuclear waste causes county wide evacuation?
Worst winter storm of all time causes 20' of snow to fall in 4 days.
Link Posted: 1/20/2006 9:39:59 PM EDT
So far, two riots, three trips to war zones, one robbery, one home invader, two armed thugs tried to rob me while I was shooting(that didn't go exactly as they planned), two armed road ragers, one ice storm, two hurricanes, a forest fire and a blizzard.

The shit hits in all sorts of ways. There is more to life than a flashlite and a bag of bullets, be a good Boy Scout and be prepared to be useful anytime day or night.
Link Posted: 1/20/2006 9:42:20 PM EDT
I’m 19 and Bush is president, what more do I need to be worried?
Link Posted: 1/20/2006 9:49:15 PM EDT
Republicans kill thousands of people in wars on the other hand wars started by democrats have killed millions. Worry a little about George, worry a lot about Hitlary Klinton.

The democrat/socialist agenda that is coming includes banning guns, restriciting free speech for non-socialists, socialized medicine, restricting property rights, raising taxes and redivision of wealth. When they fail to address international terrorists from the "Religon of Peace" we will be in a world of hurt. Hugs, homosexuality and empathy for a hateful religon won't save you.

Link Posted: 1/20/2006 9:54:09 PM EDT

Originally Posted By lonegunman:
Republicans kill thousands of people in wars on the other hand wars started by democrats have killed millions. Worry a little about George, worry a lot about Hitlary Klinton.

The democrat/socialist agenda that is coming includes banning guns, restriciting free speech for non-socialists, socialized medicine, restricting property rights, raising taxes and redivision of wealth. When they fail to address international terrorists from the "Religon of Peace" we will be in a world of hurt. Hugs, homosexuality and empathy for a hateful religon won't save you.




That my friend is when the second revolution begins
Link Posted: 1/20/2006 9:54:18 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Hylton:
I’m 19 and Bush is president, what more do I need to be worried?



W has been in office for 5 years now. Since you were 14. Tells us about the W induced SHTF in your life.
Link Posted: 1/20/2006 9:55:12 PM EDT
Not sure how you define SHTF. I've been in a couple of knife fights, the middle of a race riot that erupted around me, and had a bear charge me just this last year. I consider all of those SHTF.

I think we are due for an Avian Flu Pandemic which will be SHTF and could have plenty more to go with it.

An economic collapse is almost guaranteed in my lifetime as far as I am concerned.

Other than that, where I live the odds of a hurricane or large scale civil disruption are unlikely. If things descend to anarchy all the way out where I live the cities will be burned out trash heaps.


Prepare for yourself and your family. Anyone who thinks they will take what they want when the time comes will end up dead. Even if they kill others to get what they want they will end up dead, just a matter of time.
Ideally, if everyone were reasonably prepared we would ALL be better off, short and long term.
Link Posted: 1/20/2006 10:04:55 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/20/2006 10:20:32 PM EDT by JohnTheTexican]

Originally Posted By donne3:
depends on the degree of S H'ing the F.

total destruction of society? I'd give that a 25% chance of happening in my lifetime.
"minor" - as in no power for more than a week/roads blocked/crazy zombies looting the stores? I don't see why I should be so arrogant as to think that wouldn't happen to me in my lifetime.
job loss for more than 6 months? been there, done that.

everyone will face some sort of crisis in their lifetimes. the mindset I get from preparing for the worst helps me deal more easily with the minor stuff that happens along the way...

if for no other reason, it gives me peace of mind to know that if it did hit the fan, I'd have an above-average chance at survival. I would not be caught without basic necessities.

ETA: please change your poll to include only 4 choices. with 5 choices, the percentages on the last two freak out. thanks.




Except for the looting zombies, I've been through two "minor" SHTF situations in the last 10 years (an ice storm about 10 years ago that shut down the city for a few days and knocked out power for a couple weeks and a hurricane a few months ago that shut down the city for a couple weeks and knocked out power at my house for nearly a month). I had no occasion to use the guns or ammo (although there was some looting elsewhere), but I did run through my other disaster supplies. I'd say the chances of it happening again in my lifetime are pretty good.

Link Posted: 1/20/2006 10:12:07 PM EDT
I'm really starting to hate the phrase. It's worse than "Hive Mind", "Pie", "Zombies" and "tactical" put together.

It's too damned vague.

If you have a question, please be more specific. Are you asking about:

Economic Meltdown (On a National, Local, or Personal level)

War

Local Weather emergencies.

Civil unrest

Medical Emergencies

Injury and Death.



We are all going to die one day, so it's safe to assume the S will HTF one way or the other.

There is nothing new or unique about people trying to prepare for contingencies. We are each decended from a long line of survivors.

Link Posted: 1/20/2006 10:14:50 PM EDT
the shit hits the fan daily around here, but that's because I've got a perverted neighbor who has a fan and scat fetish with exhibitionist tendancies(it's pretty gross)
Link Posted: 1/20/2006 10:36:21 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Janus:
House on high ground - check
Not near the coast - check
Not near a fault line - check



0%



Yea but is the rest of the city on high ground? Thats what you have to worry about.
My house is located the same as yours. I read a story from the 70's where it happened to flood here. Very unusual I thought. It turned out that the cloud seeding they were doing went wrong and in turn we got a shit load of rain that flooded the whole city. I found out that my house wasn't flooded but it's the 500,000 or so homeless that you have to worry about and the criminals who take advantage of a bad situation.

Link Posted: 1/20/2006 10:40:22 PM EDT
Been in a forest fire in 98 in Central Florida.
Central Florida 2004, just north of where all three storms crossed, during them.
Went into NOLA and Pascagula , Miss. days after Katrina.
So I guess I can say I have seen SHTF, and have seen how different groups clean it up.
Pat
0-1-25
Link Posted: 1/20/2006 11:11:27 PM EDT
We've already had riots here once in my lifetime in Los Angeles, and its not the first time its happened here. I would guess if it happens again, it will be at least if not more violent with history as a predictor. That scenario was from a stupid court verdict, think what would happen if we had a significant quake here that disrupted everything.

BTW, the racial climate here in Cali or anywhere else along the US/Mexico border is certainly not improving either.
Link Posted: 1/21/2006 1:15:24 AM EDT

Originally Posted By bigdb1:
Already happened, so put me down for 100%.

Me, too. Quite a few times.
Link Posted: 1/21/2006 1:42:46 AM EDT
Unless you live in a cave, and the cave is cave-in proof, the shit can hit your fan pretty much anytime.

Take a look at the behavior after hurricane Katrina, less than 24 hours and they were killing each other and tearing a city apart. Noboby was starving, most people could stand to miss a few meals. Nobody was more than 10 miles from help and they could not behave well enough for nearby towns to even allow them in the city limits.

The perfect storm is not weather. It is the stupidity of the uneducated, uninformed and unprepared masses of mostly democrats that feel they have the right to do whatever they need to survive at the expense of the rest of us in a time of crisis.

I have enough canned crap in the house for a week or so, my camp stove and Coleman latern, gas for the car and I can dig a latrine in the garden. A week without power sucks, but I've done it before. I'm amazed at how many people cannot function for even 48 hours without a trip to the store. When the democrats come to loot and burn me out, they better bring their "A" game.
Link Posted: 1/21/2006 3:34:11 AM EDT
At home, not too likely.....At work unfortunately, it is very likely.
Link Posted: 1/21/2006 3:48:45 AM EDT
Link Posted: 1/21/2006 4:07:30 AM EDT
Odds are still pretty high.

SHTF to me is any situation where my family's life -or mine- is in serious danger, how it gets there is not really important but we should consider a few and try to be prepared for the possibility.

A natural disaster on a grand scale -as we have recently seen- could set the wheels in motion for a complete break down. This is the most likely to happen in certain areas of the US and should be prepared for. Not likely for me in this part of town.

A personal SHTF, a situation where your life is in serious danger from man or animal is very likely in certain areas. You know who you are, I am in the position where man would be my biggest threat, that is unless I'm in PA where we see black bear walk by the house on occasion and plenty of tracks nearby.


A terrorist attack would not have much clout as a SHTF because those pussies sneak you, and you don't have the chance to defend/protect yourself. I won't give them high marks in the SHTF category because you either survive the sneak attack or you don't, but at least the filthy bastrads usually die. Chances of armed tangos running through our streets killing people -Slim to none. Enough said on that.

My personal situation puts me right smack in the middle of a potential for a break down of the hood, and I am pretty well prepared for that when I'm home where I have weapons, but not while I'm at work. Well not always, we do rifle cleaning at the shop weekly, and I always have a loaded magaine in my toolbox. My biggest fear would be a breakdown or riot while I'm at work with no weapons and my family is home alone. Thank God I work only a few blocks away and my boss (a 'Nam vet) would lend me a rifle/shotgun and a hand getting to my apartment and family if things really got bad enough. I normally keep my firearms locked at home and the keys come with me because the kids have friends over all the time, but I will be instructing my family on procedure and leaving a set of keys with the wife from now on. I give this a 30% chance of happening.

The top of my list would be a scenario that escalates into a SHTF where you happen to be at the wrong place at the right time. This could be the result of a road raging driver, car accident, roaming street gangs looking for prey(we have our share of shootings here that are mostly gang related but inoccents get caught in the middle often) or any number of situations that put your life in immediate danger.

Gun laws over here keep me unarmed out on the street so I don't have much of a defense other than taking cover and keeping distance between me and the threat. If escape is impossible, I'd have to keep alive until they get close enough to me, but I always have a few options available to me.
Link Posted: 1/21/2006 4:17:00 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/21/2006 4:17:26 AM EDT by pyro6988]

Originally Posted By TomJefferson:
Sure would like to see some pics of these fire proof, flood proof, Earthquake proof, tornado proof, chemical spill proof, and burglar proof homes.

Please post pics.



Don't forget disease and bullet proof.
Link Posted: 1/21/2006 4:27:35 AM EDT

Originally Posted By pyro6988:

Originally Posted By TomJefferson:
Sure would like to see some pics of these fire proof, flood proof, Earthquake proof, tornado proof, chemical spill proof, and burglar proof homes.

Please post pics.



Don't forget disease and bullet proof.



yeah no shit!!!

anyone that thinks they are ""safe"" from anything is a fucking idiot!

shtf has happend to me since last year 5 times with these damn canes!!
No matter how prep'd you are mother nature rules,, she diecides on if you have a roof to live under or a life to live!!!

no matter hwere your at,, it is only a matter of time when an event happnes that the shit will come to YOU! wake up !
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