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Posted: 1/10/2006 5:24:33 AM EDT
The Wheel of History Turns Round and Round…


The Japanese had went on their march of conquest in Asia and the Pacific in 1931, and we watched as they subjugated China.

From 1919 through the 1930s the nations of Europe imposed restrictions on Germany against rearming with war materiel.

Germany ignored these restrictions, and continued to develop and produce the machinery of war.

On this side of the Atlantic we wondered what, if anything, to do about the Nazis in Germany.

We watched from a distance while war ravaged Europe for three years before Pearl Harbor launched us into the war. By the time it ended World War II had consumed over 52 million people (http://www.historyplace.com/worldwar2/timeline/statistics.htm).

One has to wonder how history would have differed if the free nations of the world had the courage and fortitude to preempt these regimes (Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany).

The United Nations has imposed restrictions of Iran’s atomic program in an attempt to preclude their development of nuclear weapons.

The Iranian government has chosen to disregard the restrictions and resume their research.

Now we are wondering what to do about the Jihadists in Iran.

This situation look awfully familiar.

When we put off doing the unpleasant, we may sow seeds for the unthinkable.
Link Posted: 1/10/2006 9:49:40 AM EDT
Bump for the afternoon crew.
Link Posted: 1/10/2006 9:52:11 AM EDT
Arfcom: what say you on this:

Iran's Messianic Menace

Things could get loud and messy soon.
Link Posted: 1/10/2006 9:53:38 AM EDT
I think Carter shoulda nuked em back in '79.


Link Posted: 1/10/2006 9:54:44 AM EDT
Unfortunately, it wasn't and isn't up to us.
Link Posted: 1/10/2006 9:54:56 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Merrell:
I think Carter shoulda nuked em back in '79.





I agree, and the neutron bomb was all the rage then. We may have been able to start using the oil by now.
Link Posted: 1/10/2006 9:59:39 AM EDT
The main question is what happens if we allow these events to continue unchecked?

I don't have a crystal ball, but I've read a bit of history and possess a little bit of common sense.
Link Posted: 1/10/2006 10:02:41 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Brohawk:
The main question is what happens if we allow these events to continue unchecked?

I don't have a crystal ball, but I've read a bit of history and possess a little bit of common sense.



It's a liberal's wet dream: They have discovered that they can indeed have it both ways. They can ignore major menaces (Iraq, North Korea, Iran) for years, and then when a Republican is in power, they whine about him taking care of what needed to be done all along.

Same will happen with Iran. Or worse: They'll say Bush caused this with "his" Iraq war.

It's a horrible Catch-22 to be a conservative in a time when the media is basically a talk machine for the liberals.
Link Posted: 1/10/2006 10:31:34 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/10/2006 10:32:21 AM EDT by Coolio]
Okay, Brohawk, here goes.
First this caveat: Amateurs discuss tactics, rank amateurs discuss grand stratagy, professionals discuss logistics.

So, from the keyboard of a rank amateur:

The key to the whole mess is Iraq. Iraq has always been the key to power and control in the Middle East for over four thousand years.

Worst case senario: Mortal enemies; Saddam Hussein's Iraq and the radical Islamic mullahs in Iran become locked in a nuclear arms race.

Worst case senario avoided by G.W., 2003.

So the remaining problem is how does one contain or neutralize Iran? Well, if one looks at the current geopolitical map, the U.S. (and by extension; the West) has "friendlies" in Afghanistan, the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, hopefully in the near future; Iraq, Turkey. Guess who is in the middle? Iran? Gee, how did THAT happen?

None of this can work if we can't get a reasonably friendly government in place in Iraq. It's pretty much that simple.

If we don't succeed there, expect things to go downhill, ultimately to WW IV (WW III part two).


Link Posted: 1/10/2006 10:44:22 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Coolio:
First this caveat: Amateurs discuss tactics, rank amateurs discuss grand stratagy, professionals discuss logistics.


I'm not a professional, but I'm pretty sure we don't have the resources, capability, or political will to wage war with Iran in the near future.

Not pre-emptively, anyway.
Link Posted: 1/10/2006 11:17:21 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Coolio:

So the remaining problem is how does one contain or neutralize Iran? Well, if one looks at the current geopolitical map, the U.S. (and by extension; the West) has "friendlies" in Afghanistan, the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, hopefully in the near future; Iraq, Turkey. Guess who is in the middle? Iran? Gee, how did THAT happen?

None of this can work if we can't get a reasonably friendly government in place in Iraq. It's pretty much that simple.

If we don't succeed there, expect things to go downhill, ultimately to WW IV (WW III part two).




That sure is "interesting" when you look at it on the map.

The big question is whether acting in the next year or letting the situation go has a bigger price tag.
Link Posted: 1/10/2006 11:18:30 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin:

Originally Posted By Coolio:
First this caveat: Amateurs discuss tactics, rank amateurs discuss grand stratagy, professionals discuss logistics.


I'm not a professional, but I'm pretty sure we don't have the resources, capability, or political will to wage war with Iran in the near future.

Not pre-emptively, anyway.



For sure, we have our hands full at the moment. Knowledge of that has emboldened the folks in Tehran.
Link Posted: 1/10/2006 11:19:52 AM EDT
We have to also consider the character and goals of those in charge of that regime.

What if they actually believe nuking TelAviv would hasten the coming of their messiah, or some other apocalyptic goal?
Link Posted: 1/10/2006 11:19:58 AM EDT
I'm thinking that from March through May will be very interesting. The new leader of Israel will likely go after Iran's nukes with our blessings, and we'll see Russia and China chime in at some point.

JMHO

HH
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