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Quoted: I would expect Sprint or Qwest to also drop out of the picture within a few years.
G
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Based on what, exactly?
I work in wireless, what would make you say anything like that? Do you have any experience in the industry? With an attitude like that, you must work for Verizon - they're pretty arrogant.
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Actually, yes I do work in the industry and not for an RBOC. If you understand VoIP, the fixed line business, wireless and International long distance charges you could conclude that there is really only room for two or three players in any telecom market. In the US I expect Verizon and SBC/AT&T to be the major players and the Sprint/Qwest/Tmobile tier to consolidate. The FCC probably won't let one of the big two buy them so they have little other choice. Vonage can't go public because investors don't want a cash-hungry business with little upside. The same limitations will apply to the other non-fixed line carriers.
The fixed line business is a huge cash machine for the operators that have residential and business customers. What revenue drivers to the second tier operators have? Nothing that compares and in the end the big two will be able to or already do offer, the exact same "add-ons" that are currently offered by the second tier players. Snacking, video, etc. As the fixed line business wanes (baby boomers won't give up "real" telephones but their children will) SBC-ATT/Verizon will have already written off the plant capital to a necessary level to earn a profit on the slim margin wireless business. They'll also have stored up huge cash reserves that will dwarf the "new entrants" and second tier companies.
What will second tier players do when 4G comes along? Will they be able to raise billions in capital to build new plant? No, they will offer less state-of-the-art products and slowly be marginalized by the big two.
Of course, people here still buy 1911 pistols so why do I bother using logic and facts to explain business or economics.
G