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Posted: 1/5/2006 12:36:12 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/5/2006 12:43:00 AM EDT by schv]
This was the headline of two recent articles in Soldier Of Fortune Magazine. The magazine went on to cite several indicators as to a brewing probem in China.

In the late 90's President Clinton made free trade with China a reality. Since then, our trade defecit with China has grown to a projected $200,000,000,000 dollars this year. (thats BILLION for those who don't want to count zeros.) That means China is selling us, $200 billion more that we are selling them.

Recently (August of 2005) China and Russia conducted their first ever, joint military training exercise, termed "Peace Mission 2005". The exercise was described as a counter-terrorism exercise by Soviet and Chinese officals, however airborne assaults, anti-submarine war-fare, along with the use of long range strategic bombers, drew the suspicion of many in the Pentagon. Coupled with the fact the United States was not invited to observe the training, suggests that China may be preparing for a future conflict with the U.S.

China in the last 3 years, with the infusion of hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars, has expanded its military tremendously. Reports state that China has also expanded its nuclear arsenel and now has weapons capable of striking most of the United States. Couple that with a slew of recent Intelligence thefts by Chinese Officals in the United States, and you can draw your own conclusions.

Add to that, the Chinese government (communist), have vowed to retake Taiwan, and the U.S. government has vowed to defend Taiwan from Chinese aggression, and you have a nice pot just starting to boil. Also in the article from SOF, the writer quotes a Chinese General stating that they would use nuclear weapons against the U.S. if we interfered in a Chinese/Taiwan conflict.

With turmoil in the middle east, Iraq, Syria, Iran, etc., and the Israelli prime minister going tits up soon, coupled with Castro not being alive much longer, Chavez in Venezula........this could turn into a very intersesting decade.

Your thoughts?



*the majority of information cited above was from the two articles in SOF Mag. They are worth reading, you can buy them online at www.sofmag.com for 4.95. The 4.95 will give you access to every article written for the last year in Soldier of Fortune.
Link Posted: 1/5/2006 12:39:25 AM EDT
I predict that the growing middle class in China will become dissatisfied with the communists. We'll more likely see a Chinese civil war than a Chinese - U.S. war.
Link Posted: 1/5/2006 12:48:09 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Sukebe:
I predict that the growing middle class in China will become dissatisfied with the communists. We'll more likely see a Chinese civil war than a Chinese - U.S. war.



That's probably a more likely scenario.........but I always have to wonder, how many nations do we have to piss off at one time before we get ourselves into a global conflict, fighting multiple nations at once. At this point, we could have a portion of South and Central America, the Middle East, Asia, and possibly the former Soviet Union all taking swings at us for our involvement in their affairs.

It's kinda like the big kid on the block......if one or two guys step up and fight him, no big deal. If 5 or 6 get up........then he is no longer the big kid on the block.
Link Posted: 1/5/2006 12:54:27 AM EDT

Originally Posted By schv:

Originally Posted By Sukebe:
I predict that the growing middle class in China will become dissatisfied with the communists. We'll more likely see a Chinese civil war than a Chinese - U.S. war.



That's probably a more likely scenario.........but I always have to wonder, how many nations do we have to piss off at one time before we get ourselves into a global conflict, fighting multiple nations at once. At this point, we could have a portion of South and Central America, the Middle East, Asia, and possibly the former Soviet Union all taking swings at us for our involvement in their affairs.

It's kinda like the big kid on the block......if one or two guys step up and fight him, no big deal. If 5 or 6 get up........then he is no longer the big kid on the block.



That's why we keep the nuclear option. I doubt our security will ever be overtly threatened by another nation state again. If we couldn't crush them conventionally, we would nuke them if it meant our national survival. Terrorists on the other hand are at this time, really nothing more than flies that need swatted. That will change when they aquire WMD's. That's the real threat.
Link Posted: 1/5/2006 1:05:59 AM EDT
at least, not before the Beijing Olympics
Link Posted: 1/5/2006 1:06:36 AM EDT
America's next war? The war's been on for quite some time. And we've already lost.

look at how much crap we rely on China for. This ain't Canada or Mexico, this is fricken China...our biggest enemy.
Link Posted: 1/5/2006 1:15:53 AM EDT

Originally Posted By schv:

Originally Posted By Sukebe:
I predict that the growing middle class in China will become dissatisfied with the communists. We'll more likely see a Chinese civil war than a Chinese - U.S. war.



That's probably a more likely scenario.........but I always have to wonder, how many nations do we have to piss off at one time before we get ourselves into a global conflict, fighting multiple nations at once. At this point, we could have a portion of South and Central America, the Middle East, Asia, and possibly the former Soviet Union all taking swings at us for our involvement in their affairs.

It's kinda like the big kid on the block......if one or two guys step up and fight him, no big deal. If 5 or 6 get up........then he is no longer the big kid on the block.



I agree, except that countries that suffer from big internal problems tend to externalise. China has large and growing internal problems, and having been thumping the nationalist drum pretty hard lately. I have no doubt whatsoever that China would start a foreign war to maintain internal stablitlty.

Interesting decade? You betcha. America is not well liked O/S at the moment, mainly in countries that have bought into this whole touchy-feely group-hug liberal internationalist thing. On top of that, when the rest of the world sees the U.S., they see a teetering giant (whether its true or not). Over stretched, over committed, in massive amounts of debt to the rest of the world, completly riven by internal political differences and led by a guy with a room temperature IQ, it is supposed that it is only a matter of time before you come crashing down. If the perception of weakness is there, no matter how false, then that perceived weakness WILL be taken advantage of. Look at Iran. Ahmadinijad knows that that U.S. cannot afford a war with Iran over nukes. Otherwise, he wouldn't be playing this game. Historically, the USSR is the best example. When the world though that they were invincible, no one dare challenge them. Then a bunch of Afghans showed that the USSR wasnt so tough after all. Once the cat was out of the bag, there was no stopping the breakup of the Soviet Union. The loss in Afghanistan was a major contributing factor to the USSRs demise.

In order to forstall another decade or two of war with every rouge tinpot excuse for a country, and a few big ones as well, the U.S. needs to suceed in Iraq and Afghanistan, and quickly. On top of which, those to places have to be seen to be working without the U.S. propping them up. Unfortunatly, the U.S. really is so torn apart by political differences that I don't think that, at the end of the day, it really matters how successful U.S. forces are, the home front may not ever be won. The media is against you, most of academia is against you, Hollywood and the music industry (vastly underrated as key opinion makers whether you realise it or not) are against you, and the schools are against you. If those that disseminate the news teach and form the opinions that most people unthinkinly digest and regurgitate are against you succeeding, then its something of an uphill battle. We have the same problem here

Link Posted: 1/5/2006 1:21:10 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Sukebe:

Originally Posted By schv:

Originally Posted By Sukebe:
I predict that the growing middle class in China will become dissatisfied with the communists. We'll more likely see a Chinese civil war than a Chinese - U.S. war.



That's probably a more likely scenario.........but I always have to wonder, how many nations do we have to piss off at one time before we get ourselves into a global conflict, fighting multiple nations at once. At this point, we could have a portion of South and Central America, the Middle East, Asia, and possibly the former Soviet Union all taking swings at us for our involvement in their affairs.

It's kinda like the big kid on the block......if one or two guys step up and fight him, no big deal. If 5 or 6 get up........then he is no longer the big kid on the block.



That's why we keep the nuclear option. I doubt our security will ever be overtly threatened by another nation state again. If we couldn't crush them conventionally, we would nuke them if it meant our national survival. Terrorists on the other hand are at this time, really nothing more than flies that need swatted. That will change when they aquire WMD's. That's the real threat.



You make a very good point, but I don't think the nuclear option is now, or ever will be, an option again. I don't think the American people could stomach another Hiroshima or Nagasaki. Don't get me wrong, if the Red Army was marching into D.C., then I think the American people would be all for the nuclear option, but I don't think they would ever let it get that far. I think if we were involved in another conflict that did not directly involve a threat to the U.S. i.e. killing of american citizens or troops on our soil, then the political pressure to pull out is going to be too strong to take it that far.

I feel like our nation is starting to go back down the path of isolationism that we were on prior to WWII. The one that allowed Hitler and the Axis to gain so much power prior to our involvement. I don't think, the American people would be willing to commit anymore troops to another overseas operation.

If this happens, history will repeat itself and another Hitler (possibly China) will rise to power and run unchecked until he/they are knocking on our door........and it may be too late this time.


The real terrorist threat to our nation is not from anything tangible like bombs or poison......it is our own government and people who, driven by fear, will turn us into a place devoid of all freedom.

We have had a reduction in freedom since 9/11.......and if we get hit with any more attacks, especially if they are in a midwestern city or small town, previously thought of as "safe", I think the panic of the people and government would have us under marshall law............which is the whole point of terrorism. Bin Laden and his boys know they will never have the power to take us head-to-head, they want us to do the work for them.
Link Posted: 1/5/2006 1:26:18 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Lert:


I agree, except that countries that suffer from big internal problems tend to externalise. China has large and growing internal problems, and having been thumping the nationalist drum pretty hard lately. I have no doubt whatsoever that China would start a foreign war to maintain internal stablitlty.

Interesting decade? You betcha. America is not well liked O/S at the moment, mainly in countries that have bought into this whole touchy-feely group-hug liberal internationalist thing. On top of that, when the rest of the world sees the U.S., they see a teetering giant (whether its true or not). Over stretched, over committed, in massive amounts of debt to the rest of the world, completly riven by internal political differences and led by a guy with a room temperature IQ, it is supposed that it is only a matter of time before you come crashing down. If the perception of weakness is there, no matter how false, then that perceived weakness WILL be taken advantage of. Look at Iran. Ahmadinijad knows that that U.S. cannot afford a war with Iran over nukes. Otherwise, he wouldn't be playing this game. Historically, the USSR is the best example. When the world though that they were invincible, no one dare challenge them. Then a bunch of Afghans showed that the USSR wasnt so tough after all. Once the cat was out of the bag, there was no stopping the breakup of the Soviet Union. The loss in Afghanistan was a major contributing factor to the USSRs demise.

In order to forstall another decade or two of war with every rouge tinpot excuse for a country, and a few big ones as well, the U.S. needs to suceed in Iraq and Afghanistan, and quickly. On top of which, those to places have to be seen to be working without the U.S. propping them up. Unfortunatly, the U.S. really is so torn apart by political differences that I don't think that, at the end of the day, it really matters how successful U.S. forces are, the home front may not ever be won. The media is against you, most of academia is against you, Hollywood and the music industry (vastly underrated as key opinion makers whether you realise it or not) are against you, and the schools are against you. If those that disseminate the news teach and form the opinions that most people unthinkinly digest and regurgitate are against you succeeding, then its something of an uphill battle. We have the same problem here




Outstanding........you were able to articulate perfectly what I have in my head. I thank you for a very intelligent and well written response. I agree 100%
Link Posted: 1/5/2006 1:47:20 AM EDT
With 800 MILLION farmers, on the bottom of the economic ladder......and unemployment running in the higher, than our own population; and a new generation growing up as a middle class and knowing the outside world through the internet........I doubt it.

CCP......will fall to the mighty dollar.
Link Posted: 1/5/2006 1:57:17 AM EDT

Originally Posted By schv:

Outstanding........you were able to articulate perfectly what I have in my head. I thank you for a very intelligent and well written response. I agree 100%



And thankyou for your kind response
Link Posted: 1/5/2006 2:04:05 AM EDT
The Zombies will get us long before then.
Link Posted: 1/5/2006 2:08:28 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/5/2006 2:14:03 AM EDT by ToddB]
This has been a very well thought and debated thread so far. I tend to agree that the next 10 yrs (more likely 5 yrs) are going to be very dangerous times. Iran and Syria are 2 more factions that seem to be also stirring the pot . I think we are going to have to deal with both of them very soon. When we are sufficiently embroiled with them, I predict China will move on Tawain. China knows our military is stretched very thin currently, another conflict won't leave much to stop China's move.

China is facing a similar problem Japan faced in the 1930's, they need oil badly. Their demand for oil has surged tremendously, as of late. This has lead to its new focus on a modern Navy, with carriers, ballistic subs, Aegis cruisers (thank-you Mr. Clinton and Mr. Gore, I hope the campaign contributions helped), etc... Hardware like that is built for expansion.


Japan is extremely worried about China and North Korea and is currently debating a change from the current small defense force only posture (and let America handle the rest), to a new military capable of offensive action. They have already removed the policy forbidding our nuclear powered vessels from entering Japanese waters.

Very dangerous times indeed. Another thought to consider is if the draft will need to be reinstated. I don't think so yet, but I see it around the corner.

Todd
Link Posted: 1/5/2006 2:26:42 AM EDT

Originally Posted By schv:
Your thoughts?



You should stop reading SOF.
Link Posted: 1/5/2006 2:55:20 AM EDT
The PLA is preparing for it while we fill our houses with Chinese-made products.

Link Posted: 1/5/2006 6:32:39 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/5/2006 6:33:57 AM EDT by Sukebe]

Originally Posted By Lert:

Interesting decade? You betcha. America is not well liked O/S at the moment, mainly in countries that have bought into this whole touchy-feely group-hug liberal internationalist thing. On top of that, when the rest of the world sees the U.S., they see a teetering giant (whether its true or not). Over stretched, over committed, in massive amounts of debt to the rest of the world, completly riven by internal political differences and led by a guy with a room temperature IQ, it is supposed that it is only a matter of time before you come crashing down. If the perception of weakness is there, no matter how false, then that perceived weakness WILL be taken advantage of. Look at Iran. Ahmadinijad knows that that U.S. cannot afford a war with Iran over nukes. Otherwise, he wouldn't be playing this game. Historically, the USSR is the best example. When the world though that they were invincible, no one dare challenge them. Then a bunch of Afghans showed that the USSR wasnt so tough after all. Once the cat was out of the bag, there was no stopping the breakup of the Soviet Union. The loss in Afghanistan was a major contributing factor to the USSRs demise.




You are aware that the Afgahn Mujahadeen had no hope of ever dislodging the Soviets until we trained them, armed them and funded them? The United States (CIA) defeated the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. The Mujahadeen were just our instrument. It most certainly was the beginning of the end of the evil empire but it hardly came at the hands of a bunch of backward, illiterate dirt farmers.
Link Posted: 1/5/2006 6:41:30 AM EDT
I hope so, I havent been practicing on prairie dogs for nothing.
Link Posted: 1/5/2006 6:50:43 AM EDT
it is very posible we go to war with china...however i think north korea would be just as likley..the chinese would back them to the fathest extent also....it would turn into a world war....the u.n. having the side of the us,and the korean/chinese would have a good chunk of asia.....the only thing that it would ultimetly come down to is,where does russia stand?....russia and china may be doing military exersizes together......but i find it hard to beleive that russia would side with china over the u.n. and all of their money.....
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