Warning

 

Close

Confirm Action

Are you sure you wish to do this?

Confirm Cancel
Member Login
Posted: 1/4/2006 5:38:34 AM EDT
Excellent article on what is happening in regards to Islam and the demographics of the world. Shows what the future may bring. The article is fairly long, so I just put some excerpts here for discussion.

www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110007760

It's the Demography, Stupid
The real reason the West is in danger of extinction.

BY MARK STEYN
Wednesday, January 4, 2006 12:01 a.m.

<snip>

The problem is that secondary-impulse societies mistake their weaknesses for strengths--or, at any rate, virtues--and that's why they're proving so feeble at dealing with a primal force like Islam.

Speaking of which, if we are at war--and half the American people and significantly higher percentages in Britain, Canada and Europe don't accept that proposition--than what exactly is the war about?

We know it's not really a "war on terror." Nor is it, at heart, a war against Islam, or even "radical Islam." The Muslim faith, whatever its merits for the believers, is a problematic business for the rest of us. There are many trouble spots around the world, but as a general rule, it's easy to make an educated guess at one of the participants: Muslims vs. Jews in "Palestine," Muslims vs. Hindus in Kashmir, Muslims vs. Christians in Africa, Muslims vs. Buddhists in Thailand, Muslims vs. Russians in the Caucasus, Muslims vs. backpacking tourists in Bali. Like the environmentalists, these guys think globally but act locally.

Yet while Islamism is the enemy, it's not what this thing's about. Radical Islam is an opportunistic infection, like AIDS: It's not the HIV that kills you, it's the pneumonia you get when your body's too weak to fight it off. When the jihadists engage with the U.S. military, they lose--as they did in Afghanistan and Iraq. If this were like World War I with those fellows in one trench and us in ours facing them over some boggy piece of terrain, it would be over very quickly. Which the smarter Islamists have figured out. They know they can never win on the battlefield, but they figure there's an excellent chance they can drag things out until Western civilization collapses in on itself and Islam inherits by default.

That's what the war's about: our lack of civilizational confidence. As a famous Arnold Toynbee quote puts it: "Civilizations die from suicide, not murder"--as can be seen throughout much of "the Western world" right now. The progressive agenda--lavish social welfare, abortion, secularism, multiculturalism--is collectively the real suicide bomb. Take multiculturalism. The great thing about multiculturalism is that it doesn't involve knowing anything about other cultures--the capital of Bhutan, the principal exports of Malawi, who cares? All it requires is feeling good about other cultures. It's fundamentally a fraud, and I would argue was subliminally accepted on that basis. Most adherents to the idea that all cultures are equal don't want to live in anything but an advanced Western society. Multiculturalism means your kid has to learn some wretched native dirge for the school holiday concert instead of getting to sing "Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer" or that your holistic masseuse uses techniques developed from Native American spirituality, but not that you or anyone you care about should have to live in an African or Native American society. It's a quintessential piece of progressive humbug.
<snip>
None of these things happened. In fact, quite the opposite is happening. We're pretty much awash in resources, but we're running out of people--the one truly indispensable resource, without which none of the others matter. Russia's the most obvious example: it's the largest country on earth, it's full of natural resources, and yet it's dying--its population is falling calamitously.
The default mode of our elites is that anything that happens--from terrorism to tsunamis--can be understood only as deriving from the perniciousness of Western civilization. As Jean-Francois Revel wrote, "Clearly, a civilization that feels guilty for everything it is and does will lack the energy and conviction to defend itself."
<snip>
Well, here's my prediction for 2032: unless we change our ways the world faces a future . . . where the environment will look pretty darn good. If you're a tree or a rock, you'll be living in clover. It's the Italians and the Swedes who'll be facing extinction and the loss of their natural habitat.

<snip>
What's the better bet? A globalization that exports cheeseburgers and pop songs or a globalization that exports the fiercest aspects of its culture? When it comes to forecasting the future, the birthrate is the nearest thing to hard numbers. If only a million babies are born in 2006, it's hard to have two million adults enter the workforce in 2026 (or 2033, or 2037, or whenever they get around to finishing their Anger Management and Queer Studies degrees). And the hard data on babies around the Western world is that they're running out a lot faster than the oil is. "Replacement" fertility rate--i.e., the number you need for merely a stable population, not getting any bigger, not getting any smaller--is 2.1 babies per woman. Some countries are well above that: the global fertility leader, Somalia, is 6.91, Niger 6.83, Afghanistan 6.78, Yemen 6.75. Notice what those nations have in common?
Scroll way down to the bottom of the Hot One Hundred top breeders and you'll eventually find the United States, hovering just at replacement rate with 2.07 births per woman. Ireland is 1.87, New Zealand 1.79, Australia 1.76. But Canada's fertility rate is down to 1.5, well below replacement rate; Germany and Austria are at 1.3, the brink of the death spiral; Russia and Italy are at 1.2; Spain 1.1, about half replacement rate. That's to say, Spain's population is halving every generation. By 2050, Italy's population will have fallen by 22%, Bulgaria's by 36%, Estonia's by 52%. In America, demographic trends suggest that the blue states ought to apply for honorary membership of the EU: In the 2004 election, John Kerry won the 16 with the lowest birthrates; George W. Bush took 25 of the 26 states with the highest. By 2050, there will be 100 million fewer Europeans, 100 million more Americans--and mostly red-state Americans.
<snip>

And yet the world is utterly altered. Just to recap those bald statistics: In 1970, the developed world had twice as big a share of the global population as the Muslim world: 30% to 15%. By 2000, they were the same: each had about 20%.

And by 2020?

So the world's people are a lot more Islamic than they were back then and a lot less "Western." Europe is significantly more Islamic, having taken in during that period some 20 million Muslims (officially)--or the equivalents of the populations of four European Union countries (Ireland, Belgium, Denmark and Estonia). Islam is the fastest-growing religion in the West: In the U.K., more Muslims than Christians attend religious services each week.

Can these trends continue for another 30 years without having consequences? Europe by the end of this century will be a continent after the neutron bomb: The grand buildings will still be standing, but the people who built them will be gone. We are living through a remarkable period: the self-extinction of the races who, for good or ill, shaped the modern world.

<snip>
To avoid collapse, European nations will need to take in immigrants at a rate no stable society has ever attempted. The CIA is predicting the EU will collapse by 2020. Given that the CIA's got pretty much everything wrong for half a century, that would suggest the EU is a shoo-in to be the colossus of the new millennium. But even a flop spook is right twice a generation. If anything, the date of EU collapse is rather a cautious estimate. It seems more likely that within the next couple of European election cycles, the internal contradictions of the EU will manifest themselves in the usual way, and that by 2010 we'll be watching burning buildings, street riots and assassinations on American network news every night. Even if they avoid that, the idea of a childless Europe ever rivaling America militarily or economically is laughable. Sometime this century there will be 500 million Americans, and what's left in Europe will either be very old or very Muslim. Japan faces the same problem: Its population is already in absolute decline, the first gentle slope of a death spiral it will be unlikely ever to climb out of. Will Japan be an economic powerhouse if it's populated by Koreans and Filipinos? Very possibly. Will Germany if it's populated by Algerians? That's a trickier proposition.

Best-case scenario? The Continent winds up as Vienna with Swedish tax rates.

Worst-case scenario: Sharia, circa 2040; semi-Sharia, a lot sooner--and we're already seeing a drift in that direction.


According to a poll taken in 2004, over 60% of British Muslims want to live under Shariah--in the United Kingdom. If a population "at odds with the modern world" is the fastest-breeding group on the planet--if there are more Muslim nations, more fundamentalist Muslims within those nations, more and more Muslims within non-Muslim nations, and more and more Muslims represented in more and more transnational institutions--how safe a bet is the survival of the "modern world"?

Not good.

"What do you leave behind?" asked Tony Blair. There will only be very few and very old ethnic Germans and French and Italians by the midpoint of this century. What will they leave behind? Territories that happen to bear their names and keep up some of the old buildings? Or will the dying European races understand that the only legacy that matters is whether the peoples who will live in those lands after them are reconciled to pluralist, liberal democracy? It's the demography, stupid. And, if they can't muster the will to change course, then "What do you leave behind?" is the only question that matters.

Mr. Steyn is a syndicated columnist and theater critic for The New Criterion, in whose January issue this article appears.


Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Link Posted: 1/4/2006 5:46:51 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/4/2006 5:48:27 AM EDT by fight4yourrights]
The Death of the West: How Dying Populations and Immigrant Invasions Imperil Our Country and Civilization





"Historians may one day call `the pill' the suicide tablet of the West," writes former presidential candidate Buchanan in this cri de coeur regarding the perils that await Western civilization. And he is correct in his assessment that the advent of artificial contraception brought about huge changes in the ways American and European cultures dealt with sex, children and family. Buchanan, a staunch Roman Catholic and a conservative, feels that these changes were socially and politically disastrous. Worried about the declining birth rate of European-Americans and increased immigration from nonwhite countries, Buchanan predicts that people who are now celebrating diversity "will spend their golden years in a Third World America." Along with shifting racial demographics, Buchanan also frets about the changes in morality "rampant promiscuity and wholesale divorce and tax-payer funding of abortion." Buchanan is equally upfront about his position on homosexuality: "had the killers of Matthew Shepard chosen a sixteen-year-old girl rather than a twenty-one-year-old gay man, her rape-murder would have been to me an even greater evil." Fearful that American is being "de-Christianized," Buchanan argues that "while the prognosis is not good," America must reevaluate itself and reclaim its white, Christian origins; despite the current "coarseness of her manners, the decadence of her culture, or the sickness in her soul," the nation is worth saving. Buchanan's passionately expressed ideology will be too extreme for most readers, and its proud bigotry is unlikely to play well even among most conservatives.



The West's Last Chance: Will We Win the Clash of Civilizations?




The Nazis failed to take over Europe, but Militant Islam might The West, says author Tony Blankley in this shocking new book, is down to its last chance. Within our lifetimes, Europe could become Eurabia: a continent overwhelmed by militant Islam that poses a greater threat to the United States than even Nazi Germany did. In The West’s Last Chance, Blankley shows how that could happen—and what we must do to prevent it. In The West’s Last Chance, you’ll learn: · What really happens if Islamist terrorists acquire weapons of mass destruction—it’s worse, and more likely, than you think · How Europe is already well on its way to being a launching pad for Islamist terrorism · Why Europe’s plummeting birthrates could wreak huge upheavals on the Continent—and how the United States could face a similar fate · What’s holding our government back from fighting the Islamist threat to the best of its ability · Why the U.S. has ignored the lessons of World War II—lessons that could hold the secret to winning the War on Terror · How liberalism degenerated from the war-winning policies of FDR to an ideology of Western suicide Tony Blankley asks the hard questions—and gives the straight answers—that our country needs to hear. Frightening, provocative, and instructive, The West’s Last Chance is the most important political book of the year. It will change the way we think about—and fight—the War on Terror.

Link Posted: 1/4/2006 5:51:49 AM EDT
Link Posted: 1/4/2006 5:58:11 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Paul:
They were saying the same thing in the 90s and it never happened. Back then it was huge numbers of Chinese immigrants coming into California that had everyone up in arms. Talk about how their huge population was changing everything good about America. But then in the 1890s we didn't have the Internet so you're going to have to find newspapers from the era.



Yeah, that might be true, but unless it is stopped, this will happen. The Chinese thing was a localized event.

This is a worldwide connected effort. Look at what is happening in Europe, look at the islamic population in this country. Look back at history to see how they operate. They infiltrate an area, living in relative "peace" until the get the numbers, and then whammo...it becomes a muslim enclave.

People who think this isn't a war against all "non-believers" perpetrated by islam need to wake up, at least be aware of the possibilities. I love the way people foam at the mouth when anything "nazi" comes up, yet launch into the old RoP defense anytime anyone mentions islam....

Wake up people, smell the jihad....
Link Posted: 1/4/2006 6:40:47 AM EDT
"Buchanan's passionately expressed ideology will be too extreme for most readers, and its proud bigotry is unlikely to play well even among most conservatives."

This is why we are failing. The religion of Political Correctness has infected the land. To state the obvious, such as "America is a white christian nation", does nothing more than bring indignant rebuttals from our fellow co-nationals.

I wonder if anyone would protest the statement, "Saudi Arabia is an islamic arab country"?
Link Posted: 1/4/2006 7:43:36 AM EDT
Excellent article - hits the nail on the head. There really is no contest between a culture that sees all others as equal to or better than itself, and one whose stated goal is conversion or elimination of all others.
Link Posted: 1/4/2006 7:51:01 AM EDT
The Jihad is back, using democracy to conquer democracy, rather than the sword.

If these trends continue the world (and this country) will look very different to our grandchildren.
Link Posted: 1/4/2006 7:58:22 AM EDT
Tagged
Link Posted: 1/4/2006 8:02:18 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Brohawk:
The Jihad is back, using democracy to conquer democracy, rather than the sword.




Was it Lenin who said "When we hang the last capitalist it will be with the rope he gave us"?

Democracy and political correctness will be the end of our way of life.

And in all fairness, the Jihadists are using both.
Link Posted: 1/4/2006 8:08:48 AM EDT
Actually I believe Western culture will convert the Islamists. Right now Islam is very popular, but just as Christianity is losing ground in the West, radical Islam will lose ground.

Remember the 9/11 terrorists visited strip clubs before boarding the aircraft. The decadent West will beat Islam just like it beat the Communists.
Link Posted: 1/4/2006 8:12:50 AM EDT

If these trends continue the world (and this country) will look very different to our grandchildren.


That's why I'm not having any kids!
Link Posted: 1/4/2006 8:13:12 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/4/2006 8:15:20 AM EDT by motown_steve]

Originally Posted By Paul:
They were saying the same thing in the 90s and it never happened. Back then it was huge numbers of Chinese immigrants coming into California that had everyone up in arms. Talk about how their huge population was changing everything good about America. But then in the 1890s we didn't have the Internet so you're going to have to find newspapers from the era.



Demographics change with unfettered immigration, and that is a fact. As of last summer, whites are now a minority in Texas. Analists are projecting that by 2015 the population of Dallas will be 60% hispanic. I already encounter people every single day who don't speak a word of english. In 10 years I won't be able to get around in this city without being able to speak spanish.

The same is true for Michigan and Arabs. I can show you places in Dearborn, MI where all of the signs are in Arabic. I can take you down streets that would make you think you are in the middle east. Thoses Arabs weren't there 50 years ago. I can take you to the city of Hamtramck which 20 years ago was probably 90% Polish catholics, and today you can hear the Islamic call to prayer being blasted through the streets.

The problem with the changing of demographics in this country is very real and cannot be ignored or denied.
Link Posted: 1/4/2006 8:32:40 AM EDT
This thread/article makes me want more guns.

Lots of guns.

With high-capacity magazines and high ROFs.

And bullets the size of freight trains.
Link Posted: 1/4/2006 1:44:51 PM EDT

Originally Posted By SS109:
Actually I believe Western culture will convert the Islamists. Right now Islam is very popular, but just as Christianity is losing ground in the West, radical Islam will lose ground.

Remember the 9/11 terrorists visited strip clubs before boarding the aircraft. The decadent West will beat Islam just like it beat the Communists.



It hasn't converted those living in Australia, England, France, etc.

It will not convert those here in the USA.
Link Posted: 1/5/2006 10:17:23 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Dance:

Originally Posted By SS109:
Actually I believe Western culture will convert the Islamists. Right now Islam is very popular, but just as Christianity is losing ground in the West, radical Islam will lose ground.

Remember the 9/11 terrorists visited strip clubs before boarding the aircraft. The decadent West will beat Islam just like it beat the Communists.



It hasn't converted those living in Australia, England, France, etc.

It will not convert those here in the USA.



From the end of the article:

"According to a poll taken in 2004, over 60% of British Muslims want to live under Shariah-- in the United Kingdom."

It doesn't sound like the decadent West is doing too good of a job.

Remember that the London bombers were second or third generation immigrants that were more radical than their parents - these weren't some guys fresh off the boat who had not been acclimated to Western society.

As for the influence of strip clubs, alcohol, and other forbidden pleasures on the Islamists - they might see a contradiction if they were rational. Then again they have not shown the capacity for reason.
Link Posted: 1/5/2006 10:21:16 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Roland_O_Gilead:
Then again they have not shown the capacity for reason.



Expecting reason from a terrorist is a fruitless enterprise. When terrorists are discovered they need to be milked for intelligence and then exterminated like the dogs they are.
Link Posted: 1/5/2006 10:27:46 AM EDT

I read the entire article, printed it off and gave it to a guy here at work with a similar mindset to my own. Outstanding read. Makes for a very gloomy future.

Link Posted: 1/5/2006 10:30:56 AM EDT
immigration will be THE deciding issue in the coming elections
not even corruption will compare
Link Posted: 1/5/2006 10:31:20 AM EDT
While many don't seem to like Buchanan, he's a brilliant man (if you can get past his preaching).

He's dead on target when it comes to predicting the "death of the west" and how it will happen - and it will happen.

The Political Correctness infection has already spread too far.

CMOS
Link Posted: 1/5/2006 10:40:52 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Dance:


The problem is that secondary-impulse societies mistake their weaknesses for strengths--or, at any rate, virtues--and that's why they're proving so feeble at dealing with a primal force like Islam.




Perhaps the truest think ever said on a message board. So true, in fact, that I doubt this will get past 1 page.
Link Posted: 1/5/2006 1:28:14 PM EDT

Yet while Islamism is the enemy, it's not what this thing's about.

Can't say ANYTHING bad about the RoP!
Top Top