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Posted: 12/31/2005 1:07:52 AM EDT
Okay, say we fight the big kid on the block. We dont go nuke as it's a limited engagement over ....... Korea ( sound familiar?)

I wonder how we'd fare against a modern ( trying anyhow) army, air force, navy? Could their navy stop ours from moving assets into the area? Could their AF go toe to toe with ours?
Are ships/battlegroups actually survivable with modern missile systems?

I assume they have a modernized tank force, any armchair experts pit their stuff against ours?

Would the infantry have much to do other than occupying space?


I see the biggest challenge as logistics. Can we supply our troops in the slugfest with China?

This is bound to happen sooner or later unless they just wait for the US economy to collapse from us constantly sending our money to overseas interests ( Japanese cars and chinese crap )
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 1:17:40 AM EDT
The only thing stopping them is the fact that America is armed,therefore an invasion is not possible.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 1:19:59 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 12/31/2005 1:21:18 AM EDT by Mr45auto]

Originally Posted By HarrySacz:
The only thing stopping them is the fact that America is armed,therefore an invasion is not possible.



Invasion here would not be very likely. No way to get troops here without us sinking them or shooting them down. South Korea on the other hand is very likely. If China takes Taiwan North Korea will move south because we'll likely be busy and not wanting to get tangled up in it. Of course we will do something and that will lead to a major mess. We'll have to slug it out for awhile. I doubt we'd go hands-off in that situation.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 1:59:35 AM EDT
Militarily I think the contest still goes to us, even though their Army is much larger and ours is preoccupied. However, the contest would also be economic. We're really being set up by them. They have bought huge areas of dock space in major US harbors, they currently control the Panama canal, and who knows who/what they have set up to hurt us with here in the event of a conflict. I have heard it said that they own billions in US debt. With that they could crash our currency in a few days just by selling it off all at once.


-K
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 2:37:50 AM EDT
Though it would be a interesting fantasy scenario, the likelihood of a war between China and the US is very small. Most people immediately draw a paralell between China nd the former USSR in their relation to us, but the tuth is aside from superficial commanilities (big ass "communist" states) our relation with the PRC is nothing like the relation with the USSR.

For one, America is the biggest foreign investor in China... followed by Taiwan and Germany. Yeah, the top two investors pouring their money into China are the countries everyone thinks is going to go to war with them!

The only realistic way that China will do anything militarily, is if Taiwan forces its hand by moving publicly towards independence. If you have been following Chinese-Taiwanese politics, you'll see that is close to impossible. Taiwan's current president is part of the opposition "liberal" party that has such retarded aspirations. The nationalist party, the original chinese government which was outsted b Mao Zedong however, is much more realistic, and regaining its popularity due to its conservative nature, in both cross strait politics and views on international trade and business. The leaders of the nationalist party have pretty decent relations with the PRC government, having just this year had historic meetings with the chinese Premier Hu Jintao. Blah blah blah. Anyway, politically, things on the taiwanese strait seem to be headed towards further co-operation and trade. Afterall, industry estimates put ~"40-80%" of Chinese exports as coming from Taiwanese owned factories, haha, and China's growth is obviously export based.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_20/b3933011.htm

Anyway, globalization is more complicated than you assume. While China has America by the balls in regards to government debt, we have them by the balls in terms of our FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) and the fact that we buy most of their crap. Trade is a two way street, if they try to fuck us, we can fuck them just as easily. However, a symbiotic relationship can be easily maintained... unless you are a union auto worker or electrical engineer working on designing computer chips, haha.

About supplying a "fantasy scenario" war against China, you'd have the support of Taiwan, Japan, the Philipines, Thailand, South Korea, and if we paid them enough, even Vietnam! Vietnam and China are NOT friends, having had many "hot" disputes over strategic islands, etc where vietnamese soldiers were slaughtered in cold blood. China also lacks an ability to "project" its power. If it can barely project its power to Taiwan, do you REALLY think they could even dream of "invading" America? Maybe tossing a nuke our way in the absolute worse case scenario, but there will not be a "Red Dawn" type scenario with China, so solliez!
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 2:52:07 AM EDT

Originally Posted By gordon_freeman:
For one, America is the biggest foreign investor in China... followed by Taiwan and Germany. Yeah, the top two investors pouring their money into China are the countries everyone thinks is going to go to war with them!



Not that I think a war with China is imminent, but don't forget that WWI started when the world's most prosperous tradng partners went to war with each other. There were extensive economic ties between France/Great Britain, and Germany/Austo-Hungarian Empire.

As for a hypothetical war with China...what is the objective?

Defend Taiwan? We can do that.

Take China? We can't do that.

*shrug*
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 3:36:48 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Tomislav:

Originally Posted By gordon_freeman:
For one, America is the biggest foreign investor in China... followed by Taiwan and Germany. Yeah, the top two investors pouring their money into China are the countries everyone thinks is going to go to war with them!



Not that I think a war with China is imminent, but don't forget that WWI started when the world's most prosperous tradng partners went to war with each other. There were extensive economic ties between France/Great Britain, and Germany/Austo-Hungarian Empire.

As for a hypothetical war with China...what is the objective?

Defend Taiwan? We can do that.

Take China? We can't do that.

*shrug*




Bring back authentic Chinese AK clones as war trophies?
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 3:46:12 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Special-K:
Militarily I think the contest still goes to us, even though their Army is much larger and ours is preoccupied. However, the contest would also be economic. We're really being set up by them. They have bought huge areas of dock space in major US harbors, they currently control the Panama canal, and who knows who/what they have set up to hurt us with here in the event of a conflict. I have heard it said that they own billions in US debt. With that they could crash our currency in a few days just by selling it off all at once.


-K



FWIW I personally think we'll be fighting the Chinese by 2015 and some of it will be here in the US. Don't flame me folks, it's only my opinion until it becomes reality.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 4:42:11 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 12/31/2005 4:42:49 AM EDT by Mr45auto]
A back door sneaky deal using cargo ships into Mexico or some central american country? Seriously, how would they land troops here without us noticing and sinking them first?

A few thousand troops is doable but not sufficient numbers to make any real trouble.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 4:42:33 AM EDT
There is not going to be a way with the Chinese. The only thing Chinese really value is money. The fact that we are their biggest consumer, it would be bad business to go to war. All the sabre rattling and espionage is simply to gain leverage in the trade department. It is all about money with them.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 4:43:51 AM EDT
Say they move into Russia or other former soviet states, would we defend them if asked?
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 4:55:50 AM EDT
UH, you guys DO understand the concept of Nuclear war don't you? You know, mutually assured destruction? They HAVE rockets that can reach the US so why are we even talking about this? On a list of enemies that are a real threat to us i put China waaaay on the bottom of the list. What real reason is us to fight them? Over Taiwan? What for? the money they spend to retake Taiwan would probably cost more than the whole island combined along with the reconstruction effort of rebuilding after a nuclear war! There is some Bullshit sabre rattling mostly over economics in the continental shelf but that is about it. I like how some people now fear that because China is becoming an economic rival somehow the next step is war.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 4:57:19 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Mr45auto:
Say they move into Russia or other former soviet states, would we defend them if asked?



Probably if it was in our strategic interests to do so. Kinda makes me think of the book "The Bear and the Dragon". In fact, it wouldn't surprise me at all if we went to Russia to give aid. Russia is rich with oil, and I doubt that the United States would want China to gain control over a large portion of the world's oil supply.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 5:10:45 AM EDT
Tag for later.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 5:15:34 AM EDT

Originally Posted By SkyCatII:

Originally Posted By Mr45auto:
Say they move into Russia or other former soviet states, would we defend them if asked?



Probably if it was in our strategic interests to do so. Kinda makes me think of the book "The Bear and the Dragon". In fact, it wouldn't surprise me at all if we went to Russia to give aid. Russia is rich with oil, and I doubt that the United States would want China to gain control over a large portion of the world's oil supply.



There is more chance of a Russia vs China war than a China vs US war.

They share thousands of miles of borders.
China is fueling its industrialization with natural resources that it doesn't have.
Russia, east of the Urals, is full of natural resources.
There are also the CIS states that China wants to gain influence in, and Russia fells jilted because they dont have influece anymore.
While everyone knows the US can beat anyone, at least in a rapid, blitzkrieg type war, no one is sure if all the Russians could even get to the same spot on the map.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 5:18:21 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 12/31/2005 5:23:19 AM EDT by cyclone]
Siberia and it's natural resources would be a natural target for China, but I dont think they want any of those Russian nukes thrown at them anytime soon
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 5:33:43 AM EDT
russia has a lot of oil?
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 6:23:50 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 12/31/2005 6:39:17 AM EDT by Rock7]

Originally Posted By Mr45auto:
A back door sneaky deal using cargo ships into Mexico or some central american country? Seriously, how would they land troops here without us noticing and sinking them first?

A few thousand troops is doable but not sufficient numbers to make any real trouble.



I think that alot of people are underestimating the Chineese, and for that matter, the Arabs. These people are not stupid. They have been fighting wars for hundreds, if not thousands, of years. When you talk about the fact that a land invasion would be impossible, I totally agree. No military on this planet could successfully invade our borders. The scary part is....I think the're already here. Think about it. How many Chineese resturants are there in your town? How many dry cleaners owned by Chineese people? Does your city have a "China Town"? I travel to Germany every year and can tell you that on the flight back more than half the plane is full of Arabs carrying at least 5 huge suitecases each. Thats 1 flight on 1 day. How many come in over the course of a year? You do the math. Fake passports...fake degrees...whatever it takes. "Mohamad, use these papers to get in and get a job. Go to your local gun shop and stock up on guns and ammo. We will contact you when we are ready."..........................................

They are in every city and small town in this country. Keep your eyes open.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 6:38:59 AM EDT
If we were to have conflict with China, it would be over oil and gas. You'll have to throw the Indians in the mix too.

We are nations of oil-suckers and we're not using any less by the day. Oil production will peak someday, if it hasn't begun to already, and nations that live on it will do whatever is necessary to secure supply.

Look for the Chinese to step up their support of insurgents in IRQ, AFG, etc. It's in their interest for us not to be there.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 7:18:50 AM EDT
A non-nuclear confrontation with China is an unlikely scenario.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 7:42:37 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 12/31/2005 7:43:07 AM EDT by zyx5432]
Just as an FYI on the oil, China uses about as much oil per person per year as the U.S. did in the early 1900s (at the early stages of industrialization).

As they move up the curve, the fight will be more and more about incremental oil supplies (and other natural resources). If China consumed as much oil on that same basis as the U.S. does today, we would have to effectively double the current worldwide oil output, which ain't gonna happen.

Link Posted: 12/31/2005 8:29:06 AM EDT
You have got to admit. Now the current world is totally different from what you see one or two decades ago.

The world is flat. Globalization is the future.

US will not have any war with China because they (both contries) live together or die together. That means it is win-win or lose-lose situation. This situation is complicated and comprehensive.

What are US enemies? IMHO, there are two groups - anti-american group and domestic antisocial or racists.

In the future world, you rely on more small combat units to carry out the millitary missions. The conflicts are more frequent and less scale.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 8:50:06 AM EDT

Originally Posted By barkley-addict:
russia has a lot of oil?



Russia has more untapped oil than any country in the world.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 8:55:59 AM EDT
This is all supposing that politicians are always guided by reason and thus can be reasoned with. I'm sure many folk reasoned that since Hitler's Germany had alot of business deals with Stalin's Russia and a land war in asia is impossible to win for the invader....Germany would never, ever, invade Russia.

But in fact, Hitler was not merely nuts, he was a complete loon - but a loon who thought big and thus caught Stalin and his entire country (and world) by complete surprise.

Now had Hitler suddenly become reasonable after the brilliant successes of the invasion and say, let the generals run things from October 1941 onward, they might just have pulled it off by stopping for the winter and regrouping... but his success at one crazy gamble led him to keep gambling crazier and crazier.

Now we're fortunate there isn't an absolute dictator ruling China or Iran but oligarchies. And we're lucky North Korea is a basket case.

Even so, dead enders like North Korea might try to pull the plug on the world by believing their own propaganda of superiority. Iran's nut case might think provoking a nuclear war with us will spark the coming of the 12th imam... completely contrary to all business sense, a rational analysis of what Iran could do for itself with a peaceful coexistence policy...

Crime proves men aren't always motivated by what is rational and in their best interest. Some men stir up trouble perhaps because they're possessed by evil - what else would motivate a complete loser like Marx to promote class warfare? Whip the poor into a frenzy of envy against the rich (actually against anyone having more) for what? Justice? Fairness? war international or domestic was the only likely outcome.

Champeon some racial superiority or cultural superiority ideology which states that the chosen people can only grow if all the rest cede or give way (zero sum mentality) guarantees conflict with all the unwashed or 'inferiors'.

again and again either stupidity or outright insanity has led movements of men to ultimately suicidal campaigns. If we were angels I'd agree that there's no chance of war with China or Iran or Korea or the EU...

But we're not. Eventually there'll be another big war and it'll have alot of irrationality going along with some benefits for some at the expense of the common good.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 9:00:25 AM EDT
I think China is more likely to go at it with Taiwan, Japan or India than with us.

Having said that, they could devastate us at will simply by calling in our debt. They're the biggest purchaser of US dollars by far.
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 9:00:54 AM EDT
"To defeat one's enemy without battle, is the highest art of war."

China will never fire a shot in anger at the US. They wil simply continue to wage economic war against the US, and will sink us financially as soon as they believe they have squeezed us dry.

Toe to toe? It would have to be in Asia somewhere, as China has no means to project force over water. I think the US would take them, but it would be a bloody bitch.

Ops
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 9:02:28 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 12/31/2005 9:02:55 AM EDT by MillerSHO]
I wonder where this link fits into this discussion?

drudgereport.com/flash.htm
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 9:57:31 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 12/31/2005 9:58:20 AM EDT by samsong]

Originally Posted By MillerSHO:
I wonder where this link fits into this discussion?

drudgereport.com/flash.htm



I think it's evidence of China's rise as a Great Power. It is also likely a message to the loudmouth saber rattlers in the Chinese .gov to "cool it, ass hats."

If the Chinese take a little Dale Carnegie and learn how to Win Friends and Influence People, they may eclipse us as world superpower someday. Not through military might, but through genuine likeability (and superior cuisine ).

I sometimes fantasize stupidly about "Chinese PLA invades Northern California and samsong and his merry partners Go West for a little CommiePlinkFest '06".
Link Posted: 12/31/2005 10:19:34 AM EDT
We'll lose.

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